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Democrats trying to unseat each other II

She's back!

Doyle Canning on Twitter: "in personal news:
Progressive Democrat Doyle Canning Announces ‘22 Run for Congress in Oregon’s 4th District. Canning Enters Race with Progressive Endorsements and 200 Donors from Across the District. Full Release (link) #orpol #OR04 #Congress (pix link) / Twitter
noting
PRESS RELEASE: Announcement Canning for Congress in 2022
Progressive Democrat Doyle Canning Announces ‘22 Run for Congress in Oregon’s 4th District

In the Wake of Rep. DeFazio’s Retirement, Canning Enters Race with Progressive Endorsements and Donors from Across the District

Eugene, Oregon -- Doyle Canning filed to run for Congress today in Oregon’s newly redrawn and Democratic leaning Fourth District. Canning, 42, of Eugene, is an environmentalist, attorney, and 20 year veteran community organizer. She is an alumna of the University of Oregon School of Law and was elected Vice-Chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon’s Environmental Caucus in 2021. This is her second run for Congress, and she enters the race with over 200 donors and endorsements across the District.
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Back in the 2020 Democratic Primary for OR-04, incumbent Peter DeFazio got 83.7%, Doyle Canning 15.4%, others and write-ins 0.8%. But PDF is retiring, and he has not named a successor.

I voted for DC back in 2020, and I plan to vote for her again -- I live in OR-04.
 
Brittany for Congress 🔥 on Twitter: "So many people treat running for office ..." / Twitter
So many people treat running for office like a career move or hobby. It’s a game to them and our communities are pawns to move around and manipulate. THREAD

For them the question of running is one of individual opportunism and goals. They ask themselves “do I want to?” and “can I?” and “how will it help me?” but not really “should I?” or “who asked me or wants me to?” or “is this the best way I can serve?” And once they run their priorities are driven by concerns about “the Black vote” not deep care and commitment to the long term advancement of Black people. (Or women, or the poor, etc etc). We all see it when the come around then disappear. It’s why so many of us check out.

To run for elected office amidst the layered crises we face mostly because you are wealthy and powerful and privileged with the access and identities that will, by default, be perceived as “qualified” and “viable”…to run because you can…is such garish and damaging entitlement. I have been running for Congress in NY-11 for almost a year. I am running because members of my community asked me. Before I said yes I talked to dozens of community leaders, residents and mentors to aak genuinely, “do you think I should? Is this how I can best serve us now?” This campaign has never been about me and it still isn’t. It is about us. It’s a call to organize and flex the enormous but long under-actualized power of people forgotten and ignore by political elites and the 1%. We are the majority. I am part of the 99% of us. And #WeGotUs.

In 2021, against all odds, we raised about half a million without a dime of corporate money. We collected hundreds of surveys on resident priorities and opinions. We highlighted over 30 in-district community leaders doing incredible work. We signed up almost 500 volunteers… We made 10s of thousands of calls, we earned meaningful endorsements, we achieved some of the best earned media in the country, we advocated alongside tenants, workers, immigrants, and more. We organized post-Ida support, did food distribution and donated to families and more. We built a broad, diverse and deeply rooted coalition that can not only win, but can help transform the political landscape to ensure a brighter future and thriving democracy. And we’re growing by the day.

We are the backbone of this district. We are unbought, unbossed and unafraid. We are the majority and when we fight together, we win. We will #FlipNY11 in a historic win for the people. Join us ✊🏼🔥
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Linking to her donation page: Unbossed, Unbought, Unafraid.

Max Rose to Run for House, Seeking a Rematch Against Malliotakis - The New York Times - "Mr. Rose, a moderate Democrat, lost to Representative Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican, by six percentage points last year in a conservative New York City district that includes Staten Island."

I expect him to brag about his expertise at winning elections, much like other losing centrist/conservative Democrats.

In the latest proposed Congressional-district map for NY, NY-11 leans a little Democratic, so whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely win the general. It's rather heavily gerrymandered, so the Republicans might sue.
 
NY State Senator  Alessandra Biaggi has entered the race for NY-03.

She was elected to there in 2018, defeating long-time incumbent Jeffrey Klein. He had been in the State Senate for 14 years, and in the State Assembly for 10 years before that, and he was the #2 Democrat in the NY State Senate and the leader of the Independent Democratic Conference, a group of Republican-leaning Democrats. Though JK outspent her 9 to 1, she won 54% - 46%, much like AOC's victory over Joe Crowley that year. In 2020, she won the primary with 88% of the vote, and the general election with 74% of the vote.

She has a solid progressive record. From Wikipedia,
In June 2019, the New York legislature passed sweeping anti-sexual-harassment legislation that Biaggi had sponsored.[41] Among other things, the bills reduced employers’ ability to avoid liability for their employees' behavior, provided for attorney fees and punitive damages, and lengthened the timeframe within which to file complaints.[41] In her first six months in office, Biaggi introduced 80 bills, 17 of which were passed.[42]

...
In February 2021, Biaggi wrote on Twitter: "@NYGovCuomo, you are a monster, and it is time for you to go. Now."[43] At the time, her call for his resignation was what The New York Times described as: "something of an outlier in the Democrat-controlled Legislature."[43] On August 10, 2021, Cuomo announced his resignation.[44]
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From her campaign site,
I ran for State Senate in 2018 because New York was failing to live up to its highest potential. New York is one of the bluest states in the country, but had a Republican-controlled State Senate, enabled by turncoat Democrats like my predecessor, who was blocking many pieces of legislation that would protect New Yorkers (during the Trump administration, no less) for personal political gain. The legislative session after I unseated him was the most prolific and progressive legislative session in the history of New York State.

Three years later, the people of New York have rewarded us with a Democratic supermajority in the State Senate and I can proudly say that we have accomplished 100% of my 2018 campaign promises. We passed the Reproductive Health Act. We delivered on education funding for New York schools. We passed landmark voting rights legislation. We legalized marijuana. We passed gun safety laws and criminal justice reform. And we passed the most aggressive climate change law in the country.
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Their campaign sites:
Home - Alessandra Biaggi
Melanie D'Arrigo for U.S. Congress
Their platforms look very similar, it must be noted.

New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 - Ballotpedia

Listing Melanie D'Arrigo, Jon Kaiman, Navjot Kaur, Joshua Lafazan, Reema Rasool, Robert Zimmerman
 
RRH Elections on Twitter: "Alessandra Biaggi (D) the granddaughter of a Democratic Congressman who pled guilty to bribery & corruption will run for the open Long Island based Biden +14 #NY03 seat she gerrymandered across 5 counties & the Long Island Sound to include her home in Westchester." / Twitter
then
RRH Elections on Twitter: "Worth noting that Alessandra Biaggi was on the NY state Senate redistricting committee. The reason the open #NY03 snakes through 5 counties & crosses the Long Island sound to lump Westchester into a LI district is because Biaggi lives in Pelham & she drew this seat for herself. (pic link)" / Twitter

So she didn't want to go up against Jamaal Bowman or Mondaire Jones or AOC.

Here is another campaign page: Kaiman for Congress | Jon Kaiman – Democrat for Congress – New York – District 3
Nothing there. Nothing that indicates why he might be good for the job -- no platform, no biography, nothing.

Zimmerman for Congress | Robert Zimmerman
Has a biography but no platform.

About AB's candidacy,
Russell Drew on Twitter: "I could be totally wrong, but this doesn’t seem like a great move. Biaggi could have had her state Senate seat for life. But instead she’s running in a Democratic primary for a district that’s largely based on Long Island. She’s in the Bronx. #NY03" / Twitter
 
Greg Casar on Twitter: "JUST ANNOUNCED: We’re rallying #SATX voters with @AOC on Saturday, Feb. 12! #PuroGOTV 🔥
RSVP: (link)
Donate to help get out the vote in #TX35!
#OurFightOurFuture
👉🏽 (links)" / Twitter
In San Antonio, TX.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Texans, are you ready? 🤠
We’re coming in for a major DOUBLE-RALLY next Saturday, Feb 12th to send @GregCasar + @JCisnerosTX to Congress and support community organizing across the state.
This one’s going to be special.
Join us & RSVP now: (link)" / Twitter

Henry Cuellar soon learned of that planned trip.
Sarah Ferris on Twitter: "Cuellar campaign out with new rebuke ahead of AOC campaign trip for Cisneros:

"The voters will decide this election, not far left celebrities who stand for defunding the police, open borders, eliminating oil & gas jobs, and raising taxes on hard working Texans."" / Twitter

Sarah Ferris on Twitter: ""Members should take care of their own district before taking failed ideas to South Texas."" / Twitter

Then AOC responded.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Well, since he decided to bring me into this…

Did you know that Cuéllar is an anti-choice Dem in a state where women & LGBTQ+ repro rights are under attack?

This district has only gotten bluer, too. It’s 2022. We really don’t have to settle for rock bottom. Vote @JCisnerosTX" / Twitter

JC responded
Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "@AOC Let’s defeat corporate-funded Cuellar by helping us get our people-powered campaign in front of voters in #TX28. We’ve got 5 days before polls open! Chip in if you can today.

See you on Saturday, @AOC! 😎
(link)" / Twitter
 
Doyle Canning on Twitter: "👀" / Twitter
notes
Adam Aton on Twitter: "Gerrymandering the House means most lawmakers will only have to worry about primaries.
Translation: progressives will be even better positioned to pressure Dems to act on climate (while GOP will be even more insulated). My latest: (link)" / Twitter
noting
The same gerrymandering that insulates lawmakers from general election challengers could also empower each party’s most extreme elements, political scientists say. The biggest hurdle to winning most House seats could be surviving the primary.

That means Democrats, who already emerged from the Trump era with a more muscular left wing, could see this decade bring even more clout to environmental groups and other progressive activists waging primary campaigns in the name of more aggressive climate action, some analysts say.

And for Republicans, there could be even less room for lawmakers to break with the climate denial of President Trump, whose endorsement remains the most coveted asset in a GOP primary.

...
It’s not only gerrymandering; voters are also sorting themselves into increasingly homogenous red and blue areas.
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The number of competitive seats is going down.
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, ..." / Twitter
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.

Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.

But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.

ICYMI, this essay by NYU Law Prof. Rick Pildes from last April is one of the best distillations of the real-world consequences of fewer competitive seats. "We are going to end up with a 'fair' House that is even more dysfunctional," he warns me.
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Create More Competitive Districts to Limit Extremism | RealClearPolitics
In a recent New York Times essay, I argued that, among the many different tasks for political reform, one of the most urgent is mitigating the forces of political extremism so dangerous to American democracy. The four areas I singled out in which political reforms could potentially have this effect were the presidential nomination process; the structure of primary elections; regulating money in politics; and designing election districts in ways that create meaningful political competition.
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Opinion | How to Keep Extremists Out of Power - The New York Times
Every political reform proposal must be judged by its ability to fuel or weaken extremist candidates.

...
In healthy democracies, they are rewarded for appealing to the broadest forces in politics, not the narrowest. This is precisely why American elections take place in a “first past the post” system rather than the proportional representation system many other democracies use.
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A gross misunderstanding of how proportional representation works. People vote for parties, then they form coalitions. That's consensus-building, and that's what author Robert Pildes wants. Looking at nations that score high on democracy-quality measures, one finds these features of their governments:
  • Parliamentary system: the legislature runs the executive branch
  • Weak or absent separate executive: a ceremonial monarch or president
  • Proportional representation
  • Weak or absent upper legislative house
The US loses in all four criteria.
 
Rayyvana🚀 on Twitter: "Jesus Christ this account is racist (pic link)" / Twitter

JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "Justice Democrats are assigned to play the roles leftists think POC should play:
AOC: Latina from the Block
Bowman: Wise Hip Hopper from Around the Way
Khanna: Tech Bro
Omar: Cool Militant Muslim
Tlaib: Angry Victimized Palestinian
Bush: Outraged Working Single Mom" / Twitter

Seems like Mr. JDW projected a lot of stereotypes onto these six Reps and then said that they were deliberately set up to live out these stereotypes. No actual evidence, like e-mails or blog entries or podcasts or videos, like videos of training sessions.

The account:

JusticeDemWatch (@JusticeDemWatch) / Twitter - "Democrat working to expose the attempted hostile takeover of the Dem Party by AOC, The Squad and the Justice Dems network of entities. Follow me on Medium."

With articles in JusticeDemWatch – Medium
Four so far, one on AOC, one on Ro Khanna, and two on Ilhan Omar.

A connection with
Dick Jackman, Super Hero Investigator🕵️‍♂️ (@DickJackman1) / Twitter
?
He has done detective work on AOC, and he is also hostile to AOC. He also says that activist Zack Exley is a great villain.
 
JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "I’ve spent the last year researching the “Justice Democrats.” ..." / Twitter
JDW's ten findings:
  1. The Justice Democrats' backstory is a "lie" because the JD's include activists with a history of activism.
  2. JD founder Zack Exley has a history of activist stunts. JDW says that he wants to deprive the capitalists of their property.
  3. JD founder and activist Saikat Chakrabarti was a one-time tech-company person.
  4. JD founder and online commentator Cenk Uygur is an evil monster.
  5. JD founder and online commentator Kyle Kulinski is also an evil monster.
  6. JD people once talked about a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party, like the Tea Party and the Trumpies with the Republican Party.
  7. JD candidate AOC is an evil monster, and those who campaigned with her in 2018 were decoy candidates.
  8. JD candidate Ilhan Omiar is an evil monster.
  9. JD candidate Cori Bush is an evil monster.
  10. Ro Khanna was the first JD, and as one would expect, an evil monster.
All taking well-documented things about these people and using them as "evidence" of what horrible monsters they are.

Since JDW claims to be a Democrat, I expected him to have an online shrine to the victims of JD-like politicians, Democrats that JDW likes:
  • Ro Khanna - Mike Honda
  • AOC - Joe Crowley
  • Ayanna Pressley - Michael Capuano
  • Marie Newman - Dan Lipinski
  • Jamaal Bowman - Eliot Engel
  • Cori Bush - Lacy Clay
I also expected him to make June 18 a day of mourning, the day in 2018 that AOC successfully primaried Joe Crowley.
 
JDW made some mentions of Joe Crowley, like this one:
JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "Justice Democrats used AOC to target Crowley because he was in line to become Speaker after Pelosi. They followed the blueprint the Tea Party used to target Eric Cantor when he was in line to become Speaker on the GOP side. Here’s AOC explaining it: (vid link)" / Twitter

But no mention of any other politicians primaried by his villains.

JDW seems neutral to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "@TonyMoonbeam @RepCuellar @VP @SpeakerPelosi Agreed. I’ll take Cuellar and Manchin over any left-wing populist every day of the week." / Twitter

He seems to like Rep. Henry Cuellar, whom Jessica Cisneros almost defeated back in 2020. JC is trying again this year.

Not clear what he thinks about Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

Here is JDW's list of villains:
  • Reps. AOC, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley, Cori Bush, Jamaal Bowman, Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, Marie Newman, Raul Grijalva, Mondaire Jones, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Katie Porter
  • House candidates Nina Turner, Rana Abdelhamid
  • D PA Sen candidates Malcolm Kenyatta and John Fetterman, and Nina Turner, Katie Porter

He isn't clear about the relationship between Brand New Congress and Justice Democrats, failing to note that JD is an offshoot of BNC that split because of strategy differences.
 
JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "I don’t talk a lot about the GOP because I’m focused on defending our left flank. But, for coverage of GOP treason, you should be following @davetroy rather than the Twitter Resistance, which is filled with grifters and foreign agents who are misleading and manipulating you." / Twitter

JusticeDemWatch on Twitter: "I’ve done most of this research and made most of these discoveries all on my own. I’ve also learned a lot from @LeftSplintered and @lizburgh, along with a few other Twitter accounts like @DickJackman1, who has dug very deeply into AOC and Zack Exley." / Twitter

Liz Burgh's avatar is a lizard. :D

LB seems neutral to Nancy Pelosi and seems to like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Especially KS.

She grumbled that AOC has brought in more money than her predecessor Joe Crowley.

LeftSplintered on Twitter: "Watch for Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress and the Working Families Party to attempt this in the midterms. I have my eye on Pennsylvania in particular but there are other states with multiple “progressive” candidates." / Twitter
noting a Twitter thread by Liz Burgh about the NY-16 D primary race in 2020, when Jamaal Bowman and Andom Ghebreghiorgis ran against Eliot Engel. Both of them had very similar progressive platforms, but JB got more support than AG. So JB's campaigners convinced AB to drop out so as not to split the anti-Eliot-Engel vote.

Why was that supposed to be some evil plot? Seems like two candidates running for office entirely separately.
 
LeftSplintered on Twitter: "The Democratic Party is fighting for us, but they don’t have a silver bullet to defeat the radical right GOP and the radical left Justice Democrats.
You are the hero you are waiting for. Get to work." / Twitter

LeftSplintered also seems to have a grudge against Cori Bush calling her a "pathological liar".

LeftSplintered on Twitter: "Don’t take sides in fake fights between the left wing populists and the right wing populists. Bernie vs Musk, The Squad vs Trump, AOC vs MTG, AOC vs Cruz. All these fights are fake and designed to draw you into extremism." / Twitter

LeftSplintered on Twitter: "The version of the Build Back Better Act supported by Manchin and Sinema is extremely “bold” and “progressive” and a massive win for the Democratic Party.
Should be fun watching Twitter square that with the narrative that Manchin and Sinema are Republican double agents. 🥴" / Twitter
LeftSplintered *likes* what JM and KS did about BBB? Egad. But at least LS is neutral about Nancy Pelosi.
 
Lauren Ashcraft 💜 on Twitter: "A rich guy running for the 3rd time against a woman who has been in office for 30 years, against multiple women of color, is privilege.

Entering in February and being withdrawn from the community between cycles is ridiculous." / Twitter

I guessed who that might be and I searched. I found out that it was the Indiana Catfish, Suraj Patel. He had run against CM two times previously.
New York Democrat Suraj Patel sets up rematch against Maloney | TheHill
Rep. Carolyn Maloney of NY-12
Patel’s campaign also released internal polling along with the announcement showing Patel winning 37 percent of the vote in a head-to-head with Maloney, while the incumbent gets 41 percent of the vote. Maloney leads Rana Abdelhamid, another progressive primary challenger, by a 44 percent to 23 percent margin in the same survey.

When the entire field is polled, Maloney leads with 37 percent support, trailed by Patel at 28 percent and Abdelhamid at 9 percent.
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Most Primary Polls So Far Are Internal Polls. That’s A Problem. | FiveThirtyEight

"FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver found in 2017 that internal and partisan polls conducted during the last three weeks of U.S. House general elections overstated their party’s candidate by an average of 4 or 5 percentage points."

But they nevertheless have some value.
 
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Rallies Support For Progressive Texas Candidates | HuffPost Latest News
Campaigning for Jessica Cisneros and Greg Casar, Ocasio-Cortez sent a message to the Democratic establishment: "Do not mess with Texas progressives."

Ocasio-Cortez recounted how the years she spent as a community organizer in South Texas when she was in her late teens and early 20s convinced her that Democrats will eventually flip Texas. She argued that electing Cisneros and Casar, who are capable of exciting the state’s young and racially diverse electorate, could hasten that process.

“That’s why I’m here: for the long haul,” said Ocasio-Cortez, vowing to return. “I don’t care how many cycles it takes, it is going to happen.”

“Texas turning blue is inevitable!” she added. “It will happen. The only question is when, Texas!”
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About Greg Casar,
Casar, an Austin city councilman, is competing in an open race against state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez and former San Antonio Councilwoman Rebecca Viagran, both of whom are less left-wing than him.
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AOC also took aim at Jessica Cisneros's opponent in TX-28, incumbent Henry Cuellar.
Ocasio-Cortez said that while she normally doesn’t speak ill of her colleagues, Cuellar “decided to put my name in his mouth, so let’s talk.” Cuellar had dismissed her as a “far-left celebrity” ahead of her visit to campaign for Cisneros.

“He is bankrolled by big money. So from a very basic level, if you are just a person in our democracy and you have a representative that is bankrolled by the Koch brothers and by Wall Street ― and by every name in the book ― you have to worry about whether he’s listening to you or listening to them,” she said.

Ocasio-Cortez also noted Cuellar’s vote against the PRO Act, legislation that would make it easier to unionize, and likened Cuellar to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has held up President Joe Biden’s ambitious Build Back Better climate and social policy bill. While Cuellar helped force a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill ahead of Build Back Better, he ultimately voted for the version of Build Back Better that passed the House in November.
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JC:
“We are offering an alternative vision for South Texas, one that’s fighting to recognize that health care is human right and not a privilege, one that’s going to have Medicare for All, one that’s going to have a $15 minimum wage, one that’s going to fund education, one that’s not going to have a border wall, one that’s going to fund the people here,” Cisneros said.
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One factor that may complicate Ocasio-Cortez’s effectiveness in shaping electoral outcomes with her visits is that her following is so passionate that, as was evident on Saturday, her rallies draw people from well outside the districts whose voters she is trying to sway.

She also inspires a level of contempt on the right that matches the enthusiasm she elicits on the left. ...
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Like interpreting MAGA as "Make AOC Go Away".
But at a pre-rally press conference, Casar maintained that Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement has already been a major benefit for him with voters.

“You might see that hate online, but we’re not seeing it in the community,” he said. “She’s by far the most popular progressive politician from Austin down to San Antonio.”
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Can Justice Democrats Swing Two Texas Congressional Districts to the Left? – Texas Monthly - "The Bernie-inspired organization’s heaviest hitter, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, came to Texas to back two candidates who share her platform."

With a picture of her holding a sign that says "Nuestra Lucha Nuestra Futuro" - "Our Fight Our Future"

Jessica Cisneros on Instagram: “Grateful to be on stage in San Antonio with @aoc and @gregcasar …”
Jessica Cisneros on Instagram: “THANK YOU, SAN ANTONIO! ❤️ #TX28”
Jessica Cisneros on Instagram: “Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU. …”

Greg Casar on Instagram: “Thank you @jackievenson for kicking off our Get Out the Vote Rally in San Antonio! #PuroGOTV” - showing her playing a guitar
Greg Casar on Instagram: “THANK YOU, San Antonio! Early voting begins on Monday, let’s do this! 💪🏽”
Greg Casar on Instagram: “Don’t mess with Texas progressives 🤠 Photos by @polipixco 📸”
Greg Casar on Instagram: “Thank you to @banda.512 for kicking off our Rally for our Rights: The Power of Latino Organizing 💪🏽”
Greg Casar on Instagram: “We can win this, together. Thank you for your support, @aoc! …” - showing the two hugging
Greg Casar on Instagram: “Thank you, Austin! Early voting starts Monday, and polls are open 7AM-7PM. Let’s vote for a better Texas! 💪🏽 Photo by @polipixco” -- with AOC

For her part, AOC posted
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Instagram: “🎶 Bidi Bidi Bom Bom 🎶”
showing her dancing at a party at that rally. "Ted Cruz could never"

She was wearing a shocking-pink pantsuit and block-heeled shoes.

The first comment: hrodrigueziv: Just imagining Ted Cruz trying to do this is the most cringeworthy thing ever….😂
 
u〽️ichvoter 🌴🏳️‍🌈 on Twitter: "Result predictions for TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cisneros)?" / Twitter

u〽️ichvoter 🌴🏳️‍🌈 on Twitter: "I’m gonna go with Cisneros +3, she’s gonna have the more energized voter volunteer base and I expect the turnout differentials to favor the more activist grass roots campaignand the district gained more of core San Antonio since last time" / Twitter

BEAT VANDY (23-2) on Twitter: "@umichvoter and then she’ll lose in the general 🤣 progressives never win in swing districts. All her opponent has to do is call out her ties to AOC and the Squad and she’s sunk" / Twitter

Except that Katie Porter won in Orange County. The land of B-1 Bob is now the land of Whiteboard Katie.

Other tweeters in that thread also predicted a slight JC victory. Predicted margins: -8, +3 (2), +4, +5 (2), +6, +7 (2), "high single digits", +13
Tannya Benavides: 4%, 9%

One tweeter listed HC as "Azerbaijan".

What's in the new district may make a difference. Note: San Antonio is in Bexar County ("Be'ar" or "Bekhar").

Zek Hans on Twitter: "@PlayfulPianoVGM @umichvoter Yup, exactly what I was going for. The extra parts of San Antonio that are now in this district will pull her through." / Twitter

Anthony 'King of THEE Gays™' Cruz on Twitter: "@umichvoter Slight Cisneros win. Bexar went for her by a large margin but it's an almost entirely new district here.
But, being under FBI investigation definitely isn't a winning message." / Twitter

observant lurker on Twitter: "@umichvoter Cisneros wins. She got really close last time, Cuellar’s scandal is really bad, and the new district has more Bexar in it." / Twitter
 
Marie Newman accused of bribing potential primary opponent not to run - Roll Call - May 26, 2021
Rep. Marie Newman persuaded a potential primary opponent not to run against her by offering him a six-figure job in her congressional office upon her victory, a contract the Illinois Democrat violated, a lawsuit filed by Iymen Chehade alleges.

“In an effort to induce Chehade not to run against her in the primary, Newman offered Chehade employment as Foreign Policy Advisor and Legislative or District Director,” the lawsuit states.

Chehade alleges that he and Newman entered into an employment contract in December of 2018 that said if Newman won her congressional race in Illinois’ 3rd District, Chehade would be hired in her office and paid a salary “of no less than between $135,000 and $140,000 per year.”

Newman won the primary in March 2020 but later told Chehade she did not plan to fulfill the contract, according to the lawsuit. The agreement would have also given Chehade a minimum of three weeks vacation and Newman would have had to try to provide Chehade a private office if possible.
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Rep. Marie Newman settles lawsuit alleging she bribed potential opponent - July 20, 2021
“The parties have resolved their dispute and the lawsuit has been dismissed by agreement,” Rima Kapitan, a lawyer representing Chehade, said in a statement to CQ Roll Call.

The lawsuit, which was filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, was dismissed with prejudice on July 16, meaning it cannot be refiled. The financial terms of the settlement were not disclosed in public court filings. Neither Newman nor Chehade responded to requests for more detail on the settlement.
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But that issue has re-emerged.

House Ethics Committee extends investigation of complaint against U.S. Rep. Marie Newman into 2022 - 2021 Dec 10

Former Allies Question Marie Newman's Ethics Probe Defense - Rolling Stone - 2022 Feb 1 - "Rep. Marie Newman is accused of making a quid-pro-quo job offer to convince a potential rival not to run against her"

Congresswoman Marie Newman's Bribery Scandal Takes Shocking New Turn - 2022 Feb 1
The scandal enveloping congresswoman Marie Newman—who is accused of signing and then reneging on a contract to pay a political rival not to run against her—has taken a shocking new turn. Federal campaign records show that after striking a secret settlement with the rival, the Illinois Democrat did, in fact, put the man on her campaign payroll.

...
Newman’s latest FEC filings show she did hire Chehade as a foreign policy adviser—only instead of being paid through her congressional office, Chehade was hired through Newman’s campaign.

Chehade has received a total of $54,000 since the second half of 2021, mostly in salary installments of $7,500 a month, but sometimes with additional $2,000 payments. According to the FEC filings, the disbursements to Chehade began on July 1, 2021, just two days after both sides reached a deal to resolve the lawsuit.
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New Twist in Dem Rep. Marie Newman’s Bribery Scandal: Negotiating Anti-Israel Positions - 2022 Feb 3
Among the positions Chehade laid out were “opposing any legislation that entails ADDITIONAL military sales or aid to Israel,” supporting legislation that achieves “justice and self-determination” for Palestinians, and organizing “fact-finding” delegations to Palestine and other Middle East countries. Chehade even said he wanted “complete discretion” over the itinerary for such a trip.

“At no point will Newman accept partial or complete funding for congressional delegations from the [Jewish National Fund], any organization affiliated with the Israeli government, or any organization that embraces Israeli’s Zionist or colonial project,” Chehade said.

In total, Chehade’s section on the positions that “Newman commits to” was 277 words and included four bullet points with multiple sub-sections.
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Congresswoman accused of adopting anti-Israel stance as bribe to would-be opponent | The Times of Israel - 2022 Feb 4 - "Chicago-area Democrat Marie Newman being probed by ethics office over allegations she hired Palestinian-American as an adviser in deal to get him to drop out of primary"

What was in the agreement made by MN and Iymen Chehade? Those payments? That adviser position?
 
What Rep. Henry Cuellar said about AOC:
Olivia Beavers on Twitter: "NEW ⁦@RepCuellar⁩ campaign stmt hits @AOC & her upcoming TX trip:

“The voters will decide this election not far left celebrities who stand for defunding the police, open borders, eliminating oil & gas jobs, and raising taxes on hard working Texans.” (link)" / Twitter


POLITICO Playbook PM: Big money enters Dem vs. Dem primary- POLITICO
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Protect Our Future, a recently launched Democratic super PAC, is planning to back Rep. LUCY MCBATH (D-Ga.) to the tune of $2 million in her primary bid to represent Georgia’s 7th congressional district.

That’s a huge amount of money for a Dem-on-Dem primary. McBath is running against fellow Rep. CAROLYN BOURDEAUX, a centrist, after Georgia redistricting smooshed their districts into one. It’s already shaping up to be one of the most-watched primaries of the season. Last week, the PAC released a poll that found McBath leading Bourdeaux by 9 points. (The poll)

Looking ahead: Protect Our Future is planning to pour $10 million in Democratic primaries, “focusing initially on candidates who take a long term view on policy planning, especially as it relates to pandemic preparedness and prevention.” It has already endorsed Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) and NIKKI BUDZINSKI, a Biden OMB alum who is running for Illinois’ 13th Congressional District, with more announcements expected soon.
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noting
Representative Lucy McBath Leads by 9 Points in the Democratic Primary in Georgia’s New 7th Congressional District

Nothing on other races at Data for Progress as far as I could find.
 
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