Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

[Derec]

Underway for almost an hour. First results (pre-realignment) due soon.

I think the final ranking will be
Bernie
Biden
Buttigieg
Klobuchar
Warren
Yang

Of course I will probably not get it all right, but I hope to be in the ballpark. Especially Klobuchar is a wildcard as to where she will end up.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Underway for almost an hour. First results (pre-realignment) due soon.

I think the final ranking will be
Bernie
Biden
Buttigieg
Klobuchar
Warren
Yang

Of course I will probably not get it all right, but I hope to be in the ballpark. Especially Klobuchar is a wildcard as to where she will end up.

That would be what the polls predict, but we may see some surprises. I think Biden will surprise us with a poorer performance than expected, and Yang with better than expected (but still not high up the list). I also thin you may have Warren too low on your list. Hard to say tough with the way the caucus works.

 

[ZiprHead]

It's a weird but interesting way of doing things. Ultimately it precludes a lot of people from participating, evening workers, or those who just cannot make an entire evening of it.

 

[Derec]

That would be what the polls predict, but we may see some surprises.

I know - I did not go too far out on the limb.

I think Biden will surprise us with a poorer performance than expected, and Yang with better than expected (but still not high up the list). I also thin you may have Warren too low on your list. Hard to say tough with the way the caucus works.

I reversed Klobuchar and Warren based on her being from a neighboring state and enjoying something of an upswing in polls relative to Warren's flaundering.

I think Biden will be a lot of moderates' second choice, which will save him.

 

[Trausti]

So it looks like Sanders will "win" this Iowa mess. Sleepy Joe is on his way out. Can Mini Mike save the day?

 

[Derec]

So it looks like Sanders will "win" this Iowa mess. Sleepy Joe is on his way out. Can Mini Mike save the day?

If Biden finishes 2nd he is still in very good shape. He has the South Carolina firewall.

 

[Derec]

(Iowa Caucus Headquarters, 2020, colorized)

By the way, it's not an inconceivable conspiracy theory that DNC sabotaged the Iowa Caucuses deliberately, in order to pressure them to move to primaries and/or to move to a state more likely to go for the DNC choice. Iowa done messed up Hillary's 2008 nomination coronation after all.

 

[barbos]

What? Trump won Iowa Democratic Caucus?
These russians!

 

[Derec]

What? Trump won Iowa Democratic Caucus?
These russians!

Wrong Caucus.

 

[lpetrich]

Results for Iowa caucuses delayed as state Democratic Party finds 'inconsistencies'

The Iowa presidential caucuses were thrown into chaos late Monday after the state Democratic Party said it found "inconsistencies," delaying results and causing widespread confusion across the state.

The Iowa Democratic Party said early Tuesday that it would release the results of the Iowa caucuses later Tuesday after "manually verifying all precinct results."

Iowa caucus results: Chaos on Iowa caucus night - CBS News

As the campaigns came to learn, the Iowa Democratic Party found "inconsistencies" in reporting the three sets of results it promised to deliver. The information was to come from precinct captains, who were to report it through a newly developed app. But they ran into trouble as caucuses finished.

"In addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail to validate that all results match and ensure that we have confidence and accuracy in the numbers we report," the Iowa Democratic Party said in a statement. "The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results."

As I post this, it's a little after 4 am in Iowa, so I think that we will learn more late this morning or afternoon.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

When I saw this when I woke up, all I could think was that the Sanders supporters here are going to be livid.

And generally, everyone should be livid in the sense that the Democrat Party apparently screwed the pooch with this new system.

 

[TV and credit cards]

When I saw this when I woke up, all I could think was that the Sanders supporters here are going to be livid.

And generally, everyone should be livid in the sense that the Democrat Party apparently screwed the pooch with this new system.

There was a report on NPR this morning that it is a lack of training/familiarity with the app. A few who did train in advance had no problems.

 

[funinspace]

So it looks like Sanders will "win" this Iowa mess. Sleepy Joe is on his way out. Can Mini Mike save the day?

If Biden finishes 2nd he is still in very good shape. He has the South Carolina firewall.

I watched the fiasco on CNN last night. Though it is only a sampling of a few sites out of 1700, the 6ish places that CNN was physically at, I think Biden only got above the 15% mark on the first vote in one place. Biden might be lucky if he comes in 3rd...

Some data from the campaigns:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...-caucus-results-bernie-sanders-pete-buttigieg

Buttigieg put out less comprehensive numbers, focusing only on how his campaign did. But his count claims to be more expansive in terms of precincts, covering roughly 75 percent of them. According to the campaign’s tally, Buttigieg got 22 percent of the vote on the first alignment, 25 percent on the final alignment (after supporters of nonviable candidates switched their support to him), and 28 percent of the state delegate equivalents — not too far off from where Sanders’s count puts him.

The overall results released by the Sanders campaign are very good for the Vermont senator, who’s in first place. They’re also pretty good for Buttigieg, with a close second-place finish. Warren, at third, isn’t too far behind.

But these results would also be disastrous for Biden. Even as the frontrunner in the national polls, Biden wasn’t expected to win in Iowa. But the expectations were he could do better than fourth place.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

When I saw this when I woke up, all I could think was that the Sanders supporters here are going to be livid.

And generally, everyone should be livid in the sense that the Democrat Party apparently screwed the pooch with this new system.

There was a report on NPR this morning that it is a lack of training/familiarity with the app. A few who did train in advance had no problems.

Since they didn't start coding the app until two months ago there wasn't much time to test it or train on it.

However, I think the mainstream media is making a bigger deal out of the app than is necessary. And some of that is coming from Biden's lawyers and leaks from Biden campaign.

The news media really doesn't know what is going on. There were paper ballots required, too. The system is just way too complicated and weird.

We will hear the real story soon. I think.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

You know what would solve all these issues? Not doing these dumb caucuses and just voting like normal people and then having Iowa take it's turn at the back of the line for several decades.

 

[Jarhyn]

When I saw this when I woke up, all I could think was that the Sanders supporters here are going to be livid.

And generally, everyone should be livid in the sense that the Democrat Party apparently screwed the pooch with this new system.

There was a report on NPR this morning that it is a lack of training/familiarity with the app. A few who did train in advance had no problems.

Since they didn't start coding the app until two months ago there wasn't much time to test it or train on it.

However, I think the mainstream media is making a bigger deal out of the app than is necessary. And some of that is coming from Biden's lawyers and leaks from Biden campaign.

The news media really doesn't know what is going on. There were paper ballots required, too. The system is just way too complicated and weird.

We will hear the real story soon. I think.

I suspect that the real story isn't going to be reported: the DNC, in their rush to head off Sanders, engineered a clusterfuck to prevent headlines all night of "Sanders is #1". Now, the news cycle is "caucus clusterfuck" not "(candidate DNC hates) takes Iowa".

Cynical, I know. But absolutely par for the course.

 

[southernhybrid]

This just proves how insane it is to continue to use an extremely outdated method of voting. Only a tiny number of people actually showed up for the caucus vote and most of them were white. I hope that Iowa comes into the 21st Century and votes like normal people do. I also hope this will be the last year that Iowa goes first. And, not everyone who has won in Iowa went on to win the nomination. Tom Harkin had 76% of the delegates when he was running for president. Tom who? Iowa should be considered irrelevant. Why not have a large, diverse state go first or have all the states vote on or near Super Tuesday. Less money would be wasted and no small state would have an outsized influence in the race.

The conspiracy theories are nuts as to what happened in Iowa. They simply had a very bad plan, and it was known very early on Monday morning that there were major problems with the App. Hey Iowa! You fucked up royally.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

You know what would solve all these issues? Not doing these dumb caucuses and just voting like normal people and then having Iowa take it's turn at the back of the line for several decades.

I'm going to go the other way on this. I think we should make the process even more complicated than it already is. We could have the candidates also have to milk sheep and go through a corn maze. In the dark. In addition to everything else with the paper work and how many people show up and scream makes you win. This is why Iowa is so important and should be first.

 

[ideologyhunter]

I think it should be decided in Audobon, Iowa, by Albert the Bull. He's one big sum-bitch (30 feet tall) and his word would be authoritative. If they could only get the local adolescents to stop writing graffiti on his nutsack….it's not dignified.

 

[ZiprHead]

You know what would solve all these issues? Not doing these dumb caucuses and just voting like normal people and then having Iowa take it's turn at the back of the line for several decades.

This is it in a nutshell. Caucuses leave a great many people without the ability to make their choice heard. People who have to work that night, the old, infirm, or disabled, no absentee ballot.

But I will say this also. I'm against open primaries. Why should people who are not members of the club get a say in who runs the club?