How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

The Senate recently passed HR 6968, banning the importation of "energy products" from Russia, and HR 7108, suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus.

Both bills passed unanimously, with all Senators voting for both of them.

H.R.6968 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Suspending Energy Imports from Russia Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

H.R.7108 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

House Vote on HR 6968 and House Vote on HR 7108

Nearly every Representative voted for both bills. The exceptions:

HR 6968 (energy): D 2, R 15 (absent: R 2)
HR 7108 (trade): R 8 (absent: R 1)

All those who voted against the second bill also voted against the first bill: Republicans Biggs AZ, Bishop NC, Boebert CO, Gaetz FL, Greene GA, Grothman WI, Massie KY, Roy TX, and no Democrats

The additional ones who voted against the first bill: Republicans Cawthorn NC, DesJarlais TN, Gohmert TX, Gosar AZ, Higgins LA, Posey FL, Tiffany TX, and Democrats Cori Bush MO, Ilhan Omar MN

 

[lpetrich]

Oops, not again.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine War: Kremlin spokesman Peskov admits 'significant' Russian losses - BBC News

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told British channel Sky News the casualties were "a huge tragedy for us".

He said he hoped Moscow would reach its war goals "in the coming days".

...
Mr Peskov denied any suggestion that Russian troops were responsible for executions in the town of Bucha and told the broadcaster that "we're living in days of fakes and lies". He baselessly claimed that images of civilians murdered in the town were staged.

Donbas: Why Russia is trying to encircle Ukraine's east - BBC News
The Russians have conquered Izyum, and they are likely to try to conquer Slovyansk, about 1/3 of the way to Donetsk. If they succeed, that will enable them to encircle the parts of Ukraine's army in the easternmost parts, enabling them to get all of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

[steve_bank]

In the news a new Ukranian baby boy and girl were named Javelin and Javelina after the nbti tank weapon.

 

[Copernicus]

Pink Floyd has reunited to produce a version of Andriy Khlyvnyuk's patriotic Ukrainian song. Khlyvnyuk is the lead singer of the Ukrainian hit band Boombox, and he was on tour in the US when the war broke out. He ended the tour to return to Ukraine and join the army. Shortly afterwards, he released a version of this song that went viral.

 

[ZiprHead]

Maybe they should send Roger Waters' ego over there. It's so huge it would defeat Russia in one night.

 

[ZiprHead]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

 

[bleubird]

More Russian asset stuff.

 

[Jayjay]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

 

[crazyfingers]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

How accurate do u think this story is?

Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, prompted by Russian war in Ukraine

Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, moves that would likely infuriate Moscow and that officials say would further underscore Russia's strategic error in invading Ukraine.

www.cnn.com

 

[lpetrich]

I checked NATO's site, and I found no mention of that. I did find NATO - Pressrelease: Visit to NATO by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, 08-Apr.-2022

I've found NATO (@NATO) / Twitter and Oana Lungescu (@NATOpress) / Twitter "NATO Press"

I looked through those feeds, and I found no mention of this willingness to join. But I did find mention of cooperation with Sweden, Finland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Eurasian Georgia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

But I've found articles like If Finland and Sweden apply to join NATO, they would be welcomed, Stoltenberg says | Reuters

"It's for them to decide of course but if they apply, I expect that 30 allies will welcome them," Stoltenberg told a news conference.

He said NATO would likely find ways "to address the concerns they may have about this interim period between having applied and until the last ratification (by allies) has taken place", referring to possible Russian retaliation before the pair were fully under NATO protection.

Why Putin faces 'more NATO' in the Arctic after Ukraine invasion | Reuters - Apr 4

Finland has a 1,300 km (810 mile) border with Russia. In a March 28 phone call, the country's President Sauli Niinisto asked NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for details on principles and steps for accepting new members, he wrote on Facebook. Finland's leaders have discussed possible membership with "almost all" NATO's 30 members, and will submit a review to parliament by mid-April, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told Reuters.

Sweden – home of the founder of the Nobel Peace Prize and a country which has not fought in a war since 1814 – is more hesitant. But a recent opinion poll for a major Swedish TV station found 59% of Swedes wanted to join NATO, if Finland does.

I decided to measure the lengths of the borders with Russia and Belarus. I used Google Maps, and I used simple straight lines instead of the fully detailed boundaries. Thus, I found 1,000 km instead of 1,300 km for Finland - Russia.

• Norway - Russia - 100 km
• Finland - Russia - 1.000 km
• Estonia - Russia - 200 km
• Latvia - Russia - 200 km
• Latvia - Belarus - 100 km
• Lithuania - Belarus - 300 km
• Poland - Belarus - 300 km
• Poland - Ukraine - 300 km
• Slovakia - Ukraine - 100 km
• Hungary - Ukraine - 100 km
• Romania - Ukraine - N 300 km, E 100 km
• Romania - Moldova - 300 km
• Moldova - Ukraine - 500 km
• Ukraine - Belarus - 600 km
• Ukraine - Russia - 1,100 km
• Belarus - Russia - 700 km
• Georgia - Russia - 600 km

NATO - Russia, Belarus

• Present - 500 km, 700 km
• With Finland - 1,500 km, 700 km
• With Finland, Georgia - 2,100 km, 700 km
• With Finland, Georgia, Ukraine - 3,200 km, 1,300 km

If Belarus breaks with Russia and joins NATO along with Finland, Ukraine, Georgia, the Russia-NATO border length becomes 3,900 km.

I imagine Vladinir Putin pounding his fists on he desk and shouting "No! No! No! No! No! Four thousand kilometers of NATO!!!"

 

[Jayjay]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

How accurate do u think this story is?

Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, prompted by Russian war in Ukraine

Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, moves that would likely infuriate Moscow and that officials say would further underscore Russia's strategic error in invading Ukraine.

www.cnn.com

It's accurate.

I've said in this very thread, that there's no chance that Finland and Sweden will ever join NATO. But I think I need to swallow my pride and admit that at least for Finland, the odds of NATO membership have shifted dramatically. The public opinion is very pro-NATO, and there is a broad consensus among all political parties that it's happening. For Finland, I don't think it's a matter of if, but when. Only thing that could stop it is if NATO itself doesn't want Finland to join (which could happen, because it requires unanimity among all current members, some of which may be politically influenced by Russia) or if there is a direct military intervention by Russia.

Sweden is less likely. It has stayed out of wars and alliances for over 200 years now and there is historical reasons why Sweden might continue on that path. My understanding is that the current leading party, the Social Democrats, is squeamish about it. The Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said last month that it would destabilize Europe if Sweden were to join. However, the right-wing opposition parties in Sweden support NATO membership, and it might become an issue for the next elections. if Finland joins, the pressure for Sweden to do the same may increase. The public opinion in Sweden is also currently pro-NATO, though not as much as in Finland.

I checked NATO's site, and I found no mention of that. I did find NATO - Pressrelease: Visit to NATO by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, 08-Apr.-2022

I've found NATO (@NATO) / Twitter and Oana Lungescu (@NATOpress) / Twitter "NATO Press"

I looked through those feeds, and I found no mention of this willingness to join. But I did find mention of cooperation with Sweden, Finland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Eurasian Georgia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

Well officially of course nothing will move until it does. But I'm sure that behind the scenes, Finland and Sweden are having discussions not just with NATO leadership, but all member states to ensure that if they apply, the application will not be vetoed by anyone, and to make sure that there are security guarantees for the contingency of a Russian attack during the application process.

Both Finland and Sweden have islands in the Baltic Sea that Russia could in theory invade to create a frozen conflict that would block either country's NATO applications.

 

[Copernicus]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

I've also seen this reported in the news--that Russian troops may be using the slogan because they believe the propaganda that the Ukrainian side deliberately targets civilians. However, the people who deliberately directed that missile strike on a train station full of civilians had to be fully aware whose children their missile was intended for. They know exactly what they are doing and how the propaganda machine in Russia is used to spin tall tales about Ukraine concocting fake videos of the results of their work. I don't imagine that it remains a big secret among frontline troops in the invasion force.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

How does attacking another country help the future of a country's children? If true, that makes no sense. So they want help their children, by attacking another country's children? If the Russians are so fucking gullible, they deserve the miserable future that they are creating for themselves.

 

[Jayjay]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

I've also seen this reported in the news--that Russian troops may be using the slogan because they believe the propaganda that the Ukrainian side deliberately targets civilians. However, the people who deliberately directed that missile strike on a train station full of civilians had to be fully aware whose children their missile was intended for. They know exactly what they are doing and how the propaganda machine in Russia is used to spin tall tales about Ukraine concocting fake videos of the results of their work. I don't imagine that it remains a big secret among frontline troops in the invasion force.

I think you're overthinking it.

The guy who painted the message to the missile might not have had a clue when or where it was going to be fired. Nor would he have any reason to think that the missile would be a dud and anybody on Ukrainian side would see the message. It's just a morale booster on their side.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

I've also seen this reported in the news--that Russian troops may be using the slogan because they believe the propaganda that the Ukrainian side deliberately targets civilians. However, the people who deliberately directed that missile strike on a train station full of civilians had to be fully aware whose children their missile was intended for. They know exactly what they are doing and how the propaganda machine in Russia is used to spin tall tales about Ukraine concocting fake videos of the results of their work. I don't imagine that it remains a big secret among frontline troops in the invasion force.

I think you're overthinking it.

The guy who painted the message to the missile might not have had a clue when or where it was going to be fired. Nor would he have any reason to think that the missile would be a dud and anybody on Ukrainian side would see the message. It's just a morale booster on their side.

I know that you probably can't answer this. But it boggles my mind that some idiot might think that killing a child from another country might make his child more safe in the future.

 

[bilby]

I heard this afternoon that one of the bomb fragments from the shells that fell on the train station killing and wounding a great many civilians had "For the children" written on it in Russian.

Sick fuckers.

In this case I think the meaning was that the Russian soldiers are fighting for the future of their children. Not that the missile was literally intended to target children in the train station. My understanding is that it's a popular Russian rallying cry.

I've also seen this reported in the news--that Russian troops may be using the slogan because they believe the propaganda that the Ukrainian side deliberately targets civilians. However, the people who deliberately directed that missile strike on a train station full of civilians had to be fully aware whose children their missile was intended for. They know exactly what they are doing and how the propaganda machine in Russia is used to spin tall tales about Ukraine concocting fake videos of the results of their work. I don't imagine that it remains a big secret among frontline troops in the invasion force.

I think you're overthinking it.

The guy who painted the message to the missile might not have had a clue when or where it was going to be fired. Nor would he have any reason to think that the missile would be a dud and anybody on Ukrainian side would see the message. It's just a morale booster on their side.

I know that you probably can't answer this. But it boggles my mind that some idiot might think that killing a child from another country might make his child more safe in the future.

Welcome to the entire history of warfare.

 

[Jayjay]

An article in Foreign Policy Magazine hits the nail on the head:

Russia’s Ukraine Propaganda Has Turned Fully Genocidal

Egged on by the language of annihilation and extermination, Russian soldiers have become willing executioners.

foreignpolicy.com

Since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Ukraine’s eastern regions, television rhetoric has followed Putin’s cues and been extremely derogatory toward Ukraine and its leadership—but not so much ordinary Ukrainians as a people.

That has dramatically changed. Since the failure of Putin’s apparent plan to rush into Kyiv, decapitate the Ukrainian government, and install a puppet regime became evident—and it became clear to him that ordinary Ukrainians weren’t waiting to be liberated by Russia—the language on Ukraine and Ukrainians has turned much more radical and toxic.

(...)

When Ukrainians fought back ferociously, stood fully behind their allegedly evil leadership, and showed no desire to be so-called liberated by Russia, the Kremlin’s propaganda switched gears—and went into full genocidal mode.

On March 26, as the Russians were being pushed back around Kyiv but still controlled Bucha, Ukraine, and its other northern suburbs, RT editor in chief Margarita Simonyan said on another pro-Kremlin channel that to her “horror,” a “significant part of the Ukrainian nation was in the grip of the Nazi frenzy.” It was a marked departure from the earlier trope of a captive nation with a few Nazi apples at the top. Dmitry Medvedev, once Russia’s liberal president and now the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, rages about Ukraine on his Telegram channel, calling it a “completely fake” nation and “a copy of the Third Reich” that doesn’t deserve to exist.

Kemlin-owned and controlled media—the only media still permitted to work—broadcast these messages to millions upon millions of Russians. On Rossia-1’s flagship talk show, host Vladimir Solovyov said, “Vladimir Zelensky is Ukraine’s last president because there won’t be any Ukraine after that.” The audience cheered.

A more recent RIA Novosti op-ed by Timofey Sergeytsev describes the planned extermination of an entire nation in a matter-of-fact manner. He not only describes “Ukronazism” as a more dangerous global threat than Hitler but casts much of the Ukrainian nation as accomplices and legitimate targets of terror. “A significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive Nazis, are accomplices to Nazism,” he writes. Ukraine’s elites “must be liquidated as they cannot be reeducated and the social swamp that backed them must be subject to the terror of war and made to pay for their crimes.” After the war, Ukraine should be carved into Russian-controlled statelets, their people and culture Russified, and the name “Ukraine” erased from the map. In short, “denazification” of Ukraine has come to mean nothing short of annihilation.

I've been thinking that the propaganda in Russia has made it a powder keg that can easily be exploited by Putin to justify any escalation.

In 1999, a terrorist strike allegedly by Chechen islamist militants in Moscow, Dagestan and Rostov killed 300 people. This was part of the casus belli for Putin to justify the second Chechen war and bombing Grozny. There is a theory that this could have been a false flag operation by the FSB. But even if it wasn't, it was certainly very convenient for Putin.

Would he do it again, if things bog down and he needs to escalate the Ukraine war? For example, to justify use of nuclear weapons, or (more likely) the mobilization of reservists and martial law. The seeds are already planted, with the Russian media having harped on about Ukrainian "nazis" and Azov battalion in particular for the past 8 years. It would be easy to plant evidence with Nazi paraphernalia and spin a yarn about Ukrainian government sending terrorist infiltrators to Russia to revenge their failure in Donbas. Russian people would eat it up like it was candy. After that Putin could easily do pretty much anything, including sending reservists or conscripts to Ukraine, which he has previously said that he won't do.

A perfect timing for this would be some time before the victory day parade on May 9th, if Russia can't get any other wins by then.

Is this possible or have I just stumbled into conspiracy theorist territory? We'll find out in about a month.

 

[Rhea]

Russia’s Ukraine Propaganda Has Turned Fully Genocidal

Egged on by the language of annihilation and extermination, Russian soldiers have become willing executioners.

foreignpolicy.com

When Ukrainians fought back ferociously, stood fully behind their allegedly evil leadership, and showed no desire to be so-called liberated by Russia, the Kremlin’s propaganda switched gears—and went into full genocidal mode.

On March 26, as the Russians were being pushed back around Kyiv but still controlled Bucha, Ukraine, and its other northern suburbs, RT editor in chief Margarita Simonyan said on another pro-Kremlin channel that to her “horror,” a “significant part of the Ukrainian nation was in the grip of the Nazi frenzy.” It was a marked departure from the earlier trope of a captive nation with a few Nazi apples at the top. Dmitry Medvedev, once Russia’s liberal president and now the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, rages about Ukraine on his Telegram channel, calling it a “completely fake” nation and “a copy of the Third Reich” that doesn’t deserve to exist.

After the war, Ukraine should be carved into Russian-controlled statelets, their people and culture Russified, and the name “Ukraine” erased from the map. In short, “denazification” of Ukraine has come to mean nothing short of annihilation.

This should appall every reader.

 

[steve_bank]

If Nazi indoctrination of children had gone on longer there would have been a near complete control. Post war I believe some German Nazis under a certain age were given a pass because they would have known no alternative other than propaganda.

We are seeing another genocidal leader with global fantasies of glory with our own eyes. Tojo, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, Stalin.

I watched a Nazi animation that would have been shown int movie theaters. Jews as dark rat vermin running through a city.

On the way to Berlin the Russians were brutal. Rape and plunder.

My impression of Putin, a rabid dog foaming at the mouth.