Republicans likely to win the House and Senate in 2022 midterms

[Metaphor]

I feel like four months is a lifetime in politics, but fivethirtyeight is forecasting a Republican win

2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 midterm elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast! We’ve got a bit of a split diagnosis in this election: Republicans are favored to win the House, while the Senate is a toss-up. How can this be? Well, as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes in his overview of the forecast, the national environment doesn’t look good for Democrats, which is why we expect Republicans to make gains in the House — even though those gains might not be historic. But in the Senate, candidate quality matters a lot more, and this could prove to be a silver lining for Democrats. It’s a similar story in the 36 races for governor.

 

[Patooka]

A lot of people have been saying that. From the outside looking in, I'll point out there has been no Tea Party-esque movement this US election cycle compared to the last time a Democrat transition occurred. In fact, I would argue that there is significant motivation for a US Senate to remain Dem considering the current climate. There's also that minor Jan6 thing but I think everyone, yourself included, made their minds up a while ago so that isn't a thing.

And of course, Hunter Biden owned a fucking laptop or something so who the fuck knows.

 

[ZiprHead]

Moreover, a series of generic congressional polls since Dobbs shows Democrats in a much better position than just a month or so ago. Polls from both Yahoo News-YouGov and NPR-Marist put Democrats up seven points above Republicans, and Morning Consult puts them up three points. Enthusiasm for voting among pro-choice voters seems to be up as well. Pollsters and analysts have noticed the development. Unsurprisingly, Democrats are more sunny about it; Republicans are essentially responding with “move along, nothing to see here.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/30/democrats-polling-improves-dobbs-abortion-supreme-court-ruling/