Powerball and Extinction Events

[Jimmy Higgins]

So the Powerball jackpot is up to $700 million and an article noted that the odds of winning were "astronomical". Of course, someone (some people) always eventually win(s).

Which made me naturally think of extinction events. They happen, have happened on this planet several times over the Earth's existence. So I was wondering, how many planets with life are currently suffering from an extinction event right now, or how often does it occur. Obviously the math is a bit hard, not knowing how many planets there are, but I was even just curious how many planets suffer an astronomical event (asteroid impact) over a short period of time across the universe, that would otherwise have ended a large portion of life on a planet.

After all, they aren't common, but eventually they do occur.

 

[Malintent]

So the Powerball jackpot is up to $700 million and an article noted that the odds of winning were "astronomical". Of course, someone (some people) always eventually win(s).

Which made me naturally think of extinction events. They happen, have happened on this planet several times over the Earth's existence. So I was wondering, how many planets with life are currently suffering from an extinction event right now, or how often does it occur. Obviously the math is a bit hard, not knowing how many planets there are, but I was even just curious how many planets suffer an astronomical event (asteroid impact) over a short period of time across the universe, that would otherwise have ended a large portion of life on a planet.

After all, they aren't common, but eventually they do occur.

The Fermi Paradox addresses this well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Basically, given deep time, and an assumption on the probability of life arising on a planet, where are all the aliens zipping around? There should be observable congested interstellar traffic.

Solutions to the paradox include the notion that extinction events prevent any civilization from technologically advancing that far... and even further, that the steps needed to achieve such technology itself is highly probable to cause an extinction event...

Like, for example, if it takes a gigantic nuclear bomb to be able to leave our own star system, then attempts at making such a bomb might inevitably destroy the planet...

 

[Treedbear]

So the Powerball jackpot is up to $700 million and an article noted that the odds of winning were "astronomical". Of course, someone (some people) always eventually win(s). ...

...
Like, for example, if it takes a gigantic nuclear bomb to be able to leave our own star system, then attempts at making such a bomb might inevitably destroy the planet...

It just goes to show that intelligence might not be the best indicator of long term survival. But most extinction events (notwithstanding the occasional asteroid impact) probably aren't as abrupt as that. They happen one lottery ticket at a time.

 

[Treedbear]

...
Which made me naturally think of extinction events. They happen, have happened on this planet several times over the Earth's existence. So I was wondering, how many planets with life are currently suffering from an extinction event right now, or how often does it occur. Obviously the math is a bit hard, not knowing how many planets there are, but I was even just curious how many planets suffer an astronomical event (asteroid impact) over a short period of time across the universe, that would otherwise have ended a large portion of life on a planet. ...

It got me thinking of supernovae as extinction events that have a wider effect. So I looked it up ("How close would a supernova have to be to destroy life on Earth?"):

... were a supernova to go off within about 30 light years of us, that would lead to major effects on the Earth, possibly mass extinctions. X-rays and more energetic gamma-rays from the supernova could destroy the ozone layer that protects us from solar ultraviolet rays. It also could ionize nitrogen and oxygen in the atmosphere, leading to the formation of large amounts of smog-like nitrous oxide in the atmosphere.

“Supernovae happen about once every 100 years in the Milky Way. But the Milky Way is a big place, roughly 100,000 light years across. Given that, and the fact that the Sun is near the outskirts of the Milky Way where few stars massive enough to become supernovae are born, having a supernova within 30 light years of the Sun should, on average, happen only once in every 100 million years.”

Counting up the stars within 30 ly of the Sun (from the links found in "Lists of stars") comes to about 265. This isn't typical to all starts in the galaxy, but it might represent the habitable zone. So if a supernova occurred where the Sun is now it would cause extinction on the proportion of planets that contain life on up to 265 planetary systems. And that occurs somewhere in the galaxy about once every 100 years.

 

[Keith&Co.]

After all, they aren't common, but eventually they do occur.

I dunno about common...
A brief study of the distribution of birthdays shows that events aren't evenly distributed across time. So they're going to be more frequent on some worlds than on others. Maybe even common, somewhere. Deep in the galaxy, maybe? Or a binary system where the sun seems to break up planets for the express purpose of slinging the bits at other planets..

Which makes me imagine that there's at least one world out there... Well, you know those pinecones that need a forest fire in order to open? Imagine a planet where the life forms have evolved to DEPEND ON what we would call extinction events.

They can't compete until the biosphere gets kicked in the teeth...

 

[Treedbear]

 

[LordKiran]

So the Powerball jackpot is up to $700 million and an article noted that the odds of winning were "astronomical". Of course, someone (some people) always eventually win(s).

Which made me naturally think of extinction events. They happen, have happened on this planet several times over the Earth's existence. So I was wondering, how many planets with life are currently suffering from an extinction event right now, or how often does it occur. Obviously the math is a bit hard, not knowing how many planets there are, but I was even just curious how many planets suffer an astronomical event (asteroid impact) over a short period of time across the universe, that would otherwise have ended a large portion of life on a planet.

After all, they aren't common, but eventually they do occur.

The Fermi Paradox addresses this well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Basically, given deep time, and an assumption on the probability of life arising on a planet, where are all the aliens zipping around? There should be observable congested interstellar traffic.

Solutions to the paradox include the notion that extinction events prevent any civilization from technologically advancing that far... and even further, that the steps needed to achieve such technology itself is highly probable to cause an extinction event...

Like, for example, if it takes a gigantic nuclear bomb to be able to leave our own star system, then attempts at making such a bomb might inevitably destroy the planet...

It might also just not be practically possible for living organisms to leave their home systems ever.

 

[Elixir]

I tend to believe the "intelligence as a lethal mutation" hypothesis.
(Ernst Mayr)

 

[repoman]

Most mass extinctions except the dinosaur killer involved carbon dioxide usually going but at least once going down (that is when new land plants caused strong weathering and CO2 storage).

This CO2 boost was caused by luck of the draw bursts of strong volcanism of carbon rich crust. The current recycling crust is carbon poor. Atlantic crust which is not is carbon rich.

Then the massive amount of CO2 release causes a lot of other events to unfold including dead oceans and sulfur spewing bacteria.

 

[LordKiran]

Most mass extinctions except the dinosaur killer involved carbon dioxide usually going but at least once going down (that is when new land plants caused strong weathering and CO2 storage).

This CO2 boost was caused by luck of the draw bursts of strong volcanism of carbon rich crust. The current recycling crust is carbon poor. Atlantic crust which is not is carbon rich.

Then the massive amount of CO2 release causes a lot of other events to unfold including dead oceans and sulfur spewing bacteria.

The important thing to remember though is that climate change is not a permanent condition but a continually evolving set of circumstances and we CAN make a difference if we decide to put our resources to it. At the very least it cant be any more wasteful than pointless wars overseas.