How much do you think voter disenfranchisement will be a thing in the US 2020 Presidential Election?

[Patooka]

I really don't have a leg to stand on to criticize how US election work/don't work. I'm not an American. However, US elections are often used as comparisons around the world as yardsticks on how much "the other side" can get away with during an election campaign. Foreign policy throughout the world is made or scrapped depending on the words (or more recently, tweets) of the United States President. I'm not getting into whether that is a good or bad thing, it's just a thing that I recognize. So with that in mind, a lot of people will be observing the 2020 election and plan accordingly.

Personally, I believe the 2020 US Presidential election campaign will be one of the most superfluous campaigns in recent history. It's highly unlikely Trump won't be the Republican nominee. And with that in mind, every one has already made up their mind about Trump. It's impossible to believe there are people still undecided about the man. If one supports Trump, the reasons won't change in the next 18 months. Same if one is anti Trump (I fall into that category and for me at least, that is a certainty). As a result, I suspect whomever the Democrats elect in their primary is almost incidental. And whilst this is comparable to the 2004 election where it was Bush vs NotBush, I suspect the divisiveness of this election cycle is far, far more pronounced. The election appears to be shaping up as a referendum on Trump more than anything else.

So with that in mind, here are a few points. Donald Trump lost the popular vote in the last election. Trump claimed that the reason he lost the popular vote was because of the amount of voter fraud in states where Hillary Clinton won. The electoral fraud commission that was he launched found nothing of the sort. Quite the opposite, in fact. And Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the votes than his Republican predecessor, Mitt Romney, 46.1% to 47.2% respectively. And whilst the last week have had some prominent former Trump supporters changing their tune, I suspect whoever still has their wagon hitched with Trump are in for the duration.

So how can Donald Trump win the 2020 election? He is not going to win new voters, everybody's mind has been made up about him. The Democrats could self implode, but I suspect the Democrat party took the lessons of 2016 to heart. Discrediting the Democratic nominee is possible, but everyone is now suspicious of swiftboating since the 2004 elections. So it's my opinion that the only Trump can win the election is by denying people who vote Democrat the ability to do so. And whilst Trump is a fucking moron, the people propping him up are not.

So, how much voter disenfranchisement do you lot think will occur in 2020? Voter suppression isn't new, but somehow I think it's going to be revved up to eleven in the next election.

 

[southernhybrid]

I don't think any of us really know. I just read an article this morning that discussed that the type of computer hacking that has happened in several cities over the last year or two, could also be used just prior to the election to cause chaos. On the other hand, there are organizations, such as "Fair Fight", that are working very hard to fight voter suppression and make it easier for people to register to vote. It's hard to predict whether the next election will be better or worse when it comes to who will have difficulty voting, whether or not our voting equipment is accurate etc. I read recently that our horrible governor agreed to have machines that include a paper trail. We shall see if this actually happens.

I disagree with you about Trump supporters not changing their minds. Recently, polls seem to give me the impression that Trump is losing more supporters. For example, I read about a reporter who interviewed voters in some states that Trump won. Voters didn't like Trump or Clinton but that disliked Clinton more so they voted for Trump. This time, the same voters were asked to choose between Trump and Biden. Voters said they didn't like Trump or Biden but they would vote for Biden. Not all Trump supporters are that crazy about him. Many of them just voted for him because he was different or because they despised Clinton. So, I do think that if the economy becomes more unstable and/or if Trump continues to look even more unfit than he currently does, then more voters will turn against him. He may not lose his hard core base of around 30%, but there is plenty of evidence that many of his female supporters have turned against him. His base primarily consists of white males with less than a college education.

One recent poll even showed that more people are saying that they will vote for anyone but Trump. This is a big change from several months ago. I really don't think we know enough yet to predict how this will all end up.

 

[Elixir]

I don't think any of us really know. I just read an article this morning that discussed that the type of computer hacking that has happened in several cities over the last year or two, could also be used just prior to the election to cause chaos. On the other hand, there are organizations, such as "Fair Fight", that are working very hard to fight voter suppression and make it easier for people to register to vote. It's hard to predict whether the next election will be better or worse when it comes to who will have difficulty voting, whether or not our voting equipment is accurate etc. I read recently that our horrible governor agreed to have machines that include a paper trail. We shall see if this actually happens.

I disagree with you about Trump supporters not changing their minds. Recently, polls seem to give me the impression that Trump is losing more supporters. For example, I read about a reporter who interviewed voters in some states that Trump won. Voters didn't like Trump or Clinton but that disliked Clinton more so they voted for Trump. This time, the same voters were asked to choose between Trump and Biden. Voters said they didn't like Trump or Biden but they would vote for Biden. Not all Trump supporters are that crazy about him. Many of them just voted for him because he was different or because they despised Clinton. So, I do think that if the economy becomes more unstable and/or if Trump continues to look even more unfit than he currently does, then more voters will turn against him. He may not lose his hard core base of around 30%, but there is plenty of evidence that many of his female supporters have turned against him. His base primarily consists of white males with less than a college education.

One recent poll even showed that more people are saying that they will vote for anyone but Trump. This is a big change from several months ago. I really don't think we know enough yet to predict how this will all end up.

Just as I go to bed assuming I'll wake up in the morning, I assume that one way or another the Trump Administration (and Trump) will be gone around 1/21/2021.
In both cases, there's not much point in even considering the alternative.