Four Reasons Trump Could Win

[SLD]

In no particular order:

1. Ground game. The Biden campaign has no real ground game. Due to COVID, they have not relied on canvassing and get out the vote campaigns. They’ll be few or no rides to the polls in key swing states. They’ve instead relied on ads. Trump has done the opposite.

2. Shy Trump supporters in swing states. They might be voting for Trump, but don’t want their neighbors to know. Many Republican operatives in key swing states say they have witnessed this a lot and don’t believe the polls in states like PA, MI and even Minnesota.

3. Mail in ballot issues. Pennsylvania just rejected 100,000 ballots for not being properly certified. This is less than Trump’s margin in 2016, and I’d bet a lot were Dem voters. It could happen in other states too. Democrats are relying more on early voting and it is not the best way.

4. COVID keeps people from going to the polls. Dems have been playing up the COVID crisis, but that could keep people away from the polls on Election Day, and it will keep away far more Dems than Repugs. With Trump pooh-pooing COVID risks, Republicans aren’t as likely to be deterred from going to the polls on November 3rd.

A potential fifth reason is that economy continues to recover thanks to the previous relief bills. An incumbent generally wins during an economic recovery, and for some strange reason voters give Trump high marks on the economy.

Obviously this election is far from over. Too many Democrats though are acting like it is. While the polls are right now in their favor, a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The email October surprise scandal may actually work. A lot of things can happen. Trump will likely do better in the second debate. It’s hard to imagine a worse performance than the last. Thus it will be a victory for him - or at least perceived as such, which is all that counts.

But Biden could also pull his own October surprise. And maybe enough early voting will solidify his present polling lead.

SLD

 

[Worldtraveller]

1. Cheating. Voter intimidation by armed thugs causing at least some people to be afraid to go to the polls.

2. Cheating. GOP governors purging voter rolls and 'disqualifying' thousands of votes for bullshit reasons.

3. Cheating. Filing court cases to discourage accurate votes in every state.

4. Cheating. In other ways we haven't even thought of yet.

 

[ideologyhunter]

1. Trump gets on the debate stage, strides over to the flag, body hugs it (with a definite pelvic switch and pump), pulls the fabric off the flag pole, wraps it around his torso (adjusting his belt to close the gap where the fabric gives out).
2. He advances on Biden with handcuffs, pulls off his mask, and loudly breathes into Joe's face: "BARR'S TOO NICE. I'M NOT!! YOU'RE UNDER ARREST FOR SMOKING DOOBIES WITH YOUR SON AND FOR THE EMAILS!" Cuffs Biden and hustles him to the wings, where black-clad Q-ninjas take Biden to an undisclosed location.
3. Trump goes to his microphone while Q-ninjas light two torches on either side of him, standing them on posts carved with Masonic symbols and crudely drawn female genitalia. Trump: "CLOSE UP ON ME, FELLAS." He proceeds to rant for 50 minutes straight on the coup he has just foiled and the charges against Biden, which include treason, collusion, the murder of Herman Cain, drug trafficking, frottage, aggravated frottage, and expired license tags. In the meantime Ivanka holds the world's tiniest purse pistol on Kristen Welker and escorts her offstage.
4. In the following days, DeJoy's delivery trucks dump bags and bags of mail-in ballots on the WH lawn, which Trump torches on election night in a giant maskless ceremony. A 40-foot high foam statue of Baal, spray-painted gold, is wheeled out to the festivities, and a nearly-nude (and surprisingly, bitchin' hot) Kellyanne does the dance of the veils around it. Trump announces free Big Macs on Nov.4, to be paid for by his Foundation. Also open enrollment for the Trump University reboot. America is great again.

 

[Patooka]

1. Ground game. The Biden campaign has no real ground game. Due to COVID, they have not relied on canvassing and get out the vote campaigns. They’ll be few or no rides to the polls in key swing states. They’ve instead relied on ads. Trump has done the opposite.

Biden doesn't need a ground game. I have never seen so many spam ads motivating people to get out to vote. The amount of TV personalities, radio shows and webshows promoting such an attitude the election is unprecedented and registering to vote rarely favours the incumbent. I hesitate to call it a grassroots movement (because I believe grassroots movements are about as real as unicorns), but there is a large disorganized movement independent of Biden that is promoting his campaign. So anything is does on top is pretty redundant.

Conversely, Trump's "ground game" has been utterly superfluous. He has not gained a single voter than he did in 2016 and by all indications has lost quite a few.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Fuck it up and throw it to the states or the court.

 

[Mumbles]

In no particular order:

1. Ground game. The Biden campaign has no real ground game. Due to COVID, they have not relied on canvassing and get out the vote campaigns. They’ll be few or no rides to the polls in key swing states. They’ve instead relied on ads. Trump has done the opposite.

Well, no. They don't have people going door to door, and they don't have centralized phone banks. That's about it. And campaigns don't really provide rides - that's the sort of thing that third parties provide instead, mostly for legal reasons.

2. Shy Trump supporters in swing states. They might be voting for Trump, but don’t want their neighbors to know. Many Republican operatives in key swing states say they have witnessed this a lot and don’t believe the polls in states like PA, MI and even Minnesota.

Pollsters typically make it clear that results are entirely anonymous, so it's not more or less of an issue than it is in any other election.

3. Mail in ballot issues. Pennsylvania just rejected 100,000 ballots for not being properly certified. This is less than Trump’s margin in 2016, and I’d bet a lot were Dem voters. It could happen in other states too. Democrats are relying more on early voting and it is not the best way.

Dicey...but given the active attempts to suppress black/young voters, which are mostly sidestepped by this, mean higher voter turnout for dems in total. IOW, this one's difficult to read at all.

4. COVID keeps people from going to the polls. Dems have been playing up the COVID crisis, but that could keep people away from the polls on Election Day, and it will keep away far more Dems than Repugs. With Trump pooh-pooing COVID risks, Republicans aren’t as likely to be deterred from going to the polls on November 3rd.

Thus, again, the mail-in ballots and early voting sites.

Obviously this election is far from over. Too many Democrats though are acting like it is. While the polls are right now in their favor, a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The email October surprise scandal may actually work. A lot of things can happen. Trump will likely do better in the second debate. It’s hard to imagine a worse performance than the last. Thus it will be a victory for him - or at least perceived as such, which is all that counts.

The only reason why Dolt 45 will do "better" is if they actively mute him, and they don't show him scowling and flailing silently every time Biden gets to talk. Dolt 45 won't change, because Dolt 45 simply doesn't change. Every ugly thing he's done during his presidency is in keeping with the white supremacist, power hungry, validation-needing conman he's been since he was first sued for discrimination in the 70s.

No, anything to change the election results at this point will need to be an *actual* surprise.

 

[prideandfall]

6. due to the way the electoral college works there are a roughly even amount of R and D votes every election, and who wins really just comes down to which side is more fired up and pissed off that year and turns out more, notably in the stupid key 'battleground' states that can go either way and have an absurdly high number of electoral votes.
so the country is pretty evenly split between Rs and Ds and the Rs love trump so could get out there for him and he could win that way.

 

[ZiprHead]

2. Shy Trump supporters in swing states. They might be voting for Trump, but don’t want their neighbors to know. Many Republican operatives in key swing states say they have witnessed this a lot and don’t believe the polls in states like PA, MI and even Minnesota.

Pollsters typically make it clear that results are entirely anonymous, so it's not more or less of an issue than it is in any other election.

There are probably just as many shy Biden voters as there are shy Trump voters.

 

[Elixir]

1. Cheating. Voter intimidation by armed thugs causing at least some people to be afraid to go to the polls.

2. Cheating. GOP governors purging voter rolls and 'disqualifying' thousands of votes for bullshit reasons.

3. Cheating. Filing court cases to discourage accurate votes in every state.

4. Cheating. In other ways we haven't even thought of yet.

Yup. That.
It's really only one way, though.
Cheating - it's what Trump does, it's what the Party of Trump does.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Incumbancy is always an advantage. W was under water and Iraq going pear shaped, and he won re-election. Obama under water because his deaths panels were signing off on over 225,000 deaths (wait... that didn't actually happen), and he solidly won re-election.

I think what needs to be done is look at the original electoral college for the first wins of W, Obama, and Trump and then justify why any of those states would change. W lost New Hampshire but gained New Mexico (anyone remember that) and Iowa. Everything else was static. 47 states stayed the same.

Obama lost Indiana and North Carolina (and a gerrymander district in Nebraska that had gone for him in '08). 48 states were static.

Both W and Obama were underwater, but not terribly so, and the electoral map barely changed. This is sombering. Granted, with Trump, who won three critical states by a combined 70,000ish votes, that changes things. Obama lost a good deal of popular votes in 2012 verses 2008, where as W won a lot more. This helps provide both evidence for and against Trump in '20. Especially when considering how fucking elastic his support is. It doesn't matter how many times it gets to 40% or lower approval... it always​ comes back!

So why do states change? In '04, nothing changed. In '12, reddish purple states that got excited over a landslide winner and first time Black President weren't so excited.

2020? Trump? His base is his base and the Red Hats and Brownshirts haven't gone anywhere. So that means in order for Biden to win, he needs to get the vote out! And in states like WI, MI, and PA, that should be possible. There should be enough slack to make up the difference. But how many more voters come out in '20 for Trump like they did for W in 2004 (presuming Diebold didn't steal the election)? A good deal of presumption for 2020 is that the people know better now. But they already knew better in 2016. So honestly, I'm just depressing the fuck out of myself right now.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

2020? Trump? His base is his base and the Red Hats and Brownshirts haven't gone anywhere. So that means in order for Biden to win, he needs to get the vote out! And in states like WI, MI, and PA, that should be possible. There should be enough slack to make up the difference. But how many more voters come out in '20 for Trump like they did for W in 2004 (presuming Diebold didn't steal the election)? A good deal of presumption for 2020 is that the people know better now. But they already knew better in 2016. So honestly, I'm just depressing the fuck out of myself right now.

There are tens of millions of reasons Orange Face can win. It can be depressing.

 

[Elixir]

2020? Trump? His base is his base and the Red Hats and Brownshirts haven't gone anywhere. So that means in order for Biden to win, he needs to get the vote out! And in states like WI, MI, and PA, that should be possible. There should be enough slack to make up the difference. But how many more voters come out in '20 for Trump like they did for W in 2004 (presuming Diebold didn't steal the election)? A good deal of presumption for 2020 is that the people know better now. But they already knew better in 2016. So honestly, I'm just depressing the fuck out of myself right now.

There are tens of millions of reasons Orange Face can win. It can be depressing.

The most depressing reason of all: