Or it's simply political, they feel the need to be "for" peace but know Ukraine isn't going to accept a cease-fire while winning.
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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
- Start date
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
I suspect that the US and Europeans do not think Putin will call a ceasefire because they urge one, and he even more certainly won't withdraw from areas taken. This is now a blood feud between Ukraine and Russia, so public calls don't stand much of a chance of being workable, but they do have propaganda value for domestic consumption. They remind the public that diplomacy is still ultimately the only way to end the war. Both sides have to feel that they can stop fighting and save face in some way. The ultimate solution will likely please no one, but it will be less objectionable than all the alternatives. Ideally, I suppose, there would be some kind of surgical coup in Russia to remove the kleptocratic tumor called Vladimir Putin, but the patient (Russia) may be inoperable. And that is just wishful thinking.
lpetrich
Contributor
Russian battalion wiped out trying to cross river of death | News | The Times - Thursday May 12 2022, 2.45pm BST, The Times
With success like that and like just north of Kharkiv, Ukraine is not likely to agree to a ceasefire.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Reportedly, hundreds--maybe around a thousand--Russian soldiers perished in the operation. That is the tragedy of war. Putin has brought suffering to so many Ukrainian families, but every one of those dead Russian soldiers also had families. He has created a torrent of mass human suffering in order to carry out revenge for the humiliation and angst he felt over the collapse of the Russian-dominated Soviet empire.
lpetrich
Contributor
lpetrich
Contributor
However,
Erdoğan says Turkey does not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Ro RTE wants to be the Joe Manchin of NATO?
Erdoğan says Turkey does not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Turkey's leader opposes letting Finland, Sweden join NATO | AP News
Erdogan says Turkey not supportive of Finland, Sweden joining NATO | Reuters
Ro RTE wants to be the Joe Manchin of NATO?
Harry Bosch
Contributor
It sometimes makes me sick to my stomach to watch soldiers being killed on the battlefield via the drone videos. And this attack was quite striking. However, the Russians are in a country that did not welcome them. They are stealing land, blowing up buildings and hospitals, killing people, killing civilians, shooting them in the back of the head while being bound, and stealing everything that they can get their hands on. Sadly, this war isn't going to end until the invaders are pushed out.
Jayjay
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In this case, the attacks were repelled. But Russia kept trying, I think three times if not more, to cross that river and establish a bridge head on the other side.
Until Ukraine has capability to launch their own offensives (which may take months), it has to succeed to defeat the attackers every time, Russia only has to succeed once. And while this was going on, Russia took Popasna and maybe another village North of it, and is moving artillery in range to reach Zaporizhzhia. It's not going well.
I think this will end with either Russia annexing large swaths of Ukraine, or a nuclear exchange.
Harry Bosch
Contributor
You are a little more pessimistic than me my friend. The Ukrainians had primarily defensive weapons. They had to wait until the Russians were within their range, then they launched, and then ran away. Very effective against an ineffective uninspired army lead by imbeciles. However, Russians are finally getting smarter and are lagging back, relying on their long range artillery which are very effective long range. Ukrainians didn't have long range weapons (drones, and most battlefield missiles are not long range.) But the west has been sending in long range artillery to the front lines in the south. The US made Howitzers are going to start chewing up the Russian artillery. Once that's more balanced, their motivated troops will counter attack more effectively. Ironically, Ukraine has more in reserves (civilians training to join the fight) and more arms entering the country. The Ukrainians are motivated, backs to the wall, with nothing to lose. Could be my imagination, but it seems to me that Russia is starting to crack up. There are cracks showing. China is tiring of the war. It's starting to tilt towards Ukraine. Let's see...
TV and credit cards
Contributor
When I read Russia was considering annexing parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine rather than setting up independent republics, the first thing I thought was more nuclear saber rattling will ensue. It's nearly all the Kremlin has left. They should know by now the West and the world cannot succumb to nuclear blackmail. It is especially important that North Korea and Iran get this message. We will not tolerate this from an established nuclear power where mutually assured destruction is a possibility and we surely will not tolerate it from an upstart who's own destruction is the only assurance.
What would China and India think of a tactical nuclear strike by Russia on Ukraine? I'm not sure about China but India must already be thinking about where they will be getting their military hardware from. Their usual supplier, Russia is going to be hard pressed to fill orders going forward.
The Kremlin desires to make parts of Ukraine a permanent part of the Russian Federation. Well you better hurry up. A Ukrainian counterattack/offensive is sweeping down from Kharkiv toward Izyum. They need to cut the supply lines between Izyum and Belgorod. It would appear Russia is doing little to stop it. They continue to regroup and consolidate. All indications are they are tapped out as far as ground forces go and the ones that are there have no desire to fight, commanders and commanded alike. Further, about a third of the tanks, vehicles and artillery Russia has lost during the war hasn't been destroyed but has been abandoned or captured. So aside from the commitment from the West to continue to supply Ukraine with the tools it needs to take back their country, Ukrainian forces can attack Russian forces with their own weapons. No training required.
Meanwhile, Putin would be loathe to call this anything other than a "special military operation" as that would give him even less wiggle room in calling a defeat anything other than a defeat. So, hurry up and call parts of Ukraine liberated and now part of the Russian Federation. Then call any further offensive actions by Ukraine an attack on the same. So this is Part 1 of Plan C.
Ukraine doesn't care what Russia calls it. Ukraine does not have to play by Russia's rules. Russia has made little progress in the East or South lately. The tide is turning. It appears Russia has little left to fight with. They can take no ground so they have thrown what they do have left at Odesa in their last pitiful attempt to appear to be making advances.
The only way Ukraine can fail is if we fail Ukraine.
What would China and India think of a tactical nuclear strike by Russia on Ukraine? I'm not sure about China but India must already be thinking about where they will be getting their military hardware from. Their usual supplier, Russia is going to be hard pressed to fill orders going forward.
The Kremlin desires to make parts of Ukraine a permanent part of the Russian Federation. Well you better hurry up. A Ukrainian counterattack/offensive is sweeping down from Kharkiv toward Izyum. They need to cut the supply lines between Izyum and Belgorod. It would appear Russia is doing little to stop it. They continue to regroup and consolidate. All indications are they are tapped out as far as ground forces go and the ones that are there have no desire to fight, commanders and commanded alike. Further, about a third of the tanks, vehicles and artillery Russia has lost during the war hasn't been destroyed but has been abandoned or captured. So aside from the commitment from the West to continue to supply Ukraine with the tools it needs to take back their country, Ukrainian forces can attack Russian forces with their own weapons. No training required.
Meanwhile, Putin would be loathe to call this anything other than a "special military operation" as that would give him even less wiggle room in calling a defeat anything other than a defeat. So, hurry up and call parts of Ukraine liberated and now part of the Russian Federation. Then call any further offensive actions by Ukraine an attack on the same. So this is Part 1 of Plan C.
Ukraine doesn't care what Russia calls it. Ukraine does not have to play by Russia's rules. Russia has made little progress in the East or South lately. The tide is turning. It appears Russia has little left to fight with. They can take no ground so they have thrown what they do have left at Odesa in their last pitiful attempt to appear to be making advances.
The only way Ukraine can fail is if we fail Ukraine.
steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
It is not just Ukraine. Putin has said many tims his goal is to retore the old Soviet bloc and all its imagined glory.
At fer invading Ukraine he demanded all former Soviet client states who joined NATO to leave it.
To me he is looking like a brutal murderous mad Roman emporer of the past.
At fer invading Ukraine he demanded all former Soviet client states who joined NATO to leave it.
To me he is looking like a brutal murderous mad Roman emporer of the past.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Ukraine appears to have broken the siege of Kharkiv for now, and Russian forces are in retreat to regroup. Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO is now showing cracks.
Also, Mitch McConnell has shown up with a small flock of Republicans in Kyiv to show their support and repair their image as somewhat opposed to helping Ukraine.
Russian forces withdraw far from Kharkiv – mayor
Also, Mitch McConnell has shown up with a small flock of Republicans in Kyiv to show their support and repair their image as somewhat opposed to helping Ukraine.
McConnell, GOP senators meet Zelenskyy in surprise Kyiv stop
pood
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So, let’s see.
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and made a lightning strike toward Kyiv intending to overrun it in a couple of days. Instead they got their ass handed to them and had to withdraw after committing a bunch of atrocities.
Now the same thing has happened in Kharkiv.
They have not been able to take a single major city. They have suffered enormous losses of men and materiel. More Russian soldiers have been killed in this debacle than the Soviets lost in eight years in Afghanistan.
The Ukrainians sank their flagship cruiser Moskva. Russia is running out of missiles. Most of the world has sanctioned their economy, which is buckling under the weight. Many Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Some of them frag their superiors. Nine or ten top Russian generals have been killed. And on and on and on.
What say comrade Barbos about Mad Vlad’s “special military operation”?
“Everything is going according to plan!”
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and made a lightning strike toward Kyiv intending to overrun it in a couple of days. Instead they got their ass handed to them and had to withdraw after committing a bunch of atrocities.
Now the same thing has happened in Kharkiv.
They have not been able to take a single major city. They have suffered enormous losses of men and materiel. More Russian soldiers have been killed in this debacle than the Soviets lost in eight years in Afghanistan.
The Ukrainians sank their flagship cruiser Moskva. Russia is running out of missiles. Most of the world has sanctioned their economy, which is buckling under the weight. Many Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Some of them frag their superiors. Nine or ten top Russian generals have been killed. And on and on and on.
What say comrade Barbos about Mad Vlad’s “special military operation”?
“Everything is going according to plan!”
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Ukraine is a magic land. Where Russian tanks are turned into lollipops!
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
So, let’s see.
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and made a lightning strike toward Kyiv intending to overrun it in a couple of days. Instead they got their ass handed to them and had to withdraw after committing a bunch of atrocities.
Now the same thing has happened in Kharkiv.
They have not been able to take a single major city. They have suffered enormous losses of men and materiel. More Russian soldiers have been killed in this debacle than the Soviets lost in eight years in Afghanistan.
The Ukrainians sank their flagship cruiser Moskva. Russia is running out of missiles. Most of the world has sanctioned their economy, which is buckling under the weight. Many Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Some of them frag their superiors. Nine or ten top Russian generals have been killed. And on and on and on.
What say comrade Barbos about Mad Vlad’s “special military operation”?
“Everything is going according to plan!”
What can he say other than to simply repeat the news and rumors that he reads on his news sites? I'm not surprise that he has stayed away so much. After bragging about how Russia would quickly conquer and "denazify" most of Ukraine, he has had to backtrack, admit some failures, and find ways to explain away the largescale attacks on civilian targets, not to mention the reports of horrific atrocities in territories left by retreating Russian troops.
I don't see barbos as an effective apologist for Russian failures, but westerners still have full access to what the Russian media say. Google translate actually does a pretty good job on Russian. I like to read both the English versions and Russian versions on some other their most popular new sites. RT is really tailor-made for foreign consumption, but there is also a Russian version. I found the following interesting RT piece on how they want to interpret popular attitudes in the West about the war. It is extremely deceptive, to say the least. What is interesting is that I searched for and could not find an equivalent story in the Russian version, although it was prominently featured in the English version. The likely reason is that the English version is designed to provide talking points for those in the West who might be more inclined to support Russia's side of the war.
RT:
What does the West really think about the Ukrainian conflict?
As a Russian who knows English and has access to at least some Western news media, barbos can see that the RT version is really disingenuous, but I doubt that he would want to try to address such issues. I suspect that he mostly just lurks here these days and occasionally comes out to take pokes at Ukraine, the West, and occasional news stories.
steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
If there is any truth to the reporting the Russian army is more like a brutal plundering mob killing and stealing. Perhaps it is a refection of Russian education or the lack of it.
I wonder what te education is of the averageyiung Russian soldier.
I wonder what te education is of the averageyiung Russian soldier.
Ukraine has driven Russia back in many places. A single Russian success doesn't mean they win the war.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
And I posted their winning performance here. This song is about a mother, but it has taken on national significance in the war effort. Only one band member did not attend Eurovision for this, because he decided to join the military instead. The others had to get special permission to leave the country to do the performance, because men of military age are not allowed to leave.
