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Jimmy Higgins Calls Senate Race for Democrats in November

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Jimmy Higgins

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Continuing to ride a tide of disapproval of the Republican's handling of anything and a historical election of Obama in '08, the Democrats increased their control of the Senate to eventually 60 seats, after the lawsuits in Minnesota finally ended. This included victories into areas that were typically Republican strongholds.

The disapproval of Republicans has since dissipated despite a continuation of ridiculous decisions. Additionally, other Republican strongholds which had conservative Democrats retire have seen the states swap back to Republicans. Some of the states at risk this time around are battleground states and a couple Republican strongholds. Many of the races are competitive, with incumbency giving strength to some Democrats like Begich.

On the other side of the tracks, races like in Georgia and Kentucky show an unlikely shot of a Democrat takeover.

All things being equal, Jimmy Higgins projects that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate by a couple of seats.
 
Nice Squirrel gives it as a toss up at this time. It could go either way. Might even be a 50-50 split.

All things the same: 2016, the Dems will take over the Senate and come close to taking the House (The House because of demographic changes in over gerrymanded districts.)
 
AthenaAwakened said:
I'm not even looking at this year or even really 2016.

It's the state house elections in 2020 that will be where the action is.
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But given how difficult it can be to remove incumbents, that's an iterative process which starts this November.
 
Nate Silver says 64% chance Republicans win Senate:

The Republicans’ edge comes from an abundance of opportunity. They are almost certain to win the Democratic-held seats in Montana and West Virginia, and very likely to do so in South Dakota. That gives them three of the six seats they need. Beyond that, they have few guarantees but a lot of good prospects:
◾Republicans are slightly favored, though far from certain, to oust Democratic incumbents in Louisiana and Arkansas.
◾Four more Democratic-held seats — in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina — rate as tossups.
◾While Democrats are favored in Michigan and New Hampshire, Republicans retain some chances to win those states as well.

Democrats, by contrast, have plausible chances to win only three Republican-held seats — in Georgia, Kentucky and Kansas — and they aren’t favored in any of those races.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...el-is-back-and-it-gives-republicans-the-edge/
 
Sounds about right. If the Dems can fire up their bases, they might eek it out. But that's a huge "if".
 
Goddammit Jimmy, if you just jinxed this I will hunt you down and kill you for really real in real life.
 
Arrrr! Nate Silver gives the Republicans a 65% chance of winning control.
 
That shifts it to closer to fifty-fifty: unless independent dude wins and chooses to caucus with republicans. No way to predict that. That means the repubs still have advantage, as they have more than one way to win.
 
Sarpedon said:
That shifts it to closer to fifty-fifty: unless independent dude wins and chooses to caucus with republicans. No way to predict that. That means the repubs still have advantage, as they have more than one way to win.
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I see it as 51 to 49. I think the incumbents by-large will win their elections.

ksen said:
Goddammit Jimmy, if you just jinxed this I will hunt you down and kill you for really real in real life.
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I've been right so far with my early predictions.
 
I've had the same prediction for four months, no reason to change:

Republicans will pickup 4 seats, perhaps 5. In spite of the generic polling advantage and disapproval of Obama, the lack of enthusiasm among Republican Tea Party embittered rank and file compared to 2010 will deny them the Senate majority.
 
Nice Squirrel said:
Remember this is before the Kansas shake up.
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No. Silver included Kansas as a possible Democrat turn. Roberts was in no trouble in a 3 way race. But Kansas is shaky because the independent, Orman I think is his name. Could win a still side with Republicans once elected.
 
Republicans win three open seats pretty likely. That leaves two more open seats that are toss ups and 5 Democrat incumbents who are rated toss-ups. Republican need to win 3 of those seven toss up states. They also need to retain the seats they are defending but their candidates are all leading there albeit only by a small margin. I don't see where NH is likely to turn GOP even though Silver gives them a good chance.

What I actually expect to happen is the Republicans will hold their weak seats and probably gain at least 5 of the toss-up states. That's because all those unpopular Obamacare measures that he delayed for a year will now come into play this fall. In addition, I expect that the economy will worsen between now and November. So I expect the GOP to gain a minimum of 8 seats.

All of this is a bit premature I'll admit because we've just past labor day and people are only now beginning to pay attention. Since I've been paying attention to this about a year ago we've seen very little movement. Only Iowa Colorado have shifted from leaning Democrat to toss-up although I'd suggest that Louisiana should also be called leaning Republican from toss-up, but that is contrary to the current consensus. But now that the campaign season has begun in earnest, we might begin to see candidates starting to solidify their support.
 
nvm jimmy, bill just saved your life. I feel better now.
 
The Republicans just got some bad news in Kansas turning to welcome news a few hours ago. Normally Democrats have shown themselves (since the demise of Lee Atwater) far more adept at taking the most Machiavellian road in inter-party conflict, a talent the Republicans seem to lack (except in attacking their own). Chad Taylor, a district attorney and the Democratic nominee informed the Kansas Secretary of State Wednesday that he was withdrawing from the race (as pressured by State Democratic Party leadership). Originally, his statement said his campaign is “terminated” and he provided no reason.

The hope was that Taylor’s move would lead to broader support for the independent candidate in the race, Olathe businessman Greg Orman. And Orman, who is better funded, would serve as the Democratic Party Trojan horse - most likely a 'pretend' independent.

Turns out he and his staff did not read the statute carefully; as required by law Taylor had to explain the 'special circumstances' (e.g. illness) that made him unable to serve if elected - one supposes throwing the election to a ersatz independent is not one of them. So he is back on the ballot and as he filed minutes before the deadline it is too late to resubmit. Worse yet, he will have to go to court to sue to be taken off AND if he is, then the Democratic Party is required by law to provide another candidate. They could, of course, nominate Orman BUT that would almost certainly assure Roberts victory as no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1932.

What looked to be a smooth bit of trickery is turning into a public spectacle of dirty politics failing, which can only help Roberts (R) in his re-election.
 
And it is usually Republicans making the pin-headed blunders, but this election cycle it seems that the Democrats have lost a bit of their machine like efficiency.

In the last few days Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has been forced to pull a scathing attack ad, accusing his GOP opponent, Sullivan (the former attorney general), of giving early release to a prisoner who was subsequently alleged to have then committed a double murder and sexual assault of a child. Problem is, Begich ran the ad without consulting the victims family or the lawyers in a case yet to be prosecuted - endangering the case and causing much anger from the family and their lawyers.

Worse yet, it turned out to be a "pants on fire" lie (WPost); the release was not during Sullivan's tenure in office and it was actually due to a paperwork error after Sullivan left. The family asked Begich to pull his attack ad (and for Sullivan to pull his counter ad). Sullivan complied, Begich did not. Then came a scathing and public letter denouncing Begich:

An elderly Alaskan couple was murdered last year. Their two-year-old granddaughter was raped. ...In a scathing cease-and-desist letter, the family’s attorney said Begich’s reelection campaign has “crossed the boundaries of decency, honor, and compassion.”

“You[r] campaign is playing pure politics at the expense of my clients, and frankly has done only what is in the best interests of ‘Mark Begich’ rather than protecting the victims of the most serious crime in Alaska history,” the attorney, Bryon Collins, wrote....

“You are tearing this family apart to the point that your ad was so shocking to them they now want to permanently leave the state as quickly as possible,” he wrote. “Again, to be perfectly clear, it was your ad that shocked them.”

He directly contrasted the reactions of the two campaigns, noting, “The Sullivan campaign immediately recognized that the right thing to do was take it down.”
The letter included a plea from the family, who worry that the politicization of the crime could prevent justice from being served.
“The reason I want the ad down is because we do not want it to interfere with the trial,” a family member said. “I do not want this or my family to be part of any campaign cause it’s pointless for us.”
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http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/03/begich-forced-to-pull-pants-on-fire-ad-in-alaska-senate-race/

In a tight race Begich made a major miscalculation.
 
And did I mention the debacle in Montana? The state’s Democratic governor appointed John Walsh, an Iraqi War veteran and member of the Army National Guard, to replace Baucus. Many thought he could be a firewall, preventing Republicans from taking the seat. Then came the revelation that he plagerized the majority of his War College Master's Thesis - he withdrew.

The Democratic state’s nominating convention chose State Rep. Amanda Curtis to replace him, turns out she is a left wing loon and is a huge mistake.
 
The common theme in these close races is that the Democrat hopes rely on voters not figuring out their candidates are Democrats.
 
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