How would a War with Iran Turn Out

[SLD]

I’m curious what people think a war between the US and Iran be like, how would it be conducted, what would the various strategies and counter strategies be like, how long, and likely outcomes. Obviously it varies and the US and Iran could pick a variety of responses. Most commentators have indicated it would be much like Iraq or Libya. It would be chaotic and really fuck things up in the Mideast. Some though see it becoming a limited engagement with Iran quickly backing down to prevent a catastrophic loss. Some, like Bolton perhaps, see it as being a quick victory with limited casualties and regime change to the US's benefit.

I’m hardly an expert on Iran, but I think most assumptions based on Iraq are flawed. Iran doesn’t suffer from the same Sunni and Shia divisions that Iraq does. It’s more of a nation state than Syria or Iraq, whose borders were drawn by European imperialists a century ago. It’s not as tribal as other places. So in part I’m skeptical that the end result will be a similar bloodletting between tribal factions as Iraq, Syria and Libya have turned out.

But that doesn’t mean that Bolton is right and the regime will collapse due to overwhelming US military might. Iran has significant military capabilities and anti air capabilities especially. Nor does their appear to be any groundswell of regime opposition in Iran, despite grumbling. Maybe that impacts military planning and the US just hits a few targets and calls it a day. I’m skeptical of that scenario. But a full fledged invasion by Army forces seems unlikely either. Or could such an escalation even be avoided?

Costs are a whole other matter.

SLD

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

War with Iran isn't about borders on a map. It is about a war against the Iranians. Iranians, while not radical like their leadership... they have this historical distaste for the United States. Yes, we are much much much stronger than Iran (same was true with Vietnam), but there is a difference between being stronger and being able to occupy and replace the government with someone both you like and the people like. And who would we even want to run Iran?!

The Iranians aren't waiting for the US to save them. And they won't greet us with flowers. The Iranians won't die for their leadership, but they'll die to protect an invasion from the West.

So that leaves us with simple options like bombing facilities or using computers to commit concentrated and acute acts of espionage. Kind of like what Obama did... and was vilified for by the right-wing for announcing it... despite whining he wasn't doing enough against Iran.

 

[repoman]

The Sunni/Shia split will play a big part in it.

Also, will not be a standard WWII type war with large invasion force. Probably will just want to turn Iran into a basket case and try to get a US/Saudi/Israeli favorable government puppet regime installed.

 

[SLD]

The Sunni/Shia split will play a big part in it.

Also, will not be a standard WWII type war with large invasion force. Probably will just want to turn Iran into a basket case and try to get a US/Saudi/Israeli favorable government puppet regime installed.

Iran is 90% Shia. Kurdish minorities and some tribes near Pakistan border are Sunni, but they don’t have the ability to challenge the regime. I don’t see a Sunni Shia infighting as we saw in Iraq or Syria.

SLD

 

[SLD]

War with Iran isn't about borders on a map. It is about a war against the Iranians. Iranians, while not radical like their leadership... they have this historical distaste for the United States. Yes, we are much much much stronger than Iran (same was true with Vietnam), but there is a difference between being stronger and being able to occupy and replace the government with someone both you like and the people like. And who would we even want to run Iran?!

The Iranians aren't waiting for the US to save them. And they won't greet us with flowers. The Iranians won't die for their leadership, but they'll die to protect an invasion from the West.

So that leaves us with simple options like bombing facilities or using computers to commit concentrated and acute acts of espionage. Kind of like what Obama did... and was vilified for by the right-wing for announcing it... despite whining he wasn't doing enough against Iran.

From my discussions with some expats wh've been there, anti-Americanism isn’t particularly strong, at least in Tehran. Obviously they are pro Iran and will rally to the colors, but they don’t hate America like the government seems to regularly proclaim.

But if we just bomb a few facilities and wait to see what happens, how do they respond? It seems to me that they would use considerable power to shut down the straits of Hormuz to drive up gas prices. At a minimum they could significantly impact oil prices and hurt the US economy. And then we’d have to respond to keep the straits open. Then what?

 

[repoman]

The Sunni/Shia split will play a big part in it.

Also, will not be a standard WWII type war with large invasion force. Probably will just want to turn Iran into a basket case and try to get a US/Saudi/Israeli favorable government puppet regime installed.

Iran is 90% Shia. Kurdish minorities and some tribes near Pakistan border are Sunni, but they don’t have the ability to challenge the regime. I don’t see a Sunni Shia infighting as we saw in Iraq or Syria.

SLD

I mean in Iran responding through proxies in Saudi Arabia and Yemen and other places and even Shias responding on their own.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

War with Iran isn't about borders on a map. It is about a war against the Iranians. Iranians, while not radical like their leadership... they have this historical distaste for the United States. Yes, we are much much much stronger than Iran (same was true with Vietnam), but there is a difference between being stronger and being able to occupy and replace the government with someone both you like and the people like. And who would we even want to run Iran?!

The Iranians aren't waiting for the US to save them. And they won't greet us with flowers. The Iranians won't die for their leadership, but they'll die to protect an invasion from the West.

So that leaves us with simple options like bombing facilities or using computers to commit concentrated and acute acts of espionage. Kind of like what Obama did... and was vilified for by the right-wing for announcing it... despite whining he wasn't doing enough against Iran.

From my discussions with some expats wh've been there, anti-Americanism isn’t particularly strong, at least in Tehran. Obviously they are pro Iran and will rally to the colors, but they don’t hate America like the government seems to regularly proclaim.

But if we just bomb a few facilities and wait to see what happens, how do they respond? It seems to me that they would use considerable power to shut down the straits of Hormuz to drive up gas prices. At a minimum they could significantly impact oil prices and hurt the US economy. And then we’d have to respond to keep the straits open. Then what?

Well, it doesn't take MUCH to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. If the US bombs the shit out of Iran, but a guys with trucks keep popping up and shooting at tankers with rocket launchers (which isn't really a thing that can be shut down), how many tankers are going to be going through the Straits? I'm also sure that the Iranian army has a fail safe plan in place to use their remaining military forces to decimate oil production facilities throughout the region in the event that the US military goes all out in destroying it, so there wouldn't be much to ship down there anyways.

There is no way to start this war without crippling the oil trade and sending prices sky rocketing. That means any actual invasion would need to wait until the end of the summer driving season.

 

[Horatio Parker]

The Iraq war showed that invasions on the cheap don't work. Iran would take more of an effort than almost anybody in the US wants to make.

 

[SLD]

The Iraq war showed that invasions on the cheap don't work. Iran would take more of an effort than almost anybody in the US wants to make.

I’m not sure Americans realize that at all. Iraq and Afghanistan hardly affected them. Very few served there.

SLD

 

[Horatio Parker]

The Iraq war showed that invasions on the cheap don't work. Iran would take more of an effort than almost anybody in the US wants to make.

I’m not sure Americans realize that at all. Iraq and Afghanistan hardly affected them. Very few served there.

SLD

True, but when memories of Shinseki and Rumsfeld get trotted out, they'll remember. There are only ten active army divisions, far less than needed to occupy Iran. Not to mention how will that blowback in the years ahead. They should've left Iran alone back in the '50's.

 

[funinspace]

War with Iran isn't about borders on a map. It is about a war against the Iranians. Iranians, while not radical like their leadership... they have this historical distaste for the United States. Yes, we are much much much stronger than Iran (same was true with Vietnam), but there is a difference between being stronger and being able to occupy and replace the government with someone both you like and the people like. And who would we even want to run Iran?!

The Iranians aren't waiting for the US to save them. And they won't greet us with flowers. The Iranians won't die for their leadership, but they'll die to protect an invasion from the West.

So that leaves us with simple options like bombing facilities or using computers to commit concentrated and acute acts of espionage. Kind of like what Obama did... and was vilified for by the right-wing for announcing it... despite whining he wasn't doing enough against Iran.

From my discussions with some expats wh've been there, anti-Americanism isn’t particularly strong, at least in Tehran. Obviously they are pro Iran and will rally to the colors, but they don’t hate America like the government seems to regularly proclaim.

But if we just bomb a few facilities and wait to see what happens, how do they respond?

This is probably most likely US go to move.

It seems to me that they would use considerable power to shut down the straits of Hormuz to drive up gas prices. At a minimum they could significantly impact oil prices and hurt the US economy. And then we’d have to respond to keep the straits open. Then what?

And this is the big danger with FFvC threatening obliteration. If we try a limited strike, what is to stop Iran from panicking, thinking "this is IT!", time to go balls to the wall.

Iran also has over twice the population of Iraq, and we amassed about 170k soldiers and spent months preparing for an invasion. Libya was an unpopular tinpot dictatorship, largely on a easy coast line for bombing. It could get real ugly depending on how prepared they are for asymmetrical warfare...

 

[J842P]

The Sunni/Shia split will play a big part in it.

How?

 

[Gun Nut]

From my discussions with some expats wh've been there, anti-Americanism isn’t particularly strong, at least in Tehran. Obviously they are pro Iran and will rally to the colors, but they don’t hate America like the government seems to regularly proclaim.

I have a friend that is from Iran... he showed me pictures of his family over there that were taken in the 70's.
Young girls wearing short sleeve dresses that did not go far below the knee.. young men wearing US sportswear.. trying to look "cool, like a Western kid".
Iran embraced the West like most other countries... their culture absorbing the best of the best... reminded me of my time in Sicily in the late 70's.... all the other kids wanted to be just like me, the visiting American... wanted to know everything about what I did for fun...etc..
The West was beaten out of them with regime change... hyper-state-religion ruined their evolving culture.
girls don;t go around in short dresses anymore... people can be killed for listening to Western music.
They still try to take advantage of some of the culture they don't want to let go of.

No, the people don't hate America. Some may be a bit jelly... but it is the government that hates the West, not their culture.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

"War with Iran" will never happen. For one thing the country is allied with Russia so there can be never be victory. It will never go down like Iraq or Libya.

It is a situation that will constantly simmer like Korea and Israel with flareups of fighting and loss of life. But there will never be American boots on the ground in Iran conducting operations such as was the case in Iraq.

I can imagine Trumpo's crazies doing something provocative enough to destabilize the present situation, however, but not enough to bring on another Iraq.

 

[SLD]

"War with Iran" will never happen. For one thing the country is allied with Russia so there can be never be victory. It will never go down like Iraq or Libya.

It is a situation that will constantly simmer like Korea and Israel with flareups of fighting and loss of life. But there will never be American boots on the ground in Iran conducting operations such as was the case in Iraq.

I can imagine Trumpo's crazies doing something provocative enough to destabilize the present situation, however, but not enough to bring on another Iraq.

No. There’s no formal defense treaty between Russia and Iran. A war with Iran will not automatically draw in Russia. Russia will likely supply them. But not come to their defense.

I don’t think tRump wants war. He belongs to the isolationist wing of the Republicans. But I don’t think he’s in control of the White House. He’s just playing President and letting his subordinates do whatever. Like Bolton. And Bolton wants a war. He will do whatever it takes to maneuver Iran into some kind of provocation. Then present tRump with no other option. But sometimes tRump may not take the bait. Russia may not be allied with Iran, but they own FFVC.

SLD

 

[Patooka]

How would a War with Iran Turn Out

The US would be welcomed as liberators with open arms*


*the aforementioned arms will have safeties off.

 

[Ford]

As others have said, Iran is not Iraq. The country is larger, with a much more diverse terrain, a helluva lot more people, and is far more homogeneous.

It is also nothing like Iraq in 2003. Iraq's military had been gutted in the first Gulf War, and they'd been living under no-fly zones for over a decade. Air superiority is quite an advantage, and we had it going in.

Iran's air defenses are much more robust than 2003 Iraq. The US would eventually establish air superiority, but it would come at a greater cost. A ground war? Again, in Iraq we had an already defeated and demoralized Iraqi army. I'm gonna take a wild guess here and say that Iran's Revolutionary Guard will not give up so easily. They're sure as hell not going to go toe to toe with the US. No, they're going to retreat into the mountains and conduct guerilla warfare.

There's this other country nearby where the US has been largely unable to displace a bunch of guerilla fighters who retreated into their own mountain territory. Something-stan, if I recall. Imagine that scenario, but instead of villagers with AK-47s or disaffected militias, the fighters are army regulars with a cohesive command and control structure.

Granted, the traditional military - air, land, and sea - will eventually fall to the US. That's a given. The regime itself might pack up and leave...going into exile. Then the US will be left with an occupation situation that will make Iraq look like a walk in the park. It might even make Afghanistan look easy.

Others have already mentioned the reason. The US was able to make headway in Iraq and to a lesser extent Afghanistan because "divide and conquer" is easier in a country that's inherently divided. We could make temporary alliances or pay off warlords and have it work because the people of those countries ally themselves with tribes first, religion second, and country last. Iraq is a made up country. Afghan isn't even really a nationality. Iran? Let's just call it Persia, because that's what it is. There's a cultural identity that goes very deep, and while the people might not be loyal to the "Islamic Republic of Iran," they'll happily fuck up anyone who tries to invade their country.

 

[repoman]

They need to have a lot of mixed race, mixed culture and mixed religious households for a few generations and that cultural identity will fade away, Inshallah. Get cracking on the subversion.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well, it doesn't take MUCH to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. If the US bombs the shit out of Iran, but a guys with trucks keep popping up and shooting at tankers with rocket launchers (which isn't really a thing that can be shut down), how many tankers are going to be going through the Straits? I'm also sure that the Iranian army has a fail safe plan in place to use their remaining military forces to decimate oil production facilities throughout the region in the event that the US military goes all out in destroying it, so there wouldn't be much to ship down there anyways.

There is no way to start this war without crippling the oil trade and sending prices sky rocketing. That means any actual invasion would need to wait until the end of the summer driving season.

Which is probably why His Flatulence didn't order the strike to go in.

Personally, I think invasion is not a good idea. If we are going to do anything it should be to break enough military and perhaps economic stuff to make Iran think twice about engaging in such tactics again. Perhaps Tomahawks aimed at the leadership, also--make them personally afraid of doing it again.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Personally, I think invasion is not a good idea. If we are going to do anything it should be to break enough military and perhaps economic stuff to make Iran think twice about engaging in such tactics again. Perhaps Tomahawks aimed at the leadership, also--make them personally afraid of doing it again.

Ya, that sounds like it would work well. Mission Accomplished in one day.