Is Crypto dying or just dropping for the moment?

[Gun Nut]

That's the thing: I didn't discuss "necessity" and I didn't invite "necessity" to the conversation. That was you, inviting that rude asshole in here where it doesn't belong except perhaps in narrow focus.

I'm talking about "necessary to a goal" not "necessary first for any other goals to be considered".

The goal of trucks is to have a big vehicle that can see far, go over adverse terrain, and haul stuff easily. Sometimes also to be "loud".

This is the discussion not of whether truck; truck or not as you please. This is the issue of "can we truck without ICE", or "can we crypto WITHOUT burning the world for it". The answer to both is "yes".

If the point is the last paragraph, then sure yes to both, sort of, kind of. Because the US, today, cannot produce 2 million affordable trucks w/o ICE. The 'yes' sounds great for goals for the future...

As far as goals of trucks, probably 75% of those trucks are single person commuter vehicles, with a primary goal of "status"...one can tell by the shiny, unblemished looks as the lone driver is spotted on the highway/road going to their job in a building.

I have a year 2000 Ford F250, V10 gas burner. It spends the vast majority of its time hooked up to a 2-horse trailer, hauling back and forth from relatively close-by shows and clinics, and the rest as a construction/utility vehicle. I bought it in 2005 with 8k miles on it and today it has all of 41,000. I'd love to have an electric truck but can't justify the expense given how little use it would see. I'll just have to keep on destroying the planet...

I use my truck even less than you do, now-a-days.. I won't be replacing it for several years. But maybe for you, someday, take a look at the new F150. It's all electric, as powerful as two teslas, can power your entire house for a week, and has infinite torque for towing the entire planet behind you.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Iceland and Canada are no slouches when it comes to mining this, this, whatever it is. China was #1 until Xi-J got an itch. You seem to suggest that not giving a damn is a shared national trait. I think folks will do whatever their governments let them get away with.

My point is that humans do tons of things that consume tons of energy for pleasure/entertainment. I find it odd to single out crypto mining as bad for the environment. Though Americans seem far more disinclined to work towards using less carbon based energy, than the EU and Japan. It seems like the US is a long time away from accepting the idea of a significant carbon/energy tax increase. Of course that could partly be due to the reality that we have far more carbon based energy to make money off of...

Bibly, thanks for making a more detailed version of my point.

Okay, I take your point. Right now I don't see the utility of something like bitcoin and it surely wasn't created for it's entertainment value. I just see the materialization of greed. For me and perhaps others I would look upon a Bitcoin farm and all that I would see is that we have managed to take this most undesirable human trait and present it in it's physical form.

 

[Jarhyn]

Iceland and Canada are no slouches when it comes to mining this, this, whatever it is. China was #1 until Xi-J got an itch. You seem to suggest that not giving a damn is a shared national trait. I think folks will do whatever their governments let them get away with.

My point is that humans do tons of things that consume tons of energy for pleasure/entertainment. I find it odd to single out crypto mining as bad for the environment. Though Americans seem far more disinclined to work towards using less carbon based energy, than the EU and Japan. It seems like the US is a long time away from accepting the idea of a significant carbon/energy tax increase. Of course that could partly be due to the reality that we have far more carbon based energy to make money off of...

Bibly, thanks for making a more detailed version of my point.

Okay, I take your point. Right now I don't see the utility of something like bitcoin and it surely wasn't created for it's entertainment value. I just see the materialization of greed. For me and perhaps others I would look upon a Bitcoin farm and all that I would see is that we have managed to take this most undesirable human trait and present it in it's physical form.

Indeed that is what many see. But more, the utility of it is the same utility money has, but more secure, and capable of being spent without the inconvenience of worrying about whether someone even could possibly say "no". In many ways the value of Bitcoin is having (nearly) absolute agency to spend and receive currency without third party involvement.

Of course, in Bitcoin there is a third party, but it is similar to the "third party" of physics, the virtual particle field: it can be safely ignored in the ubiquity of it's operation.

Banks can go bankrupt, close their doors, deny you access, give all your money to the IRS, freeze your accounts, demand you pay fees for access to your money...

There are no "god mode powers" with digital currencies currently on offer, and that's one of the features "on sale", namely that I don't have to sell my soul to Wells Fargo to own a secure account.

 

[funinspace]

That's the thing: I didn't discuss "necessity" and I didn't invite "necessity" to the conversation. That was you, inviting that rude asshole in here where it doesn't belong except perhaps in narrow focus.

I'm talking about "necessary to a goal" not "necessary first for any other goals to be considered".

The goal of trucks is to have a big vehicle that can see far, go over adverse terrain, and haul stuff easily. Sometimes also to be "loud".

This is the discussion not of whether truck; truck or not as you please. This is the issue of "can we truck without ICE", or "can we crypto WITHOUT burning the world for it". The answer to both is "yes".

If the point is the last paragraph, then sure yes to both, sort of, kind of. Because the US, today, cannot produce 2 million affordable trucks w/o ICE. The 'yes' sounds great for goals for the future...

As far as goals of trucks, probably 75% of those trucks are single person commuter vehicles, with a primary goal of "status"...one can tell by the shiny, unblemished looks as the lone driver is spotted on the highway/road going to their job in a building.

As I said, I'm not going to go into whether people have a right to do "things" for "status". Humans can and will pursue goals.

I can guarantee you that if the us government mandated trucks happen without ICE going forward, 2 million affordable tricks without ICE would suddenly start happening.

It doesn't matter what people do with them on this level of the conversation; what matters is whether they are built efficiently.

With Bitcoin, there is not even a material obstacle to forking it in a way that doesn't have the original inefficiencies. It is just the laziness of the programmers that keeps it so, and that laziness will evaporate the moment that their wealth generated from the platform is no longer flowing as they wish on account of it being rendered illegal until they fix it.

The point I was making is that it is weird to me to pick on crypto mining in particular. If one wants to argue for a hefty carbon tax to reduce all sorts of wasted expenditures of energy, count me in 110%.

 

[funinspace]

I have a year 2000 Ford F250, V10 gas burner. It spends the vast majority of its time hooked up to a 2-horse trailer, hauling back and forth from relatively close-by shows and clinics, and the rest as a construction/utility vehicle. I bought it in 2005 with 8k miles on it and today it has all of 41,000. I'd love to have an electric truck but can't justify the expense given how little use it would see. I'll just have to keep on destroying the planet...

I use my truck even less than you do, now-a-days.. I won't be replacing it for several years. But maybe for you, someday, take a look at the new F150. It's all electric, as powerful as two teslas, can power your entire house for a week, and has infinite torque for towing the entire planet behind you.

And my other vehicle is a 2017 4WD Tacoma, that just crossed 20k miles. It also sits a lot, when not being used to do things a Prius can't do so well...no argument on my part against trucks in general, nor against humans entertaining themselves...that sounded weird.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Okay, I take your point. Right now I don't see the utility of something like bitcoin and it surely wasn't created for it's entertainment value. I just see the materialization of greed. For me and perhaps others I would look upon a Bitcoin farm and all that I would see is that we have managed to take this most undesirable human trait and present it in it's physical form.

Indeed that is what many see. But more, the utility of it is the same utility money has, but more secure, and capable of being spent without the inconvenience of worrying about whether someone even could possibly say "no". In many ways the value of Bitcoin is having (nearly) absolute agency to spend and receive currency without third party involvement.

Of course, in Bitcoin there is a third party, but it is similar to the "third party" of physics, the virtual particle field: it can be safely ignored in the ubiquity of it's operation.

Banks can go bankrupt, close their doors, deny you access, give all your money to the IRS, freeze your accounts, demand you pay fees for access to your money...

There are no "god mode powers" with digital currencies currently on offer, and that's one of the features "on sale", namely that I don't have to sell my soul to Wells Fargo to own a secure account.

Yes, I just always seen it as fantastical that any government, particularly the US would allow the dollar to be supplanted by it. This with the slow, and I believe increasingly so, transaction times, I just don’t understand the attraction aside from countries with less stable currencies.

 

[Jarhyn]

Okay, I take your point. Right now I don't see the utility of something like bitcoin and it surely wasn't created for it's entertainment value. I just see the materialization of greed. For me and perhaps others I would look upon a Bitcoin farm and all that I would see is that we have managed to take this most undesirable human trait and present it in it's physical form.

Indeed that is what many see. But more, the utility of it is the same utility money has, but more secure, and capable of being spent without the inconvenience of worrying about whether someone even could possibly say "no". In many ways the value of Bitcoin is having (nearly) absolute agency to spend and receive currency without third party involvement.

Of course, in Bitcoin there is a third party, but it is similar to the "third party" of physics, the virtual particle field: it can be safely ignored in the ubiquity of it's operation.

Banks can go bankrupt, close their doors, deny you access, give all your money to the IRS, freeze your accounts, demand you pay fees for access to your money...

There are no "god mode powers" with digital currencies currently on offer, and that's one of the features "on sale", namely that I don't have to sell my soul to Wells Fargo to own a secure account.

Yes, I just always seen it as fantastical that any government, particularly the US would allow the dollar to be supplanted by it. This with the slow, and I believe increasingly so, transaction times, I just don’t understand the attraction aside from countries with less stable currencies.

Transaction time is a function of "proof of work", which many of us argue is the real sticking point with digital currencies, with respect to end users.

On the government side, this creates a single broken concern which they have a right to see respected, and a number of broken concerns that I would shit in the mouth of the person that voiced them.

The primary concern, taxes.

The secondary concern, purely deserving of having someone shit in your mouth, "we want to be nannies over what you do with the money."

Of course, we have plenty of things that don't stand to be done for profit, but the same of us recognize that such a set is identical to "the set of things you don't let people do, period". Generally, that can be addressed with laws against the activity itself rather than the economic exchange.

 

[TSwizzle]

Well the arse has fallen out of the crypto fantasy although Bitcoin is still surprisingly high.

 

[Jayjay]

Bitcoin is now at about the same level when I sold it in early 2021. I don't pretend to know if it'll fall more, but I would guess that it will.

What's become clear this year though is that bitcoin isn't a "safe haven" or "digital gold" that many claim it is. Bitcoin fell pretty much in line with stock market. It's part of the same speculative tech bubble that's now being burst.

 

[marc]

Bit long, but an interesting video explaining crypto and NFT's

 

[marc]

huff po on crypto problems this week

Bitcoin Tumbles In Wild Week For Cryptocurrency

One of the crypto industry’s highest-profile companies lost a third of its market value -- and that's just for starters.

www.huffpost.com

found this part funny:

Stablecoins have been viewed as a safe harbor haven among cryptocurrencies. That’s because the value of many stablecoins is pegged to a government-backed currency, such as the U.S. dollar, or precious metals such as gold.

thought part of the appeal of crypto was that it frees you from the banks and currency manipulation of government backed currency.

 

[Jayjay]

If I understood correctly, this crash was precipitated by a technical failure of a single stable coin platform?

 

[Jayjay]

Wired had another interesting take on the Terra/Luna stablecoin mess:

Terra’s Crypto Meltdown Was Inevitable

An epic crash in algorithmic stablecoins spells trouble for the entire industry.

www.wired.com

So basically, the idea was to have an algorithm to peg UST (Terra) to $1, unlike earlier stablecoins like Tether that were (allegedly) backed by actual dollar deposits. The article seems to imply that it was inevitable that this scheme would crash and burn sooner or later because it wasn't held together by anything but collective belief that it would work. But when the value of the "stable" UST token started to fall a lot below one dollar, the system collapsed.

 

[steve_bank]

The greatest financial scam of all time. A legal Ponzi scheme. Other than people willing to buy and sell, the value of any currency is tied to economies and real goods and services. There is no intrinsic value to crypto currency.

The originators propebly converted profits to gold, real estate. and US dollars.

There were alleged practical reasons to use crypto currency such as trasparent and traceable global trasnsactions. It was said it woud suppress drug monay. However people figured out how tol aunder crypto just like criminals do with paper currency.


What is the conversion rate to Monopoly money?

 

[Harry Bosch]

The greatest financial scam of all time. A legal Ponzi scheme. Other than people willing to buy and sell, the value of any currency is tied to economies and real goods and services. There is no intrinsic value to crypto currency.

The originators propebly converted profits to gold, real estate. and US dollars.

There were alleged practical reasons to use crypto currency such as trasparent and traceable global trasnsactions. It was said it woud suppress drug monay. However people figured out how tol aunder crypto just like criminals do with paper currency.


What is the conversion rate to Monopoly money?

I think that you're probably right. Another issue is that many people have put all their investment in Crypto. All your eggs in any one basket is a mistake. Diversify. I have some crypto, but it's probably under 2%. I'm pretty damned exposed in the stock market now, and it's not doing well right now! But I sleep fine at night because I'm invested in hundreds (thousands) of companies via index funds.

 

[RVonse]

The greatest financial scam of all time. A legal Ponzi scheme. Other than people willing to buy and sell, the value of any currency is tied to economies and real goods and services. There is no intrinsic value to crypto currency.

The originators propebly converted profits to gold, real estate. and US dollars.

There were alleged practical reasons to use crypto currency such as trasparent and traceable global trasnsactions. It was said it woud suppress drug monay. However people figured out how tol aunder crypto just like criminals do with paper currency.


What is the conversion rate to Monopoly money?

Bitcoin might prove to be a failure but I still would not call it a scam. I never invested in bitcoin myself but there were many institutions who did, including the government of El Salvador. And as volatile as it is...it still has not reached what I would call failure yet.

About the only thing one can really conclude so far with certainty, is that bitcoin would have never become popular in the first place if the world had not lost complete faith and trust in the US reserve currency. Beginning with the Nixon decoupling of the gold standard, to today rejection of a former superpower out of their dollar denominated assets. The US has properly told the world just how untrustworthy the US dollar is. We have just seen how the US can sanction anyone anywhere at will and their dollar assets are canceled.

So if bitcoin does indeed fail, I would expect some other idea to take its place. Simply because the producers of the world will always desire some kind of honest and trustworthy storage of their labor. And that would not be the US dollar.

 

[steve_bank]

Reminiscent of the great stock market crash? Many ignorant investors thinking they could get easy money by investing in anything.

Crypto also has the scifi cool factor.

I exect the originators of first coalmines are very wealthy right now and the crypto market can disappear without affecting them. In a Ponzi scheme the originators escape with a lot of money when the stocks inevitably crash.

Some years back two guys started a small company with not much physical resources and went public, a legitimate startup. Within a few monts for some reason peopie began wildy trading the stock and the price skyrocketed. When interviewd the owners said thay had no clue what was going on, they had no product yet. Crypto was more of an idea than a commodity with value. I would be very very surprised if the orginal crtors had anything but making a lot of money in mind. A get rich quick scheme.

As to institutions investing, anybody can get investments wrong and often do.

A news segment on the crypto crash showed a crypto commercial with an NBA star promoting it with a rap bet in the background.

I never thought about using it. You ahve to buy crypto and then use it to buy something? Seems like a credit rt debit card is more hamdy.

I carry cash in my wallet but I use a credit card exclusively unless a store does not take plastic.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The greatest financial scam of all time. A legal Ponzi scheme. Other than people willing to buy and sell, the value of any currency is tied to economies and real goods and services. There is no intrinsic value to crypto currency.

The originators propebly converted profits to gold, real estate. and US dollars.

There were alleged practical reasons to use crypto currency such as trasparent and traceable global trasnsactions. It was said it woud suppress drug monay. However people figured out how tol aunder crypto just like criminals do with paper currency.


What is the conversion rate to Monopoly money?

Bitcoin might prove to be a failure but I still would not call it a scam. I never invested in bitcoin myself but there were many institutions who did, including the government of El Salvador. And as volatile as it is...it still has not reached what I would call failure yet.

About the only thing one can really conclude so far with certainty, is that bitcoin would have never become popular in the first place if the world had not lost complete faith and trust in the US reserve currency. Beginning with the Nixon decoupling of the gold standard, to today rejection of a former superpower out of their dollar denominated assets. The US has properly told the world just how untrustworthy the US dollar is. We have just seen how the US can sanction anyone anywhere at will and their dollar assets are canceled.

So if bitcoin does indeed fail, I would expect some other idea to take its place. Simply because the producers of the world will always desire some kind of honest and trustworthy storage of their labor. And that would not be the US dollar.

Well, this is just malarky. Just ask any exporter or importer: the currency of choice is the dollar. In 2020, 90% of the worlds international transactions were conducted in dollars. Not gold. Not the ruble.

 

[steve_bank]

China woud like to replace the dollar with the yen.

Global trade requires stability, that is not going to come from a currency not directly backed by a major government.

To me currency is simply a form of barter, I get money for labor and I can exchange my labor for food. If the US governmt creted a crpto currency equivalent toand tied to the dollar for digital transactions that would be a different matter. There was someting in past news about that being under consideration. I'd have to fact check, I think China may have one.

 

[RVonse]

 

The greatest financial scam of all time. A legal Ponzi scheme. Other than people willing to buy and sell, the value of any currency is tied to economies and real goods and services. There is no intrinsic value to crypto currency.

The originators propebly converted profits to gold, real estate. and US dollars.

There were alleged practical reasons to use crypto currency such as trasparent and traceable global trasnsactions. It was said it woud suppress drug monay. However people figured out how tol aunder crypto just like criminals do with paper currency.


What is the conversion rate to Monopoly money?

Bitcoin might prove to be a failure but I still would not call it a scam. I never invested in bitcoin myself but there were many institutions who did, including the government of El Salvador. And as volatile as it is...it still has not reached what I would call failure yet.

About the only thing one can really conclude so far with certainty, is that bitcoin would have never become popular in the first place if the world had not lost complete faith and trust in the US reserve currency. Beginning with the Nixon decoupling of the gold standard, to today rejection of a former superpower out of their dollar denominated assets. The US has properly told the world just how untrustworthy the US dollar is. We have just seen how the US can sanction anyone anywhere at will and their dollar assets are canceled.

So if bitcoin does indeed fail, I would expect some other idea to take its place. Simply because the producers of the world will always desire some kind of honest and trustworthy storage of their labor. And that would not be the US dollar.

Well, this is just malarky. Just ask any exporter or importer: the currency of choice is the dollar. In 2020, 90% of the worlds international transactions were conducted in dollars. Not gold. Not the ruble.

But that does not mean they are happy about it at all. Ask yourself this hypothetical question. If I produce what is $100 worth of profits and goods, put those dollars in the bank, then can only purchase the equivalent of $90 worth of goods tomorrow....can I stay in business? Why are all the countries who have been heavily sanctioned starting to buy gold reserves? Why do poor people care about inflation more than rich people?

And it is not just the incompetence of the US government either. There exists a whole group of corrupt money changing rent seekers such as the central banks who are greatly benefiting while producers and users of their monetary system (which is most of us) are paying for this. The design of bitcoin was to decentralize the system...to do away with the central bank leaches who produce nothing but suck the labor from others. Bitcoin has the goal to level the playing making financial engineering impossible... making it impossible to dilute the supply, taking from the poor and giving to the rich, as is the case today. Why do you think that El Salvador endorsed bitcoin in favor of the US dollar?

Obviously we are not there yet. But I believe the goal is correct that someday such a fair monetary system may become possible.