I feel like four months is a lifetime in politics, but fivethirtyeight is forecasting a Republican win
2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 midterm elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast! We’ve got a bit of a split diagnosis in this election: Republicans are favored to win the House, while the Senate is a toss-up. How can this be? Well, as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes in his overview of the forecast, the national environment doesn’t look good for Democrats, which is why we expect Republicans to make gains in the House — even though those gains might not be historic. But in the Senate, candidate quality matters a lot more, and this could prove to be a silver lining for Democrats. It’s a similar story in the 36 races for governor.