Primaries Today

[Derec]

So several states are having primaries today. Here is Georgia, there is a 5-way race for Republican nomination to replace retiring Senator Saxby Chamblis (R). David Perdue, a businessman with no electoral experience, has been leading recent polls, but not nearly close enough to avoid a runoff. So, a battle for 2nd place is shaping up between long-term Congressman Jack Kingston and former Secretary of State Karen Handel (both 17% in the most recent poll). Paul Broun ("evolution is a lie from hell") and Phil Gingrey, both congressmen, failed to gain much traction so Karen Handel is the great hope of the Tea Party, being endorsed by Palin and Santorum as well as Tea Party Express. You may also know her from the Komen Breast Cancer controversy. The eventual nominee will face off against Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn. Given that this is a Republican seat and the primary election polls have been quite close this is one of the few races where Dems could have a Senate pickup this Fall.

Speaking of political dynasties, Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, is running unopposed to challenge Republican Governor Nathan Deal in the Fall.

Anybody else live in states with interesting primary races today?

 

[SimpleDon]

Purdue, a hotel executive, and Kingston are in the Republican runoff. This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall. She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey. I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

The Democrats will have to wait for more of a demographic shift and a presidential year before they have a chance at a state wide office in Georgia. They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

 

[funinspace]

Looks like more steam is evacuating from the tempest in the TeaPot:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/tea-party-over-as-business-wins-republican-primaries.html

The Tea Party is pretty much over for the 2014 midterm elections, with the limited-government movement losing four of yesterday’s most closely watched races in Republican primaries from Georgia to Idaho.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In Washington state, Wehber, the Republican won the Republican primary. She has been accused of stalking an ex-husband and a boyfriend. This could be an interesting and entertaining race

 

[funinspace]

In Washington state, Wehber, the Republican won the Republican primary. She has been accused of stalking an ex-husband and a boyfriend. This could be an interesting and entertaining race

I think you mean Oregon & Wehby, unless there are two stalker women running for Senate...tis always possible with Repugs, as they are a strange breed.

 

[Duke Leto]

Purdue, a hotel executive, and Kingston are in the Republican runoff. This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall. She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey. I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

The Democrats will have to wait for more of a demographic shift and a presidential year before they have a chance at a state wide office in Georgia. They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

Have you looked at the polls of Nunn head to head with Kingston and Perdue? Most of the ones conducted two weeks ago have her winning or tied.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Looks like more steam is evacuating from the tempest in the TeaPot:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/tea-party-over-as-business-wins-republican-primaries.html

The Tea Party is pretty much over for the 2014 midterm elections, with the limited-government movement losing four of yesterday’s most closely watched races in Republican primaries from Georgia to Idaho.

I don't think so. The Tea Party candidates aren't losing because the GOP primary voters are abandoning them, they're losing because the "mainstream" GOP candidates are running hard to the right and embracing all the Tea Party principles. The results are good news for the Tea Party.

 

[Derec]

Purdue, a hotel executive, and Kingston are in the Republican runoff.

I do not think he ever was a hotel exec, but he was CEO of Reebok and Dollar General among others and is part of Georgia Port Authority. So a varied business resume but no elected office background.
Jack Kingston is the opposite - a career politician who has been in Congress since 1993.

This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall.

I do not think so. Recent polls are still close and Nunn is slightly ahead with her doing better against Kingston, who is favored to win the runoff. This runoff, described as "nasty brutish and long" by Politico should help Nunn as well.
Georgia and Kentucky are the only two real chances for Dem pickups in 2014, and I think Georgia looks better at this time. Incidentally, they both are in favor of the Keystone XL pipeline.

She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey.

Maybe, but that is one of those "be careful what you wish for" type of things.

I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

I think Handel might have proven more formidable than either Kingston or Perdue.

They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

That is true. In 2010 Dems ran Roy Barnes, a former governor who previously (2002) lost reelection bid against David Perdue's cousin Sonny (politics is not only a family business for Democrats in Georgia) for example.

 

[boneyard bill]

Purdue, a hotel executive, and Kingston are in the Republican runoff. This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall. She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey. I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

The Democrats will have to wait for more of a demographic shift and a presidential year before they have a chance at a state wide office in Georgia. They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

I wouldn't write Nunn off so soon. The polls I have seen show her running about even with any Republican candidate. An inexperienced newcomer like Perdue may actually be more gaffe-prone than veteran Congressmen like Broun or Gingrey. But they fell out of favor a long time ago anyway.

Bad news for Republicans is that they still have to go through another grueling, and possibly divisive, primary before they actually know who their candidate will be.

I don't think Nunn will win, but the reason I don't is that I expect the economy to get even worse between now and election day so you can take a few points off the polling numbers for just about any Democrat at this point in the race.

 

[SimpleDon]

Purdue, a hotel executive, and Kingston are in the Republican runoff. This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall. She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey. I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

The Democrats will have to wait for more of a demographic shift and a presidential year before they have a chance at a state wide office in Georgia. They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

Have you looked at the polls of Nunn head to head with Kingston and Perdue? Most of the ones conducted two weeks ago have her winning or tied.

No, I didn't see them. I don't pay much attention to the polls for November at this point. But I would be impressed if she would be able to win the November election. Democrats normally don't turn out for midterm elections. The last time was 2006.

 

[SimpleDon]

I do not think he ever was a hotel exec, but he was CEO of Reebok and Dollar General among others and is part of Georgia Port Authority. So a varied business resume but no elected office background.
Jack Kingston is the opposite - a career politician who has been in Congress since 1993.

This kills any real chance of Nunn winning in the fall.

I do not think so. Recent polls are still close and Nunn is slightly ahead with her doing better against Kingston, who is favored to win the runoff. This runoff, described as "nasty brutish and long" by Politico should help Nunn as well.
Georgia and Kentucky are the only two real chances for Dem pickups in 2014, and I think Georgia looks better at this time. Incidentally, they both are in favor of the Keystone XL pipeline.

She entered the race in the hope that the Republicans would nominate one of the two bat shit crazy tea partiers, Broun or Gingrey.

Maybe, but that is one of those "be careful what you wish for" type of things.

I don't think that she world have had that much of a chance against the moderately sane tea partier, Handel.

I think Handel might have proven more formidable than either Kingston or Perdue.

They are also somewhat short of qualified candidates, as the wins of Nunn and Carter show. Both are just trading on their famous names.

That is true. In 2010 Dems ran Roy Barnes, a former governor who previously (2002) lost reelection bid against David Perdue's cousin Sonny (politics is not only a family business for Democrats in Georgia) for example.

I have to admit that I haven't been following politics that closely yet. I thought that Purdue was part of the Day's Inn family. At least I didn't confuse him with the chicken Purdues!

I didn't wish for either of the two crazy candidates to win the primary. I am not that cynical yet!

I support Keystone too, so that is no problem for me. I am an electrical engineer and I own a part of a producing oil well in North Texas, all that is left of a family farm. So I understand and I am not afraid of the technology of an oil pipeline.

 

[Derec]

I wouldn't write Nunn off so soon. The polls I have seen show her running about even with any Republican candidate. An inexperienced newcomer like Perdue may actually be more gaffe-prone than veteran Congressmen like Broun or Gingrey. But they fell out of favor a long time ago anyway.

Well it's hard to top Broun's statement that evolution, embryology and Big Bang were lies straight from the pit of Hell. Nevertheless, Purdue did make a swipe at Handel not having a college degree, which might have been what propelled her within striking distance of the runoff. But, as the Germans say knapp daneben ist auch vorbei (a near miss is still a miss).

I don't think Nunn will win, but the reason I don't is that I expect the economy to get even worse between now and election day so you can take a few points off the polling numbers for just about any Democrat at this point in the race.

Is that going to be before or after India becomes a dominant world power I wonder?

No, I didn't see them. I don't pay much attention to the polls for November at this point. But I would be impressed if she would be able to win the November election. Democrats normally don't turn out for midterm elections. The last time was 2006.

All those things are against the Dem winning the Senate seat for sure. But nevertheless polls look good for Nunn. Rasmussen poll from Friday for example puts her 3 points ahead of Perdue and 6 points ahead of Kingston. Early days for sure, but it bears noting that "Democrats normally don't turn out for midterm elections" would have been considered in the model the pollsters use. They do not just report raw numbers but fit them to their turnout models, which might be good or bad predictions (see 2012 where differences in polls stemmed from different turnout models different outfits favored) but they all implement well-known facts like this.

I have to admit that I haven't been following politics that closely yet. I thought that Purdue was part of the Day's Inn family. At least I didn't confuse him with the chicken Purdues!

Don't even know abut "Days Inn Perdues" or the "chicken Perdues". Didn't know anything about David Perdue either until I looked him up in the run-up to the primaries.

I support Keystone too, so that is no problem for me. I am an electrical engineer and I own a part of a producing oil well in North Texas, all that is left of a family farm. So I understand and I am not afraid of the technology of an oil pipeline.

Good.