The early century issue

[SLD]

In reviewing history over long periods, it almost always seems to be that massive changes often happen towards the latter half of the century. Take the Glorious Revolution of 1688. The US revolution of 1776. The French Revolution of 1792. The US Civil War of the 1860's. The Civil Rights movement of the 1960's. The Russian Revolution of 1991. The technological surge of the last half of the 20th century. And speaking of technology, it was the last half of the 19th century that saw the invention of the light bulb, telephone, automobile and almost the airplane.

It seems that liberal and progressive ideas seem to do well at the end of such eras, and conservative ideas seem to predominate in the early part of the century. Although there are obvious exceptions and that's a broad generalization. But in the early part of centuries we've seen obvious retrenchment such as the establishment of Jim Crow in the early 20th century, the Napoleonic wars and re-establishment of Monarchy in France in the early 1800's. In the 20th century we've had horrible wars in the early part, and that pattern has somewhat happened again in the 21st - albeit not nearly as bad.

The election on Tuesday seems to confirm this retrenchment too. I think that's what we're experiencing. I wish I could live long enough to see the progressive surge at the end of this century. But I hope it will come.

SLD

 

[rjh01]

Or is it something else? A lot happened in the first half of the 20th century. For example death of Queen Vic; First ever flight; World War 1. And that is only the first 14 years.

 

[EricK]

I think you're cherry-picking. What about the Russian revolution of 1917? Or Magna Carta?

And I note you say "almost the airplane" - but that is because the airplane was actually invented in the early years of the next century! You could equally say that the car was almost invented in the early part of the 19th Century eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Rivaz_engine. And you don't mention computers which should either go into the first half of the 19th Century (Babbage) or the first half of the 20th Century.

 

[skepticalbip]

I think you're cherry-picking. What about the Russian revolution of 1917? Or Magna Carta?

And I note you say "almost the airplane" - but that is because the airplane was actually invented in the early years of the next century! You could equally say that the car was almost invented in the early part of the 19th Century eg .

But the 1917 revolution was almost in the last half of nineteenth century and the Magna Carta in 1215 was almost in the last half of the twelfth century. Then the Communist Manifesto published in 1848 was almost in the last half of the 19th century.

 

[SLD]

I think you're cherry-picking. What about the Russian revolution of 1917? Or Magna Carta?

And I note you say "almost the airplane" - but that is because the airplane was actually invented in the early years of the next century! You could equally say that the car was almost invented in the early part of the 19th Century eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Rivaz_engine. And you don't mention computers which should either go into the first half of the 19th Century (Babbage) or the first half of the 20th Century.

Well, maybe. But exact timing isn't what I meant. It's not like everything stops at '00. So the invention of the airplane isn't surprising at 1903. And again, I admit it's a broad generalization with exceptions. But the first part of the 20th century could hardly be deemed a progressive period, when it was marred by one of the worst periods of conflict in history. The first part of the 19th century saw the Naploeonic wars, followed by a period of relative quiescence. The US was also relative quiescent and little progress was made on such things as civil liberties. Although the beginnings of the anti slavery were slowly stirring in the north. The same pattern seems to be true now. Since the start of the 21st century, we've found ourselves mired in war, and now in xenophobic retrenchment. That also happened in the early 20th century in the US. While early in the century, mass immigration continued, there were rising voices of xenophobia against it and ultimately the US started to impose massive restrictions on immigration and trade. That may be one of the real causes of the Second World War.

But it's not like all progress stops. And I don't think we should be disheartened by the recent election of Trump. In the long run we will reject his brand, and return to a progressive democracy. But it just may take a while. And I fear what we will have to go through to get there.

As for the Russian Revolution, I'm not sure if that is just an anomaly or having ended so brutally and awfully with millions dead that it is really just more evidence in favor of my thesis.

SLD

 

[Trausti]

1848 was a really boring year in Europe.

 

[blastula]

Numerology is totally legit.