Is Poroshenko finished?

[tupac chopra]

Is Poroshenko finished, and will extremist groups take over Western Ukraine?

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/20/the-exceptional-u-s-suffers-crushing-defeat-in-debaltsevo/

The full impact of the defeat will not be known until angry troops returning from the front amass on the streets of the Capital and demand Petro Poroshenko’s resignation. The Ukrainian President is responsible for the massacre at Debaltsevo. He was fully aware that his army faced encirclement but ordered them to remain in order to satisfy powerful right-wing elements in his government. The disaster is even more terrible due to the fact that it was entirely avoidable and achieved no strategic purpose at all. Extreme hubris frequently impacts outcomes on the battlefield. This was the case at Debaltsevo.

The debacle ensures that the bumbling president’s days are numbered. It’s nearly certain that he will either be replaced or hanged sometime in weeks ahead. He has already flown his family to safety out of the country, and there’s growing speculation that both Washington and the far-right nationalists who occupy the Security Services will insist on his removal. That paves the way for a second Ukrainian coup in less than a year, a grim reminder of the tragic failings of US policy in Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

Debaltseva was a failure, but I think Poroshenko would have been under much more flak if he had given the order to surrender. A new guy in the lead would not magically make Ukraine capable of defending itself, and the far right knows that internal squabbling would just play into Russian hands. The war isn't over with Debaltseve: the separatists are amassing their forces near Mariupol and have been shelling nearby villages already.

So, I think this scenario is not very likely to play out.

 

[tupac chopra]

He doesn't seem too popular
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwnEGXrU42E

 

[Jayjay]

I can't comment on the video, because A) I don't speak Ukrainian so I can't verify what they are chanting, and B) I can't find a reliable (i.e. non-Russian) source. But there are also not Euromaidan-style street protests against Poroshenko, and if the far right was going to oust him by means of another Maidan, there shoudl be some rallies or speeches to that effect or someone reporting about it.

 

[funinspace]

I don’t know if Poroshenko is finished, but their economy is crashing big time. Tough times for any leader, even without a war…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/25/1366784/-Ukraine-enters-hyperinflation#

With all this 'help' Ukrainian debt/GDP ratio is racing beyond sustainability bounds...
Inflation is now hitting 28.5% in January - double the Russian rate. And that is before full increases in energy prices are factored in per IMF 'reforms'.

GDP is declining even more steeply, the black market seems to have already priced in further declines of their hryvnia currency; and Russia’s Gazprom is again threatening to cut off gas again, unless upfront cash payments are made.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-from-purchasing-foreign-currency-for-clients

Its currency, the hryvnia, has lost about a half of it value this month, forcing the central bank to tighten capital controls to keep money from fleeing the country.
<snip>
Gross domestic product shrank as much as 7.5 percent last year, the IMF estimates. The economy will probably contract 5.5 percent in 2015, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said Feb. 16. GDP fell 15.2 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period of 2013, the biggest drop in five years. Reserves shrank to $6.4 billion in January from $17.8 billion a year earlier.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don’t know if Poroshenko is finished, but their economy is crashing big time.

Their economy was bankrupted over a year ago. It was one of the things that started the whole problem. The former leader is being sought by Interpol for embezzlement.

 

[funinspace]

I don’t know if Poroshenko is finished, but their economy is crashing big time.

Their economy was bankrupted over a year ago. It was one of the things that started the whole problem. The former leader is being sought by Interpol for embezzlement.

Yes, their economy has been a mess for a couple decades, and corruption seems to be a way of life there. They even had to replace their currency in the mid 1990's. However, they are working on throwing a new hyperinflation party this new year, as they evidently enjoyed the last one so much...