You made a claim of about crossover appeal but Democrats are not “crossovers” from Democratic candidates.
If a candidate appealed to members of the more conservative of the two major parties, what would you expect poll results of conservative Democrats and independents to look like, if not this? I'm just saying this is the only data we have, and it doesn't support the narrative everyone is pushing about Bernie having only fringe left appeal.
First of all, that 30% of Independents is a measure of New Hampshire Independents, not necessarily indies as a whole across the nation. Second, Independents made up only 19% of the polling demographic, so that's 30% of 19%:
Third, that falls within the 21% overall who said that they would vote for Bernie if the Dem primary were held today:
If the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary were held today, 21% of likely primary voters say they would vote for Sanders, 18% would vote for Warren, 15% would vote for Biden, and 10% would vote for Buƫgieg.
So, 30% of 19% of 21%.
Fourth, that ideological breakdown is not specific to party affiliation:
Those are separate categories, so the ideology component is a measure of the entire polling pool, not Indies alone. In other words, included in there would be Democrats and Indies that consider themselves to be "moderate" or "conservative" along with Republicans who consider themselves to be "moderate" or "conservative."
Since the definitions of those terms would vary wildly between Dems, Indies and Republicans, how do you weight that category? A Democratic saying they are "conservative" is a thousand miles away from a Republican saying the same thing, yes? And to a Republican, anyone on the left--whether they claim to be conservative, moderate or liberal--would simply be liberal.
But, we know from PEW that, in general, Indies are more or less split down the middle as a group, with a slight leftward lean, but let's just go with 50/50 and combine the moderate and conservative to split.
So, at best, of the 30% of the 19% Indies of the 21% overall that would vote Bernie, 17% of 15% "mod/con" Indies represent "crossover" appeal.
Anyone care to do the math on 17% of 15% of 30% of 19% of 21% or can we simply call that fringe?
