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Tariffs

Jolly_Penguin

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What is your opinion on Tariffs?

We have seen both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump speak loudly against NAFTA this election cycle, and according to Michael Moore, Trump stood in front of auto companies and said "if you close these factories as you're planning to do in Detroit and build them in Mexico, I'm going to put a 35% tariff on those cars when you send them back and nobody's going to buy them."

Is that a good idea? Or would it just make things worse?
 
I'd really recommend separating a discussion of tariffs/trade agreements away from Trump's ideas. His ideas, as can loosely described are a jumbled mess. Most of the manufacturing jobs that he is talking about leaving, have already left. So his ideas are largely BS for the masses. Additionally, his notions are way too complicated. Who is to track, and then individually charge companies these special tariffs. I can imagine the court fights over which imports, by US companies that exported work out, should be hit by some new law that would first have to get thru Congress. What if they just decide to buy a completed product from a third company and brand it their own; and then discontinue their own product. Did they outsource?

Another issue is about how many new jobs/manufacturing would be initiated outside of the US for a brand new product, just to preclude having any issues if a company later wants to change where it is produced. Hypothetically, lets say Apple Inc. wants to finally build a new widget themselves and had initially planned to put the plant in Georgia. Now with the new Trump Tariff law, they might decide to do the initial build in Mexico just to be safe, thereby avoiding the new tariff and retaining their manufacturing flexibility.
 
We have seen both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump speak loudly against NAFTA this election cycle

Trump, Sanders, Clinton are all guilty of outdated mercantilist fallacy rhetoric.

Another of the ways in which the fact these are the choices in this election boggles the mind.
 
It's populist garbage.

There's no real reason for tariffs--what tariffs really say is that one's currency is too valuable. Balance of trade issues should fix themselves by the currencies adjusting until the net money flow is about zero.
 
It is populist garage. Loren is right about that. But not for the reason that our currency is too valuable, as Loren believes.

The Constitution places treaties above the laws passed by Congress and second only to the US Constitution itself as laws that we must follow. The only way that we could pass a tariff not allowed by a trade treaty is to renegotiate the treaty with the other countries that signed it and to pass it through the confirmation process in the US Senate, which requires a 2/3rds super majority.

In other words it would be impossible. Basically it would be closing the barn door after the horses got out.

The opening of our markets was done to suppress the wages in the US to increase profits and to increase the incomes of the already rich. It exposed the wages of the US workers to competition from the low wage countries like Mexico and China. It is the largest foreign aid program in history that has transferred trillions of dollars out of the US economy in lost wages, and it caused widespread unemployment in the US, as the good paying jobs left.

It was done in the name of neoliberalism and its economics, supply side economics, that was suppose to build our economy by making more money available for investment in our economy. It boosted the economy of China but our economy is in worse shape than it was under the previous Keynesian economic policies. We have many supporters of neoliberalism here including Jolly the author of the OP, Loren, Auxlus, Trausti, maxparrish, etc., and all of our libertarians, Jason, dismal, skepticalbhp, coloradoatheist, etc. Perhaps one of them can explain why they supported these idiotic policies and treaties. I hate to be this way, but, I told you so.
 
It is populist garage. Loren is right about that. But not for the reason that our currency is too valuable, as Loren believes.

The Constitution places treaties above the laws passed by Congress and second only to the US Constitution itself as laws that we must follow. The only way that we could pass a tariff not allowed by a trade treaty is to renegotiate the treaty with the other countries that signed it and to pass it through the confirmation process in the US Senate, which requires a 2/3rds super majority.

Which is why big business is so interested in getting it's wishes into treaties rather than laws.
 
It was done in the name of neoliberalism and its economics, supply side economics, that was suppose to build our economy by making more money available for investment in our economy. It boosted the economy of China but our economy is in worse shape than it was under the previous Keynesian economic policies. We have many supporters of neoliberalism here including Jolly the author of the OP, Loren, Auxlus, Trausti, maxparrish, etc., and all of our libertarians, Jason, dismal, skepticalbhp, coloradoatheist, etc. Perhaps one of them can explain why they supported these idiotic policies and treaties. I hate to be this way, but, I told you so.

I had to go look that up. According to the dictionary I consulted:

Neoliberaism: A political theory of the late 1900s holding that personal liberty is maximized by limiting government interference in the operation of free markets.

So basically what Bill Clinton was doing with NAFTA etc? Why are you declaring that I subscribe to that? Merely because I asked the question in the OP? Or it is because I have been a strong advocate for Bernie Sanders?
 
Why are you declaring that I subscribe to that?

We have been watching you and noticed that you choose to raise your living standard by only doing work in which you have specialized and then using the proceeds of that work to trade for things which you are less advantaged in producing like food, clothes and automobiles. You could be maximizing your labor hours by making your own food, clothes and automobiles yourself, you neoliberal swine.
 
It is populist garage. Loren is right about that. But not for the reason that our currency is too valuable, as Loren believes.

The Constitution places treaties above the laws passed by Congress and second only to the US Constitution itself as laws that we must follow. The only way that we could pass a tariff not allowed by a trade treaty is to renegotiate the treaty with the other countries that signed it and to pass it through the confirmation process in the US Senate, which requires a 2/3rds super majority.

In other words it would be impossible. Basically it would be closing the barn door after the horses got out.

The opening of our markets was done to suppress the wages in the US to increase profits and to increase the incomes of the already rich. It exposed the wages of the US workers to competition from the low wage countries like Mexico and China. It is the largest foreign aid program in history that has transferred trillions of dollars out of the US economy in lost wages, and it caused widespread unemployment in the US, as the good paying jobs left.

It was done in the name of neoliberalism and its economics, supply side economics, that was suppose to build our economy by making more money available for investment in our economy. It boosted the economy of China but our economy is in worse shape than it was under the previous Keynesian economic policies. We have many supporters of neoliberalism here including Jolly the author of the OP, Loren, Auxlus, Trausti, maxparrish, etc., and all of our libertarians, Jason, dismal, skepticalbhp, coloradoatheist, etc. Perhaps one of them can explain why they supported these idiotic policies and treaties. I hate to be this way, but, I told you so.

+1 This.
 
Most of the manufacturing jobs that he is talking about leaving, have already left.
I do not agree with this.

Regardless of your views on trade, it IS possible to bring back jobs that have left. Whether or not it would be worth it or whether it would help is a matter of discussion. But bringing those jobs back is not. What left this country can be brought back with nothing more than proper tax code. The other Asian countries have done it to us and we could do it back to them if wanted.
 
I had to go look that up. According to the dictionary I consulted:

Neoliberaism: A political theory of the late 1900s holding that personal liberty is maximized by limiting government interference in the operation of free markets.

So basically what Bill Clinton was doing with NAFTA etc? Why are you declaring that I subscribe to that? Merely because I asked the question in the OP? Or it is because I have been a strong advocate for Bernie Sanders?

You aren't a neoliberal? You don't believe in the self-regulating free market? You accept that the government has to intervene in the economy? Including organizing and policing the economy, establishing and applying externalities on the market for pollution control, and product, worker and child safety and the intentional redistribution of income?

Welcome to the empirically based rational world. Neoliberalism is based on fantasies. I am sorry that I smeared you by calling you a neoliberal.

Cut and paste of a previous post on the origins of neoliberalism.


Neoliberalism goes back considerably further back than the late 1900's. The "neoliberal" label was first used in the late 1930's by two Austrian/Libertarian economists, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich August von Hayek, to describe their political and economic movement. A movement founded largely to counter the large and growing acceptance of Keynesian economics, based on John Maynard Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

They were joined in the late 1940's by Milton Friedman. Neoliberalism is now the basis for no less than all of movement conservativism's and the Republican party's economic policies as well as those of the unthinking Washington consensus, which includes a distressing number of Democrats, including the Clintons.

Their neoliberalism would be more properly called "neo-classical liberal" economics, because they went back to the economics of the classical liberal period, that applied the theories of the classical economists, Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, Say, etc. and the classical liberal philosophers and enlightenment thinkers, Adam Smith again, Locke, Hobbs, Voltaire, JS Mill, Kant, Bertram, etc. to the economy in England starting with the repeal of the so-called Corn Laws, protective tariffs on imported grain and the repeal of the Poor laws and open welfare, payments to the poor, all in the 1830's.

From Wikipedia,

Classical liberalism is a political ideology and a branch of liberalism which advocates civil liberties and political freedom with representative democracy under the rule of law and emphasizes economic freedom.

The classical liberals wanted to establish not only an economy based on a self-regulating market, but an entire society based on markets.

The pertinent tenets of classical liberalism to neoliberalism are quite familiar to modern ears largely because of the success of the Neoliberal Thought Collective started by Mises and Hayek in Paris in 1938. They are,

  • Free trade and open borders including the free movement of capital, that is, money.
  • A true labor market.
  • A strict gold standard for money.
All of these are wrong, of course, but classical liberalism held sway in academic economics and political economics through the turn of the century, until it was at least partially displaced by its successor, neoclassical economics. It along with neoclassical economics caused massive damage to economies of all of the major countries being to blame for countless panics or depressions up to and including the Great Depression, as well as being a large contributor to both world was.

A large number of the faithful of the fantasy of the free market call themselves classical liberals today, largely libertarians that want understandably to disassociate themselves from the libertarian label.

==================================​


So basically what Bill Clinton was doing with NAFTA etc?

Bill Clinton was operating on neoliberal principles when he signed NAFTA and when he started the deregulation of the banks and the broader financial sector. In all of these he was wrong.

Once again. I am sorry that I included you in such poor company.
 
It is populist garage. Loren is right about that. But not for the reason that our currency is too valuable, as Loren believes.

The Constitution places treaties above the laws passed by Congress and second only to the US Constitution itself as laws that we must follow. The only way that we could pass a tariff not allowed by a trade treaty is to renegotiate the treaty with the other countries that signed it and to pass it through the confirmation process in the US Senate, which requires a 2/3rds super majority.

Which is why big business is so interested in getting it's wishes into treaties rather than laws.

Yes, this correct. This is why they and absolutely no one else is so interested in passing the Trans-Pacific trade treaties. They will allow a business friendly panel to set aside regulations that burden a company's competitiveness.
 
Tariffs paid for the government for almost 150 years years. Frree trade and a tax on income are relatively new things.
Other countries protect their economies with either tariffs or a VAT tax.
Among major economies I think only the US allows direct competition with workers making a dollar a day in third world countries, and actually subsidizes or gives tax breaks to companies relocating overseas.
 
Once again. I am sorry that I included you in such poor company.

I am just curious how I gave that impression in the first place. Perhaps it is because I have argued against a minimum wage and instead in favour of universal basic income (through reverse taxation using the same infrastructure)? Would that make me a Neo-Liberal?
 
Bill Clinton was operating on neoliberal principles when he signed NAFTA and when he started the deregulation of the banks and the broader financial sector. In all of these he was wrong.

Once again. I am sorry that I included you in such poor company.

NAFTA was signed by George Bush on December 17, 1992. Not Clinton.
 
Most of the manufacturing jobs that he is talking about leaving, have already left.
I do not agree with this.

Regardless of your views on trade, it IS possible to bring back jobs that have left. Whether or not it would be worth it or whether it would help is a matter of discussion. But bringing those jobs back is not. What left this country can be brought back with nothing more than proper tax code. The other Asian countries have done it to us and we could do it back to them if wanted.

No--you're mixing up bringing the manufacturing back with bringing the jobs back. Some of the manufacturing is already coming back--but the jobs aren't coming with it. Rather, it's far more mechanized.

A simple example: I have spent basically my entire career programming for the cabinet industry. I have spent many hours on the factory floor of a high tech cabinet outfit. Some years ago I found myself on the factory floor of a Chinese woodworking place--and I didn't even realize it. There were a few power tools you might find in the garage of a DIY woodworker, a few hand tools. I thought I was in a storage area (there was a lot of stock there), not the production area.

Over the 20 years with my former employer the productivity to worker ratio went up at least 4x. The outfit I work for now is smaller and outsources parts of the job so I can't make a good comparison but I think the ratio is even higher.
 
Most of the manufacturing jobs that he is talking about leaving, have already left.
I do not agree with this

FRED suggests that it is true, though per capita manufacturing employment could always start falling again. Either way it would be harder for any more steep declines like in the past, as it would then approach zero.
fredgraph.jpg
 
Tariffs paid for the government for almost 150 years years. Frree trade and a tax on income are relatively new things.
Other countries protect their economies with either tariffs or a VAT tax.
Among major economies I think only the US allows direct competition with workers making a dollar a day in third world countries, and actually subsidizes or gives tax breaks to companies relocating overseas.

Europe is even worse. Companies such as Cadbury were paid a grant by the EU to relocate out of the UK. Then there were no tarrifs as the UK is still in the EU
 
Our living standard is higher because we opened our markets.

And record-low inflation.

The opening of our markets was done to suppress the wages in the US to increase profits and to increase the incomes of the already rich.

The actual result was to increase the standard of living of everyone by keeping down prices for ALL consumers, which is the whole country. 300,000,000 consumers vs. a few million wage-earners who might have got hurt in the increased competition, like low-performing companies are sometimes hurt by the competition.


It exposed the wages of the US workers to competition from the low wage countries like Mexico and China.

Good! More competition makes 300 million consumers better off.


It is the largest foreign aid program in history that has transferred trillions of dollars out of the US economy in lost wages, . . .

But that's a subsidy to US consumers and a cost imposed onto the consumers in those countries exporting to the US. So there's no net transfer either way. Except that the general standard of living is higher in the US. And some of those countries are shooting themselves in the foot by forcing their consumers to pay higher prices.

. . . and it caused widespread unemployment in the US, as the good paying jobs left.

Just like with automation, the uncompetitive overpaid jobs can decrease, as we get more competitive production and improve the service to consumers. That can come at the cost of some lost jobs which were uncompetitive and overpaid. ("good paying jobs" = uncompetitive overpaid jobs)

The idea that somehow "good-paying jobs" are automatically better is bone-headed nonsense. To be better they also have to be high-value-producing jobs where the wage is a result ONLY of the higher value of the worker and not an artificial subsidy such as from protectionism or other ways to artificially prop up wages. When you overpay someone -- pay them more than their value -- that's "good-paying" but not good for the economy, because it's bad for consumers, which is ALL of us.


It was done in the name of neoliberalism and its economics, supply side economics, that was suppose to build our economy by making more money available for investment in our economy.

No, it was done in the name of a higher standard of living, which comes from increased competition as a result of more trade.


It boosted the economy of China but our economy is in worse shape than it was under the previous Keynesian economic policies.

Keynes was mostly pro-free-trade. But if we connect Keynes with debt, which he favored, the economy is more Keynesian today than ever.

If anything has gone wrong with the economy (or is going to go wrong, like a coming CRASH!), it's more likely a result of the high debt rather than trade policy.


I hate to be this way, but, I told you so.

So you predicted this good windfall consumers have been enjoying as a result of these liberal trade policies? You're right -- consumers (ALL of us) have never had it so good.

And the record-low inflation is phenomenal. The Fed has trouble trying to PUSH UP the inflation rate, whereas in earlier times, before so much trade, they had trouble trying to control it.

So, GOOD FOR YOU if you predicted all these great benefits we're enjoying as a result opening our markets. And watch prices soar, and living standard fall, if whichever demagogue wins puts Bernie's ideas into practice (as they are threatening but maybe won't do because they are only pandering to crybabies in the Rustbelt for their votes).
 
Tariffs paid for the government for almost 150 years years. Frree trade and a tax on income are relatively new things.
Other countries protect their economies with either tariffs or a VAT tax.
Among major economies I think only the US allows direct competition with workers making a dollar a day in third world countries, and actually subsidizes or gives tax breaks to companies relocating overseas.

Europe is even worse. Companies such as Cadbury were paid a grant by the EU to relocate out of the UK.
Hmm.. really? Direct subsidy of relocations is against EU rules. More likely either (i) companies which have at some time obtained EU grants have also relocated or (ii) destination countries have attracted inward investment with EU grants obtained by regional development agencies and suchlike.

The latter is arguably an indirect subsidy of relocation, but it's an open question as to whether the UK has been a net winner or loser.

Then there were no tarrifs as the UK is still in the EU
Then there were tariffs as stuff coming into the EU is subject to them, absent trade deals with the EU. That's why a post-Brexit deal is such a big deal. And it's looking -ironically- like we won't get one without free movement of people.

Apart from that, the rules in post-Brexit UK will be set by even more neoliberal institutions than the EU, which oppose tariffs on principle.
 
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