Democrats trying to unseat each other

[lpetrich]

Guess who is endorsing Jerry Nadler, D-NY-10. He's a 14-term incumbent and head of the House Judiciary Committee.

(((Jerry Nadler))) on Twitter: "“Whether the issue is climate change and the Green New Deal, universal health care and Medicare for All, or the kind of policies that will reduce income inequality in America, Jerry Nadler is there.” - @AOC
Thank you for your support & endorsement! https://t.co/ddsNV0USuQ" / Twitter
then
Mark on Twitter: "I can't support AOC anymore after this. @badrun_khan may you show me the link to donate towards your campaign? Thanks." / Twitter
then
Badrun Khan on Twitter: "Thanks again Mark!
I’ll share this in case anyone else didn’t hear the AOC endorsing Nadler news. Still hasn’t endorsed #UBI. Slandered UBI. Now vocally anti-#FreedomDems & [MENTION=322]jonatha[/MENTION]nHerzog5. Hope this tips the scales for more who were on the fence.
https://t.co/nWoenVTF4k" / Twitter

Seems like she's a Yangite and opposed to Sandersites like AOC. Jonathan Herzog is another Yangite and Lindsey Boylan another Sandersite.


Sunrise NYC on Twitter: "Curious about our guide’s recommendation for @jerrynadler? Read on…" / Twitter

Curious about our guide’s recommendation for @jerrynadler? Read on…

First & most importantly, nearly all of the organizational allies we consulted support @jerrynadler. We respect this coalition support, and we also expect more from GND-signatory Nadler in the future. We’re going to apply pressure and hold him to his promises.

Things we learned about @JerryNadler: he approved Eisenhower-era taxation on the wealthy during the spring ‘19 GND Townhall. He champions transit upgrades + industrial transformation that uplifts communities. That expertise is key to bringing a renewable transition to NY.

Re @LindseyBoylan. Friends love her. We like her approach but have concerns. She supported Amazon HQ2. She invested in oil + gas companies like BP/Shell & didn’t divest until she was called out. She loaned her campaign $150k, violating the spirit of the @NoFossilMoney pledge!

Also, Boylan donated $3,250 to @yuhline’s opponent! Youth activists asked why Boylan opposes beloved progressive champion @yuhline. Her response wasn’t appropriate. P.S. phonebank for @yuhline with us this Saturday at 11 AM: (link)

Lindsey Boylan on Twitter: "@sunrisemvmtnyc @yuhline Also I did donate to @graceleefornyc because I believe in her commitment to NYCHA. I ALSO donated to @yuhline Did you know @yuhline donated money to herself just like you’re critiquing me? Just want to make sure you understand your own logic." / Twitter

RL Miller on Twitter: "@sunrisemvmtnyc @LindseyBoylan @NoFossilMoney Hey. Not getting involved in this primary, but one point -- we always have intended the @nofossilmoney pledge to be forward-looking. Anyone who divests should be welcomed, not criticized." / Twitter
Yes, one should accept that people can and do improve. Consider the case of Hugo Black, who moved from being a member of the Ku Klux Klan to being involved in some civil-rights decisions as a Supreme Court Justice.

He went from wearing white robes and scaring black people to wearing black robes and scaring white people.

Sunrise NYC on Twitter: "@RL_Miller @LindseyBoylan @NoFossilMoney Point well taken! Growth should be encouraged. However it did play into our voter-guide decision (along with other factors) because it all surfaced in the past few days." / Twitter

Lindsey Boylan on Twitter: "@sunrisemvmtnyc @RL_Miller @NoFossilMoney But is the point taken or did you just get told what to do? Sad sad sad." / Twitter

Lindsey Boylan on Twitter: "@sunrisemvmtnyc @NoFossilMoney Also - I never invested in fossil fuels. My husband had investments from 7 years before we met. And HE divested when brought up. But thanks for your misogyny @sunrisemvmtnyc" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Sunrise NYC on Twitter: "While we’d LOVE to see leaders like @PeteHarrisonNYC and @VoteAshcraft in office, in 2020 we recommend GND co-sponsor Carolyn Maloney. ..." / Twitter

While we’d LOVE to see leaders like @PeteHarrisonNYC and @VoteAshcraft in office, in 2020 we recommend GND co-sponsor Carolyn Maloney. Curious why? Read on in thread

In 2019, @CarolynBMaloney co-sponsored the GND for Public Housing, crucial for district residents. In 2018, she was among the 1st to support AOC’s call for a GND Select Committee equipped with subpoena power.

Now she chairs @OversightDems. She has near unilateral subpoena power!

Some allies see Maloney as ‘establishment.’ Us too, but we’ve also had good experiences partnering with her at forums & advocating for #CancelRent. We’ll relentlessly push her to expose fossil fuel billionaires determined to set the planet ablaze. We’ll turn engagement up to 11.

TBH our choice has much to do w/ a well-heeled challenger. He’s unacceptable, but has gained momentum in recent months. He’s a hotel magnate who has raised 3x more $ out of his home state of Indiana than in NY Why not try to flip a seat in Indiana where all your donors live?

@surajpatelnyc has too much $ and recognition among voters. It feels like most know Ashcraft and Harrison, but we suspect this phenomenon is due to time spent among allies. We don’t want Patel to win!

Further, when others united around saving lives & agreed not to petition for ballot signatures, Patel kept at it. When Ashcraft, Harrison, & Maloney jointly called him out, he lied & claimed he was the first to stop!

Beyond an honesty problem, he lacks clear convictions

Suraj Patel began this race with a paid poll asking residents: should I run as an ‘AOC Democrat” or a moderate?

Oh yeah, and there’s this frankly gross behavior: (grown man hitting on teenage girls, catfishing for votes)

To reiterate, voter-guide selections are not endorsements. We had a separate endorsement process that resulted in 16 candidates receiving our nod and hard work. Learn more about our endorsed candidates and phonebank for/donate to them here:

The SM people like Lauren Ashcraft and Peter Harrison, but they don't like Suraj Patel, and I think that it's for good reasons. I checked fec.gov and most of SP's contributions come from Indiana, while most of the contributions to the others - CM, LA, PH, and Erica Vladimer - come from New York.

 

[lpetrich]

Not surprising:
Carolyn B. Maloney on Twitter: "I am so appreciative to have been recommended in the @sunrisemvmtnyc voter guide - and looking forward to continuing our work to end the #climatecrisis and pass a #GreenNewDeal. #electGND" / Twitter

I checked this list of Yangites against my spreadsheet of progressive candidates.

• David Kim, CA-34
• Jen Perelman, FL-23 -- BNC, APS, LB, 35A
• Noelle Famera, HI-02
• Charles Broihier, KY-SEN
• Antoine Pierce, LA-SEN -- DUH
• Robbie Goldstein, MA-08 -- DUH
• Russ Cirincione, NJ-06 -- TPP, DUH, APS, LB
• Nate McMurray, NY-27 -- FEF, NOW, SC
• Tim Ryan, OH-13
• Heidi Briones, OR-01 (defeated) -- APS
• Blair Walsingham, TN-01

BNC = Brand New Congress, APS = American Progressives in STEM, LB = Local Berniecrats, 35A = 350 Action, DUH = Demand Universal Healthcare, TPP = TYT's Progressive Pledge, FEF = Freethought Equality Fund, NOW = National Organization for Women, SC = Sierra Club

There's a little bit of overlap between the Yangites and the Sandersites, but not much: JP, RC, a bit of HB.

 

[lpetrich]

Lauren Ashcraft for NY-12 on Twitter: "We paid thousands of dollars for posters and deployed volunteers all over the city to hang them, and @surajpatelnyc’s team has stolen them. I’m heartbroken at the waste of time and resources for our grassroots campaign. Please help us replace them https://t.co/kQefqCo7ur" / Twitter
noting
David Ruperti on Twitter: "@surajpatelnyc @NY1 Another location where I put a Lauren Ashcraft poster yesterday is now removed and your poster is now at that location. Your volunteers are finding my posters in Greenpoint and removing them! This is the fourth one they’ve torn down. https://t.co/yYVcvofAIB" / Twitter

Lauren Ashcraft for NY-12 on Twitter: "Another example! Now everyone is sending pics of where they’ve seen it happen! https://t.co/3HusXUxee7" / Twitter


Alex-Sandra Orso on Twitter: "@VoteAshcraft This is terrible. If @surajpatelnyc will resort to these childish actions just to get elected, imagine what shady tactics he’ll use in Congress #NY12 #VoteAshcraft" / Twitter This is supposed to be a professor of business ethics.

• Mostly funded from Indiana
• Commissioned a poll on whether to run as an "AOC Democrat" or as a moderate
• Creeped on teenage girls
• Campaigned by catfishing
• Did legal challenges to other candidates' voter petitions
• Continuing collecting petition signatures well into the recent stay-at-home order, complete with catching COVID-19 -- and lying about it
• Now, ripping down others' campaign posters

JB got another endorsement:
Ayanna Pressley on Twitter: "We need leaders like @JamaalBowmanNY in Congress now more than ever. Jamaal will be relentless in his commitment to universal health care, affordable housing, and environmental justice. He will never forget who he represents or who he is accountable to - the people. https://t.co/95wduzfaVj" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

‘We just need a win’: The left unites to take down Eliot Engel - POLITICO - "Progressives are channeling their grief, volunteer muscle and small-dollar donations into the effort to oust the longtime Democratic incumbent."

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, all of whom have shown caution in the past about backing primary challengers to incumbent Democrats, have endorsed Bowman. Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party, two left-wing groups that took different paths during the presidential race, announced they are coming together to spend more than a half-million dollars to elect Bowman. Former aides to Sanders and Warren have also publicly lined up behind Bowman.

The all-hands-on-deck strategy is a striking show of unity after the presidential campaign ended with deep rifts on the left — and it’s had a catalytic effect on Bowman’s bid in the run-up to the June 23 primary. But their efforts have also exposed party fissures, spurring Democratic establishment powerhouses such as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn to throw their support behind Engel.

Kara Eastman and Marie Newman aren't good enough? KE likely has a tough fight against incumbent Don Bacon (R), but MN is a likely win from how Democratic her district is.

Jamaal Bowman leads progressive charge to oust incumbent Eliot Engel - CNNPolitics Also mentions NY Rep Hakeem Jeffries as supporting EE.

 

[lpetrich]

Dave Weigel on Twitter: "Asked AOC yesterday how important a Bowman win next week is for the left. "I always caution against any one race being a bellwether for anything else," she said. She started to laugh. "I say that as a person who ran and won and everyone said THIS IS A BELLWETHER!"" / Twitter

The Surge: Bowman vs. Engel, Sessions vs. Tuberville, and other primaries to watch.

1. NY-16 D Primary - Jun 23 - Eliot Engel vs. Jamaal Bowman
2. KY-SEN D Primary - Jun 23 - Amy McGrath vs. Charles Booker
3. MA-SEN D Primary - Sep 1 - Ed Markey vs. Joe Kennedy III
4. AL-SEN R Primary Runoff - Jul 14 - "Elf Cop" fmr. Sen., Atty. Gnl. Jeff Sessions vs. fmr. football coach Tommy Tuberville
5. NY-15 D Primary - Jun 23 - A Trumpie might win because he has so many opponents
6. MI-13 D Primary - Aug 4 - Rashida Tlaib vs. Brenda Jones
7. GA-04 R Primary Runoff - Aug 11 - QAnon believer Marjorie Greene vs. John Cowan.

Schumer endorses Rep. Eliot Engel in heated primary battle - Sen. Chuck Schumer
Cuomo, Schumer endorse embattled Rep. Engel in tough primary fight - Gov. Andrew Cuomo
Texas lawmaker endorses Eliot Engel | TheHill - Rep. Vicente González

 

[lpetrich]

Engel trails primary challenger by 10 points: poll | TheHill

Bowman, making his first run for office, won endorsements from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and from the rising stars of an emerging generation of progressive members of Congress like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.). Groups like Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party and Brand New Congress back Bowman, while most unions have stuck with Engel.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Congressional Black Caucus both back Engel, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The New York Times editorial board endorsed Bowman.

...
But Engel has run a lackluster campaign, even amid signs that progressives were making inroads in New York districts where longtime incumbents were sitting on their laurels.

AOC's victory ought to have been a hint to him that the same thing could happen to him. But it hasn't been.

Eliot Engel Down by Double Digits in New Poll - The American Prospect - lists some of the oodles of supporters that both EE and JB have.

Data for Progress NY-16 2020 D poll has JB: 41%, EE: 31%, not sure: 27% with a detailed breakdown by demographic factors.

Top Democrats Are Trying to Stop This Man From Becoming the Next A.O.C. - The New York Times - "Representative Eliot Engel’s primary contest against Jamaal Bowman in New York is a test of the Democratic establishment’s ability to withstand its emboldened left wing."

The latest big-name endorsements came in a span of 16 hours: On Monday afternoon, Hillary Clinton, making her first endorsement of any Democratic incumbent facing a primary in 2020, backed Mr. Engel; the following morning, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts endorsed Mr. Bowman.

...
Mr. Bowman has repeatedly attacked Mr. Engel’s staying at a home he owns in Maryland during long stretches of the coronavirus virus outbreak, as well as for much of his time in Washington.

“He doesn’t live in our community,” Mr. Bowman said in one online testimonial. “I live in our struggles.”

This argument seems to befuddle Mr. Engel, who said he bought the Maryland home after he was first elected in 1988 and had two small children at the time.

“I work in Washington and he’s going to deny me a place to sleep?” Mr. Engel said, adding, “You can’t stay on the, sleep on the, streets.”

As if one can't maintain residences in both one's district and in DC.

 

[lpetrich]

A New York Democrat Who Aligned With Republicans Could Be Headed To Congress | HuffPost

A New York Democrat whose alliance with Republicans helped block progressive measures in the state legislature is in a strong position to win the primary for a solidly Democratic district in Congress, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by the progressive think tank Data for Progress from May 28 to June 3, found that state Sen. David Carlucci has 15% support among likely voters in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District. Former Obama Pentagon official Evelyn Farkas and former federal prosecutor Adam Schleifer each have 13%, and attorney Mondaire Jones, the progressive favorite, has 12%.

Data for Progress nonetheless found that the race is fluid. Carlucci’s lead is within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points. And 38% of the 302 respondents said they were “unsure” for whom they would vote.

noting
Data for Progress NY-17 2020 D poll

Poll Claims Mondaire Jones Is New York Dems Best Chance to Stop Onetime Turncoat Candidate

The survey of 1,141 likely primary voters found Jones up by a surprising 11 points, at 25 percent, with Farkas and Schleifer tied for second at 14 percent, and Carlucci at fourth at 11. The undecided number had fallen to just 24 percent from 38 when DFP had surveyed. Asked for a second choice, 16 percent of voters named Farkas, while 11 percent named Jones. One in 10 voters said they had already sent in a ballot, and only a quarter said they planned the vote on Election Day, with the rest either voting by mail or early voting. Nearly a third of Jones supporters said they had already voted, by far more than his opponents, suggesting that Jones’s supporters are enthusiastic and/or he’s winning over the most plugged-in party activists and voters. The survey was conducted from June 15 to 16. The poll showed a sharp divergence between landline and text respondents, with Jones beating Farkas by 20 points among text-based survey takers, and by 4 points among landline respondents. Farkas polled at just 4 percent among voters under the age of 46, but was the favored candidate among those over 65. Landline respondents made up 56 percent of the poll.

So that's another possible progressive win, along with Jamaal Bowman.

 

[Harry Bosch]

‘We just need a win’: The left unites to take down Eliot Engel - POLITICO - "Progressives are channeling their grief, volunteer muscle and small-dollar donations into the effort to oust the longtime Democratic incumbent."

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, all of whom have shown caution in the past about backing primary challengers to incumbent Democrats, have endorsed Bowman. Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party, two left-wing groups that took different paths during the presidential race, announced they are coming together to spend more than a half-million dollars to elect Bowman. Former aides to Sanders and Warren have also publicly lined up behind Bowman.

The all-hands-on-deck strategy is a striking show of unity after the presidential campaign ended with deep rifts on the left — and it’s had a catalytic effect on Bowman’s bid in the run-up to the June 23 primary. But their efforts have also exposed party fissures, spurring Democratic establishment powerhouses such as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn to throw their support behind Engel.

Kara Eastman and Marie Newman aren't good enough? KE likely has a tough fight against incumbent Don Bacon (R), but MN is a likely win from how Democratic her district is.

Jamaal Bowman leads progressive charge to oust incumbent Eliot Engel - CNNPolitics Also mentions NY Rep Hakeem Jeffries as supporting EE.

I just wish that the "progressives" would get as excited to beat republicans as they do when they try to beat the meanie "longtime democratic incumbents".

 

[lpetrich]

‘We just need a win’: The left unites to take down Eliot Engel - POLITICO - "Progressives are channeling their grief, volunteer muscle and small-dollar donations into the effort to oust the longtime Democratic incumbent." ...
Jamaal Bowman leads progressive charge to oust incumbent Eliot Engel - CNNPolitics Also mentions NY Rep Hakeem Jeffries as supporting EE.

I just wish that the "progressives" would get as excited to beat republicans as they do when they try to beat the meanie "longtime democratic incumbents".

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

 

[Harry Bosch]

‘We just need a win’: The left unites to take down Eliot Engel - POLITICO - "Progressives are channeling their grief, volunteer muscle and small-dollar donations into the effort to oust the longtime Democratic incumbent." ...
Jamaal Bowman leads progressive charge to oust incumbent Eliot Engel - CNNPolitics Also mentions NY Rep Hakeem Jeffries as supporting EE.

I just wish that the "progressives" would get as excited to beat republicans as they do when they try to beat the meanie "longtime democratic incumbents".

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

I'm starting to dislike AOC. It's sad. Here's the deal, AOC and her small band won their races in democratically safe districts. The reason why we control congress today has nothing to do with them. The reason why we control congress today, and have a some resistance against Trump, is due to the about 44 moderate democrats who took away republican seats in moderate/right leaning districts from the republicans in 2018. Without these moderates that AOC despises, we wouldn't have congress today. Her vain desire to move to replace these moderates with like minded "justice democrats" is the greatest threat we have to losing those seats in the future.

 

[lpetrich]

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

I'm starting to dislike AOC. It's sad. Here's the deal, AOC and her small band won their races in democratically safe districts. The reason why we control congress today has nothing to do with them. The reason why we control congress today, and have a some resistance against Trump, is due to the about 44 moderate democrats who took away republican seats in moderate/right leaning districts from the republicans in 2018. Without these moderates that AOC despises, we wouldn't have congress today. Her vain desire to move to replace these moderates with like minded "justice democrats" is the greatest threat we have to losing those seats in the future.

I think that she's more careful about political strategy than that. Most of the Democratic incumbents targeted have been in strongly Democratic areas, places where a newcomer can easily win if he/she is a Democrat. Like what she herself did. She has also visited some Midwestern states and campaigned with like-minded politicians there.

Retirements spark scramble for open House seats in New York - Associated Press
Left eyes huge night in NY, Kentucky primaries | TheHill

Data for Progress has done polls on NY-15, NY-16, and NY-17, but I can't find anything from DFP on any other NYC-area race. Not even NY-14

A big problem with some of these races is the multitude of challengers. It's a problem that cries out for some alternative to first-past-the-post, like instant-runoff / alternative voting. One votes in it with a ranked-choice / preference ballot, where one ranks the candidates in one's preference order from one's first choice. One candidate has gotten around that problem by dropping out and endorsing another one: Andom Ghebreghiorgis in NY-16, who dropped out and then endorsed Jamaal Bowman. Elsewhere, Erica Vladimer has dropped out of NY-12, though she may have decided that she was not getting anywhere.

 

[TV and credit cards]

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

I'm starting to dislike AOC. It's sad. Here's the deal, AOC and her small band won their races in democratically safe districts. The reason why we control congress today has nothing to do with them. The reason why we control congress today, and have a some resistance against Trump, is due to the about 44 moderate democrats who took away republican seats in moderate/right leaning districts from the republicans in 2018. Without these moderates that AOC despises, we wouldn't have congress today. Her vain desire to move to replace these moderates with like minded "justice democrats" is the greatest threat we have to losing those seats in the future.

I like the idea of a strong progressive wing keeping the moderates in line. I've long since grown tired of the white collar crime that gets a slap on the wrist. When the moderates quietly cave to the wants of the moneygrubbers, I want AOC and her ilk screaming about it on social media. Of course to maintain a strong progressive wing, young blood must regularly gain seats as the elder progressives will slowly succumb to the evils of money.

 

[lpetrich]

From the poll numbers, I will estimate the effective number of candidates from  Effective number of parties.

Laakso and Taagapera:
\( N = \frac{1}{\sum_i (p_i)^2} \)
where the p_i's are fractions of the total.

Golotsov:
\( N = \sum_i \frac{p_i}{p_i + (p_1)^2 - (p_i)^2} \)
where p_1 is for the largest party.

Of the three districts, NY-15 effectively has 4 candidates, NY-16 2 candidates, and NY-17 5 candidates. In the poll, the biggest NY-15 candidate is Ruben Diaz, at 22%, and the biggest NY-17 candidate is David Carlucci at 15%.

In NY-15, the Left is split between Samelys Lopez (2%) and Tomas Ramos(1%).

The data numbers:

• NY-15: (not sure) 34%, Ruben Diaz, Sr. 22%, Ritchie Torres 20%, Melissa Mark-Viverito 6%, Michael A. Blake 6%, Ydanis Rodriguez 6%, Samelys Lopez 2%, Jonathan Ortiz 1%, Julio Pabon 1%, Tomas Ramos 1%, Marlene J. Tapper 0%
• NY-16: Jamaal Bowman 41%, Eliot Engel 31%, (not sure) 27%
• NY-17: (not sure) 38%, David Carlucci 15%, Adam Schleifer 13%, Evelyn Farkas 13%, Mondaire Jones 13%, David Buchwald 6%, Allison Fine 2%, Asha Castleberry Hernandez 1%, Catherine Parker 0%

 

[lpetrich]

Humanity Forward now has some official endorsements, but I'll be including the unofficial ones mentioned earlier. Inc: incumbent that is running, Prog: endorsed by other progressive organizations

• CA-34 - David Kim: official (Jimmy Gomez: Inc)
• FL-23 - Jen Perelman: official, Prog (Debbie Wasserman Schultz: Inc)
• HI-02 - Noelle Famera
• IA-04 - J.D. Scholten: official, Prog
• KY-SEN - Mike Broihier: official (Charles Booker: Prog)
• LA-SEN - Antoine Pierce: official
• MA-01 - Alex Morse: official, Prog (Richard Neal: Inc)
• MA-08 - Robbie Goldstein: official (Stephen Lynch: Inc)
• NJ-06 - Russ Cirincione: official (Frank Pallone: Inc)
• NY-06 - Grace Meng: Inc, official (Mel Gagarin: Prog)
• NY-07 - Paperboy Prince (Nydia Velazquez: Inc)
• NY-09 - Lutchi Guyot (Yvette Clarke: Inc, Isiah James: Prog)
• NY-10 - Jonathan Herzog (Jerrold Nadler: Inc, Lindsey Boylan: Prog)
• NY-13 - James Felton Keith II: withdrawn (Adriano Espaillat: Inc)
• NY-14 - Badrun Khan (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez : Inc, Prog)
• NY-15 - Chivona Renee Newsome (Tomas Ramos: Prog, Samelys Lopez: Prog)
• NY-16 - Sammy Ravelo (Eliot Engel: Inc, Jamaal Bowman: Prog)
• NY-27 - Nate McMurray: official
• OH-13 - Tim Ryan: official, Inc
• OR-01 - Heidi Briones: defeated (Suzanne Bonamici: Inc)
• TN-01 - Blair Walsingham: official

There is very little overlap between the Yang Gang's candidates and candidates endorsed by other progressive organizations, like Brand New Congress.

 

[lpetrich]

The Associated Press article mentioned NY-02, NY-15, NY-17

Lopez, 40, said some of her opponents are merely “posing as progressives.” She cited the City Council’s vote last year to close the city’s Rikers Island jail complex and replace it with several smaller jails. Rather than build more jails, Lopez said, the city should invest in criminal justice reform that puts fewer people behind bars.

...
“We need to send someone who knows how the system works in Washington,” Farkas said. “In Washington a lot hinges on whether you know the process and if you have the trust and the relationships to get things done.”

...
Another candidate, State Sen. David Carlucci, 39, could be hampered by his membership in the Independent Democratic Conference, a breakaway faction of Democrats that allied itself with Republicans in the state Senate until it dissolved in 2018.

TheHill's article mentioned KY-SEN, NY-16, NY-17

Meanwhile, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Jones with an 11-point advantage over his two closest rivals, Evelyn Farkas and Adam Schleifer.

...
Progressives say the mere fact that their candidates are considered competitive in races that would have easily been won by more moderate and establishment-backed candidates a few years ago is a testament to their growing influence in the Democratic Party.

...
“Booker and Bowman are — forget about where they are on the spectrum — they’re good candidates,” he said. “I think too often, the progressive movement is willing to wrap their arms around people who channel their anger at the establishment without understanding whether those people can actually run good races and are good candidates.”

Conservative Democrat who says he’s ‘the opposite of AOC' considered a top candidate in NY congressional race | Fox News - because of massive vote splitting by his opponents.

 

[lpetrich]

NY-03 (N Long Island): Tom Suozzi has 2 challengers: Melanie D'Arrigo, Michael Weinstock -- newcomers

NY-04 (S Long Island): Kathleen Rice

NY-05 (SE Queens): Gregory Meeks has 1 challenger: Shaniyat Chowdhury -- newcomer

NY-06 (C,E Queens): Grace Meng has 2 challengers: Melquiades Gagarin, Sandra Choi -- newcomers

NY-07 (W,N Brooklyn): Nydia Velazquez has 1 challenger: Paperboy Prince -- newcomer

NY-08 (E Brooklyn): Hakeem Jeffries

NY-09 (C Brooklyn): Yvette Clarke has 4 challengers: Adem Bunkeddeko, Chaim M. Deutsch, Lutchi Gayot, Isiah James -- in 2018 D primary, YC: 53.0% AB: 47.0%. In 2018 main election: YC: 89.3%, LG: 10.3% (LG ran as a Republican). CD had been elected to the NYC Council, and he's running as a moderate. IJ is a newcomer.

NY-10 (W Manhattan, W,C Brooklyn): Jerrold Nadler has 2 challengers: Jonathan Herzog, Lindsey Boylan -- newcomers

NY-11 (Staten Island, SW Brooklyn): Max Rose

NY-12 (E Manhattan, W Queens): Carolyn B. Maloney has 3 challengers: Suraj Patel, Lauren Ashcraft, Peter Harrison -- in 2018 D primary, CM: 59.6%, SP 40.4%, LA & PH are newcomers

NY-13 (N Manhattan): Adriano Espaillat has 1 challenger: Ramon Rodriguez -- newcomer

NY-14 (E Bronx, N Queens): Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has 3 challengers: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Badrun Khan, Sam Sloan -- SS has run in some previous elections, though without ever getting much of the vote. MCC & BK are newcomers

NY-15 (S Bronx): (open seat) several candidates with varying amounts of experience

NY-16 (N Bronx, upstate NY): Eliot Engel has 3 challengers: Jamaal Bowman, Sammy Ravelo, Chris Fink -- newcomers

NY-17 (upstate NY): (open seat) several candidates with varying amounts of experience


My descriptions don't give justice to how weirdly shaped some of these districts are. Members of Congress & Congressional District Maps - GovTrack.us shows them.

 

[lpetrich]

Who is running in New York 9, 15, 16, 17 district Democratic primaries - Business Insider

In the 2018 Democratic primary, Clarke narrowly won re-election with 53% of the vote against progressive primary challenger Adem Bunkeddeko, a community organizer and son of Ugandan refugees.

Bunkeddeko is running for the Democratic nomination again this year in his second attempt to defeat Clarke, styling himself as a reformer and an "anti-machine progressive."

Clarke, who has served in the House since 2006, also faces challenges from Isiah James, endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, and New York City Councilman Chaim Deutsch, who is running to her right as more moderate Democrat.

A Homophobe Has The Strongest Chance At Winning Bronx's 15th Congressional District Seat. But Others May Come Out On Top - Gothamist

The father of the Bronx Borough President with the same name, Diaz boasts a man-of-the-people image that has consistently kept him in office, showering constituents with free giveaways, a robust constituent services unit at his office, and his quarterly “Abrazo” events where residents are treated to a lavish party for free. Diaz’s voting bloc also includes the number of small-scale Pentecostal churches dotted around the district, and they've contributed significantly to his campaign.

...
Kappstatter has also noticed that Diaz has also cleverly dropped the suffix "Sr." on the ballot, theorizing it's an attempt to trick voters into thinking they're casting a ballot for Diaz's son, who's immensely popular borough-wide.

A warning about New York's elections this year: absentee ballots may take some time to arrive, and close races may be unresolved until June 30. Maryland suggests how bad it may be. That state has a lot of incomplete reporting that has been unchanged since June 5.

 

[Harry Bosch]

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

I'm starting to dislike AOC. It's sad. Here's the deal, AOC and her small band won their races in democratically safe districts. The reason why we control congress today has nothing to do with them. The reason why we control congress today, and have a some resistance against Trump, is due to the about 44 moderate democrats who took away republican seats in moderate/right leaning districts from the republicans in 2018. Without these moderates that AOC despises, we wouldn't have congress today. Her vain desire to move to replace these moderates with like minded "justice democrats" is the greatest threat we have to losing those seats in the future.

I think that she's more careful about political strategy than that. Most of the Democratic incumbents targeted have been in strongly Democratic areas, places where a newcomer can easily win if he/she is a Democrat. Like what she herself did. She has also visited some Midwestern states and campaigned with like-minded politicians there.

Retirements spark scramble for open House seats in New York - Associated Press
Left eyes huge night in NY, Kentucky primaries | TheHill

Data for Progress has done polls on NY-15, NY-16, and NY-17, but I can't find anything from DFP on any other NYC-area race. Not even NY-14

A big problem with some of these races is the multitude of challengers. It's a problem that cries out for some alternative to first-past-the-post, like instant-runoff / alternative voting. One votes in it with a ranked-choice / preference ballot, where one ranks the candidates in one's preference order from one's first choice. One candidate has gotten around that problem by dropping out and endorsing another one: Andom Ghebreghiorgis in NY-16, who dropped out and then endorsed Jamaal Bowman. Elsewhere, Erica Vladimer has dropped out of NY-12, though she may have decided that she was not getting anywhere.

I'll do some research on this. And if you're correct, I'll apologize. I heard that she is helping a far left person in Kentucky against a popular moderate. And that they are trying for a seat against a powerful republican incumbent. Again, I might be wrong, but I know that Kentucky is very conservative.

 

[Harry Bosch]

They don't want a Democratic Party that is a Republican-lite party, a Democratic Party that is in the pay of big-money interests.

I'm starting to dislike AOC. It's sad. Here's the deal, AOC and her small band won their races in democratically safe districts. The reason why we control congress today has nothing to do with them. The reason why we control congress today, and have a some resistance against Trump, is due to the about 44 moderate democrats who took away republican seats in moderate/right leaning districts from the republicans in 2018. Without these moderates that AOC despises, we wouldn't have congress today. Her vain desire to move to replace these moderates with like minded "justice democrats" is the greatest threat we have to losing those seats in the future.

I like the idea of a strong progressive wing keeping the moderates in line. I've long since grown tired of the white collar crime that gets a slap on the wrist. When the moderates quietly cave to the wants of the moneygrubbers, I want AOC and her ilk screaming about it on social media. Of course to maintain a strong progressive wing, young blood must regularly gain seats as the elder progressives will slowly succumb to the evils of money.

So, not going after white collar crime is what you consider to be a moderate? Could you give some examples?