Democrats trying to unseat each other II

[lpetrich]

Cryptocurrency traders’ super PACs back state Rep. Jasmine Crockett | The Texas Tribune

Protect Our Future PAC announced Thursday that it is investing $1 million on Crockett's behalf, while a second super PAC, Web3 Forward, shared first with The Texas Tribune on Friday that it was injecting an additional $1 million to the race. The latter said it would put its money toward TV ads — they were already up on the Dallas airwaves as of Thursday — and direct mail for Crockett.

Crypto super PAC backed by Anthony Scaramucci’s firm targets midterms - POLITICO - "The crypto super PAC's backers include SkyBridge Capital, the hedge fund led by former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci."

Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "New: A super PAC is coming in big for @JasmineForUS in the crowded #TX30 Democratic primary, planning to spend $1M before March 1 (pic link)" / Twitter
with a screenshot that I was unable to source:

Protect Our Future Announces Five New Endorsements

New Democratic super PAC endorses five congressional candidates from Ohio to California; shares plans to invest $1 million in TX-30 supporting Jasmine Crockett

WASHINGTON, D.C. Protect Our Future, a new Democratic super PAC spending at least $10 million in Democratic primaries ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, announced today its plans to endorse five additional candidates in congressional races across the U.S, spanning from Ohio to California. The group, which is supporting candidates who take a long term view a on policy planning especially as it relates to pandemic preparedness and prevention, is endorsing the following candidates:

• Rep. Shontel Brown (OH-11)
• Gilbert Villegas (IL-03)
• Jasmine Crockett (TX-30)
• Carrick Flynn (OR-06)
• Robert Garcia (CA-42)

In addition to sharing its new endorsements, the PAC is also announcing its plans to spend $1 million in Texas's 30th congressional district supporting Jasmine Crockett ahead of the state's March Ist congressional primary. This comes on the heels of the group's announcement of pians to spend $2 million in Georgia's 7th congressional district supporting another endorsed candidate Ren Lucv McBath

 

[lpetrich]

Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "New x 2: Another new super PAC linked to the crypto industry, Web3 Forward, is also coming to Crockett's aid. It's disclosed $235K on media spending for her today. (link)
A big push clearly underway to help Crockett win the nine-way primary outright #TX30" / Twitter
noting
Schedule E for Report FEC-1568254

That's Web3 Forward's only FEC filing.

Mike Lewis on Twitter: "@PatrickSvitek @JasmineForUS ..." / Twitter

It's an absolute shame to see progressives get roped into the influence of cryptocurrency; a gigantic speculative Ponzi scheme run by tech gatekeepers preying on poor and working people. Crypto is inherently far-right technology dressed up like money. Hope she reconsiders.

New Protect our Future, Web3, GMI and Blockchain Crypto PACs all seem to be working in tandem on some candidates. Worth noting that they are all stated bipartisan PACs except Protect our Future - whose founder also donated recently to Murkowski, Collins and Sasse. More...

It is clear, and clearly stated that their ambition is to back a long game for crypto without apparent concern for much else.

Crypto’s aspiring Washington kingmaker - POLITICO - "Sam Bankman-Fried — the 29-year-old billionaire who founded FTX in 2019 — is leveraging his new political connections as lawmakers try to understand crypto."

How to regulate digital asset trading has become a top priority for lawmakers and regulators now that it has grown to become a $1.9 trillion piece of the economy.

A looming question for crypto trading platforms is the extent to which they’ll face a crackdown from the SEC, which has taken an expansive view of its jurisdiction over digital currencies.

“They want to work with lawmakers, but the goal is to create legislation that would absolve them of any current violations of securities law,” said Timi Iwayemi, senior researcher and director of political education at the Revolving Door Project, a watchdog group.

Nothing on which candidates that they endorse -- seems like their main interest is getting friendly treatment from regulators. Like many other lobbies, they hope to do that by buying the support of politicians by financing their careers. What Kyrsten Sinema called "bribery" when she was starting out.

 

[lpetrich]

I'd recently posted on some Squad-haters, and I marvel at how some of them seem to be centrist/corporate Democrats rather than Trumpie right-wingers. Who could ever have thought that that political position could inspire the sort of zeal that one sees on the Left and the Right?


Justice Democrats on Twitter: "Why does it sometimes feel like the Democratic Party establishment works harder to fight against working class nurses, bartenders, community organizers, and principals running for office than making sure Republicans don’t take back the House?
(link)" / Twitter
noting
Hakeem Jeffries, Team Blue Unveil Plan to Beat Progressive Rebellion - Rolling Stone

The lawmakers united in an effort to provide resources to the increasing number of House Democrats who face primary challenges — in particular, from the left. That circumstance faces the five incumbents who received endorsements on Wednesday: Reps. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio), Danny Davis (D-Ill.), Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.), and Dina Titus (D-Nev.). Davis and Maloney face opponents backed by Justice Democrats; Brown faces a rematch from Bernie Sanders ally Nina Turner, who had the support of the left-wing group during a special election to fill the seat last year.

With their govtrack.us ideology scores for 2020,
Carolyn Maloney NY-12 0.17 -- Danny Davis IL-07 0.19 -- Donald Payne NJ-10 0.22 -- Dina Titus NV-01 0.26 -- Shontel Brown OH-03 new

Its purpose, Jeffries says, is to protect incumbents’ records from “being distorted” by “the hard-left.” He uses the term to separate himself from his detractors, who see actions like these endorsements as evidence he’s not on their side. “Why are members of the hard-left targeting progressive members of Congress, and then trying to act as though they’re engaging in some ideological contest against the rest of us?” Jeffries says. (It’s worth noting, of course, that Team Blue PAC isn’t defending any incumbents from challenges from the right.)

The primary challengers and their allies do not see any distortion. Democrats’ failures to pass their bold agenda, they say, is proof that the party remains tethered to corporate influence and centrist proclivities. ...

There’s also the matter of corporate campaign funding, which all of the Team Blue PAC-endorsed candidates accept. The PAC itself is primarily financed through corporate PAC money, and I asked Jeffries whether that fact proves his detractors’ point.

“Is there any evidence that their voting record and advocacy has been influenced by people who have contributed to them?” he says, pointing to their voting records. “Somehow we’re supposed to theoretically believe that they’re being unduly influenced because they’re raising money from employee-supported political action committees.”

"Sure, I took those bribes, but I didn't let those bribes influence me." Reminds me of  Francis Bacon - he was a judge for a long time, and when he was caught taking bribes, he offered that defense.

Browse Receipts | FEC for Team Blue PAC

 

[lpetrich]

For their part, progressive Congresspeople have endorsed very few challengers to incumbents. Cori Bush endorsing Dina Titus challenger Amy Vilela, and several of them endorsing Henry Cuellar challenger Jessica Cisneros.

Rather curiously, Team Blue PAC's recent announcement omitted HC, even though Nancy Pelosi herself went out to Texas in 2020 to support him. Could it be that they don't think that he's worth trying to defend?

New Cuellar Supporters Take to Twitter to Rep the Texas Rep

Embattled Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar has seen a surge in wildly enthusiastic online support in the weeks leading up to his March 1 primary election against insurgent Jessica Cisneros. The backing comes at a critical time and from a coveted set of voters: those who appear entirely new to politics — and, it seems, new even to planet Earth.

Inspiring the disaffected to engage in the political process has long been the holy grail of American politics, and it appears that Cuellar’s brand of cautious conservatism is just the thing to have activated countless online accounts in the final days of the race.

Elia isabela: he is “a pride, all my support and I hope he stays in the congress”
All she ever does is retweeting HC posts and replying positively. She follows 64 people and has 6 followers, and most of them are just like her about HC.

Selena stephani: “thanks for always caring” and “hopefully achieve great things for texas”

Gabrielle clark: “El futuro de Texas está en manos de Henry" with 2 "clap" emojis
Spanish: "The Future of Texas is in Henry's hands"

Jackie murphy: “With Henry until the end” with a strong-arm emoji

Lulú carey: “The support with Henry is honest. He is a hardworking and prepared man”

Jhon macleod: “Henry is a great example!!! My vote is for he”

Yes, their last names are uncapitalized. They all joined only last month, and they engage only with content about HC or JC.

 

[lpetrich]

Cuellar hasn’t always been such a phenom on Twitter. Take his November 5 tweet announcing passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which he had worked to break away from the larger Build Back Better Act. Absent was his swarm of supporters; instead, his followers took the opportunity to lambast him for undermining the broader package, to call him a “sellout,” or otherwise denigrate his legislative activity.

Their tweets about Jessica Cisneros:

Ángel berrera: “We Texans no longer believe we are a proposal on the air, you have no experience”

Jackie murphy: “I’m not convinced by Jessica. She doesn’t have what it takes”
to CNN after that network reported that Bernie Sanders endorsed JC

Sasha hill: "These are the important issues that we must prevent. Excellent Henry."
After HC and Rep. Susan Wild joined in calling YouTube to remove "How to tie a noose" videos, in "Safer Internet Day"

Kelsy gray: “Everything is to benefit our economy, excellent Henry! You have our support”
After HC announced his support of an electric-vehicle grid

It’s fortunate for Cuellar to have won over such committed backers so late in the game, especially after an FBI raid of his home and campaign office in January, tied to an ongoing investigation into Azerbaijani influence peddling, led to a drop in the polls. Many of the rest of the replies to his posts — coming from accounts that have been active much longer and have more diverse interests than just Cuellar — are criticisms of his anti-abortion stance, references to the federal investigation, or calls of support for Cisneros.

Maggie evans: "The best is yet to come"

 

[lpetrich]

Others noticed this odd fan club that HC has.

David Morrison on Twitter: "@IsabelaElia @RepCuellar Another paid for Cuellar bot? Same exact Cuellar tweets as the others. Is the FBI following the money? @ExpressNews @Laredo_News" / Twitter

Ryan Grim on Twitter: "If I were caught up in an Azerbaijani influence-peddling investigation I'd hope my bots were a little less obvious than this" / Twitter

Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "
Our right to choose is under attack. Roe v. Wade hangs by a thread.
But Henry Cuellar was the only Democrat to team up with Republicans to make abortion illegal.
South Texans deserve so much more. Early voting is happening now. It’s time we had true representation. #TX28
(vid link)" / Twitter

Shannon Vavra on Twitter: "NEW: @RepCuellar's getting a lot of attention from superfans lately ..." / Twitter

NEW: @RepCuellar's getting a lot of attention from superfans lately—but turns out the seemingly adoring fanclub is actually a fake network of Twitter trolls that popped up just when the FBI raided Via @UrsulaPerano @SollenbergerRC & me @thedailybeast (link)

The focus of the Twitter trolls is "coordinated activity amplifying tweets by Rep. Cuellar" in one turn, "and criticizing his opponent in the Democratic primary, @JCisnerosTX" in another, per a @Mandiant analysis shared with @thedailybeast

The accounts also bear the hallmarks of an inauthentic network meant to amplify or distort narratives online, experts told us: Many of the accounts were created in Jan/Feb this year—just after the FBI raid—which could suggest they are controlled by the same actor...

Other red flags: A classic feature of these fake networks is stolen/manipulated profile pics & here we have a winner. Most of them follow a formula of pastels or black-and-white images with a soft glow. Some of the pics are stolen from other accounts, including one of John Mayer

More tipoffs: The accounts' user names have a similar formula and have few followers. The accounts follow each other (a classic move), but while many don’t follow Cuellar's account, they still know just when to tweet about him or retweet...

Dive in to the story on Cuellar's reply guys for more analysis from @AletheaGroup @lisackaplan @shelbygrossman @Mandiant: (link)

noting
After FBI Raid, Congressman Henry Cuellar Feels the Love-From a Network of Trolls - "Days after the FBI raided his home and office, Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar’s social media feed was filled with well-wishers that experts say are not actual people."

“Here we will be supporting until the end.”
“Bravo many more achievements.”
“We are getting better and better.”
“For better things for the country!!”
“Hopefully Henry can stay in congress.”

“We identified at least two profile photos from these accounts that appear to have been appropriated from other social media accounts, an indicator that these accounts are misrepresenting their identities. ”
— a spokesperson for cybersecurity firm Mandiant

"As is often the case with inauthentic networks, these accounts feature profile photos that appear similar or touched up—in this case, they’re pastel-colored or black-and-white images touched up with a soft glow."

"The accounts are riddled with other red flags. Their user names follow a similar formula. They have very few followers. Many don’t even follow the congressman’s account, yet somehow they track his every move."

After HC expressed support for an electric-vehicle grid,

“As always doing everything for people. That’s why Mr. Cuellar is recognized,” said one commenter.
“Texas will be better off with you, my family and I will vote for you Mr Cuellar,” said another.
“Henry has the best proposals,” one chimed.

They don't just adore HC.

The trolls are calling Cisneros a “hypocrite,” with others adding, “In texas the experience is worth, you don't have it.”
“You’re too young to represent us in congress,” one account said.
“You always want to pretend that you are doing well, but you are defeated,” said another.

Several of the accounts focusing on Cisneros were created just around the time she launched her primary bid in August 2021.

I looked for some of these accounts, and their tweets were replaced by "This Tweet is from a suspended account." with links to Twitter account notices and what they mean - suspensions and more

So Twitter's management caught up with those tweets.

 

[lpetrich]

The next question is who is running these troll bots.

I first think Russia, because that nation runs a troll farm -  Internet Research Agency - and it has a history of  Cyberwarfare by Russia

But I doubt that Vladimir Putin and his friends have much interest in some obscure legislator. They might have some interest in Nancy Pelosi or Mitch McConnell, but not him. So while Russia is guilty of a lot, I consider it unlikely that Russia is guilty here also.

I think that a key is that this fan club got started not long after the FBI's raid on HC's home and offices. Was it HC's friends in Azerbaijan? Or HC's campaigners getting desperate?

Whatever is going on, I think that not capitalizing last names is VERY odd. It's not usual English spelling, and it's not usual spelling in every other language that uses the Roman alphabet, or for the matter, the Greek or Cyrillic alphabets.

 

[lpetrich]

About Team Blue PAC,

Noah Shachtman on Twitter: "“It is extremely alarming that critical resources... are going to protect incumbents from having to face any competition in deep blue districts instead of protecting the swing seats we’re in danger of losing in November,” Justice Democrats' @_waleedshahid tells @karavoght." / Twitter

Kina Collins for IL7 on Twitter: "Democratic leadership should be spending every dime of our party’s resources on helping frontline incumbents in swing districts and protecting our majority—instead of coming into a deep blue district that is clamoring for new leadership like #IL7. (link)" / Twitter
She's running against Danny Davis in IL-07

Rana Abdelhamid on Twitter: "I wish our party's leadership would fight as hard to protect our majority in Congress as they do to stop women of color from trying to represent our communities. (link)" / Twitter
She's running against Carolyn Maloney in NY-12

Corporate Democrats funneled enormous amounts of money into the campaigns of Shontel Brown and Byron Brown to defeat challengers Nina Turner and India Walton.

 

[lpetrich]

On a more pleasant note,
Doyle Canning on Twitter: "2022 @NoFossilMoney pledge just dropped. (vid link)" / Twitter
With a closeup of her signing the pledge. She's left-handed, like AOC.

No Fossil Fuel Money (@NoFossilMoney) / Twitter - "Taking on the fossil fuel industry, one max donation from an oil executive at a time. #NoFossilFuelMoney"

No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge

I pledge not to take contributions over $200 from oil, gas, and coal industry executives, lobbyists, and PACs and instead prioritize the health of our families, climate, and democracy over fossil fuel industry profits.

She's running for OR-04, and I live in that district.

 

[Harry Bosch]

On a more pleasant note,
Doyle Canning on Twitter: "2022 @NoFossilMoney pledge just dropped. (vid link)" / Twitter
With a closeup of her signing the pledge. She's left-handed, like AOC.

No Fossil Fuel Money (@NoFossilMoney) / Twitter - "Taking on the fossil fuel industry, one max donation from an oil executive at a time. #NoFossilFuelMoney"

No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge

I pledge not to take contributions over $200 from oil, gas, and coal industry executives, lobbyists, and PACs and instead prioritize the health of our families, climate, and democracy over fossil fuel industry profits.

She's running for OR-04, and I live in that district.

Well, the winner of OR-04 will face Alex Skarlatos. Alex is a real piece of shit and must not serve in the legislature. He supported the Jan 6 rioters and was a quanon supporter. Eugene is not the liberal bastion community that it once was. I don't know much about Doyle. But it would be very bad for democracy if the left voted for a progressive over a moderate that could have beaten Skarlatos.

 

[lpetrich]

(Doyle Canning...)

Well, the winner of OR-04 will face Alex Skarlatos. Alex is a real piece of shit and must not serve in the legislature. He supported the Jan 6 rioters and was a quanon supporter. Eugene is not the liberal bastion community that it once was. I don't know much about Doyle. But it would be very bad for democracy if the left voted for a progressive over a moderate that could have beaten Skarlatos.

Or else Alek Skarlatos is trying to get the MAGA vote.

More seriously, The Squad and Squad-adjacent Democrats tend to do well in elections, at least as well as their predecessors did against Republicans.

 

[lpetrich]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Rallies Support For Progressive Texas Candidates | HuffPost Latest News - "Campaigning for Jessica Cisneros and Greg Casar, Ocasio-Cortez sent a message to the Democratic establishment: "Do not mess with Texas progressives.""

Liberal Pro-Israel Group To Spend $100,000 Boosting Jessica Cisneros In Texas | HuffPost Latest News - "The J Street Action Fund is backing Cisneros, a progressive attorney, in her Democratic primary challenge against Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas)."

One 30-second spot is a contrast ad that highlights Cuellar’s alleged corruption and conservatism, as well as Cisneros’ attributes, saying she “fought for South Texas families as a human rights lawyer.”

A second 30-second video is solely an anti-Cuellar attack, citing the FBI raid and Cuellar’s opposition to abortion rights and pro-union legislation.

“Henry Cuellar isn’t fighting for Texas families, he’s looking out for himself,” the ad concludes.

Meanwhile, Pro-Israel America, a more conservative pro-Israel group founded by a former leader of the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, has endorsed Cuellar, praising him as an “outspoken supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship throughout his time in Congress.” As of the end of 2021, Cuellar had raised more than $54,000 from pro-Israel donors and groups.

3 Exit Rep. Henry Cuellar's Campaign After FBI Raid On Home | HuffPost Latest News - "Three consultants for the conservative Texas Democrat have left since late January."

The departing consultants were Chris Cantu, a data specialist; Andrew Kovach, a digital marketing consultant; and Bert Santibañez, a field organizing expert, according to two people familiar with their exit. All three Democratic consultants are based in San Antonio, and Cuellar’s progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros, heavily outperformed him in 2020 in Bexar County, the part of Texas’ 28th Congressional District where San Antonio is located.

So that will hurt HC's campaign in the San Antonio area, where JC is strong. One has to ask why they quit. Are they trying to avoid embarrassing associations? Do they expect HC to lose?

In addition to the exits of the three consultants, the Voter Education Foundation, a “dark money” political nonprofit that aired ads attacking Cisneros, is no longer active, according to someone who used to work for the group.

...
Cuellar has once again heavily out-fundraised Cisneros, but she has picked up some momentum following the FBI raid. Cisneros announced on Thursday that her campaign had raised $700,000 in the first six weeks of 2022 ― nearly twice as much as she raised in the final three months of 2021.

...
Cisneros also told HuffPost that in the wake of the FBI raid, she and her campaign workers have noticed greater receptivity to her bid when they knock on voters’ doors.

The raid “forced people to really think about their choice in terms of whether they were going to vote for Cuellar or this campaign a lot sooner than it did last time,” she said. “It also forced people to know that we are the most electable candidate.”

 

[lpetrich]

Jessica Cisneros Is Going Up Against The Last Anti-Abortion Democrat In The House | HuffPost Latest News

Referring to:

Actions - H.R.3755 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress - legally protecting abortion and putting into law what is in Roe vs. Wade.

The vote: Roll Call 295 | Bill Number: H. R. 3755
Sep 24, 2021, 11:53 AM | 117th Congress, 1st Session
The vote was:
D: Y 218, N 1, nv 1
R: N 210, nv 2
Total: Y 218, N 211, nv 3

The only Democrat to vote against the bill was Rep. Henry Cuellar.

This wasn’t the first time Cuellar had voted against the reproductive health of millions of American women. Cuellar, a nine-term incumbent, has a long history of voting against pro-choice legislation, and now stands as the last anti-abortion rights Democrat in the House. He regularly supported former President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Title X family planning program and was the only Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee in 2021 to support the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal health insurance programs like Medicaid from covering abortions.

The second remaining antiabortion Democrat was Dan Lipinski, and he was primaried by Marie Newman back in 2020.

 

[lpetrich]

Primary dates (United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2022 - Ballotpedia):

• March 1: TX
• May 3: IN, OH
• May 10: NE, WV
• May 17: ID, KY, NC, OR, PA
• May 24: AL, AR, GA
• June 7: CA, IA, MS, MT, NJ, NM, SD
• June 14: ME, ND, NV, SC
• June 21: VA
• June 28: CO, IL, MD, NY, OK, UT
• August 2: AZ, KS, MI, MO, WA
• August 4: TN
• August 9: CT, MN, VT, WI
• August 13: HI
• August 16: AK, WY
• August 23: FL
• September 13: DE, NH, RI
• September 20: MA
• November 8: LA

Texas has runoff elections on May 24, Alaska will be using a nonpartisan top-four system for the first time, California and Washington use a nonpartisan top-two system, and Louisiana has a nonpartisan top-two system where the second election is skipped if some candidate wins a majority.

 

[Harry Bosch]

(Doyle Canning...)

Well, the winner of OR-04 will face Alex Skarlatos. Alex is a real piece of shit and must not serve in the legislature. He supported the Jan 6 rioters and was a quanon supporter. Eugene is not the liberal bastion community that it once was. I don't know much about Doyle. But it would be very bad for democracy if the left voted for a progressive over a moderate that could have beaten Skarlatos.

Or else Alek Skarlatos is trying to get the MAGA vote.

More seriously, The Squad and Squad-adjacent Democrats tend to do well in elections, at least as well as their predecessors did against Republicans.

Well, I'm a Duck. Know Lane county well. It's not as liberal as many think. I was down there a few weeks ago to tour the campus with my daughter. I was surprised at all the Trump signs in the areas around the campus. Many anti-Kate Brown signs. She is hated. In every restaurant, they proudly proclaimed that they don't agree with Brown's position on masks and etc. Clearly, the college kids and professors are left. But what will their turnout be? The dems need to win the moderates to keep a quanon believer from federal office. Just saying...

 

[lpetrich]

From a year ago: Marianne Williamson's Endorsee Candidate Summit

She recently followed up with Seize The House - Candidate Summit

The candidate list was unchanged, except for dropping Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick FL-20 and adding Stephanie Gallardo WA-09.

A panel discussion with Krystal Ball, Briahna Joy Gray, Katie Halper, Julianna Forlano, Marianne Williamson
LEFT TAKEOVER: SEIZING THE HOUSE - YouTube

I watched the whole thing. Krystal Ball was around only for the first few tens of minutes, but the other hosts stuck around for the entire three hours, mainly interviewing most of the candidates.

Marianne Williamson - YouTube has a lot of interviews, like with Rep. Pramila Jayapal.

 

[lpetrich]

Nick Cunningham on Twitter: "Progressive climate champion Doyle Canning running for OR-04. Merkley and DeFazio endorsed Hoyle, which has angered climate groups in OR over her history of taking money from Jordan Cove LNG." / Twitter
That's Val Hoyle.

The only TX-28 poll I've found is someone repeating a 3-month-old poll.
PollTracker on Twitter: "2022 #TX28 Democratic Primary Poll:
Jessica Cisneros 36%
Henry Cuellar 35%
Other 7%
Undecided 17%
RMG Research/@USTermLimits ~ 400 LV ~ 11/14-11/21 (link)" / Twitter

It was before the FBI's raid on HC's home, and JC claims that that raid made people more interested in her. So she seems likely to win.

I looked for more polls of Democratic primary races, and I found

PollTracker on Twitter: "2022 #TX35 Democratic Primary Poll:
Greg Casar 48%
Eddie Rodriguez 20%
Rebecca Viagran 14%
@Lake_Research/@GregCasar Internal ~ 400 LV ~ 1/4-9 (link)" / Twitter
A candidate's internal poll tends to overstate the candidate, but even so, GC has an impressive margin.

PollTracker on Twitter: "2022 #MI12 Democratic Primary Poll:
Rashida Tlaib 62%
William Wild 13%
Kelly Garrett 6%
Janice Winfrey 4%
Phil Cavanagh 3%
Maureen Miller Bronsan 2%
Shanelle Jackson 0%
Other/Undecided 10%
Target Insyght/@mdpblackcaucus ~ 600 LV ~ 1/18-1/20 (link)" / Twitter
RT's previous main opponent, Brenda Jones, is nowhere in sight.

 

[lpetrich]

Progressive Jessica Cisneros Challenges Rep. Cuellar in Texas - The New York Times - "In her second run for Congress, Jessica Cisneros has moved from pitching progressive policies to attacking the incumbent Democrat, Representative Henry Cuellar."

LAREDO, Texas — Two years ago, a 26-year-old immigration lawyer named Jessica Cisneros came within 3.6 percentage points of pushing out the longtime Democratic congressman here, running aggressively on the progressive vision of the national liberals who had bankrolled her insurgent campaign.

This time around, at the ripe age of 28, she’s scorching the already brown earth of South Texas, attacking Representative Henry Cuellar not so much for his conservative policy positions, but for being what she describes as a corrupt politician — rich, out of touch with his poor constituents, and quite possibly a felon.

“We’re going after him,” Ms. Cisneros said at a picnic table outside the taqueria next to her campaign headquarters, with the confidence of a seasoned political street fighter. “Everything we’ve been doing has been very intentional.”

... he still favors Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, more liberal immigration policies and abortion rights, but those have not been her focus.

Instead, she has played up her biography and hit Mr. Cuellar hard on rising prices. She has portrayed him as a Washington insider, greasing his pockets with money from big corporations, and presented herself as embodying the struggling community he left behind.

“My medicines cost more, insurance more,” intones an older Latina in one of Ms. Cisneros’s most recent ads, as the woman sweeps the stoop of her modest house and laments that nothing has changed in Laredo. “Now it’s food and gas, but we don’t make more. If you ask me, Henry Cuellar has been in Washington too long.”

Much like AOC's legendary campaign ad back in 2018.

Jonathan Weisman on Twitter: "On her second run, @JCisnerosTX is putting aside an issues-focused run at @RepCuellar and trying an approach Democrats should notice, building a story around identity, el pueblo, us vs. a corrupt Washington elite in the guise of a conservative incumbent. (link)" / Twitter
then
Bill Neidhardt on Twitter: "How is this not an “issues-focused” run? (pic link)" / Twitter
showing a screenshot of that last paragraph I quoted, the one about stuff going up in price and how HC has been in DC for too long.

Michan Connor on Twitter: "@BNeidhardt @justicedems Because Cisneros is brown and progressive, which therefore means “woke”. They had an editorial meeting and decided" / Twitter

Noah Pierce on Twitter: "@BNeidhardt @justicedems Just but if you ignore all the things she’s saying, you can focus on the things you think she isn’t saying" / Twitter

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "Which side are you on?" / Twitter
noting
Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "Our dreams are worth more than their money.
It's time to deliver for working families in #TX28. (pic link)" / Twitter

Showing HC's big-business supporters like ExxonMobil and Koch Industries, and stating that less than 1% of his money comes from small-dollar donations. By comparison, JC is supported by no corporate PAC's and she accepts no lobbyist money. She is supported by several progressive politicians and PAC's, like AOC, Katie Porter, Justice Democrats, and EMILY's List.

 

[lpetrich]

A Texas primary could signal Democrats’ chances in the 2022 midterms - Vox - nice article on Jessica Cisneros and the prospects for her unseating Henry Cuellar.

Noting
Progressive challengers and an FBI raid raise obstacles to Texas Democrat's reelection bid - CBS News

The Republican National Committee has made a multi-million dollar investment into "RNC Community Centers" geared towards minority communities. Three are in South Texas, including one in San Antonio and one in Laredo.

"Henry and I are pretty close friends. He does a lot of good for Laredo, he's in charge of the border. I hope he survives his primary," said Bill Young, the former Webb County Republican Chair, at a RNC Community Center event. "But– it's going to be a battle for him in the primary and in the general."

Republican candidate and businessman Ed Cabrera said a recent internal poll from his campaign conducted after the FBI raid has Cisneros up 7 points on Cuellar.

Benavides noted Republicans have been targeting rural counties.

"There's been so much that's happened since 2020 that we will, as a Democratic party, be judged by," Benavides told CBS News during an event in Zapata County. "They're looking at it as a window of opportunity. So I'm also going to be where the Republican party is at."

That's Tannya Benavides, another progressive candidate, and one with nearly no support.

The (JC) - (HC) poll numbers are+1% for before the raid and +7% after the raid, so it looks like that raid made a difference. No followup on that raid, however, from the FBI or anyone else.

The two articles, like several others, described HC as a "moderate" Democrat. He may be moderate by Congressmember standards, but he is very conservative by Democratic-Party standards. So I like to call him a conservative Democrat.

 

[lpetrich]

Marie Newman on Twitter: "We can’t settle for another corporate Democrat in the #NewIL06. I’ll keep fighting every day for strong, progressive values. (pic link)" / Twitter
showing off differences between her and Sean Casten, also running in IL-06.

Marie Newman:

• Refuses to take corporate PAC donations
• Proud supporter of climate justice and equity
• Fights to make life easier for workers and working families
• Working to make universal healthcare a reality

Sean Casten:

• Has taken $700,000 from corporations since 2019
• Former fossil-fuel CEO and lobbyist
• Said recently that "a little bit of inflation is a good thing"
• Refused to sign on to Medicare for All legislation

Ryan Grim on Twitter: "Henry Cuellar’s bot army appears to be highly active on Facebook too. On the one hand this is all pretty funny, but his home was recently raided as part of an investigation into Azerbaijani corruption and that country is particularly known for deploying these bot armies. (pix link)" / Twitter
Showing some of HC's bots' messages of support. Their names are fully capitalized, unlike their Twitter counterparts' names, but their content is essentially the same.

Some videos claiming that Azerbaijan is a big user of bot armies. So it would not be surprising if they deployed these armies to deploy their friend Henry Cuellar.

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict - How Azerbaijan uses BOTs and Fake Social Media Profiles to spread Lies - YouTube

Explaining Azerbaijan’s Use of Bot Armies & The Online War - YouTube - "Fred Tatlyan speaks to CivilNet from Los Angeles about the cyber war and Azerbaijan’s use of bot armies and other online tactics. Fred also gives his take on how Diasporans should approach the situation." - evidently the Armenian diaspora, and Armenia and Azerbaijan don't get along very well with each other.