Gambling sites on the Presidential race

[lpetrich]

I've decided to look at probability estimates done by the operators of an online gambling site, mybookie.ag (Antigua and Barbuda)

The site uses American odds, where the probability of winning is given as follows:
Negative: |odds|/(100 + |odds|)
Positive: 100/(100 + |odds|)

The total is greater than 1 because part of one's bet is a vig or bookie fee.

Here is what the site lists:

Winning party? Both Democratic and Republican: -120 -- meaning a probability of 6/11 of each party winning, or a total of 12/11.

Democratic Vice-Presidential Nomination?

• Kamala Harris +130
• Val Demings +350
• Elizabeth Warren +700
• Keisha Lance Bottoms +900
• Stacey Abrams +1000
• Michelle Obama +1200
• Amy Klobuchar +1400
• Tammy Duckworth +1600
• Susan Rice +1600
• Gretchen Whitmer +1800
• Hillary Clinton +4000
• Michelle Lujan Grisham +3000
• Tammy Baldwin +5000
• Catherine Cortez Masto +8000
• Andrew Cuomo +8000
• Tulsi Gabbard +10000

Winner?

• Donald Trump -120
• Joe Biden -110
• Hillary Clinton +3000
• Mike Pence +8000
• Michelle Obama +6000
• Nikki Haley +12500
• Andrew Cuomo +6000
• Joe Biden -1800
• Hillary Clinton +1000
• Michelle Obama +2000
• Andrew Cuomo +2200

Republican nomination?

• Donald Trump -2200
• Mike Pence +1200
• Nikki Haley +3000
• Mitt Romney +5000
• Paul Ryan +15000
• John Kasich +15000

Who wins the popular vote?

• Democrats -400
• Republicans +250

Who controls the House of Representatives?

• Democrats -360
• Republicans +250

 

[lpetrich]

I don't want to encourage gambling. It's too easy to lose a lot of money on it. Unless one is careful to set a limit of how much money one is willing to lose before one quits. I have a relative who considered gambling a form of entertainment -- he did that.

I'm posting on this to show the likelihood estimates of the sites' operators and participants.

At gambling.com

• Joe Biden -110 Democrat
• Donald Trump +105 Republican
• Hillary Clinton +5000 Democrat
• Michelle Obama +5000 Democrat
• Mike Pence +6600 Republican
• Andrew Cuomo +1000 Democrat
• Bernie Sanders +10000 Democrat

At usracing.com are some totally absurd numbers:

• Donald Trump 1/3 -300
• Bernie Sanders 7/2 +350
• Michael Bloomberg 6/1 +600
• Pete Buttigieg 12/1 +1200
• Joe Biden 20/1 +2000
• Amy Klobuchar 33/1 +3300
• (several more)

(Fractional and American odds)

Why do the usracing.com people think that Trump is much more likely to win than any of the Democrats??? They also thought that Bernie Sanders was much more likely to win than Joe Biden or any of the others.

mybookie's numbers look plausible. It's still something of a tossup between Trump and Biden, and it's unlikely that Trump will win the popular vote. Likewise for gambling.com

 

[lpetrich]

There's a site called PredictIt.

You make predictions by buying shares. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place. Buy ‘Yes’ shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ‘No’ shares when you think they are too optimistic.

It's currently at Biden 54c Trump 47c -- its participants think that Biden is more likely to win, but not by a large margin.

There are also bets on who is likely to win the Republican nomination. Trump is at 93c, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence at 3c, Mitt Romney at 2c, and a lot of well-known Republican politicians at 1c.

For Democratic VP, Kamala Harris does the best at 46c, with Val Demings at 14c, Elizabeth Warren at 9c, and the rest of them trailing off.

For control of the Senate, it's Dem 52c, GOP 48c. For the House, Dem 80c, GOP 20c.

Also a lot of bets on which politicians are likely to win or lose.

 

[lpetrich]

• NY-14: D primary: AOC win 94c lose 6c
• MI-13: D primary: Rashida Tlaib win 90c lose 10c
• MN-05: D primary: Ilhan Omar win 94c lose 6c
• ME-SEN: Dem 67c GOP 34c
• AZ-SEN: Special: Dem 84c GOP 20c
• KY-SEN: GOP 80c Dem 19c

 

[Elixir]

Predictit has a gloomy outlook for Trump right now, with all the tossup states leaning significantly toward biden. Some totals are greater (or less than) than 100 because prices are bid. Numbers are the number of pennies most recently paid per share. Shares mature at $1 if you are correct.

FL is a true 50/50 tossup as is NC (Biden 51, Trump 50). But where Trump "broke the blue wall" it's a different story; WI is 60/40 for Biden, MI is 69/31 Biden etc.

Will Trump win any state he lost in 2016?
Yes: 34
No: 66

Will Trump lose any State he won in 2016?
Yes: 84
No: 16

Even though the head-to-head question "Who will win the 2020 presidential election" is fairly close (55/46 Biden) the relevant peripheral questions seem more lopsided.