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Democrats trying to unseat each other II

lpetrich

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Recall Kshama Sawant | Seattle City Councilmember
Claiming
1. Misuse of City of Seattle Council Office Resources to Promote a Ballot Initiative or Other Electioneering (Jan-February 2020)

2. Misuse of Councilmember Sawant’s Official Position in Admitting Hundreds of Individuals Illegally into City Hall Afterhours (June 9, 2020)

3. Using Her Official Position as City Councilmember to Lead a Protest March to Mayor Jenny Durkan’s Private Residence Whose Location is in the State Confidential Program (July 3rd 2020)
The vote on recalling her was on December 7, and as the vote was counted, it shifted from recalling her to keeping her in office.

Dec 7 -6.2%, Dec 8 -0.6%, Dec 10 +0.6%, Dec 13 +0.8%, Dec 14 +0.8%

Rejection of recalling her is currently leading by 309 out of 40,932 votes.

The count should be done by tomorrow and certified by Friday. She or the recall supporters can then request a recount, but whoever does will have to foot the bill.
 

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Kshama Sawant has officially survived the recall attempt, though with a narrow margin: 41033 total votes, 20346 yes, 20656 no, and 31 invalid. The recall effort was defeated by 310 votes, 0.76% of the total.

Seattle socialist Kshama Sawant keeps city council seat after recall election | Seattle | The Guardian
Though a recount request is possible, it is considered unlikely.

“For us to have overcome that in this spectacular manner really speaks to not only the organizational strength of our campaign, of Socialist Alternative, of working people in general, but also the political ideas on which this victory has been based,” Sawant told the Guardian on Friday.

The recall result for Sawant – who became the first socialist on the Seattle council in nearly a century after she beat out a Democrat and 16-year incumbent in 2013 – was viewed as a win for progressives and a rebuff of big business.
The article then noted CA Gov Gavin Newsom's surviving a recall attempt of him. He survived surprisingly well, better than was expected from the polls. That made the Democratic governor-race loss in Virginia and almost-loss in New Jersey rather surprising to me. It is also not much mentioned in discussions of VA and NJ.
But with a significant subsection of residents in Sawant’s district voting to remove her, the result also clarified just how much of a polarizing figure she has remained.

The recall effort was based on claims that she opened city hall to demonstrators during a protest, disregarding Covid-19 restrictions, used city resources for a “Tax Amazon” effort, and led a march to Seattle mayor Jenny Durkan’s home despite the address being protected under state confidentiality laws.

The Kshama Solidarity Campaign has pushed back on the charges, and Sawant said the recall was rather an “attempt to have a do-over of the election result in 2019 which big business did not like”.

She added: “In reality if the rightwing, if big business was allowed to win in this recall [then] they would only be emboldened to go after progressive movements both in Seattle and nationally.”
 

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Far-left Councilmember Kshama Sawant retains seat after recall attempt | Fox News - "Sawant, a 48-year-old economics professor, is the longest-tenured council member in Seattle."

Certified — Sawant recall defeated by 310 votes — UPDATE: Party postponed | CHS Capitol Hill Seattle
As for the challenges, response on that front also showed a high level of voter engagement. The tallies included 491 ballots challenged over factors like missing or mismatched signatures, or late arrival. Officials said 68% of voters responded to try to clear up their challenge issue. Another sign? Only 33% of the challenges involved late arriving ballots. In the November general election, officials said that number was a much more typical 52%.

...
Meanwhile, the intense “get out the vote” effort from the Sawant camp included legal “grassroots voting stations” that included ballot printing — but, the campaign said, no “electioneering” — for voters. About 3% of ballots — around 1,400 — were printed, a much higher rate than typical, KING 5 reports.

“Working people across Seattle have a hard-fought victory to celebrate — a victory 15 months in the making!,” the Kshama Solidarity campaign said in a message to supporters. “Defeating the right-wing recall and their many corporate donors would not have been possible without the thousands of young people, renters, people of color, and working people who made sacrifices so that they could volunteer and donate to this campaign.”
The postponed part was her victory party, postponed because of the COVID-19 Omicron variant.
 

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India Walton Reflects on her Mayoral Campaign - YouTube - interviewed by Cenk Uygur of TYT.

IW wanted to run on the issues, but incumbent Mayor Byron Brown campaigned on IW's personality and socioeconomic status and the like, including outright lies. Like saying that she wanted to fire 100 cops, starting with minorities and women. She wanted alternatives to policing for some cops' jobs, but BB's campaigners repeated it over and over and over.

One news outlet fact-checked that claim about firing cops, but that was no match from the repetition after repetition after repetition of that claim. Cenk Uygur said that he saw lots of cases of news media putting their thumbs on the scale in favor of establishment Democrats against progressives, repeating negative things about progressives more often than about establishment candidates, and saying that it was "Just Asking Questions".

BB's campaign talked about IW's overdue parking tickets, and IW called parking tickets "predatory" and "budget-gap fillers". She claimed that BB has likely never driven a car in 16 years. She said that BB is very disconnected with the concerns of large numbers of Buffalonians, despite having been mayor for so long. One newspaper called her a "hood rat". Some Democratic Party officials said that she was like David Duke and Donald Trump.

IW said that it's important to control the narrative. AOC has said that also, and she recalled Nancy Pelosi and other leading Democrats being meekly silent after attack after attack after attack. She was determined not to let that happen to her.

IW said that Buffalo is 65% Democratic, and that Republicans usually don't run a challenger. They didn't do that this time around, but instead supported BB in his write-in sore-loser campaign.

IW got the Democrats' vote by a small margin, but a lot of Republicans and conservatives turned out for BB as a rejection of her.

She says that she needs some time to heal, but that she would continue being an activist.

Then "socialist" vs "democratic socialism". She said that "socialism" is more about caring for people and how governments are to be involved in that, than any specific ideology. During the campaign, some people claimed that she was a Communist and that she wanted to seize people's private property. This included some labor leaders and pastors.

IW then revealed that she got a nice note from someone very surprising: Barack Obama. It was about losing a seemingly won election.
 

lpetrich

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2 decades of left turns | The Week

Starting off with Rep. Barbara Lee's opposition to the Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) of 2001.
Back in 2001, Lee was one of a tiny handful of members of Congress that could be said to be on the left. Today, things are different. There is quite a large caucus of progressives within the Democratic Party with similar politics to hers, and even a handful of self-identified socialists to her left. Despite his previous record as a sellout centrist, President Biden has turned out to be the most left-wing president since Lyndon Johnson at least (though that isn't saying much).

It's been a rough 20 years for America, but the best 20 years for the left since it was brutally crushed by the McCarthyite anti-communist frenzy in the late 1940s and early '50s. As a millennial approaching middle age, I watched this all happen in real-time. It's a good moment to check in on how a small but significant leftist movement has been built centered around younger people, and examine its prospects for the future.
Then talking about the election of George Bush II, the Iraq War, the financial crisis of 2008, and the Obama Admin's inadequate response to that crisis, despite Barack Obama saying nice things when he campaigned. By early 2010, the Obama Admin was supporting deficit hawkery, and the 10% unemployment rate on Election Day gave him a crushing defeat in the midterm elections. Obamacare was a step forward, but a very inadequate one.

The Occupy Wall Street movement emerged as a protest of the inadequacy of the Obama Admin's actions: Occupy Wall Street at 10: It Was Annoying, But It Changed the World It was a flop.

The Black Lives Matter movement also emerged during the Obama years, as a response to excessively brutal policing. It has had more staying power.

Then Bernie Sanders's Presidential campaigns of 2016. He did remarkably well, even though he was defeated by an establishment Democrat, Hillary Clinton. She, in turn, was defeated by a boorish, bigoted reality-TV host.
 

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When Clinton lost, membership in the Democratic Socialists of America exploded, turning it from a semi-moribund organization for theorists and aging activists into a serious political force practically overnight. While still small in total numbers, DSA has made significant political inroads, especially in New York state, where it was a key force breaking Andrew Cuomo's stranglehold on power.

Sanders, of course, lost his primary fight against Joe Biden in 2020, though for a couple of weeks he was within a whisker of clinching the nomination. It took a major behind-the-scenes effort — above all one more cynical move from Obama to convince the delegate frontrunner to drop out and endorse Biden — to stave Sanders off.

That brings us to the present day: The American left has a serious national presence for the first time since the 1940s, a toehold in Congress, and a significant presence in many state governments. One byproduct is a truly enormous partisan age gap — probably the largest in American history, and one that was important for Biden's victory in 2020. What's more, the reason his presidency has been a relative success compared to Obama's, especially when accounting for his tiny margins in Congress, is because leftist academics and scholars have successfully argued that Obama's turn to austerity was a colossal error, and because today the Democrats have a committed core of genuine leftists who bolster the party by trying to force it live up to its promises. The real disloyal Democrats are on the party's right in the form of senators like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who demand that instead it betray its own constituents again on behalf of their big donors.
But does this new left have staying power. Author Ryan Cooper isn't very sure. "More importantly, what traditionally happens in American history when there is any serious leftist political movement is it is smashed through a combination of state repression and racist vigilante violence." pointing to the Redemption counterrevolution that destroyed Reconstruction, and the Red Scares of 1920 and 1950.

Both Red Scares were provoked by Communists taking over elsewhere in the world. In 1920, by the Bolsheviks taking over Russia and establishing the Soviet Union. In 1950, by the Soviet Union imposing Communism on Eastern Europe and Communists taking over China. "Who lost China?" became a big issue. Korea seemed to be next, but North Korea was defeated until Communist China sent over a million troops across the border.

Curiously, the author didn't describe the most recent era of left-wing prominence: the Sixties Era.
Today, Republicans are openly announcing that they intend to replicate the McCarthy formula by whipping up a shrieking moral panic over "woke" phrases and "critical race theory," by which they mean anything that discusses racism whatsoever. Party apparatchiks are drawing up long lists of crimethink to be banned from the classroom, and laws that legalize running down protesters with your car.

Donald Trump, emboldened by Biden's complete failure to prosecute him for attempting to overturn the election in 2020, is plotting to do the same thing again in 2024. Should Republicans reclaim national power, I would expect a further crackdown on leftism of any sort — particularly antifa (one of whom was executed in public by what amounted to a death squad) and Black Lives Matter. It will be open season on any leftist protest for police and right-wing terrorist groups, who are increasingly hard to distinguish.

The future isn't set in stone, but unless the Biden administration and congressional Democrats do something to protect democracy and America's civil rights, the relative toleration the left has enjoyed since 2000 will come to an end. But there's still time to recognize that American democracy needs the left as much as the left needs democratic freedoms.

 Cyclical theory (United States history) - US history goes through progressive and conservative phases. The first three - the Revolution, Jefferson, and Jackson Eras - essentially faded into their following conservative phases: Federalism, Good Feelings, and Slaveowner Dominance. The next three ended with hostility from some of the more conservative parts of society: Civil War, Progressive, and New Deal. The Civil War was followed by Reconstruction but that was destroyed by white-supremacist counterrevolutionaries, and northerners did not do much to stop it. So it was cut short. The Progressive Era and the New Deal Era both lasted as long as other liberal eras, so they had the misfortune of Communist advances occurring at the end of them. The Sixties Era lasted from the early sixties to the late seventies, and it also faded.
 

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IW said that Buffalo is 65% Democratic, and that Republicans usually don't run a challenger. They didn't do that this time around, but instead supported BB in his write-in sore-loser campaign.
IW got the Democrats' vote by a small margin, but a lot of Republicans and conservatives turned out for BB as a rejection of her.
In a democracy, should not all citizens get a say in their government and not just the members of the majority party?
You dismiss BB's campaign as "sore loser", but he actually enjoyed the support of the majority of Buffaloans, while IW did not. Without the write-in campaign, there would be a distinctly anti-democratic outcome in that election. That illustrates the flaw of the current partisan primary system, especially in polities where one of the major two parties has a virtually insurmountable advantage. Something like a jungle primary is a better system I think.

Then "socialist" vs "democratic socialism". She said that "socialism" is more about caring for people and how governments are to be involved in that, than any specific ideology.
Words have meanings. She does not get to pretend they mean whatever she wants them to mean.
IW is a member of DSA, and DSA definitely understand socialism as public ownership of means of production.
DSA Constitution & Bylaws
DSA Constitution and Bylaws said:
Article II. Purpose
We are socialists because we reject an economic order based on private profit, alienated labor, gross inequalities of wealth and power, discrimination based on race, sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, disability status, age, religion, and national origin, and brutality and violence in defense of the status quo. We are socialists because we share a vision of a humane social order based on popular control of resources and production, economic planning, equitable distribution, feminism, racial equality and non-oppressive relationships. We are socialists because we are developing a concrete strategy for achieving that vision, for building a majority movement that will make democratic socialism a reality in America. We believe that such a strategy must acknowledge the class structure of American society and that this class structure means that there is a basic conflict of interest between those sectors with enormous economic power and the vast majority of the population.
Quite different than just "caring for people", don't you think?

During the campaign, some people claimed that she was a Communist and that she wanted to seize people's private property. This included some labor leaders and pastors.
Well, that is consistent with DSA positions, and she is a member.
 

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Despite his previous record as a sellout centrist, President Biden has turned out to be the most left-wing president since Lyndon Johnson at least (though that isn't saying much).
That is my chief complaint about Biden. He ran as a moderate, but has allowed the Squad and other leftists (like Pramila Jayapal) to push him to the left. He ran on restoring status quo ante, not on "transformative change" or adding trillions in new Squad-approved entitlements.

The Black Lives Matter movement also emerged during the Obama years, as a response to excessively brutal policing. It has had more staying power.
#BLM movement did not emerge because of "excessively brutal policing" but because activists and compliant media were pushing false narratives about police shootings. "Gentle giant". "Spreading the word of Jesus Christ". "Hands up, don't shoot". All BS.
 

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More importantly, what traditionally happens in American history when there is any serious leftist political movement is it is smashed through a combination of state repression and racist vigilante violence.
Ah yes. A socialist revolution was just around the corner if not for "state repression" and allegedly "'racist' vigilante violence".
Never mind that in the 60s and 70s, the most recent lefty period of US politics, "racist vigilante violence" came from leftist groups like Black Panthers (overtly Maoist), Black Liberation Army, Weather Underground and similar left-wing radical groups.
And today, most violence is from leftist groups. #BLMers (movement started by two "trained Marxists") have been burning down businesses since 2014, often joined by Antifas (whose origin is as the paramilitary organ of the German Communist Party) especially in whiter cities like Portland.
 

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Where are they now?

Rachel Ventura ran for IL-11 in 2020, and lost to incumbent Bill Foster 41.3-58.7%. She is running again, but for the IL State Senate.

Nabilah Islam ran for GA-07 in 2020, and placed third with 12.3%. Carolyn Bourdeaux won with 52.8% and Brenda Lopez Romero got 12.4%. The others got 8.0%, 7.7%, and 6.8%. She also is running again, but for the GA State Senate. ‘Georgia’s AOC’ aims for state Senate seat in Gwinnett
She finished in third-place in the Democratic primary and floated the possibility of a fresh challenge against Bourdeaux, whose centrist policies have infuriated some on the party’s left flank.

Instead, Islam’s Georgia Senate run will set up a proxy fight between the two competing U.S. House members. Moore was endorsed by Bourdeaux shortly after she launched her campaign, while McBath on Tuesday announced her support for Islam.

“Right now it is more important than ever to have a strong fighter like Nabilah in the state Legislature,” said McBath. “Nabilah will never back down from doing what is right for Gwinnett.”
 

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India Walton has returned to activism, supporting others' candidacies in the Working Families Party - Fighting for an America that works for the many, not the few.

India Walton gains new role with Working Families Party | Buffalo Politics News | buffalonews.com
India B. Walton, the community activist who stunned incumbent Byron W. Brown in last year's Democratic primary for mayor only to lose the general election, has been appointed to a post in the state Working Families Party.

The left-leaning minor party announced Monday that Walton, a former nurse, will become senior adviser for special projects, charged with advancing issue priorities in the State Legislature, local issues in Buffalo and Rochester, and help recruit, train, elect and support political candidates at the local and state level.

“The Working Families Party brings together the best of social movement and political organizing to change working people’s lives for the better,” Walton said. “I’m so excited to work with the WFP to build power for the multiracial working class and elect a new generation of progressive leaders in this state.”
India Walton, Former Buffalo Mayoral Candidate, To Join New York Progressive Group | HuffPost Latest News
“I would describe it as a perfect platform to continue the work that was started during the campaign,” Walton said. “The campaign is over but the issues still exist in Buffalo and Western New York, and all the places our electeds so fondly call ‘upstate.’”

...
“I didn’t make all of these sacrifices and our team didn’t do all of the work of exciting and recruiting thousands of volunteers and supporters in order to just pack up shop and go away,” she said.
India Walton takes on a new job with NY Working Families Party | wgrz.com
"India Walton can't go away," she said in an interview with Two On Your Side's Claudine Ewing. "I'm always going to be a strong advocate for what's just and what's right."

...
"I'll continue to work locally, but I am going to work hand in hand with the progressive slate, the city council slate in Rochester and I'll also be doing quite a bit of work at the state level, advocating for budget priority legislation to be passed that benefits working-class people," she said.

Her job will also keep her busy recruiting and training grassroots candidates "who want to carry progressive values of the Working Families Party."

She believes her mayoral campaign accomplished a lot. "It really shined a bright light on Buffalo as a hotbed of labor and progressive activism. We are watching Starbucks workers unionize. We saw CWA nurses and healthcare workers on strike. We saw a true grassroots that was led initially by volunteers and people were really excited, that is a momentum that we can not allow to dwindle off."

When it was all over, Walton received a note from President Barack Obama."I'm proud of the way I've grown as an individual and that sort of put the final stamp of approval that I was doing the right thing."

She is not ruling out running for office in the future but admits it was a lot for her family to endure. "If there is a mandate from the community if it is strategic and makes sense then I'm willing to try again."
She ought to make Byron Brown regret running his sore-loser campaign, by making BB wish that she was the mayor, because she will cause less trouble that way. Like what LBJ once said about J. Edgar Hoover, "It's probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."
 

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About WFP - Working Families Party
The American political system is rigged to favor the two major parties.

But the Working Families Party is building our own party on top of the two-party system in the United States — and its working. We organize outside the two parties, and then we recruit and train people-powered candidates up and down the ballot and run them to win.

Sometimes we run candidates through Democratic Party primaries, and other times we run candidates on our own. We take on elections from city council to U.S. Senate — wherever there’s a path to win, and where winning will advance a people’s agenda, elevate visionary candidates, and help build the multiracial movement we need to win the America we deserve.
That makes sense - support a Democrat if that D agrees with WFP's platform.

The WFP has branches in several states, and it is mainly involved in local and state races, though it also supports some Congressional candidates. From its site: CA, CO, CT, DE, GA, NJ, NM, NY, PA, RI, TX, WI

It's being what a third party ought to be, and not what the Green Party is, mainly a supporter of vanity Presidential runs.
 

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“Progressive” CEO Self-Funds $3.7 Million - The People's Party - 2021 Dec 15
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick of FL-20, supported by Brand New Congress, the recruiter of AOC.
“Progressive” Buys Win in Florida

In a recent special election in Florida’s 20th district, self-proclaimed “progressive” Democrat and Healthcare industry CEO, Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick, spent a whopping $3.7 million on her own race and only raised less than $22,000 in small-dollar contributions. Even if candidates like Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick refuse to take corporate dollars, many of these candidates hold high directorships in larger corporations and own large investment portfolios.

Like a third of Congressional candidates, Cherfilus-Mccormick refused to publish state-required public financial disclosures. The joke’s on voters as millionaire candidates can skip out on ethically reporting any possible conflicts of interests and pay only minimal fines to state authorities.

Despite her self-funding and refusal to disclose, Cherfilus-Mccormick was touted as a “progressive” by endorsing organizations like Brand New Congress. So many of the once “progressive” organizations and representatives that touted robust reforms under the Trump administration have shifted the goalposts to align with the neo-liberal center under the Democratic Party majority and uphold Biden’s toothless policies.
I decided to fact-check it. I went to CHERFILUS-MCCORMICK, SHEILA - Candidate overview | FEC - covering Jan 1 to Dec 22 of 2021.

She raised some $6.0 M, and $5.9 M was loans from herself. Other contributions were $135 K. She spent $2.7 M on her campaign and she paid herself back $2.0 M. Her average campaign contribution is also rather sizable: nearly $600. Her main opponent, Dale Holness, had an average of $1,200. By comparison, AOC has an average of around $200 with a median that is likely smaller -- most of her campaign contributions are <= $200, while for both SCMC and DH, campaign contributions larger than $2000 are about 2/3 of the money.
 

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India Walton has returned to activism, supporting others' candidacies in the Working Families Party - Fighting for an America that works for the many, not the few.
Wasn't that the slogan of the UK Labour Party under Comrade Jeremy?
jeremy_corbyn_labour_inequality.jpeg

Of course, since Corbyn is a raging antisemite, that slogan got quickly parodied as "for the many, not the Jew" ...
She ought to make Byron Brown regret running his sore-loser campaign, by making BB wish that she was the mayor, because she will cause less trouble that way. Like what LBJ once said about J. Edgar Hoover, "It's probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."
Again you with the "sore-loser campaign". The candidate more people in the city of Buffalo supported won, despite the structural disadvantages of running a write-in campaign. That shows just how undemocratic the partisan primary system is, especially where one party has a (near) monopoly in the general election.
 

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Speaking of playing the race card...
Islam is not a race. It's a religion. It's a set of beliefs and practices. Unlike race, religion is a choice.

I just pointed out the irony that Islam does not seem to be practicing Islam. :)
 

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If this article is acurate description of Islam's candidacy, it consists mostly of playing the race card. I hope she loses.
How is her candidacy "playing the race card"?
(that AJC article on NI) said:
“I act with urgency because I know what it’s like to be told to wait,” Islam said in her debut video. “To wait for healthcare because we can’t afford it. To wait to run for office because that’s not something that young people in office are supposed to do.”

Islam, 32, embraced the label as “Georgia’s AOC” after she earned U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement during her unsuccessful 2020 run for U.S. House. The Lawrenceville native campaigned for “Medicare for all” and a $15-an-hour minimum wage in that campaign.
That's not exactly hiding behind one's identity.
Derec said:
P.S.: You gotta be kidding me on her name, although she really looks more like AOC than real Muslims like Ilhan Omar and Rana Abdelhamd ...
Why is that?

If you are talking about wearing a hijab, then NI is like AOC in being bare-headed, and unlike IO and RAH, who both wear hijabs. Though IO often wears turbans.
 

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Talk about misfortunes.
Mckayla Wilkes for Congress on Twitter: "I just tested positive for Covid-19. ..." / Twitter
I just tested positive for Covid-19.

I've been sick for >3 days (fever, chills, shortness of breath, no appetite) but initially had a negative result from a take-home test.

I'm starting to feel better now. I have multiple underlying conditions & this could’ve been way worse...

I believe it's entirely possible that the vaccine saved my life. Please, please get vaccinated.

We also need to make it easier to get a PCR test. It should not require standing through the pain in a line for two hours in the cold.
She's running against Steny Hoyer in MD-05.

I remember when Cori Bush caught the disease. She survived.
 

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Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick defeats Jason Mariner in race for District 20 Congressional seat
“I am so excited and humbled to be elected as the next Congresswoman for District 20,” Cherfilus-McCormick said. “As your next Congresswoman, I promise, I vow to make sure that everyone has an opportunity to live in this great country.”

...
“I commit myself and promise and fight to ensure that everyone can live in this society and move ourselves forward,” Cherfilus-McCormick said.
Her Republican opponent was Jason Mariner.
Ten miles north at Galuppi’s in Pompano Beach, Mariner, whose platform was pushing for school choice and public safety, spoke to supporters after coming up short with only 20 percent of the vote.

“People are supposed to have a fair shake at choosing who governs them and they didn’t get that,” Mariner said.
SCMC will be the first Haitian-American Democrat in Congress.

Florida Special Election Results: 20th Congressional District - The New York Times - SCMC won against JM 78.7% - 19.6%, with the other candidates getting 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5%.

2021 Florida Special Primary Election Results: 20th Congressional District - The New York Times

Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick wins Florida special election to succeed Alcee Hastings | TheHill
 

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Dale Holness, who lost to SCMC by 5 votes, plans to run again. Dale Holness, still appealing CD 20 loss, files for 2022 rematch
Papers filed Nov. 29 show he will be a candidate in the 2022 Democratic Primary Aug. 23 for the General Election on Nov. 8.

Holness did not return an inquiry about his plans, but Cherfilus-McCormick released a statement through her spokeswoman Friday.

“It will certainly be an uphill battle for Mr. Holness who will be going against me as an incumbent — while he holds no elected position,” the statement read. “So I wish him the best of luck.”

Back in December,
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick talks her primary win and 'tantrum' from former opponents | WPEC
Cherfilus - McCormick's campaign widely advertised the People's Prosperity Plan, a spending package that would provide $1,000 stimulus payments to Americans, similar to the checks provided by the federal government during the worst of the COVID shutdowns.

Ads about the plan blanketed TV and Cherfilus - McCormick lawn signs proudly displayed the pledge "$1,000 a month for you." Opponents have criticized that language as false advertising.

"Its crazy to think that because we had the People’s Prosperity Plan on the bottom [of the ads]. And, anyone who reached out, we talked to them about the plan, we explained the plan to them. So, it was never an intention of having anyone believe that 'oh you just vote and you get the money,'" Cherfilus - McCormick responded when asked about the allegations.

...
"Knowing what those issues are, how they touch and concern the people, that should be paramount. Not Dale [Holness] throwing a tantrum and suing," she told CBS 12 News.
DH claimed that SCMC's campaign "mislead, manipulated, and shammed voters to the extend that several voters believed that they would be picking up $1,000 checks on Election Day." -- if one applied that standard to most politicians' campaiging, who would survive?

SCMC responded with "We don’t get 'where's my thousand dollars?' What I do get is, 'I'm happy you’re going to fight for me.'"
 

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Centrist Democrats urge progressives to tamp down rhetoric | TheHill
None other than the party's 2016 presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, has said liberals risk costing their party precious political power by pandering to voters in areas that are already Democratic, with little to no risk of swaying the control of Washington.

“I think that it is a time for some careful thinking about what wins elections, and not just in deep-blue districts where a Democrat and a liberal Democrat, or so-called progressive Democrat, is going to win,” Clinton told NBC News in a recent interview, effectively throwing a grenade into the longest running intraparty debate in recent cycles.
She *lost* some elections, and she campaigned as center-left, not left-wing.
“Winning elections is not about looking good. It’s about being good,” Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) told The Hill on Tuesday.

“If Democrats brought home expansive climate action, a federal minimum wage of at least $15, paid leave, police reform, and ‘Medicare for All,’ we would win in a landslide,” she said. “The problem is that these are not getting done, year after year, even while basic necessities like housing and health care keep getting more and more expensive.”

“The path forward is to actually enact policies that address the pain people are feeling across the country, not pretend that pain doesn't exist,” Bush said.
Bernie Sanders:
“I think the Democratic Party has to address the long-simmering debate, which is: Which side are you on?” Sanders said in an interview with The Guardian this week. “Are we prepared to stand with working families and take on powerful corporate interests?”
Then Build Back Better.
“When conservative Democrats have repeatedly ripped apart the president’s agenda while progressives fight to save it, it’s frankly bizarre to watch the media conversation focus on the risks of ‘going too far left,’” said Leah Greenberg, co-executive director of the left-wing group Indivisible.

“How can these conservative Democrats claim to be pragmatic while torpedoing proposals that enjoy the support of huge majorities of Americans?” Greenberg said. “Calls to avoid going ‘too far left’ only distract from the real problem we face: the risk of failing to deliver on the promises we've made to voters.”
 

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And they are right.

She *lost* some elections, and she campaigned as center-left, not left-wing.
She lost her election not because she was insufficiently left-wing but because she is a bad campaigner who tried to make it all about her gender. And her team made some strategic blunders like not focusing enough on the Midwest thinking the Blue Wall would hold.

By the way, there are some who want to see her run again.
Hillary Clinton’s 2024 Election Comeback
LMAO! Although a rematch would be interesting, I do not see it happening.

“Winning elections is not about looking good. It’s about being good,” Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) told The Hill on Tuesday.
That's the kind of platitude that doesn't mean anything. What is so good about Cori Bush anyway?

“If Democrats brought home expansive climate action, a federal minimum wage of at least $15, paid leave, police reform, and ‘Medicare for All,’ we would win in a landslide,” she said. “The problem is that these are not getting done, year after year, even while basic necessities like housing and health care keep getting more and more expensive.”
Doubtful. It would be a major overreach and Dems would loose.
Most of these policies are just very expensive government spending and things like "police reform", as the left wing "defund caucus" conceives it, would help the criminals, not the regular people.

Bernie Sanders said:
“I think the Democratic Party has to address the long-simmering debate, which is: Which side are you on?” Sanders said in an interview with The Guardian this week. “Are we prepared to stand with working families and take on powerful corporate interests?”
Why only "working families"? What about hard-working individuals?
This obsession with "families" to exclusion of individuals is what irks me about far right ("family values" etc.) and the far left.

“When conservative Democrats have repeatedly ripped apart the president’s agenda while progressives fight to save it, it’s frankly bizarre to watch the media conversation focus on the risks of ‘going too far left,’” said Leah Greenberg, co-executive director of the left-wing group Indivisible.
The thing is that it is not really Biden's agenda. The $3.5T bill is just a somewhat watered-down version of Bernie's $6T bill. It also includes elements from AOC's GND like the ominously dubbed "civilian climate corps". B3 is really a bill from the left-wing of the party, so it is hardly surprising that so-called "progressives" support it while the moderates are more luke-warm about it or outright oppose it in the case of Manchin.

“How can these conservative Democrats claim to be pragmatic while torpedoing proposals that enjoy the support of huge majorities of Americans?”
The thing is, most people are in favor of free money. They do not spend much time thinking of consequences of such largess.
Same thing goes for that Florida woman (Sheila something or other) and her plan to bribe voters with promises of "free" $1k per month.
 

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How is her candidacy "playing the race card"?
Because she is trying to make everything about "people of color". That kind of othering is not good for the country.

That's not exactly hiding behind one's identity.
You did not quote the right parts. How about this:
AJC said:
Islam, the child of Bangladeshi immigrants, emphasized her background as she opened her campaign.
“I have lived the struggles that so many Georgians face every day. But often, when people my age, especially women and people of color, try to stand up to hold our politicians accountable, we are told to sit down and wait,” she said.
The whole paragraph is nothing but identity politics! Earlier in the article she mentioned "racial justice" which in parlance of the Left means identity politics, racial preferences, placing restrictions on policing so fewer black people get arrested etc.

Why is that?
If you are talking about wearing a hijab, then NI is like AOC in being bare-headed, and unlike IO and RAH, who both wear hijabs. Though IO often wears turbans.
Yeah, I mean the hijab and beyond that the normal western dress. I just found it ironic that she was named "Islam" but does not really follow it.
 

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I recently found this tidbit:

Shukri Abdirahman on Twitter: "To defeat Ilhan Omar I am going to need an Army of activists.
It is going to be hard work, but together we WILL defeat her in November.
Please help us spread the word. Help this Army Veteran preserve our children’s future! (pic link)" / Twitter


Then
rara on Twitter: "Funny, I thought a "conservative Muslim" is exactly what Republicans are afraid of lol. Seems like an extremely weird brand to run on, but whatever secures those future speaking fees at the RNC or whatever!" / Twitter

Then
Rayyvana🚀 on Twitter: "@islandgoth Super serious campaign! (link)" / Twitter

With a screenshot from SAR's Twitter page:
Shukri Abdirahman (@ShuForCongress) / Twitter
I'm a Conservative running to defeat Ilhan Omar and save our country. Mother of three. Army Veteran. I love God and my country. #ShuForCongress
CAMPAIGN WEBSITE COMING SOON
Joined September 2021

Seems like the MCC gambit.

MCC is Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a Caribbean Hispanic woman with a hyphenated name who ran in 2020 against AOC, a Caribbean Hispanic woman with a hyphenated name.

SAR is an Somali Muslim woman who fled civil war in her homeland who is running against IO, a Somali Muslim woman who fled civil war in her homeland.

(source: Jan 11 tweet in ShuForCongress)
 

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Pro-Trump candidate in Florida is blaming election fraud for his humiliating defeat - Raw Story - Celebrating 17 Years of Independent Journalism
Democratic Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won with 78.7%, while Republican Jason Mariner got only 19.6% with the remaining 1.7% divided among 3 other candidates. However,
While McCormick was expected to win in the heavily Democratic district, her GOP rival Jason Mariner filed a lawsuit claiming there was a problem with the ballots in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

"Now they called the race, I did not win, so they say, but that does not mean that they lost either, it does not mean that we lost," said Mariner.

“And we’ll also have some stuff coming out that we’ve recently discovered,” he said.
Seems like an incoherent assessment.
Writing for MSNBC, Steve Benen contends that while the merits of Mariner's lawsuit will play out in court, it could be a worrisome sign that more and more Republican politicians will claim voter fraud or irregularities as a means to challenge their election losses in the future.

"What matters here is not just conspiracy theories, pointless litigation, and partisan whining about voters' verdicts," Benen writes. "Rather, the far more unsettling concern is the establishment of a new normal in Republican politics — one in which the only election results many in the GOP consider legitimate are the ones in which Democratic candidates lose."

I checked on Florida's 20th Congressional District - Ballotpedia
SCMC's late predecessor, Alcee Hastings, won with similar margins in earlier elections.
  • 2020: 78.7% - 21.3%
  • 2018: (no challenger)
  • 2016: 80.3% - 19.7%
  • 2014: 81.6% - 18.4%
  • 2012: 87.9% - 12.1%
  • 2010: 79.1% - 20.9%
  • 2008: 82.2% - 17.8%
  • 2006: (no challenger)
  • 2004: (no challenger)
  • 2002: 77.5% - 22.5%
  • 2000: 76.3% - 23.7%
  • 1998: (no challenger)
  • 1996: 73.5% - 26.5%
  • 1994: (no challenger)
  • 1992: 58.5% - R 31.1% - I 10.3%
So SCMC's victory this year was a typical-sized victory for a Democratic candidate in her district.

SCMC challenged AH in the 2018 and 2020 primaries, without much success.
  • 2020: 30.7% - 69.3%
  • 2018: 26.2% - 73.8%
 

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Moderate and conservative dems are just like everyone else - they desire to be reelected. And progressives have a tendency to be easily demoralized and not motivated to vote in off cycle years. If the progressives want all their programs passed, they need to demonstrate that they won't scurry away after every two years.
 

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What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.
 

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What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.
So, Biden's done a pretty appreciable job of a lot of it. Way better than Obama to be sure, even if the senate lacks clear leverage.
 

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What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.
Well, I shouldn't have said scurring away. I didn't mean to insult. But politicians are people, just like you and I. They are going to work the hardest for their customers (voters) that they can depend upon. And recent history (under Clinton and Obama) shows that the far left doesn't show up to vote in off years very well. Of course politicians are going to nervous in going all in. I don't know if BBB is going to pass this year. Don't know. I promise you that if the dems can increase their tent in 2022, that it will get passed.
 

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Ellie Mystal is a racist who thinks black jurors should nullify any trial with a white victim.
Here’s How Black People Could Use Jury Nullification To Break The Justice System
I also remember him saying that he thinks that police should be prosecuted for "murder" if the perp they shoot is armed with a realistic replica gun or even an empty real firearm because in hindsight there was no danger. As if police were clairvoyant!


Moderate Dems are allowed to have their own policy positions. They are not required to blindly follow the Bernie/AOC wing of the Party like Biden chose to do.

Usually because of overreach.

And they are too radical.

I note that because if the Democrats lose the House this year, the more centrist and conservative ones will blame the more progressive and their policies. Something like what happened in 2020.

And they would be right. We already spent trillions on COVID relief (some of it misaimed or lasted too long) and infrastructure (admittedly, much needed) and the "progressives" want to spend more trillions on a smörgåsbord of new spending like expanded child tax credit. And that in midst of worst inflation in 40 years.
 

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he thinks that police should be prosecuted for "murder" if the perp they shoot is armed with a realistic replica gun or even an empty real firearm because in hindsight there was no danger. As if police were clairvoyant
So, there is the very real fact that no individual bearing such a replica or empty firearm that has ever shot a bullet.

I don't expect police to be clairvoyant but I do expect them to be reactive rather than strike first, even with bullets.

They can know it's not time to shoot yet because there hasn't been a "bang" sound.

Even if it means some of them get hurt and die.

If that's what being a cop had been about I'd be a cop today.
 

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So, there is the very real fact that no individual bearing such a replica or empty firearm that has ever shot a bullet.
But you can never know until they shoot, and by then it's too late.

I don't expect police to be clairvoyant but I do expect them to be reactive rather than strike first, even with bullets.
When threatened with a gun (or a replica) response with lethal force is appropriate.

They can know it's not time to shoot yet because there hasn't been a "bang" sound.
Even if it means some of them get hurt and die.
Cops are expected to take on reasonable risk to life and limb. Not unreasonable level of risk.
You want to see more dead cops (and civilians too, as often perps pull their guns on other civilians) and fewer dead criminals. I think it should be the other way around. You pull a gun during a commission of a crime (e.g. a robbery) and you are fair game to be shot. Even before actually firing at police or civilians.
As far as I know, Malik Faisal Akram did not fire his weapon. Nevertheless, it is better he is dead than that any of the hostages of responding officer were injured or worse. The terrorist made his bed, and he needs to lie in it. Not other people.

If that's what being a cop had been about I'd be a cop today.

austindanger.gif
 

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you can never know until they shoot, and by then it's too late.
So, yeah, sometimes the bad actor shoots and it ends up too late for one person, perhaps the only person to respond.

Given that even officers have shit aim, and they practice all the time, it's generally not too late even then.

Also given that they are armored, this is yet another contingency.


When threatened with a gun (or a replica) response with lethal force is appropriate.
No, response with the brandishing of your firearm and a movement to the side, preferably with a good fake of they raise it, would be appropriate.

Anything else would be preemptive.

We give them armor to not be preemptive.

There are perhaps some corner cases like, Mexican standoff bluff style cases, but those are details from the subject of the common case.
Malik Faisal Akram
A known attacker with a known playbook shot by the FBI because he was under investigation and had made preparations for an attack.
 

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Florida U.S. House candidate sues to get primary loss erased | AP News - November 30, 2021
Dale Holness alleges Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s support of a proposal that would pay most U.S. adults $1,000 a month was an attempt to illegally bribe voters. His lawsuit also wants counted 18 overseas mail-in ballots received from military members and others that were rejected by elections officials because they arrived after Election Day and, officials said, didn’t qualify for an extension. He also says Cherfilus-McCormick should be disqualified because she did not file a financial disclosure form with the U.S. House.
DH objected that one of SCMC's campaign promises is essentially bribing the voters. But that can be said of *any* campaign promise.

The two are headed for a rematch this year.

Checking on Federal Election Commission filings, all these Reps are running for re-election: AOC, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Marie Newman, Mondaire Jones, Pramila Jaypal, Katie Porter.

-

Looking at AOC's recruiter, Brand New Congress, it is now supporting 22 candidates, 3 for the Senate, all newcomers, and 19 for the House, 5 incumbents and 14 newcomers.

BNC's offshoot Justice Democrats is now supporting 6 candidates, all newcomers and all for the House. BNC and JD have 1 cross-endorsement: Jessica Cisneros.

Both PAC's are supporting about half as many candidates as they did in 2020, at least at this time.
 

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Jessica Cisneros is running against Henry Cuellar in TX-28, and the primary election is on March 1, a little more than a month away. But HC has gotten some bad publicity recently.

Henry Cuellar says he’s cooperating with FBI investigation | The Texas Tribune
The FBI was on the scene Wednesday near the Laredo home of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar for what authorities described as a court-authorized ongoing investigation.

FBI spokesperson Rosanne Hughes confirmed law enforcement’s presence in the area but did not clarify what authorities were investigating.

Hughes said in a statement that the FBI was present on two streets around Cuellar’s house in Laredo “conducting court-authorized law enforcement activity.”

“The FBI cannot provide further comment on an ongoing investigation,” she said.

On Wednesday evening, Cuellar’s office released a statement: “Congressman Cuellar will fully cooperate in any investigation. He is committed to ensuring that justice and the law are upheld.”

FBI probe targets Rep. Cuellar’s home, campaign HQ in Laredo | MyRGV.com
At Cuellar’s home, located in the 8200 block of Estate Drive, federal vehicles were seen with cases and other items taken from the congressman’s house as over two dozen agents filed in and out of the residence Wednesday afternoon.

Two agents with a clipboard and camera in hand snapped photos of the trucks parked out front. The truck was again photographed and searched by agents using flashlights after the sun set.

Some activity was also observed outside the campaign office on Davis and Washington Ave. in the afternoon hours. Several government vehicles were parked outside. Two of them, a dark colored van and truck, drove later to the residence around 7 p.m. An agent wearing an FBI emblazoned jacket popped out of one of the vehicles and made her way to the home.

FBI conducts law enforcement activities at properties linked to congressman
Witnesses say the downtown office in question where the FBI was seen is 1519 Washington.

That address reportedly houses the Texans for Henry Cuellar offices as well as other separate private businesses.
 

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FBI agents descend on Rep. Henry Cuellar's Texas mansion and campaign headquarters in investigation | Daily Mail Online
  • FBI agents were seen photographing vehicles at Cuellar's home in Laredo
  • They also executed a separate search at office where Cueller's campaign is headquartered
  • Bureau would only confirm it is conducting an 'ongoing investigation'
  • Cuellar said in a statement that he will 'fully cooperate in any investigation'
  • The nature of the investigation remains a mystery closely guarded by the FBI
  • Cuellar is a Democrat who has harshly criticized Biden's border policies
  • He has also called VP Kamala Harris ineffective in her role as 'border czar'
FBI raid jeopardizes Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar's reelection bid | Washington Examiner - "House Republicans are spying a surprise opportunity to flip another Democratic-held district after the Laredo, Texas, home and campaign office of Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar were raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation Wednesday."

Jessica Cisneros is noncommittal:
Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "My full statement regarding yesterday’s events #TX28: (pic link)" / Twitter
We are aware of the news regarding Congressman Cuellar and the active FBI investigation. We are closely watching as this develops. In the meantime, we are focused on our campaign to deliver change to South Texas families and will not be making any additional comments at this time.
 

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Progs POUNCE after the FBI raids the home and campaign office of Texas Dem Rep. Henry Cuellar – twitchy.com - in a right-wing site, but with lots of helpful links.

People for Bernie on Twitter: "Henry Cuellar's house being raided by the FBI? Sadly not very surprising given his low ethics. (link)" / Twitter
noting
Rep. Henry Cuellar Provided Extensive Favors to Border Security Lobbyists - "Perceptics, which sells license plate readers, has tapped Cuellar for favors since 2011. Cuellar faces a competitive primary on Super Tuesday."
Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Texas Democrat, has used his perch in Congress to push for funds for private prisons, drone surveillance, and increased border security enforcement.

The lawmaker has defended his record as part of his duty as a border lawmaker focused on national security, but emails show Cuellar acting at the behest of well-connected lobbyists for a government contractor.
Did HC go a bit too far in being on the take?


Daniel Marans on Twitter: ".@JCisnerosTX, who is challenging Rep. Henry Cuellar a second time, says little about FBI raid on his home.
But @justicedems, which recruited her to run, says in a fundraising email that the "race is blown wide open." (pix link)" / Twitter

That's Justice Democrats, and JD did indeed recruit JC.
 

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The Justice Democrats themselves:

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "The FBI investigation at Congressman Cuellar's home and campaign office is highly concerning. The people of South Texas deserve answers, and the Congressman should be transparent about the purpose of the investigation. What is he hiding? (link)" / Twitter

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "While we don't know the specifics about the investigation, we do know Cuellar has a long history of conducting shady deals and accepting corporate donations from some of the most nefarious actors in the country: private prisons, the Kochs, and Big Oil. (link)" / Twitter


FBI says it's conducting a 'court-authorized' search of Rep. Henry Cuellar's Texas home - CNNPolitics

"The Department of Justice's Public Integrity unit is involved in the investigation, a source familiar with the matter told CNN. The public integrity section handles cases involving elected officials, including campaign finance and other investigations."

Public Integrity Section (PIN) | Department of Justice
"The Public Integrity Section (PIN) oversees the investigation and prosecution of all federal crimes affecting government integrity, including bribery of public officials, election crimes, and other related offenses."

What might be going on here? Being on the take a little too much?
 

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I got an email from ocasiocortez.com a few minutes ago. It was titled

A “Democrat” with a 70% voting record with Trump?

It stated that AOC was making her first endorsement of 2022, Jessica Cisneros for TX-28 against incumbent Henry Cuellar with his voting with Trump 70%.

AOC had also done that back in 2020. Back then, JC lost to HC 48.2% - 51.8%. So JC may have a chance this time.
 

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Lee Fang on Twitter: "The Intercept, using hacked documents leaked online, found that border contractor lobbyists had ghostwritten Rep. Cuellar's letters and coordinated his legislative activity. "Our Cuellar firepower" is how one email described him. (link)" / Twitter
noting
Rep. Henry Cuellar Provided Extensive Favors to Border Security Lobbyists - from 2020 Feb 26 - a link I'd mentioned earlier

Waleed Shahid on Twitter: "“AN ADVISER TO Rep. Henry Cuellar, the conservative Texas Democrat whose home and campaign office was raided by the FBI this week, also leads a dark-money group that recently ran ads against Cuellar’s primary challenger, @JCisnerosTX.” (link)" / Twitter
noting
Henry Cuellar Aide Set Up Dark-Money Group That Boosted Cuellar - Jan 20
The Voter Education Foundation, linked to abortion ban advocates, sponsored ads against the conservative Democrat’s primary challenger, Jessica Cisneros.

An adviser to Rep. Henry Cuellar, the conservative Texas Democrat whose home and campaign office was raided by the FBI this week, also leads a dark-money group that recently ran ads against Cuellar’s primary challenger, Jessica Cisneros, according to Federal Election Commission and corporate records. Colin Strother, a longtime Cuellar aide and a consultant who has been embedded on Cuellar’s campaign, is also the head of the secretive Voter Education Foundation. The staffing overlap reveals Cuellar’s close proximity to one of Texas’s most zealous anti-abortion activists.

Cuellar and his inner circle have aggressively pushed the limits of campaign laws. ...

Strother was Cuellar’s campaign manager last cycle, though FEC records show he worked this year as an outside consultant. He was paid by the campaign in August 2021 — the most recent period for which records are available. Strother’s Twitter account was also mysteriously deactivated.

In December 2021, the group, a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose its donors, sponsored signs and ran a flippant TV ad that called Cisneros the “South Texas Jobs Grinch.” ...

Though Strother was not working for Cuellar’s office in Washington at the time, documents from a court case against Cuellar reveal Strother was involved in high-level staffing and policy discussions with the congressman. ...

Despite Strother’s consulting work for numerous Democratic politicians in Texas, a number of Republican political figures were also involved in the founding of the Voter Education Foundation he directs.
Yes that Colin Strother whose Twitter account @ColinStrother is now mysteriously absent.

Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "Better Jobs Together, ..." / Twitter
Better Jobs Together, the pro-Cuellar group that's been on TV for weeks in #TX28, is cutting from its current buy, per media-tracking sources

People involved in the group have not responded to requests for comment this afternoon

The buy was originally set to go through Jan. 29. It now ends today, per one of those sources #TX28
Then
Daily Kos Elections on Twitter: "@PatrickSvitek Among others, the group previously supported Kyrsten Sinema (vid link)" / Twitter
then
Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "@DKElections Yeah, it backs a number of Dem incumbents" / Twitter

Let's see:
  • The FBI carries off several bags and bins and a computer -- lots of stuff that it wants to look through, it seems.
  • An ad agency cancels pro-JC ads.
  • A long-time JC campaigner goes into hiding.
  • JC has a reputation for going on the brink of campaign finance laws.
Something big must be happening.
 

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Justice Democrats on Twitter: "NEWS: @JCisnerosTX just got endorsed by @AOC. The momentum is growing in South Texas for progressive change.
Chip in a couple bucks or get involved to phonebank today:
(links)" / Twitter



The plot thickens.
Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "This has gotta be oil stuff right (link)" / Twitter
noting
FBI raid on House Democrat's home related to Azerbaijan probe, source says - ABC News
The FBI on Wednesday raided Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar's home and campaign office in Texas as part of a wide-ranging federal probe relating to the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan and several U.S. businessmen, a source familiar with the matter told ABC News.

A federal grand jury in Washington is investigating the matter, but it's unclear if Cuellar is a target of the grand jury's probe, ABC News was told.

...
Cuellar, who represents Texas' 28th Congressional District along the U.S.-Mexico border, has been in Congress since 2005. In recent years he has served as a co-chair of the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus, and repeatedly met with Azerbaijan officials, including the ambassador of Azerbaijan, Elin Suleymanov.
So he has some Azerbaijan connection. That nation is a small ex-Soviet nation on the western shore of the Caspian Sea -- and a big oil producer.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "The Assembly of the Friends of Azerbaijan reportedly played a "special role" in getting Cuellar onto the Congressional Azerbaijani Caucus in 2013 (link)

The same year it was basically acting as a front organization for the SOCAL, the state-owned oil &gas company (pic link)" / Twitter

noting
Four congressmen join U.S. Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus
Azerbaijani Embassy in the U.S. told APA that Congressmen Pete Gallego (Texas), Pete Olson (Texas), Henry Cuellar (Texas) and Robert Aderholt (Alabama) joined the CAC. Thus the number of members has reached 56.

The Embassy also said that US-based Assembly of the Friends of Azerbaijan (AFAZ) played a special role in the involvement of these four congressmen in the CAC.
Why that much interest in Azerbaijan? There aren't a lot of prominent Azeri immigrants AFAIK, and Azeri oil would have to go overland to reach most of the rest of the world, like through Iran or Russia.

Very unlike a neighboring small country, Armenia. I remember a former professor at Cornell University, Yervant Terzian, who was an Armenian, and one of my favorite commentators, Ana Kasparian, is an Armenian. The Kardashian family of professional celebrities is also Armenian-descended.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "Doesn't look like Cuellar was on this SOCAL sponsored Congressional delegation to Baku (!), but some pretty interesting context here (link)" / Twitter
noting
Lawmakers who traveled to Azerbaijan urged action benefiting state oil company that funded trip • OpenSecrets
Several lawmakers caught up in an investigation of their participation in a lavish overseas trip introduced legislation that would benefit the alleged host of their spring 2013 junket – the state-owned Azerbaijani oil company. Additionally, these lawmakers — and others on the trip — have received tens of thousands of dollars in donations from a network of individuals with close ties to two nonprofit organizations to which the oil company allegedly funneled money to pay for the trip.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "Apparently in 2013 he took the same route as his colleagues, funded by the non-profit that was ostensibly sponsoring that Spring delegation. As it happens, that route follows follows a pipeline bringing gas from Azerbaijan to European gas markets (links)" / Twitter
They are thinking about a natural-gas pipeline that would go from Azerbaijan through Turkey to Europe. This pipeline would have to travel through Armenia or Iran along the way, and that may take some tricky politics.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: ""'Given San Antonio’s role as a rapidly growing city with an unlimited export potential, there is vast opportunity to strengthen South Texas’ relationship with Azerbaijan,' said Congressman Cuellar." (link)" / Twitter
noting
Azerbaijan Ambassador and Congressman Henry Cuellar visit UIW community | The Word Online

UIW = University of the Incarnate Word - a Catholic university in San Antonio, TX
 

lpetrich

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Another JD candidate seems to be doing well.
Greg Casar on Twitter: "New @Lake_Research Poll: @GregCasar leads #TX35 primary by nearly 30 points.
Casar - 48%
Rodriguez - 20%
Viagrán - 14%" / Twitter

I checked on the performance of returning BNC/JD candidates. I found:

CandidateDistrictOpponent20182020Change
Marie NewmanIL-03Dan Lipinski-2.2+2.6+4.8
Anthony ClarkIL-07Danny Davis-47.8-47.2+0.6
Cori BushMO-01Lacy Clay-19.8+2.9+22.7
Kara EastmanNE-02R - Don Bacon-2.0-4.6-2.6
Adrienne BellTX-14R - Randy Weber-19.9-23.2-3.3

Numbers are percentage points. All the opponents were/are incumbents. There was something of a "Trump bump" in 2020 that likely deprived Kara Eastman of a victory.

Anthony Clark was far behind both times he ran against Danny Davis, but Cori Bush did an impressive come-from-behind performance, and Marie Newman won by doing only a little better.

Jessica Cisneros was -3.6 relative to Henry Cuellar back in 2020. So if she improved this year by as much as Marie Newman improved in 2020, she will win.

It's possible that the Democratic establishment will strike back as it did to Nina Turner and India Walton last year and to Bernie Sanders back in 2020, and even to some extent at JC herself, with Nancy Pelosi supporting HC. But this recent scandal may be too much for it.
 
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