Democrats trying to unseat each other II

[lpetrich]

Unterscharführerin = feminine of Unterscharführer = a rank in the Nazi German SS militia, lit. "junior squad leader"

How is Summer Lee "extreme and anti-Israel"?

 

[Derec]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Shamefully, AIPAC is working for Republican control of Congress and further destabilization of US democracy.

The Jews are the threat to US democracy. Is that what Unterscharführerin Cortez is trying to insinuate here?
Plenty of organizations support candidates of their choice. Why is AOC singling out AIPAC as "destabilizing" US democracy?

Let’s rally for @SummerForPA. Help her out with a volunteer shift or donation today: (link)" / Twitter

First of all, AIPAC has the right to support the Republican candidate if they like him better than the Democrat.
Had Dems nominated Steve Irwin, rather than the extreme and anti-Israel Summer Lee, things would have been different.

 

[Derec]

Unterscharführerin = feminine of Unterscharführer = a rank in the Nazi German SS militia, lit. "junior squad leader"

Yup. About the equivalent of sergeant, but in Waffen-SS. You get it? She is the leader of the Squad and she always complains about the Jews.

How is Summer Lee "extreme and anti-Israel"?

She is DSA, so we know she is extreme overall.
And she tweeted about how she thinks Israel defending itself from attacks by Palestinian terror groups " (such as rockets from Gaza or stabbing attacks in Jerusalem) "undeniable atrocities".

 

[Derec]

Summer Lee on Twitter: "
Trayvon, a kid, was walking in his own neighborhood, going home.
George didn't like the way he looked and assualted him.
Trayvon fought back with his fists.
George drew a gun and killed him.
American government: "George had a right to defend himself."

This shitty old canard yet again?
1. It wasn't "his own neighborhood". Trayvon was visiting. It was Z's "own neighborhood" though.
2. It was actually Trayvon who didn't like the look of Z. He called him a "creepy-ass cracker". Or is that "creepy ass-cracker"?
3. There is zero evidence that Z assaulted Trayvon and that the latter fought back with his fists. All evidence of physical attack was on Z, not on Trayvon. Which suggests that Trayvon initiated physical violence.
4. The only true part is that Z drew his gun and killed Trayvon. And that it was self-defense.

Summer Lee on Twitter: "When I hear American pols use the refrain "Israel has the right to defend itself" in response to undeniable atrocities on a marginalized pop, I can't help but think of how the west has always justified indiscriminate& disproportionate force &power on weakened & marginalized ppl" / Twitter

That's the same tweet I posted below. I did not know you quoted it here.
Palestinians have many terror groups whose aim is to kill Jews and drive them into the sea.
Of course Israel should defend itself. Bombing a Hamas rocket depot in Gaza or killing an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin are not "undeniable atrocities" and neither is it "indiscriminate and disproportionate force". And Palestinians are anything but marginalized. They have many fans among western Left, precisely because they are in conflict with Israel. Other conflicts do not get nearly as much press because if you can't blame Israel, what's the point?

Inhumanities against the Palestinian ppl cannot be tolerated or justified" / Twitter

Main inhumanity against Palestinian people is by their bloodthirsty and kleptocratic leadership.

That set off some people in Pittsburgh, like a member of a Jewish community organization. He is concerned about her because “she’s endorsed by some people I believe are antisemites, like Rashida Tlaib.” and “Another thing that worried me was her equating the suffering of the Gazans and Palestinians to the suffering of African Americans. That’s one of these intersectional things. If that’s her take on the Middle East, that’s very dangerous.”

He is right.

 

[lpetrich]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Shamefully, AIPAC is working for Republican control of Congress and further destabilization of US democracy.

The Jews are the threat to US democracy. Is that what Unterscharführerin Cortez is trying to insinuate here?

Derec, repeat after me:
AIPAC != the Jewish people
AIPAC != the Jewish people
AIPAC != the Jewish people
...

Plenty of organizations support candidates of their choice. Why is AOC singling out AIPAC as "destabilizing" US democracy?

By supporting Republican election deniers and insurrectionists, and by being willing to spend enormous amounts of money on their preferred candidates.

Derec, think of it this way. Imagine that Hamas was doing what AIPAC does. Or Iran. Or Saudi Arabia. What would you think?

 

[lpetrich]

Unterscharführerin = feminine of Unterscharführer = a rank in the Nazi German SS militia, lit. "junior squad leader"

Yup. About the equivalent of sergeant, but in Waffen-SS. You get it? She is the leader of the Squad and she always complains about the Jews.

"Always complains about the Jews"??? What kind of baseless nonsense is that???

How is Summer Lee "extreme and anti-Israel"?

She is DSA, so we know she is extreme overall.

What makes the DSA so "extreme"?

Issues | Summer Lee For Congress

• Democracy and Voting Rights
• Disability Justice
• Economic Justice & Union Jobs
• Education
• Environmental Justice
• Gun Violence
• Immigration
• Justice Reform
• LGBTQ+ Rights
• Medicare For All
• Reproductive Health, Rights, & Justice

And she tweeted about how she thinks Israel defending itself from attacks by Palestinian terror groups " (such as rockets from Gaza or stabbing attacks in Jerusalem) "undeniable atrocities".

So Hamas is so evil that it's important to act like Hamas?

I'm reminded of Bertrand Russell – Nobel Lecture - NobelPrize.org - "What Desires Are Politically Important?"

He mentions various reasons for hating Communists, and important in this context is "Fourthly, we hate them because they do not allow liberty; this we feel so strongly that we have decided to imitate them."

 

[ZiprHead]

3. There is zero evidence that Z assaulted Trayvon and that the latter fought back with his fists. All evidence of physical attack was on Z, not on Trayvon. Which suggests that Trayvon initiated physical violence.

This is bullshit. Trayvon's GF testified Trayvon was attacked while he was on the phone with her. That's hardly zero evidence.

What there is zero evidence of is that Trayvon assaulted Z. Considering Zimmerman's actions since the incident, it's become quite clear Zimmerman is a violent, racist POS.

 

[lpetrich]

Don’t Look Now But Progressives Are About to Expand Their Ranks in Congress - In These Times

It’s been a rough year for progressives, or so the headlines tell us. Pundits have been quick to elegize the left electoral movement after several high-profile primary defeats in New York, Illinois and Texas. “Left loses momentum.” “Progressives are in danger of losing influence.” Pundits are “seeing limits on the political support for their reformist vision of the country” with this year’s “spate of losses” only the “latest blow to progressive power,” as the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party struggles “to find a winning formula.”

elegize -> eulogize

The jubilant mood at the Vermont senator’s September roundtable with a group of progressive House primary winners, then, might come as a surprise. “The Squad” — the moniker claimed by the troupe of progressive and democratic-socialist insurgents who started elbowing their way into the House in 2018 — is expected to number in the double digits in 2023, with at least four likely inductees poised to safely win blue districts in November. All in all, progressives are set to claim at least six Congressional seats opened up by redistricting and a record number of retirements.

“I was elected to the House and took office in 1991, and I can tell you there was nothing — nothing — like what we will be seeing in Congress next year,” Sanders said.

THE MOST PROGRESSIVES IN CONGRESS EVER (LIVE AT 8PM ET) - YouTube
with guests Greg Casar (TX-35, +38%), Becca Balint (VT-01, +28%), Jonathan Jackson (IL-01, +41%), and Delia Ramirez (IL-03, +39%)

Thanx to the likes of the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

 

[Derec]

Don’t Look Now But Progressives Are About to Expand Their Ranks in Congress - In These Times

Thanx to the likes of the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

 

[Derec]

This is bullshit. Trayvon's GF testified Trayvon was attacked while he was on the phone with her. That's hardly zero evidence.

First of all, she did not see anything, and as to what she may have heard (such as wet grass), she is hardly a disinterested witness.

What there is zero evidence of is that Trayvon assaulted Z.

There were abrasions on Trayvon's knuckles indicating he hit Z, but no such abrasions on Z's knuckles.
That shows that it was Trayvon who hit Z, not the other way around.

Considering Zimmerman's actions since the incident, it's become quite clear Zimmerman is a violent, racist POS.

What evidence of Z's alleged "racism" do you think you have?
And even if he was - even racist have the right to self defense if attacked.

 

[Derec]

"Always complains about the Jews"??? What kind of baseless nonsense is that???

She and the rest of her squad mates attack Israel a lot.

What makes the DSA so "extreme"?

They support actual socialism, i.e. public rather than private control of means of production.

We are socialists because we reject an economic order based on private profit, alienated labor, gross inequalities of wealth and power, discrimination based on race, sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, disability status, age, religion, and national origin, and brutality and violence in defense of the status quo. We are socialists because we share a vision of a humane social order based on popular control of resources and production, economic planning, equitable distribution, feminism, racial equality and non-oppressive relationships.

From the DSA Constitution.
DSA apparatchiks like AOC and Lee do not usually advertise that fact, preferring to play games with the term "socialist".

Issues | Summer Lee For Congress

A campaign website is basically an ad - her handlers will want to put her positions in best possible light. But what about her statements on things like police defunding?

Or abolishing ICE and even borders?

And also prisons.

[to be continued]

 

[Derec]

And I guess "insurrection" was a good word until January 6th too.


She is an extremist alright and DNC needs to disavow her.

So Hamas is so evil that it's important to act like Hamas?

Israel does not act like Hamas. Not even remotely close. It is this kind of false equivalence and blatant lies that progressives are guilty of when it comes to Israel.

 

[lpetrich]

"Few would deny the left electoral movement has suffered major setbacks since Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns."

BS himself losing in 2020 after the Democratic establishment rallied around Joe Biden. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out just before Super Tuesday in a deal to not split the centrist vote and let BS win.

Also such losses as Nina Turner (Shontel Brown), Jessica Cisneros (Henry Cuellar), Marie Newman (1-term incumbent, Sean Casten), Alessandra Biaggi (Sean Patrick Maloney)

In all, centrist Democrats challenged by progressives ended up winning 14 of 22 primaries this cycle — roughly two-thirds. “The main problem was corporate PAC dark money,” says Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats. “The scale of it,” says Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the WFP, “I can’t overstate.”

Then the enormous amounts of money spent by big-money PAC's after their triumph over Nina Turner OH-11. They went on to defeat Jessica Cisneros TX-28 and Kina Collins IL-07.

“You could be a great candidate, have a legislative record that shows you can be effective, but money in politics is what kept me and my team up [at night],” says Delia Ramirez, who ran and won the primary for the newly drawn 3rd District in Illinois.

Incumbents Rashida Tlaib MI-12, Ilhan Omar MN-05, and Cori Bush MO-01 all faced big-money challenges. IO barely survived, but RT and CB survived with comfortable margins.

"... and Bush faced a flood of attacks from entrepreneur Steven C. Roberts, head of a sprawling business empire who also happens to be the father of Bush’s challenger."
How convenient.

“The main attack point was that these candidates were insufficiently loyal to the Democratic Party and Biden,” says Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats.

“Strong, Democratic, progressive Black women” were particularly questioned on their credentials, Rojas says. Issues the Right has weaponized — such as defunding the police—were less important as individual attacks than as part of a tapestry of negative messaging telling loyal Democratic voters that insurgents were inexperienced, unserious and out of step with the party, according to those involved in the campaigns. “They tested those attacks early on and poured lots of money to make sure the message they went with was salient enough with a large swath of voters,” Rojas adds.

Then Donna Edwards MD-04 lost to an AIPAC-backed candidate, even though she was liked by Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi along with BS-affiliated Our Revolution.

"The dark money spigot won’t shut off anytime soon. In September, the Democratic National Committee blocked a resolution to ban outside spending in primaries."

 

[bilby]

Don’t Look Now But Progressives Are About to Expand Their Ranks in Congress - In These Times

Thanx to the likes of the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

You don't appear to resile from being polarising, and your mischaracterising election of these moderates as 'radicalization' is further evidence of this.

 

[Swammerdami]

Of course Israel should defend itself. Bombing a Hamas rocket depot in Gaza or killing an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin are not "undeniable atrocities" and neither is it "indiscriminate and disproportionate force"....

As usual, you seem unable to cope with elementary logic. If a vicious killer pit bull is a dog, and my fluffy poodle is a dog, does it follow that every fluffy poodle is a vicious killer?

Here's a news story from just one month ago. In your view was the attack an example of "Bombing a Hamas rocket depot in Gaza" or was it "killing an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin" ?

Nablus, occupied West Bank – On the morning of October 4, dozens of Israeli settlers raided the Huwwara Secondary Boys School, south of Nablus city in the occupied West Bank, beating staff members and students and smashing cars and class windows before retreating.

Two students, a 16 and a 17-year-old, were treated in hospital for cuts and injuries from rocks, while others suffered tear gas inhalation when the Israeli army fired tear gas bombs into the school field following the attack.

Sitting in his office at the school, with scabs from the rocks still visible on his wrist, Shehadeh said the settlers “were throwing rocks at me, at the cars, at everything. It was raining rocks. I was hit on my arms, legs, and chest.”

The assault on the high school came as part of a sharp increase in coordinated and armed settler attacks, under Israeli army protection, during the past month in the town of Huwwara and other parts of Nablus, where organised Palestinian armed resistance against Israeli occupation has intensified in recent months.

Dozens of Palestinians have been injured and their properties destroyed in settler attacks in Huwwara on September 19 and 28, as well as October 4, and for three days in a row last week.

Dozens of such stories abound, but of course they're useless in trying to educate your Ilk.

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

What a laugh!

This fatuity recalls the famous scene from Chinatown:
"I'm a hypocrite!"
-- Jake slaps D____.
"I'm a liar!"
-- Jake slaps D____ again.
"I'm a moron!"
-- Jake slaps D____ again.
"I'm a hypocrite and a liar and a moron!"
-- D____ starts sobbing uncontrollably.

 

[ZiprHead]

Don’t Look Now But Progressives Are About to Expand Their Ranks in Congress - In These Times

Thanx to the likes of the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

Tell it to the Republicans. They're the ones doing it.

 

[ZiprHead]

This is bullshit. Trayvon's GF testified Trayvon was attacked while he was on the phone with her. That's hardly zero evidence.

First of all, she did not see anything, and as to what she may have heard (such as wet grass), she is hardly a disinterested witness.

What there is zero evidence of is that Trayvon assaulted Z.

There were abrasions on Trayvon's knuckles indicating he hit Z, but no such abrasions on Z's knuckles.
That shows that it was Trayvon who hit Z, not the other way around.

Considering Zimmerman's actions since the incident, it's become quite clear Zimmerman is a violent, racist POS.

What evidence of Z's alleged "racism" do you think you have?
And even if he was - even racist have the right to self defense if attacked.

I'll not respond to this derail. If you wish to continue it, report it and have it merged into the original thread.

 

[Elixir]

Don’t Look Now But Progressives Are About to Expand Their Ranks in Congress - In These Times

Thanx to the likes of the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

Tell it to the Republicans. They're the ones doing it.

Fat chance. One thing that defines RW ideologues is that they don’t eat their own.

 

[lpetrich]

But if the progressive movement is on the ropes, no one’s told its leaders.

“I think it’s been mis-portrayed as a bad year for progressives by the media,” says Greg Casar, a democratic socialist candidate who won his primary for an open House seat in Texas, and who (like other winning candidates) had the crucial backing of groups like WFP and Justice Democrats. “We’ll have a historic number of progressives, true progressives, in Congress.”

Lessons from the 2022 Primaries – what do they tell us about America’s political parties and the midterm elections?
The Republican Party continues to be dominated by Donald Trump while the Progressive Insurgency (PI) is a much weaker presence in the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump endorsed about 1/8 of the candidates, and about 96.53% of them won. They were mostly incumbents, though his endorsed non-incumbents won at a rate of 86.21%. Only mentioning him and/or his favorite slogans won at a smaller rate, comparable to not connecting oneself to Trump (some 60% of the candidates, winning at some 30%).

Republican primary candidates mostly identified as Trumpies (36.14%) or as mainstream conservatives (47.36%), and not very often as moderates (6.04%), with no data for 10.46%. The factions' win rates were not much different, with MC's at 35.91%, Trumpies at 33.41%, and mods at 26.76%. No-data ones did 17.39%.

The Democratic side is another story.

Candidates endorsed by "Justice for All" (typo for Justice Democrats?), Our Revolution, Indivisible, and/or Senator Bernie Sanders and/or a member of “the Squad” were only 5.82% but won at 50%. Those who used slogans from “Defund the Police", "Abolish ICE", "Medicare for All", "Green New Deal", "Opposition to ‘corporate’ Democrats” were 26.62% winning at 39.08%. Those without such connections or slogans were 72.15% and won at 46.98%. So left-wing positions are not the electoral poison that some people seem to think that they are.

Turning to factional identification, democratic socialists were 1.45%, winning at 38.46%, progressives were 32.55%, winning at 42.61%, and mainstream Democrat were 55.70%, winning at 51.80%. For no data, 10.29% of the candidates, the win rate was 17.39%. So being a left-winger was not electoral poison there also.

Conclusion. In the past decade each major political party has found itself embroiled in factional wars. But the impact on the parties has been very different. On the Republican side candidates have embraced Trump – even when he has not embraced them – and done very well in the primaries because of it. On the Democratic side, the impact of Bernie Sanders’ revolution has been smaller, more muted, and less successful in primaries. These facts are often overlooked for two reasons. First, the Republican Party works hard to paint all Democrats as socialists who would wreck our economy, defund the police, and open our borders to everyone. Second is the inclination in the press towards what our colleague and distinguished journalist Marvin Kalb has called the “journalistic curse called bothsideism.” The way this has worked in recent years is to assume symmetry – if the Republican Party is being jerked to the far right; the Democratic Party must be being jerked to the far left. As we’ve seen, there’s not much evidence to support that trend among the Democrats but plenty of evidence to support it among the Republicans.

 

[lpetrich]

In These Times then continued with the remarkable win rate of progressive organizations. Justice Democrats had a win rate of 3 out its 5 challenger candidates, JD's best rate ever. The Working Families Party had a win rate of 8 out of 14 non-incumbent House races. Though its win rate is 57% rather than 77% in 2020, it is moving away from investing in candidates in heavily Republican districts.

In a blow to centrist Democrats, WFP endorsee Jamie McLeod-Skinner ousted Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), the Blue Dog who led the corporate-backed effort in the House to derail the Build Back Better Act, the omnibus climate and social policy bill that was a priority for progressives. Another WFP candidate, Sanders-endorsed Vermont state Sen. Becca Balint, won her primary against Vermont’s lieutenant governor for Vermont’s only House seat, making her a shoo-in for the seat that, 30 years ago, catapulted Sanders to national prominence.

JMLS is in OR-05, +3% (538's estimate), so it will be a tough race for her in the general election. BB is very likely to win her seat, since it is +28%.

Then mentioning Greg Casar TX-35 +38%, Delia Ramirez IL-04 +39% Summer Lee PA-12 +15%, and Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29%. AIPAC is supporting the Republican against SL in a grudge match, so it will be difficult for her. These four have excited the base, at least if one counts endorsements. In BS's aforementioned conference were Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41% and BB VT-01 +28%. Some other possibilities are Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51%, Angélica Dueñas CA-29 against a Democratic incumbent, Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0% (538: evenly matched), and Mandela Barnes for Senate in Wisconsin -4% (538: a slight Republican tilt). Progressives are also lining up behind John Fetterman of Pennsylvania -3% (538: also a slight Republican tilt).

Progressive incumbents who survived strong primary challenges: Ilhan Omar MN-05 50.3%, Jamaal Bowman NY-16 60.9%, Rashida Tlaib MI-12 64.4%, Cori Bush MO-01 69.5%. AOC and Ayanna Pressley had no primary challenges, despite AOC getting a strong one back in 2020.

One progressive is in a vulnerable spot: Katie Porter CA-47 +6%. She won only 51.0% in the primary, and her opponents were all Republicans.

Angélica Dueñas CA-29 I'm not very sure about. Incumbent Tony Cárdenas won 57.5%, AD 20.4%, and three Republicans a total of 22.1%.

Back in 2020, in the primary, it was TC 58.5%, AD 23.0%, a R 15.0%, and a D 3.5%. In the general, TC 56.6% AD 43.4%.

In 2018, AD ran as a Green, and got only 6.4% of the vote, placing fourth.

 

[lpetrich]

Collecting all the numbers, Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51%, Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41%, Delia Ramirez IL-04 +39%, Becca Balint VT-01 +28%, Greg Casar TX-35 +38%, Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29%, Summer Lee PA-12 +15%, Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 +3%, Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0%, John Fetterman PA-SEN -3%, Mandela Barnes WI-SEN -4%.

Of the long-shot candidates, I must mention Charles Booker KY-SEN -27% against Rand Paul, Odessa Kelly TN-07 -21% (gerrymandered in the middle of her run), and maybe also Cheri Beasley NC-SEN -5%.

So the Squad could well double in size a few days from now.

 

[lpetrich]

Back to ITT: "Tactics and Strategies".

Progressive insurgents often started off well in advance, as much as 14 months in advance.

“It was important to firm up as much support as possible early, so that when lies or mischaracterizations hit, they don’t stick,” says Casar. “And we worked really hard to pay for early polling to show how much broad support we had, which can help keep that right-wing money from coming in.”

Then about Greg Casar and Maxwell Frost backing off from stances that AIPAC considers anti-Israel.

Another factor was the candidates themselves. “The quality of the candidate matters so much,” says Waleed Shahid. “You can have the math on paper that the demographics and the path to victory are such and such, but if the candidate’s not an authentic messenger or grounded in good values, it’s going to be hard to make that case.”

The candidates’ years of involvement in organizing gave them pre-established public profiles, plus deep connections to local leaders, activists and potential allies — as did their time in elected office.

Then discussing the activism of Greg Casar (33 years old), Delia Ramirez (39 years old, daughter of Guatemalan immigrants), Summer Lee (34 years old), and Maxwell Frost (25 years old). All but MF have had careers in local and state elected office, and good records in those careers.

Previous political careers:

AOC: none; Ayanna Pressley: Boston MA City Council 2009 - ?; Rashida Tlaib: MI House 2009 - 2015; Ilhan Omar: MN House 2017-2019; Katie Porter: none; Marie Newman: none; Jamaal Bowman: none; Cori Bush: none; Mondaire Jones: none; Jonathan Jackson: none; Becca Balint: VT Senate 2015 - 2023; Delia Ramirez: IL House 2019 - 2023; Greg Casar: Austin TX City Council 2015 - 2022; Maxwell Frost: none; Summer Lee: PA House 2018 - 2022; Jamie McLeod-Skinner: none; Michelle Vallejo: none; Mandela Barnes: WI Lt Gov 2019 - 2023, WI Assembly 2013 - 2017; John Fetterman: PA Lt Gov 2019 - 2023

 

[lpetrich]

Some of their history of legislative action:

On the Austin City Council, Casar pushed through affordable housing measures and a 60-day eviction moratorium at the start of the pandemic.

...
In Illinois, Ramirez authored an emergency housing assistance bill, signed into law in May 2021, that temporarily stayed some foreclosures and allocated money for struggling renters and homeowners during the pandemic.

...
Lee, who had to work within a long GOP-controlled Pennsylvania legislature, drew on her activist roots to jumpstart action on police reform during the 2020 George Floyd protests, leading the effort to commandeer the House podium at the start of voting.

...
These records made charges of party disloyalty a tough sell. “To accuse them of being Republicans didn’t really work,” Shahid says. Their legislation had been publicized as victories by local Democratic branches in party press releases, such as the paid sick leave ordinance passed by Casar, who calls himself “a proud member” of the Democratic Party. When Ramirez spearheaded the codification of abortion rights in Illinois in 2019 and successfully passed a provision—inserted at the end of a 465-page budget bill in 2020 — to expand Medicaid to undocumented immigrants, Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker touted both as major accomplishments.

That hurt candidates without legislative records, like Kina Collins. "She fell in a low-turnout election in Chicago, where doorknockers in typically blue-voting African-American neighborhoods met voters complaining the president wasn’t doing anything for them, Alexandra Rojas says."

 

[lpetrich]

Through it all, the winning campaigns continued the strategies progressive challengers have become known for, namely the blister-inducing doorknocking and phonebanking that’s been the bedrock of left-wing upsets going back to Sanders’ first mayoral victory in 1981.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's shoes are making history - CNN Style - shoes with holes in their soles from her walking in them.

From 2018 Jan 28, during her first campaign:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "I've worn through a few shoes on the campaign trail, but today was the first time making a straight hole through the bottom.
Anyone out there have a favorite shoe that can handle anything? Looking for something presentable for the campaign trail but can take LOTS of walking." / Twitter

Central as these tactics are, however, they’re clearly no longer enough.

“That can’t make up for the imbalance in paid communications,” Shahid says. “Our adversaries are spending six, seven figures on mailers and ads, and we can’t abandon that terrain to them. For older voters, it’s the main way they get information.”

One clear trend is that progressive candidates who are outspent 2-to-1 can win, while those with steeper ratios aren’t as lucky. “When our candidates were outspent to that level, our opponents could shape the narrative in ways that became overwhelming for us to reshape, even with all the advantages we had,” Mitchell says. WFP-backed Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam was outspent 14-to-1 and lost her bid for North Carolina’s 4th District.

Summer Lee went from a 25% lead to a little less than 1% of victory. It also didn't help that there was another progressive in the race, Jerry Dickinson, who got 10.9% of the vote.

“Summer’s race was one we knew we could win, but it required us to go all in,” says Rojas. “After that, we didn’t have the money to spend in the same way on others.”

In the end, Justice Democrats and other outside groups came up with $1.7 million to offset the nearly $3 million spent against Lee. Only $22,000 separated Ramirez and the runner-up in her race, while Casar faced no serious outside spending in his four-way primary. Frost, as a dark horse political novice, did not draw much resistance in his race — but as time has proven, such out-of-nowhere upsets hardly make for reliable left-wing victories.

“A big part of what I’m thinking about is what I can do between now and the next cycle to build that war chest,” Rojas says. “In the same way that progressives care about organizing people, we have to start caring about organizing money.”

 

[lpetrich]

How to raise money? Having a progressive version of Nancy Pelosi? Bernie Sanders and AOC?

As counterintuitive as it seems, the groups challenging the corporate establishment view the flood of dark money as a marker of success.

“Their money is a response to our victories,” Mitchell says. “They wouldn’t be spending this much if our strategies weren’t working, or on candidates who have no path to victory.”

Yes, they must be scared.

These victories defied a number of pernicious narratives. Republicans have claimed since 2020, with some evidence, that Latino voters are a conservative constituency drifting steadily away from the Democratic Party. Yet Casar and Ramirez won big in majority Latino districts running on unabashedly progressive platforms.

Checking on Ballotpedia, both candidates won big.

• Greg Casar TX-35: 61.1%, 15.6%, 15.6%, 7.6%
• Delia Ramirez IL-03: 65.6%, 23.9%, 6.5%, 4.0%

Both of them won by big margins.

Despite a bipartisan effort to turn “defund the police” and reform efforts into a political liability — partly based on the claim that minority voters are most concerned with law and order — Casar, Ramirez, Frost and Lee all backed Black Lives Matter protests (Frost was arrested) or even supported the defunding demand.

“Defund the police, socialism — all those big slogans have come up on the campaign trail,” Rojas says. The difference, she says, was the candidates’ long-term approach to politics that saw them campaign for 12 to 14 months and spend even longer organizing and building public profiles, giving them the public trust and infrastructure to weather such attacks.

“The tactic that all of our candidates have taken is to bring together broad coalitions by going out, knocking on doors, meeting people, having honest conversations,” Rojas says, whether about Medicare for All, about what “defunding” really entails, or what democratic socialism actually means.

 

[lpetrich]

The successes of Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Cori Bush should have impressed commentators that progressivism is not just a bicoastal thing. But the likely victories of the newest progressive insurgents should provide yet more counterevidence. So I decided to check on their residences.

• Boston MA: Ayanna Pressley
• Burlington, VT: Becca Balint
• New York City: AOC, Jamaal Bowman, Mondaire Jones
• Pittsburgh PA: Summer Lee
• Orlando FL: Maxwell Frost
• Detroit MI: Rashida Tlaib
• Chicago IL: Marie Newman, Delia Ramirez, Jonathan Jackson
• Minneapolis MN: Ilhan Omar
• Austin TX: Greg Casar
• Orange County CA: Katie Porter

I think that these commentators will retreat to saying that progressivism is a big-city thing.

I can't resist:
The Long, Troubling Career of Buffalo's Byron Brown - In These Times - "The career trajectory of Byron Brown is familiar to U.S. cities: a young reformer who took on the city’s corrupt establishment—and who soon embodied the very establishment he’d run against."

Much like Kyrsten Sinema.

 

[Derec]

You don't appear to resile from being polarising,

I detest extremists on both sides. The problem is that people like you, and many others on here, do not acknowledge left wing extremists as such.

and your mischaracterising election of these moderates as 'radicalization' is further evidence of this.

I find it risible that you think candidates like Summer Lee, who is a (card-carrying?) member of the DSA and who called for defunding of police and for abolition of prisons, ICE and even borders, "moderates".

 

[Derec]

As usual, you seem unable to cope with elementary logic.

You are projecting.

Here's a news story from just one month ago.

I just see some text that is not attributed to any source or

In your view was the attack an example of "Bombing a Hamas rocket depot in Gaza" or was it "killing an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin" ?

I was referring to these incidents from a few days ago.
Israel strikes ‘rocket factory’ in Gaza after rockets launched at south
Two Palestinians – a teen and a terror activist – killed in Israeli raid in Jenin
And lest you weep for the 14 year old shot during the raid, Palestinian terrorists often use underage fighters.
These new terror groups such as so-called "Lion's Den" (named after eliminated terrorist Ibrahim al-Nabulsi) in Shechem and "Jenin Brigades" have been responsible for many attacks against Israelis, including inside Israel.
3 dead, several other people shot in terror attack in Tel Aviv, Israel

Palestinian Caught in Jaffa Planned Bnei Brak Synagogue Attack
A synagogue in the same town (not sure if same one) had been attacked in March, by a Fatah (supposedly a "moderate" Palestinian faction) terrorist.
Five killed in Bnei Brak shooting as Israel enters 'new wave of terror'

Even if your text is correct and some settlers are getting out of hand, it has to be understood in context of increased attacks by Palestinians from "West Bank" over the last two years or so. And at least they are not shooting at random civilians in mosques, like your Palestinians are doing.

Dozens of such stories abound, but of course they're useless in trying to educate your Ilk.

And you are ignoring numerous stories of Palestinian attacks. At least I am providing links to mine.

What a laugh!

What you should be laughing at instead is bilby's ridiculous notion that DSA radicals like Summer Lee are "moderates".

 

[bilby]

What you should be laughing at instead is bilby's ridiculous notion that DSA radicals like Summer Lee are "moderates".

Given that I neither know nor care who the fuck Summer Lee is, it's really not my notion at all, just your projection.

It's a fact that the radical left barely exists, and has zero power, in today's USA.

Your obsession with individual people who you identify as 'radical left' is your own problem. I really don't give crap the first about any of them, as a genuinely left wing non-American.

 

[Derec]

I'll not respond to this derail. If you wish to continue it, report it and have it merged into the original thread.

The original thread? The one from two board softwares ago that is only accessible through the archives?
But I am fine dropping it. It was Summer Lee who brought it up 10 years after the fact. Blame her I guess.

 

[Derec]

Given that I neither know nor care who the fuck Summer Lee is, it's really not my notion at all, just your projection.

So what are you doing on this thread then? This thread is about Democrats' from the left fringe running insurrectionist campaigns against establishment candidates. Summer Lee is one of those. Are you just drive-by attacking people from the comfort of your Holden Ute?

It's a fact that the radical left barely exists, and has zero power, in today's USA.

They very much exist and have quite a bit of power. They have pushed Biden and senators who fear a primary challenge - like Chuck Schumer - to the left.

Your obsession with individual people who you identify as 'radical left' is your own problem. I really don't give crap the first about any of them, as a genuinely left wing non-American.

This thread is about those people. If anybody has an "obsession" about the minutiae of all these contests and progressive challenges and insurrections is it lpetrich, who writes about pretty much all of them. I comment of a few of them. So what are you attacking me for?

 

[bilby]

Given that I neither know nor care who the fuck Summer Lee is, it's really not my notion at all, just your projection.

So what are you doing on this thread then? This thread is about Democrats' from the left fringe running insurrectionist campaigns against establishment candidates. Summer Lee is one of those. Are you just drive-by attacking people from the comfort of your Holden Ute?

It's a fact that the radical left barely exists, and has zero power, in today's USA.

They very much exist and have quite a bit of power. They have pushed Biden and senators who fear a primary challenge - like Chuck Schumer - to the left.

Your obsession with individual people who you identify as 'radical left' is your own problem. I really don't give crap the first about any of them, as a genuinely left wing non-American.

This thread is about those people. If anybody has an "obsession" about the minutiae of all these contests and progressive challenges and insurrections is it lpetrich, who writes about pretty much all of them. I comment of a few of them. So what are you attacking me for?

Because you posted something so fiercely dumb I couldn't find it within myself to keep on ignoring it.

viz:

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

If this were a criticism of the GOP, it would at least have the benefit of not being batshit crazy paranoia. But it's not, so it doesn't.

I read pretty much everything that's posted on IIDB, but I try to ignore the bulk of the US political minutiæ. Unless the dumb gets too loud.

https://xkcd.com/386

 

[lpetrich]

The votes are not certified yet, but we have a good idea of how most of the candidates fared. The numbers: 538 partisanship, (Ballotpedia) vote fraction, difference from second candidate.

Ayanna Pressley MA-07 73% 84.9% +69.8%, AOC NY-14 +57% 71.3% +44.5%, Ilhan Omar MN-05 +57% 75.2% +50.4%, Rashida Tlaib MI-12 +44% 70.1% +43.2%, Jamaal Bowman +40% 64.3% +28.7%, Cori Bush MO-01 +52% 72.8% +48.4%. Katie Porter CA-47 +6% (only 60% counted: 50.5% +1.0%)

All but one of these incumbents won with good margins against Republican opponents, and the exception ran in a strongly-divided district. The newcomers:

Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51% 75.8% +54.7%, Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41% 65.5% +34.0%, Delia Ramirez IL-03 +39% 66.7% +33.4%, Greg Casar TX-35 +38%, Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29% 59.0% +19.5%, Becca Balint VT-01 +28% 62.8% +34.9%, Summer Lee PA-12 +15% 55.7% +11.4%, Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 +3% (not called yet: 48.7% -2.6%), Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0% 44.8% -8.5%, John Fetterman PA-SEN -3% 50.5% +3.4%, Mandela Barnes WI-SEN -4% 49.5% -1.0%, Odessa Kelly TN-07 -21% 38.1% -21.9%, (gerrymandered in the middle of her run), Charles Booker KY-SEN -27% 38.2% -23.6% against Rand Paul.

Winners: Jasmine Crockett TX-30, Jonathan Jackson IL-01, Delia Ramirez IL-03, Greg Casar TX-35, Maxwell Frost FL-10, Becca Balint VT-01, Summer Lee PA-12, John Fetterman PA-SEN.

 

[lpetrich]

Bernie Sanders on Twitter: "Progressive candidates had a great election night. I want to thank everyone who got out there and helped make this happen. There will now be more strong progressives in the U.S. House than ever before. I’d like to quickly highlight a few of them." / Twitter

Summer Lee PA-12, Becca Balint VT-01, Greg Casar TX-35, Jasmine Crockett TX-30, Jonathan Jackson IL-01, Delia Ramirez IL-03, Val Hoyle OR-04, Maxwell Frost FL-10,

Summer Lee successfully survived AIPAC's sore-loser campaign against her. After backing a primary-election opponent and losing, AIPAC then backed a general-election opponent. So AIPAC didn't have a Byron Brown sort of sore-loser success.

So that means that the "Squad" will grow in size by a factor of 2.

 

[Harry Bosch]

CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.

 

[ZiprHead]

CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.

Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.

 

[Harry Bosch]

CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.

Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.

Well, Chavez will really fix everything! She's going to go after Hunter and she will fight to ensure that our kindergartens stop promoting CRT! Yikes, this was incredibly easy to predict. My district is really a bellweather district. It's always been 50-50 split. Then when Schrader (very much a moderate) took over, and established himself in the region, and developed a dependable following, dems redrew the lines to add some more conservative areas (into eastern Oregon). Eastern Oregon is as conservative as Idaho. Then the far left in Oregon started promoting Skinner, a person far to the left of most in the district. Turnout was low in the primaries (I didn't vote in the primary which I greatly regret); Skinner pulled off the upset. Then Skinner got beat.

 

[ZiprHead]

CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.

Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.

Well, Chavez will really fix everything! She's going to go after Hunter and she will fight to ensure that our kindergartens stop promoting CRT! Yikes, this was incredibly easy to predict. My district is really a bellweather district. It's always been 50-50 split. Then when Schrader (very much a moderate) took over, and established himself in the region, and developed a dependable following, dems redrew the lines to add some more conservative areas (into eastern Oregon). Eastern Oregon is as conservative as Idaho. Then the far left in Oregon started promoting Skinner, a person far to the left of most in the district. Turnout was low in the primaries (I didn't vote in the primary which I greatly regret); Skinner pulled off the upset. Then Skinner got beat.

That's what happens when the pol thinks about his pocketbook instead of his voters.

 

[lpetrich]

A Controversial Decision in Oregon Could Cost Democrats the House - Nov 11 - "Progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner trails by 2 points in a race the national Democratic super PACs preemptively deemed unwinnable. She’s not the only one."

McLeod-Skinner made national headlines earlier this year for defeating seven-term incumbent Kurt Schrader in a fiercely contested primary. Her win — the only success an insurgent candidate notched against a Democratic incumbent this cycle — was driven by a lopsided overperformance in Deschutes.

Schrader had been a member of the so-called Unbreakable Nine who organized against President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, and said in a private call with the dark-money sponsors of their operation, No Labels, that he hoped to kill it. National progressive groups as well as most of the local Democratic Party operations rallied behind McLeod-Skinner to knock out Schrader in May.

Progressives find a new takedown target in the House - POLITICO - "In what could become the next marquee Democratic primary, top liberal groups are aiming to knock off moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader in Oregon."

But it wasn’t until the last few years — when the Oregon Democrat likened the second impeachment of former President Donald Trump to a “lynching,” opposed a $15 minimum wage, and initially voted against the American Rescue Plan — that he truly surfaced on the radar of national left-wing activists.

Lynching???

In a statement, Schrader said his votes in the House prove that he supports organized labor and Biden’s priorities. As for his “lynching” comments, he quickly apologized at the time, saying “my words were wrong, hurtful and completely inappropriate.”

“My record shows I have voted with President Biden 96 percent of the time, including voting for the American Rescue Plan to support families, schools, and small businesses through the COVID-19 crisis, and the PRO Act to protect workers’ rights and strengthen unions,” said Schrader. “I’m also proud to have the backing of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Joint Council of Teamsters No. 37, and Progressive Turnout Project, among others.”

 

[lpetrich]

Rep. Kurt Schrader defends vote to block drug pricing bill | kgw.com - "The pharmaceutical industry gave $144,252 to Rep. Kurt Schrader's 2020 campaign, more money than he received from any other industry."

According to OpenSecrets, a group tracking money in politics, Schrader has received $614,830 from the pharmaceutical industry since he began his career in Congress. He received $144,252 of that during the last election cycle, more money than any other industry that donated to his campaign.

Schrader also reportedly inherited a “fortune” from his grandfather who was a top executive at Pfizer, according to The Oregonian.

When asked about accusations these connections influenced his vote, Schrader said he understands how it looks, but said his track record shows he is tough on the industry.

“If pharma thinks they’re buying a vote, they’re getting a bad deal,” Schrader said. “This bill that [Rep. Scott Peters] and I are offering, not only is it dangerous for pharma because it has a chance of passing, but it's more complete and more in-depth. So I appreciate people's concern. I personally am proud of the work my grandfather did and developing mass production for Pfizer. He saved millions of American lives during World War II. But that in no way influences the work I do.”

Schrader also said he doesn’t know why the pharmaceutical industry gives him so much money.

“A common fallacy the average person has is the reason they give you money is you say you’re going to vote for this or vote for that. I’ve never ever done that, and I don’t know many legislators that do that,” Schrader said. “They just want to have access to at least plead their case. I think most smart legislators like me, we'll get the pharmaceutical groups in to champion their case, I'll get the patient advocacy groups to come in, I'll get the insurance companies and all the different groups, and then you make your decision. It’s not like they actually have much opportunity to control what you vote on at the end of the day.”

That's the Francis Bacon defense - "Sure I took those bribes, but I didn't let them influence me."

For much of his life, Sir Francis Bacon had been a judge, but someone exposed him as having taken bribes from his clients. He resigned and retired to his estate, and made that defense of his actions.

 

[lpetrich]

 Francis Bacon - lived some 400 years ago,

Back to A Controversial Decision in Oregon Could Cost Democrats the House

While the DCCC made an investment of just under $2 million dollars in the race, they came off the air in the final few weeks, and the leadership-aligned super political action committee, House Majority PAC, made the eyebrow-raising move to triage the race altogether. House Majority PAC communications director CJ Warnke declined to explain the reasoning behind the move at the time, but told The Intercept Friday that House Majority PAC “had to make strategic decisions across the country to build the most optimal path to Democratic success this cycle.”

“Our investments,” he continued, “made a major difference across the country and in Oregon, where we spent nearly $4 million for Congresswoman-elect Val Hoyle in OR-04 and State Rep. Andrea Salinas in OR-06 — who both faced an unprecedented amount of Republican spending this year.”

While neglecting OR-05. Also, KS never campaigned for JMLS, instead preferring to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Betsy Johnson: Democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader endorses Betsy Johnson for Oregon governor - OPB

Of course, the fiasco in the neighboring 6th Congressional District also has House Majority PAC’s fingerprints all over it. There, progressive state representative Andrea Salinas entered the general election bruised from the most expensive primary contest in the nation after former cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried and House Majority PAC teamed up in an over $10 million failed attempt to anoint political newcomer and effective altruist Carrick Flynn as the nominee. The unorthodox partnership appeared to be the result of a quid pro quo, as Bankman-Fried contemporaneously donated $6 million to the committee. House Majority PAC spent $1 million on Flynn and ended up spending over $3.25 million of the remainder helping Salinas win the general election in a seat that was considered safe earlier in the cycle. The DCCC also spent $1.75 million boosting Salinas. (Bankman-Fried was worth billions of dollars at the time; as of now, he appears broke.)

Republicans, on the other hand, treated the race in Oregon’s 5th District as the toss-up it clearly was; they spent nearly $8 million in total — spending that ballooned all the way through Election Day.

 

[lpetrich]

While a handful of progressive organizations stepped in to alleviate some of the massive financial disparity — including a $1 million investment from Working Families Party that stretched across the primary and general — their limited resources meant McLeod-Skinner, who has long declined support from corporate-funded PACs, was left with an outside spending deficit of over $5 million. The progressive groups who worked to close that gap have been sharp in their criticism. “While they pumped last-minute money into the DCCC chair’s losing race in New York,” Indivisible national political director Dani Negrete told The Intercept, “Jamie has been holding on entirely based on her strength as a candidate and her grassroots support.”

The party’s underinvestment in McLeod-Skinner is reminiscent of Democrats’ decision to abandon progressive nominee Kara Eastman during her 2018 run against Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon. After Eastman won a stunning upset against the national party’s handpicked nominee, former representative Brad Ashford, Democrats’ national committees declined to spend significant money to help her in the general election, which she lost by just under 5,000 votes. When Eastman was renominated for the seat in 2020, the national party lent its support, but the damage was already done. Millions in unanswered ads from previous cycles had defined her image to the electorate, and Bacon, whose prior record was in step with harder line conservatives in his party, moderated his image substantially. He won by over 4 percentage points.

Despite the headwinds he faced this year, Bacon trounced moderate Democrat Tony Vargas, who ran with the early blessing of the national party, by a margin nearly identical to the margin he beat Eastman by in 2020 — demonstrating that progressive antipathy is unworkable as either a short-term or long-term strategy if national Democrats hope to wield power rather than appease wealthy donors.

So the Democratic leadership was irked by Kara Eastman's primary victory also? What thin skins.

AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.

 

[Derec]

AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.

Well, that's the danger if you stab a fellow Democrat in the back, I guess.

As to JMS, OR-5 is only deemed D+2. So obviously it is easier for a moderate like Shrader than for a lefty like JMS to win there. That's the danger of progs primarying moderates in districts that are not safe Dem districts like AOC's NY-14 which is D+25.

 

[Derec]

So that means that the "Squad" will grow in size by a factor of 2.

Time to promote Sandy to Staff Sergeant now of what?

 

[Derec]

Because you posted something so fiercely dumb I couldn't find it within myself to keep on ignoring it.

What is "fiercely dumb" here is you admitting that you don't know much about Summer Lee and yet insist that she is a moderate.

If this were a criticism of the GOP, it would at least have the benefit of not being batshit crazy paranoia. But it's not, so it doesn't.

It is criticism of both. It is partisans who think their party's shit don't stink.

Unless the dumb gets too loud.

Used to be a time when personal insults were deemed to be against the TOU. Alas ...

 

[lpetrich]

AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.

Well, that's the danger if you stab a fellow Democrat in the back, I guess.

Winning an election is stabbing someone in the back???

As to JMS, OR-5 is only deemed D+2. So obviously it is easier for a moderate like Shrader than for a lefty like JMS to win there. That's the danger of progs primarying moderates in districts that are not safe Dem districts like AOC's NY-14 which is D+25.

I think that Kurt Schrader would have been vulnerable. I checked on United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia and Report Cards for 2020 - Ideology Score - All Representatives - GovTrack.us and I found that every Democratic incumbent who lost to a Republican was relatively conservative. GovTrack score: 0 = lib, 1 = con.

Cindy Axne IA-03 0.51, Alfred Lawson FL-02 0.34, Elaine Luria VA-02 0.44, Tom Malinowski NJ-07 0.36, Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 0.30, Tom O'Halleran AZ-02 0.50.

Kurt Schrader 0R-05 fits right in at 0.45.

After scrutiny, US Rep. Cindy Axne supports ban on stock trades in Congress | Campaign Legal Center and Luria calls plan to ban stock trading in Congress “bulls—“ | WAVY.com

“I think this whole concept is bull****,” Luria told Punchbowl News. “Because I think that, why would you assume that members of Congress are going to be inherently bad or corrupt?”

noting
email.punchbowl.news/t/ViewEmail/t/08B9F6CABF6820E72540EF23F30FEDED/2084BCBFB0618DF95281BC0AA5ABFD98?alternativeLink=False

Some news for you this morning: Two vulnerable House Democrats have been privately expressing concerns about any effort to ban stock trading on Capitol Hill. The lawmakers in question: Reps. Cindy Axne of Iowa and Elaine Luria of Virginia

With EL saying that "I think this whole concept is bullshit." CA seemed more sensible.

Axne, on the other hand, worries that a ban on congressional stock trading would fail to differentiate between accounts that aren’t controlled by members of Congress (like 529 education accounts) and active trading being done by lawmakers.

Being on the take is not good for one's image, and KS was on the take in a big way, even offering the Francis Bacon defense.

On the bright side, some Republicans lost to Democrats, like Republican Mayra Flores, who won in a TX-34 special election earlier this year, but who then lost to a Democrat the general election. She was big on Religious-Right, God-is-an-American sort of Republicanism.

 

[Elixir]

Winning an election is stabbing someone in the back???

Worse, it’s PROPERTY theft. Just ask the Stop the Steal bunch.

 

[lpetrich]

Two candidates I remember from 2020, they won in state-legislature elections:

Nabilah Islam makes history with Senate win in Georgia | 11alive.com - "The 32-year-old beat out her Republican opponent Josh McKay for the seat– winning with 53 percent of the vote in State Senate District 7."

Nabilah Islam - Ballotpedia - she barely won the primary and general elections.

Back in 2020, she ran for Congress in GA-07, placing 3rd with 12.3% of the vote. Incumbent Carolyn Boudreaux won the primary and the general.

Rachel Ventura Declares Victory In Illinois 43rd State Senate Race - 1340 WJOL

With 100% of ballots counted in Illinois’ 43rd State Senate District, Progressive Democrat Rachel Ventura declared victory with a 10 point margin over her Republican opponent, Diane Harris. Ventura commended Harris for running a clean campaign. “I have a great amount of respect for the class and civility that Diane Harris brings to the political sphere,” said Ventura. “I think Americans are tired of the negative attacks, lies and destructive politics that accompany elections, and I’m thankful that we were both able to rise above that.”

“My overarching goal is to restore hope at a time when Americans need it – restore hope in the broken system, restore hope that we can win without corporate sponsors, restore democracy and decency, and shift power and dollars back to the people where they belong,” she said during her speech. “I understand the art of compromise and will try to work with everyone, but I’m also willing to get in the ring and go a few rounds with anyone.”

Rachel Ventura - Ballotpedia - this year, she beat the State Senate #43 incumbent by 15%, but in 2020, she ran for Congress, losing the primary to incumbent Bill Foster by 17%.

 

[lpetrich]

Let's see how well the progressive insurgents did in this general election, compared to other elections. Numbers are pct:

• 2018:
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 56.7, 43.3 - 78.2, 13.6, 6.6, 1.6 - (2020) 74.4, 18.1, 5.0, 2.2, 0.2 - 71.6, 27.4, 0.9, 0.1 - (2022) 100 - 71.3, 26.8, 1.9 (NY-14: +58, +44.2 )
  • Ayanna Pressley: 58.6, 41.4 - 98.3, 1.7 - (2020) 98.6, 1.4 - 86.6, 12.5, 0.8 - (2022) 98.7, 1.3 - 84.9, 15.1 (MA-07: +73, +69.8)
  • Rashida Tlaib: 31.2, 30.2, 14.1, 12.5, 6.6, 5.4 - 84.2, 11.3, 4.1, 0.4 - (2020) 66.3, 33.7 - 78.1, 18.6, 1.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.0 - (2022) 64.4, 20.1, 10.5, 5.0 - 70.1, 26.9, 3.0 (MI-12: +44, +43.2)
  • Ilhan Omar: 48.2, 30.4, 13.0, 3.7, 2.8, 1.8 - 78.0, 21.7, 0.4 - (2020) 58.2, 38.5, 1.5, 1.1, 0.7 - 64.3, 25.8, 9.5, 0.4 - (2022) 50.3, 48.2, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4 - 75.2, 24.8 (MN-05: +57, +50.4)
  • Katie Porter: 20.3, 51.7, 17.8, 6.0, 2.3, 1.9 - 52.1, 47.9 - (2020) 50.8, 17.9, 12.8, 11.1, 4.0, 2.4, 1.0 - 53.5, 46.5 - (2022) 51.0, 30.8, 8.4, 7.7, 2.1 - 51.6, 48.4 (CA-47: +6, +3.2)
• 2020:
  • Jamaal Bowman: 55.4, 40.6, 1.8, 1.3, 0.9, 0.1 - 84.0, 15.8, 0.2 - (2022) 60.9, 23.0, 14.6, 1.3, 0.2 - 64.3, 35.6, 0.1 (NY-16: +40, +28.7)
  • Cori Bush: (2018: 36.9, 56.7, 3.4, 2.9) - 48.5, 45.6, 5.9 - 78.8, 19.0, 2.1, 0.1 - (2022) 69.5, 26.6, 1.8, 1.1, 1.0 - 72.8, 24.4, 2.8 (MO-01: +52, +48.4)
• 2022:
  • Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51 - 48.5, 17.1, 7.8, 7.7, 5.9, 5.0, 3.4, 3.4, 1.2 - 60.1, 39.9 - 75.8, 21.1, 2.1, 0.9, 0.0 (+54.7)
  • Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41 - 28.0, 19.2, 14.1, 12.0, 5.6, 5.0, 3.3, 2.2, 2.1, 1.9, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3 - 65.5, 34.5 (+31.0)
  • Delia Ramirez IL-04 +39 - 65.6, 23.9, 6.5, 4.0 - 66.7, 33.3 (+33.4)
  • Greg Casar TX-35 +38 - 61.1, 15.6, 15.6, 7.6 - 74.9, 25.1 (+49.8)
  • Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29 - 34.0, 25.0, 15.5, 9.7, 6.9, 2.4, 2.2, 1.9, 1.3, 1.1 - 59.0, 39.5, 1.0, 0.6 (+19.5)
  • Becca Balint VT-01 +28 - 60.3, 37.3, 1.4, 0.9, 0.1 - 62.8, 27.9, 4.5, 2.0, 1.6, 1.2 (+34.9)
  • Summer Lee PA-12 +15 - 41.9, 41.0, 10.9, 4.8, 1.5 - 55.7, 44.3 (+11.4)
  • Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 +3 - 56.9, 42.7, 0.5 - 48.9, 51.1 (-2.2)
  • Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0 - 28.3, 20.1, 19.2, 16.5, 10.6, 5.2 - 50.1, 49.9 - 44.8, 53.3, 1.9 (-8.5)
  • John Fetterman PA-SEN -3 - 58.6, 26.3, 10.8, 4.2 - 50.5, 47.1, 1.4, 0.6, 0.5 (+3.4)
  • Mandela Barnes WI-SEN -4 - 77.5, 8.7, 8.7, 2.1, 1.1, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5 - 49.5, 50.5 (-1.0)
  • Odessa Kelly TN-07 -21 - 100 - 38.1, 60.0, 1.9 (-21.9)
  • Charles Booker KY-SEN -27 - 73.1, 10.7, 10.0, 6.2 - 38.2, 61.8 (-23.6)

So 538 did a good job in predicting how well the candidates did, even though the Republicans did a few points better than expected across the board. Also, the incumbent progressives did about as well as they did in previous elections. Most of them are in safe seats, so they are only vulnerable to primary challenges.

 

[lpetrich]

Henry Cuellar (D-Azerbaijan) vs. Jessica Cisneros (*): (2002) 47.2, 51.5, 0.7, 0.5 - (2004) 59.0, 38.6, 2.4 - (2006) 67.6, 20.3, 12.1 - (2008) 68.7, 29.2, 2.1 - (2010) 56.3, 42.0, 1.7 - (2012) 67.9, 29.8, 1.5, 0.8 - (2014) 82.1, 13.3, 4.6 - (2016) 66.2, 31.3, 2.5 - (2018) 84.4, 15.6 - (2020) 51.8, 48.2* - 58.3, 39.0, 2.7 - (2022) 48.7, 46.6*, 4.7 - 50.3, 49.7* - 57.8, 42.2

So that raid on his house did not hurt him very much, and his Azerbaijan connections didn't either. This is a country without much geopolitical, economic, or cultural significance outside of its neighborhood of countries, and no big community of immigrants from it in HC's district that I know of. It's a place that I'd expect journalists Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian to know about, but not many other people. It seems that Azerbaijan's leadership has been raising their country's profile by buying influence with that country's oil wealth, and that HC is one of their recipients.