Good Gawd, please not 269-269!!!

[skepticalbip]

Hopefully, the polls are projecting numbers better this year, especially in light of no third party proponent stealing poll numbers, but not votes. 269 to 269 would be about as crushing an outcome for the US as could be. Trump winning in a landslide would hurt less than a 269-269 outcome.

In an electoral tie I think that the house would then choose the president and the senate would choose the VP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

Yes. If no candidate gets a majority of electoral college votes then the House elects the President. But, as I understand, it isn't the normal vote where each representative gets a vote. It is a 'block vote' where the representatives from each state unite to cast one vote. In other words, each state gets one vote so Wyoming with a population of a bit over a half million would have as much say as California with a population of almost 40 million.

ETA:

I should have read the whole thread before posting.
Terrell already posted this.

 

[Swammerdami]

I think fivethirtyeight's 1% estimate [of a 269-269 tie] is low.

I don't know why the arithmetic of the EC seems to fascinate me. Perhaps it's a way to distract myself from a coming calamity: I just read that GOP operatives have made some 85,000 robocalls in urban areas like Detroit "informing" citizens that voting might lead to arrest or forced vaccination.

Start with a list of all states where Biden is leading polls by at least 2% but less than 7%. (Biden is up only 1.1% in Florida.) I'll add the two undecided single EV's to the list, and cross out Ohio and Nevada, which are predicted to go R and D respectively despite the close polls:

11 Arizona Biden+2.8
XX 18 Ohio Biden+3.3
16 Michigan Biden+5.2
XX 6 Nevada Biden+5.3
10 Wisconsin Biden+5.5
20 Pennsylvania Biden+6.0
1 Rural Maine
1 Omaha​

This leaves 4 states and 2 districts (with 59 EVs total) where the election will be decided. Assuming each of these six is a 50-50 tossup, there are 64 equally-likely outcomes. Biden gets 231 outside this group; Trump 248.

64.1% -- Trump gets more than 270
04.7% -- Trump gets 270 exactly
04.7% -- 269-269 Tie
01.6% -- Biden gets 270 exactly
25.0% -- Biden gets more than 270​

Yes, I've "cherry-picked" the set-up. Still a 269-269 tie (even followed by a 25-25 House split!) is hardly far-fetched. The way things are going, I assume the result will be at least that weird.