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New Hampshire - The Dead Canary in Trump's Coalmine?

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Jimmy Higgins

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So, for those not from the northeast, there is a state in New England that is different from the surrounding ones. It is much more libertarian and other than the big ass whooping of '08, has remained a really close state over the years on Election Day, with W winning it by about 7000 thousand votes in 2000 (which also gave him the razor wire EV win) and Hillary Clinton won by less than 3000 votes. Their license plates "Live Free or Die", but my Dad always said it meant "Live Cheap or Die." The state is known as New Hampshire and polling in that state is diverging from recent history. While Clinton would manage a lead in September 2016 of around 7 or 8 points in aggregate, that lead subsided. Only Obama won it big in '08, where he won Indiana!

Biden? Is up about 10 points on aggregate, polling only once below 50% and generally having a range of 7 to 13 point lead. Only one poll in mid-September put the lead at 3 pts. Romney was leading in the polls this point in 2012, and Obama won by about 6 pts, so nothing is ever solid in politics, but at the moment, Biden has a very solid lead on a Libertarian state.

And in this election, the first Presidential election after state polls laid eggs in several states, we are desperate to find that canary. A 10 to 15 point win in New Hampshire would almost certainly imply victories in WI, MI, PA, where Trump is doing well. We definitely see contradicting signs in Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio and really have no idea what is going on in the heads of people in those states, other than Ann Selzer's 48-48 draw poll. But with the northern states, one has to wonder if it is possible to win NH by a good deal and not win PA and MI. Yes, Biden is polling well in PA and MI, which indicates something to be hopeful, but I'm more interesting in the canary. If Trump loses New Hampshire by 10 points or more, is it even possible to win the US Electoral College because that indicates too high of a percentage of conservatives or independents are swapping.

Or New Hampshire could have Biden like Johnson and then people change their minds in the voting booth.
 
538

New Hampshire - Biden is up by +11.3%. That is 4 electoral college votes.
Real Clear Politics has Biden up by +11.0% Way back in March, Biden lead by only +1.6%.
 
My state, Ohio, was in Trump's pocket at the start of last month. Most polls had Trump up by 5% over Joe. Last week I saw a poll with Joe up by 1%!!! It's a dead heat, but Ohio could just possibly redeem itself. (Our state legislature still might's well be from Kansas or Oklahoma. Sigh.)
 
538

Ohio - Biden is up +0.3%
Iowa - Biden is up +0.3%
Florida - Biden is up +4.1%

Real Clear Politics

Ohio - Biden is up +0.6%
Iowa - Biden is up +1.2%
Florida - Biden is up +2.7%

Slithering to the finish line in 18 days.
 
ideologyhunter said:
My state, Ohio, was in Trump's pocket at the start of last month. Most polls had Trump up by 5% over Joe. Last week I saw a poll with Joe up by 1%!!! It's a dead heat, but Ohio could just possibly redeem itself. (Our state legislature still might's well be from Kansas or Oklahoma. Sigh.)
Click to expand...
What do the signs in the yards say in your part of the state? I don't have to go far to see a good deal of Trump in the conservative portions of NE Ohio. I'm not sold at all that Ohio is in Biden's corner. I will gladly admit error, but unlike 2016, I haven't been out to the western counties to see whether the see of Trump signs have dissipated.
 
I'm seeing a lot of these, usually in front of an old person's home.

71KA8vNav9L._AC_SL1500_.jpg
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
ideologyhunter said:
My state, Ohio, was in Trump's pocket at the start of last month. Most polls had Trump up by 5% over Joe. Last week I saw a poll with Joe up by 1%!!! It's a dead heat, but Ohio could just possibly redeem itself. (Our state legislature still might's well be from Kansas or Oklahoma. Sigh.)
Click to expand...
What do the signs in the yards say in your part of the state? I don't have to go far to see a good deal of Trump in the conservative portions of NE Ohio. I'm not sold at all that Ohio is in Biden's corner. I will gladly admit error, but unlike 2016, I haven't been out to the western counties to see whether the see of Trump signs have dissipated.
Click to expand...
A mix. I don't drive nearly as much as I did before C-19, obviously. Joe signs are a lot more common than Hillary signs were in '16. Ohio's gonna be close -- so sweet if Trump loses it, so awful if we lose by a hair. That damn electoral college -- a narrow loss means my Presidential vote is null and void.
 
Acts 4
31 And when they had prayed, the place was shaken where they were assembled together; and they were all filled with the Holy Ghost, and they spake the word of God with boldness.
32 And the multitude of them that believed were of one heart and of one soul: neither said any of them that ought of the things which he possessed was his own; but they had all things common.
33 And with great power gave the apostles witness of the resurrection of the Lord Jesus: and great grace was upon them all.
34 Neither was there any among them that lacked: for as many as were possessors of lands or houses sold them, and brought the prices of the things that were sold,
35 And laid them down at the apostles' feet: and distribution was made unto every man according as he had need.

God is a Commie!
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Acts 4
31 And when they had prayed, the place was shaken where they were assembled together; and they were all filled with the Holy Ghost, and they spake the word of God with boldness.
32 And the multitude of them that believed were of one heart and of one soul: neither said any of them that ought of the things which he possessed was his own; but they had all things common.
33 And with great power gave the apostles witness of the resurrection of the Lord Jesus: and great grace was upon them all.
34 Neither was there any among them that lacked: for as many as were possessors of lands or houses sold them, and brought the prices of the things that were sold,
35 And laid them down at the apostles' feet: and distribution was made unto every man according as he had need.

God is a Commie!
Click to expand...

The Evangelical standard answer is that the early Christians were voluntarily participating in Communism. Whereas taking taxes to feed lazy people is involuntary and doesn't count.

Then they counter with their own clobber verse from St. Paul. 2 Thesselonians 3:10:

this we commanded you: that if any would not work, neither should he eat.
Click to expand...
 
Stalin modified the earlier version to the following:
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his work."
 
Stalin modified the earlier version to the following:
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his work."
 
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