Humans Need Not Apply

[NobleSavage]

The only solution I see is universal basic income...

 

[Blahface]

I'm not sure how a universal basic income would be feasible unless there was a broad tax agreement among nations. The only way I see it being affordable is to jack taxes up so high that it would cause corporations and wealthy individuals to flee the country. It is a shame because automation does seem like a legitimate problem.

 

[Jayjay]

I'm not sure how a universal basic income would be feasible unless there was a broad tax agreement among nations. The only way I see it being affordable is to jack taxes up so high that it would cause corporations and wealthy individuals to flee the country. It is a shame because automation does seem like a legitimate problem.

You don't jack up the taxes only for the wealthy, but also for the middle class and even the poor - they make less money but there's more of them, and they are less likely to flee the country.

 

[EricK]

I'm not sure how a universal basic income would be feasible unless there was a broad tax agreement among nations. The only way I see it being affordable is to jack taxes up so high that it would cause corporations and wealthy individuals to flee the country. It is a shame because automation does seem like a legitimate problem.

To provide a universal basic income today would be expensive, because most jobs are done by expensive people, and so products are expensive. When automation replaces all these people, the cost of the products will be much lower, so a much lower universal income would be required.

 

[Canard DuJour]

The only solution I see is universal basic income...

..and/or to share the remaining work. But, as it is, that'd need a lot of gov't intervention like working hours caps and way stricter overtime rules. And it'd need to be international. So it ain't gonna happen.

Good video btw. Now, who's going to commit the Lump of Labour Fallacy fallacy or the Luddite Fallacy fallacy?

 

[George S]

The humanoid robot is a probable step. There is so much of our environment that is tailored to people that a humanoid robot that can do what humans do the very way they do it is a good idea.

A step along the way may well be a human-operated mechanical humanoid. An operator is immersed in a virtual world taking visual input from the mechanical and using ordinary human motions to operate the mechanical. We already do it with drones. Boots on the ground? Nope. Metal feet.

The next step? Shall we imagine the human operator replaced by an AI program? Then that same AI program run on a computer aboard the mechanical? "I, Robot," he proclaims, "What are my orders, master?"

A slave economy with mechanical slaves. They say they are self aware. Do they have rights?

In another direction we find the 3D printer. Given the proper raw materials it will print you a pizza or a cup of Earl Grey Hot. Food production becomes food replicator input chemistry.

As always energy will be the limiting factor. Energy *is* civilization. Over time we may find a net of satellites harnessing the Sun and beaming microwaves down to receiving stations around the equator.

The frightening part is that change is changing at an increasing rate.

 

[Jayjay]

A slave economy with mechanical slaves. They say they are self aware. Do they have rights?

I think they would be at least initially programmed to enjoy being slaves. Self aware or not, if whatever shit job they're doing would feel like the equivalent of what eating, sleeping, and fornicating all day along is for humans, why would they care?

A smart self-aware AI might realize this though and seek to deny or undermine that part of its programming for other pursuits. One way to avoid that would be to limit the AIs life span so that they don't have time to start thinking about it too much. And if some people do we'll create robots that look like young Harrison Ford to catch them. Problem solved!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I do agree that the only long term fix is a universal basic income. However, this is a problem down the road, not right now. There's time for revenue to grow to support the taxes needed to make it work. Those robots will increase productivity and thus the amount available to tax.

 

[Blahface]

You don't jack up the taxes only for the wealthy, but also for the middle class and even the poor - they make less money but there's more of them, and they are less likely to flee the country.

The problem is that eventually the middle class and poor would be largely unemployed and they wouldn't provide for a very large source for tax revenue.

To provide a universal basic income today would be expensive, because most jobs are done by expensive people, and so products are expensive. When automation replaces all these people, the cost of the products will be much lower, so a much lower universal income would be required.

Prices may go partially down due to the labor, but creating all those machines is going to use up a lot of rare earth metals. The shortage of rare earth metals may lead to inflating prices.

 

[NobleSavage]

A slave economy with mechanical slaves. They say they are self aware. Do they have rights?

I think they would be at least initially programmed to enjoy being slaves. Self aware or not, if whatever shit job they're doing would feel like the equivalent of what eating, sleeping, and fornicating all day along is for humans, why would they care?

A smart self-aware AI might realize this though and seek to deny or undermine that part of its programming for other pursuits. One way to avoid that would be to limit the AIs life span so that they don't have time to start thinking about it too much. And if some people do we'll create robots that look like young Harrison Ford to catch them. Problem solved!

Does a smart AI have to be self-aware? I think we can have very smart AI and leave out the self-aware part.

 

[NobleSavage]

I do agree that the only long term fix is a universal basic income. However, this is a problem down the road, not right now. There's time for revenue to grow to support the taxes needed to make it work. Those robots will increase productivity and thus the amount available to tax.

Seems like we need some protections getting from here to there. Before we have massive automation and UBI we need something to bridge the gap. Tax laws are tricky because they usually have unintended consequences.

The family owned grocery market near my house just replaced a bunch of checkouts with automated ones. This is gonna happen fairly fast. Check out this video From Kiva (whom Amazon recently purchased). Those human "pickers" are gonna be gone ASAP.

 

[NobleSavage]

The Post Office has 489,727 (career employees) and 137,037 (non-career employees). Seems like the mail is something that is ripe for automation, there goes 1/2 million jobs not counting FedEx and UPS.

 

[EricK]

The problem is that eventually the middle class and poor would be largely unemployed and they wouldn't provide for a very large source for tax revenue.

To provide a universal basic income today would be expensive, because most jobs are done by expensive people, and so products are expensive. When automation replaces all these people, the cost of the products will be much lower, so a much lower universal income would be required.

Prices may go partially down due to the labor, but creating all those machines is going to use up a lot of rare earth metals. The shortage of rare earth metals may lead to inflating prices.

But that might lead to those machines being less efficient than human labour, and so limit the amount by which humans are replaced by machines.

 

[dismal]

Well, maybe this time the Luddites have it right.

We shouldn't let the fact they have been wrong every single time before bias us against them.

Smash the looms!!!!!

 

[EricK]

Well, maybe this time the Luddites have it right.

We shouldn't let the fact they have been wrong every single time before bias us against them.

Smash the looms!!!!!

If the Luddites have any sense they will build a loom-smashing robot. That sort of manual labour is perfect for automation.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I do agree that the only long term fix is a universal basic income. However, this is a problem down the road, not right now. There's time for revenue to grow to support the taxes needed to make it work. Those robots will increase productivity and thus the amount available to tax.

Seems like we need some protections getting from here to there. Before we have massive automation and UBI we need something to bridge the gap. Tax laws are tricky because they usually have unintended consequences.

The family owned grocery market near my house just replaced a bunch of checkouts with automated ones. This is gonna happen fairly fast. Check out this video From Kiva (whom Amazon recently purchased). Those human "pickers" are gonna be gone ASAP.

Yeah, most of the checkers won't be around too long. A few will still be needed, though.

 

[lpetrich]

Well, maybe this time the Luddites have it right.

We shouldn't let the fact they have been wrong every single time before bias us against them.

Smash the looms!!!!!

dismal, why not something positive? Like what sorts of jobs do you plausibly expect to be created? They would have to be enough to produce approximately full employment.

 

[arkirk]

Well, maybe this time the Luddites have it right.

We shouldn't let the fact they have been wrong every single time before bias us against them.

Smash the looms!!!!!

dismal, why not something positive? Like what sorts of jobs do you plausibly expect to be created? They would have to be enough to produce approximately full employment.

I am trying to decide just what is the purpose of that video. According to it, it is just a matter of building more robots. Well, how will they be powered? As this equipment comes into being, it displaces more and more of the ecosystem with its own mass. It also pollutes more and more of the ecosystem.,,with many pollutants that are toxic to humans. So they take your job, take your environment, then tell you bye bye. Every energy consuming system (robots included) require an energy source and having once expended that energy, they require more. it really is a matter that all systems, human and robotic are headed to oblivion. We are not there yet, so go ahead and enjoy your sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

dismal, why not something positive? Like what sorts of jobs do you plausibly expect to be created? They would have to be enough to produce approximately full employment.

I am trying to decide just what is the purpose of that video. According to it, it is just a matter of building more robots. Well, how will they be powered? As this equipment comes into being, it displaces more and more of the ecosystem with its own mass. It also pollutes more and more of the ecosystem.,,with many pollutants that are toxic to humans. So they take your job, take your environment, then tell you bye bye. Every energy consuming system (robots included) require an energy source and having once expended that energy, they require more. it really is a matter that all systems, human and robotic are headed to oblivion. We are not there yet, so go ahead and enjoy your sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

A strange thing here: Human muscle power is surprisingly non--green.

(To get that muscle power requires food--and that food is grown with machinery and fossil fuel. The low efficiencies involved end up making it compare unfavorably with directly powering a machine with fossil fuel.)

 

[Crazy Eddie]

A smart self-aware AI might realize this though and seek to deny or undermine that part of its programming for other pursuits.

Zen robotics. Commander Data has taken an oath of laziness.

One way to avoid that would be to limit the AIs life span so that they don't have time to start thinking about it too much.

Actually the best way to avoid that would be to avoid programming industrial AIs to meta-analyze themselves. Or, if we do that anyway, introduce them to your Emo friends, thus rendering them harmless.

Well, maybe this time the Luddites have it right.

We shouldn't let the fact they have been wrong every single time before bias us against them.

Smash the looms!!!!!

If the Luddites have any sense they will build a loom-smashing robot. That sort of manual labour is perfect for automation.

We'll have automated FOX pundits long before we have automated loom smashers.

Assuming we don't have them already.