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Democrats trying to unseat each other II

There's a curiosity about the two western-Pennsylvania candidates. They are both running for PA-18, a district that is to be eliminated. I suspect that it will be some rural district that will go, with PA-18 likely becoming PA-17. So we have a BNC candidate vs. a JD candidate. Will one of them drop out as primary election day nears?
 
This is what India Walton is up against: the mayor she unseated running a write-in campaign, Mayor Byron Brown of Buffalo NY. That's worked for some politicians, so it might work here.

Buffalo agency raided by FBI awarded $20 million in grants to Brown campaign donors | Buffalo Politics News | buffalonews.com
  • Millions of dollars in federal funds distributed by the agency went to contributors of Brown’s two most recent campaigns. BURA distributed roughly $35 million in the last eight years, with more than $20 million – 58 percent – going to campaign contributors. Most of the remaining funds went to neighborhood groups and non-profits.
  • Brown campaign contributors have also benefited from the sale of prime city properties near the waterfront and the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus. In some cases, they received exclusive development rights without public bidding.
  • Many of the same developers and consultants who received city contracts gave thousands of dollars to the Brown campaign in the days before his primary defeat to challenger India B. Walton. They have contributed even more to Brown’s write-in campaign.
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However,
Brown says that isn't the case with his donors.

"Donating is absolutely not a condition" of receiving public funds, Brown said in an interview. "We completely don't allow that to occur. People in office raise money – they have to raise money. That’s the system that we have. But there is no correlation to what people give, when they give or even if they don’t give at all to them being able participate in the development process in city government in Buffalo."
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That's like saying "Sure, I took those bribes. But I didn't let them influence me."
 
Big donors to Brown and Walton - Investigative Post
Byron Brown’s usual cast of campaign donors are digging deep to support his write-in campaign for mayor, showering the four-term incumbent with $851,000 since he lost the Democratic primary on June 22 to India Walton.

Brown’s donors include developers and other companies who do business with the city and patronage employees who depend on the mayor for a paycheck. A number of noteworthy Republicans have also donated significant sums.
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Like with Shontel Brown.
 
On IW's side is AOC, who also won a victory against a big-money candidate.

India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "Excited to accompany ⁦@AOC⁩ to the ⁦@CWAUnion⁩ picket line at Mercy Hospital.

As she says, if management can’t guarantee safe staffing ratios because there’s a “shortage” of Registered Nurses and healthcare workers, then supply-and-demand dictates:

Pay better wages! (pix link)" / Twitter

Mary Pasciak on Twitter: "@AOC talking to striking @CWADistrict1 workers at Mercy Hospital in Buffalo (vid link)" / Twitter

SBWorkersUnited on Twitter: "Thank you to @AOC and @Indiawaltonbflo for a very special day! With your help, we will hold Starbucks accountable for their union-busting -- and we will win the first unionized corporate Starbucks in the United States. (pic link)" / Twitter

Mark Ruffalo on Twitter: "We ❤️ @Indiawaltonbflo! (link)" / Twitter
noting
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Asks Buffalo To Elect ‘Badass’ India Walton As Mayor | HuffPost Latest News - "At a rally, the New York congresswoman also framed a Walton victory as important for American democracy."
The New York congresswoman, another political neophyte who defeated an entrenched incumbent in a Democratic primary, cast Walton on Saturday as the latest in a string of insurgent progressive campaigns that began with Ocasio-Cortez’s June 2018 victory. She recalled how many business-friendly Democrats declared her win a “fluke,” but are now pouring resources into defeating Walton.

“Not so much of a fluke anymore is it?” she said.

Ocasio-Cortez emphasized, however, that a Walton victory would further benefit the progressive cause by showing progressives’ ability to competently govern in executive positions, particularly in the kind of “post-industrial city” where the left has yet to gain as much traction.

“It is not enough for us to have victories in legislative bodies,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “We need to show that we can execute. We need to show that we can do the damn thing. We need to show that we can govern in an executive position.”

Later in her remarks, Ocasio-Cortez accused centrist Democrats — who often complain about progressives not rallying behind the party’s candidates — of undermining Democrats’ fight against the “fascist threat” present in the ranks of the Republican Party.

“Any Democrat right now that is trying to establish a precedent of not uniting behind the party’s nominee is playing a dangerous game with our democracy,” she said. “If you, especially as an elected official ― as a Democrat and elected official ― try to go out and undermine your party’s nominee, how can you ever turn around and ask people to support you when you are [the nominee]?”

Ocasio-Cortez also accused Walton’s detractors of unfairly smearing her because she is a Black woman. (Brown is a Black man.)

“I am sick of a Democratic Party that says, ‘Black women are the backbone,’ but they’re not the front,” Ocasio-Cortez said.
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Common Dreams on Twitter: "@aoc and @Indiawaltonbflo joined striking CWA workers on the picket line in Buffalo Saturday after an early voting rally. (link)" / Twitter
noting
'When We Organize, We Win': Ocasio-Cortez Joins India Walton at Rally in Buffalo

Ryan Whalen on Twitter: "There is a huge line for this @AOC ⁦@Indiawaltonbflo⁩ event at Town Ballroom. The line is down the street and around the corner. (vid link)" / Twitter
and
Charlie Baker on Twitter: "The line for the @AOC event for @Indiawaltonbflo is… (vid link)" / Twitter
then
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "See you soon, Buffalo! 👋🏽 It’s time to early vote for @Indiawaltonbflo! 🗳" / Twitter

India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "Just a girl from the Bronx supporting a girl from the East Side♥️ (pic link)" / Twitter - AOC


India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "Look.
@AOC is a working class WoC who ran for office against all odds, defeated a long-time incumbent who ignored her, galvanized first time campaign volunteers, raised money from small dollar donations, and injected a bold vision to politics.

I guess that’s just how we do now! (pic link)" / Twitter

India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "For every single mother struggling to make ends meet, for everyone enduring poverty and abuse, for every Registered Nurse working 12–hour night shifts, for every working class Buffalonian being told they can’t achieve their dreams…

Let’s do this.
Early voting starts now. Vote! (pic link)" / Twitter
 
Both of NY's Senators have now endorsed IW:

Kirsten Gillibrand on Twitter: "I'm proud to endorse @Indiawaltonbflo for Mayor of Buffalo! She's run a truly impressive grassroots campaign and clearly has a heart for public service. And her experience as a working mom and a nurse have prepared her to tackle the challenges facing Buffalo's working families. (pic link)" / Twitter

Chuck Schumer on Twitter: "Today, I endorse @indiawaltonbflo, the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Buffalo. She's a community leader, nurse, & mother with a clear progressive vision for her hometown.

Dems are at our best when we build a big tent & forge inclusive coalitions to fight for everyday people. (pic link)" / Twitter

The race is getting ugly.
India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "The 1st ad Byron Brown released saying I’d fire 100 officers? It was a lie.
The 2nd one? A lie.
The 3rd? A lie.
And his new one, repeating the same debunked claim? Still a lie.
His record: Terrible.
His vision: Nonexistent.
All he has is a big lie. (link)" / Twitter

For her part,
India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "I don’t think everyone having safe, stable, affordable, environmentally friendly housing is too much to ask of our government.
To the contrary, it’s the bare minimum." / Twitter

GOP Meddles In Buffalo Mayoral Race To Help Incumbent Democratic Mayor | HuffPost
Without a partisan of their own on the ballot, top Republicans in Western New York have made no secret of their preference for the business-friendly Brown, with a number of pro-GOP business executives in particular chipping in to help fund his write-in effort.

The Walton campaign revealed at a press conference on Friday that Brown has official Republican Party support as well: The New York Republican State Committee is paying for mailers to Buffalonians that praise Brown and attack Walton.

A double-sided flyer sent to voters that the Walton campaign showed has a pro-Brown message on one side, calling him the “proven, commonsense leader Buffalo needs.”

On the other side of the flyer, the GOP provides a side-by-side comparison of the two candidates and warns that Walton’s “radical agenda will destroy Buffalo.” Walton, the flyer claims, would “defund the police,” “protect violent criminals,” and usher in “economic disaster.”
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Just like they did with Shontel Brown.
 
TV and credit cards said:
I see Biden as doing what he needs to do and appealing to whom he needs to appeal to to get legislation passed. If he has to split the baby between Sanders and Manchin then so be it.
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If it was only the Spendapalooza I could see your point. But Biden has been disappointing in his leftward lurch since the beginning. Now he even wants to tax unrealized capital gains.
 
Derec said:
TV and credit cards said:
I see Biden as doing what he needs to do and appealing to whom he needs to appeal to to get legislation passed. If he has to split the baby between Sanders and Manchin then so be it.
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If it was only the Spendapalooza I could see your point. But Biden has been disappointing in his leftward lurch since the beginning. Now he even wants to tax unrealized capital gains.
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That was Biden’s idea? I haven’t read where it originated. At any rate, it’s getting pushback now as being too cumbersome as some senators call for the original $400k plus which I mention in the infrastructure thread.
 
Derec said:
TV and credit cards said:
I see Biden as doing what he needs to do and appealing to whom he needs to appeal to to get legislation passed. If he has to split the baby between Sanders and Manchin then so be it.
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If it was only the Spendapalooza I could see your point. But Biden has been disappointing in his leftward lurch since the beginning. Now he even wants to tax unrealized capital gains.
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Unrealized gains are taxed quite often. It's called property taxes.

And I don't remember you ever saying anything about Trump's spendapalooza.
 
Something weird: Summer Lee (JD) and Jerry Dickinson (BNC) are running for the same seat, PA-18. Its incumbent, Mike Doyle, is retiring, and PA will be losing a district. So PA-18 will likely be mapped onto PA-17 or whatever other new district approximates it. Will SL and JD keep on running in the same district, or in different districts?

That aside, BNC is now doing a cross-endorsement with JD:
Brand New Congress on Twitter: "Welcome to the BNC 2022 Slate @JCisnerosTX! Jessica is an immigration & human rights attorney running to unseat an anti-choice Democrat. In 2020 she came within 2,800 votes of winning. Let’s help her finish the job in 2022. Split a donation w/BNC & Jessica (link)" / Twitter

Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "It’s an honor to be endorsed by @BrandNew535.

We're fighting to build a more reflective government. A Congress where immigrants, farmworkers, truckers, rancheros, and teachers have a seat at the table.

It’s time South Texas had a real working-class champion. #TX28" / Twitter

If she wins, she will defeat the last anti-abortion Democrat in the House. Marie Newman defeated the second-to-last one last year. I've seen speculation that he, Dan Lipinski, might enter the race to try to reclaim his seat.
 
At last report, Reps. Marie Newman and Sean Casten are being shoved into one district, the new IL-06.

Marie Newman on Twitter: "I’m running for re-election in the #NewIL06. #IL06 ⬇️ (pic link)" / Twitter

Nothing from Rep. Casten, however.

No new candidates for either BNC or JD. The candidates that I'm tracking by minimum number of endorsements:
  • >=0: 220
  • >=1: 70
  • >=2: 29
  • >=3: 12
  • >= 4: 4
The champions: Shervin Aazami CA-30, Brittany Ramos DeBarros NY-11, Nina Turner OH-11, Jessica Cisneros TX-28.

The numbers show an exponential decline, of a factor of about 2.7 at each step.
 
lpetrich said:
Both of NY's Senators have now endorsed IW:

Kirsten Gillibrand on Twitter: "I'm proud to endorse @Indiawaltonbflo for Mayor of Buffalo! She's run a truly impressive grassroots campaign and clearly has a heart for public service. And her experience as a working mom and a nurse have prepared her to tackle the challenges facing Buffalo's working families. (pic link)" / Twitter

Chuck Schumer on Twitter: "Today, I endorse @indiawaltonbflo, the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Buffalo. She's a community leader, nurse, & mother with a clear progressive vision for her hometown.
Dems are at our best when we build a big tent & forge inclusive coalitions to fight for everyday people. (pic link)" / Twitter
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Did not help her. With 68% of precincts reporting, it looks like she is going down.

Could it be that the bloom is off the red carnation?
 
In OH-11, Shontel Brown beat Laverne Gore (R) 78.8% - 21.2%

In FL-20 Brand New Congress candidate Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is at 11,372 votes and her biggest opponent Dale Holness at 11,341. The two have nearly half of the total of 47,830 votes and SCMC is ahead of DH by 31 votes. The rest of the votes are distributed among 9 candidates.

Dale Holness is a protégé of the late Alcee Hastings, the long-time Rep of FL-20 whose death vacated that seat.

That election will likely have a recount.
 
In Buffalo, Mayor Byron Brown has (1) a lot of money and (2) name recognition on his side. As I write this, 68% of the vote has been counted, with India Walton having only 41%. She will need 69% of the remaining vote to overcome this lag, if all the write-in vote is for BB. But some other candidates have entered the race as write-ins, like Benjamin Carlisle, a former Democrat, and they may end up being spoilers for BB.

Election Live: Youngkin Wins Virginia Governor’s Race, Live Video - The New York Times
But in Boston,
Michelle Wu, who entered public service out of frustration with the obstacles that her immigrant family faced, will be the next mayor of Boston, pledging to make the city a proving ground for progressive policy.

Buoyed by support from the city’s young, left-leaning voters and by Black, Asian and Latino residents, Ms. Wu, 36, soundly defeated City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George.

Ms. Essaibi George, who ran as a pragmatic centrist in the style of former Mayor Martin J. Walsh, had the backing of the city’s traditional power centers, like its police, its trade unions and its working-class Irish American neighborhoods.
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MW: 63.6%, AEG: 36.4%
 
Dale Holness has taken the lead over Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick: 11,644 to 11,632, difference 12.

The Buffalo mayor race is now at 92% reporting, with India Walton still with only 41% of the vote and write-ins at 59%.
 
India Walton Concedes to Byron Brown in Buffalo Mayor's Race - The New York Times

India Walton For Buffalo on Twitter: "My statement on last night’s election results, threaded below for accessibility. (pic link)" / Twitter

She conceded that she was not likely to win, but she nevertheless appreciated the campaign that she ran, for what she advocated: "Community Land Trusts, LIFE Camp, and survivor-based restorative justice." She said that she was up against big money and a massive smear campaign, and she noted that the write-in votes tended to come from the richer and whiter parts of the city. Sort of like the campaign against Nina Turner.
After sleeping on last night's results and speaking with my team this morning, I wanted to update you all on the state of the race.

I couldn't be more proud of the campaign we ran. It wasn't just a field program with a messaging strategy attached; it was a deeply felt love letter to the working people of our beautiful city.

This was a special campaign. Our volunteer operation was unprecedented in Buffalo political history. We raised over one million dollars from thousands upon thousands of small dollar donors. We introduced Buffalo to bold, transformative ideas like Community Land Trusts, LIFE Camp, and survivor-based restorative justice, and earned tens of thousands of votes for our vision.

Those votes came from the exact base we set out to organize. The wealthier a district was, the more likely it was to go for a write-in candidate. The districts with more poor people, more Buffalonians of color, and less affordable rents voted for us.

One major accomplishment of ours is ending the era of complacent Buffalo politicians. No longer can they feel confident that they can rest easy in their seats of power. No longer can feel that their offices are safe without having to do anything to improve the lives of their constituents. They now know that, unless they step up for our city, their careers are at risk. We taught them that.

Think of all we had to overcome. The New York State Republican Party leadership went all in against us, and many high profile Democrats declined even to defend us against them. Millions of dollars came pouring in to finance attack ads, personal smears, and racist, sexist fear-mongering. Every dirty trick in the book was tried against us, from draining our resources in legal fees, to playing flagrant lies on a loop, to Republican poll inspectors pre-stamping ballots. The hostility and aggression against us were ugly and relentless, in the streets, in the press, and on social media.

We knew that would be the case. When you take on the corrupt and powerful, you can't expect them to play fair.

We fought as hard as we possibly could. We left everything on the field. And I believe today, as fervently as I ever have, that the hour will come when we will finally draw down power to the everyday people of this city, and build the safe, healthy Buffalo we all need and deserve.
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The Betrayal of India Walton — The Mountain
She started her activist career at the age of twelve when she protested the Rockefeller Drug Laws with her mother as part of the activist group Families Against Mandatory Minimums. From there she became a union representative at 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, executive director of Fruit Belt Community Land Trust, and was a key community organizer during the George Floyd protests.
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The article noted
Socialist India Walton Will Be Buffalo’s Next Mayor
About IW's primary victory against incumbent mayor Byron Brown.
Brown, the incumbent, seemed to think he could defeat Walton by ignoring her campaign. He refused to debate her a single time and outraised her by more than 2-to-1, with a campaign war chest of upward of half a million dollars to Walton’s $150,000. The incumbent’s haul was padded by last-minute contributions from wealthy donors.
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noting
Wealthy last-minute donors to Brown campaign - Investigative Post - "Billionaires and companies doing business with the city are among the contributors who have flooded the mayor's campaign committee with nearly $120,000 the past week"

But the empire struck back.
... The state’s Democratic old guard made their opinions clear about this progressive mom of four who won Buffalo’s primary. State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs compared being obliged to vote for India Walton with being forced to vote for David Duke, the face of the Ku Klux Klan. Many feared her “socialist” policies such as defunding Buffalo’s police or establishing a civilian police oversight board would alienate conservative Democrats and give Republicans fear fodder to harp against the party as a whole. Republicans joined a united front with conservative Democrats to shoot down Walton, one-third of the signatures for Brown’s independent nominating petition were from Republicans. Buffalo’s city council even explored a nuclear option for a Walton victory, the plan being to simply remove the position of mayor from Buffalo.
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lpetrich said:
The Betrayal of India Walton — The Mountain
She started her activist career at the age of twelve when she protested the Rockefeller Drug Laws with her mother as part of the activist group Families Against Mandatory Minimums. From there she became a union representative at 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, executive director of Fruit Belt Community Land Trust, and was a key community organizer during the George Floyd protests.
Click to expand...

The article noted
Socialist India Walton Will Be Buffalo’s Next Mayor
About IW's primary victory against incumbent mayor Byron Brown.
Brown, the incumbent, seemed to think he could defeat Walton by ignoring her campaign. He refused to debate her a single time and outraised her by more than 2-to-1, with a campaign war chest of upward of half a million dollars to Walton’s $150,000. The incumbent’s haul was padded by last-minute contributions from wealthy donors.
Click to expand...
noting
Wealthy last-minute donors to Brown campaign - Investigative Post - "Billionaires and companies doing business with the city are among the contributors who have flooded the mayor's campaign committee with nearly $120,000 the past week"

But the empire struck back.
... The state’s Democratic old guard made their opinions clear about this progressive mom of four who won Buffalo’s primary. State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs compared being obliged to vote for India Walton with being forced to vote for David Duke, the face of the Ku Klux Klan. Many feared her “socialist” policies such as defunding Buffalo’s police or establishing a civilian police oversight board would alienate conservative Democrats and give Republicans fear fodder to harp against the party as a whole. Republicans joined a united front with conservative Democrats to shoot down Walton, one-third of the signatures for Brown’s independent nominating petition were from Republicans. Buffalo’s city council even explored a nuclear option for a Walton victory, the plan being to simply remove the position of mayor from Buffalo.
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Everyone gets to fucking vote. Maybe it is time these "progressives" get the point. Things don't change quickly and anyone running on a platform as such will get resistance from the establishment.
 
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