Polls - Iowa - Huh?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Two polls were released back to back.

Emerson:

1. Sanders - 30%
2. Biden - 21%
3. Klobuchar - 13%
4. Warren - 11%
5. Buttigieg - 10%

USA Today:

1. Biden - 23%
2. Sanders - 19%
3. Buttigieg - 18%
4. Warren - 13%
5. Klobuchar - 6%

Feel free to be confused.

 

[Elixir]

Two polls were released back to back.

Emerson:

1. Sanders - 30%
2. Biden - 21%
3. Klobuchar - 13%
4. Warren - 11%
5. Buttigieg - 10%

USA Today:

1. Biden - 23%
2. Sanders - 19%
3. Buttigieg - 18%
4. Warren - 13%
5. Klobuchar - 6%

Feel free to be confused.

...and thus were aggregated polls born.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

The first poll was 450 people. 4.5% margin of error.

The second poll was 500 people. 4.4% magin of error.

Both polls did not poll a lot of people.

I will add some people were undecided. Perhaps that makes the margin of error larger?

Still, the Bernie numbers seem dramatically different.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Funnily enough, Sanders numbers in both polls are not in line with previous polls of mid 20s. Klobuchar is the huge difference. One poll has her fighting for her life... the other... in hospice. Buttigieg is also crazy volatile in those two polls.

 

[southernhybrid]

So, only a fool would believe that these polls are telling us much of anything. Plus, something like 40% of Democrats are saying that they haven't made up their minds yet as to who they will support. I guess we all just need to be patient and see how this plays out. The polls are just something to tease us with, or give us hope if our candidate it near or at the top. Who actually takes these polls? I simply ignored the call I received once when the caller ID said it was from the Democratic Party taking a poll. How many people even answer their phones unless it's someone they know? I sure don't. It seems to me as if polls are no longer consistently accurate.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I am adding Steyer, Yang, and Gabbard.

Emerson:

1. Sanders - 30%
2. Biden - 21%
3. Klobuchar - 13%
4. Warren - 11%
5. Buttigieg - 10%
6. Steyer - 5%
7. Yang - 5%
8. Gabbard - 5%

Total = 100%

USA Today:

1. Biden - 23%
2. Sanders - 19%
3. Buttigieg - 18%
4. Warren - 13%
5. Klobuchar - 6%
6. Yang - 3%
7. Steyer - 2%
8. Gabbard - 1%

Total = 85%

You will notice the numbers in the second poll do not add up to nearly 100. The article states that 13% of voters were undecided. So, I presume the question included a "not sure" option, unlike the first poll. Or there was some other related structural difference in the questions so that undecideds effected the total.

Additionally, I infer that since the difference in Bernie counts is so high between poll1 and poll2, higher than the margins of error account for, that far more undecideds lean toward Bernie. I suspect two recent events have effected these progressive voters: (a) they lost confidence in Warren's chances due to low polling and just are not sure if Bernie is the answer and (b) the all out negative campaigning and media blitz against Bernie has them shaken.

So, here also is an aggregate, at Elixir's "suggestion"...

Aggregate:

1. Sanders - 24%
2. Biden - 22%
3. Buttigieg - 14%
4. Warren - 12%
5. Klobuchar - 9%
6. Yang - 4%
7. Steyer - 3%
8. Gabbard - 3%

Total = 91%