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The effects of warming: Kilodeaths

From the reports for decades global food security has been rising and poverty going down.

Food security is now declining due to warming and effects on agriculture. Deaths are rising in marginal areas. That in turn increases poverty.

The USA is predicted to become a net food importer in the future.
 
Titled OP link: Half-a-degree warmer means 30,000 more deaths yearly in urban China: study

Civilization could crumble by 2050 if we don't stop climate change now, new paper says - "Warming climate could bring "outright chaos" unless urgent steps are taken, according to the paper's authors."

Noting Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach
This week, a new policy paper from an Australian think tank claims that those other reports are slightly off; the risks of climate change are actually much, much worse than anyone can imagine.

According to the paper, climate change poses a "near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization," and there's a good chance society could collapse as soon as 2050 if serious mitigation actions aren't taken in the next decade.

"Thirty-five percent of the global land area, and 55 percent of the global population, are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of human survivability," the authors hypothesized.

Meanwhile, droughts, floods and wildfires regularly ravage the land. Nearly one-third of the world's land surface turns to desert. Entire ecosystems collapse, beginning with the planet's coral reefs, the rainforest and the Arctic ice sheets. The world's tropics are hit hardest by these new climate extremes, destroying the region's agriculture and turning more than 1 billion people into refugees.
All those refugees will have to go somewhere, and that means a LOT of trouble.
 
Trump administration removes quarter of all climate change references from government websites | The Independent - "Researchers warn move has 'severely weakened public access' to information about environment"
Donald Trump’s administration has removed a quarter of all references to climate change from federal government websites since 2016, researchers have found.

Agencies’ usage of broad environmental terms which “undermine clear analysis” has grown at a similar rate over the same period in a move that has “severely weakened public access” to information, a report warned.

The Environmental Data and Governance Initiative (EDGS), which published the research, analysed more than 5,300 pages on the websites of 23 federal agencies.

It found usage of the terms “climate change,” “clean energy,” and “adaptation” had dropped 25 per cent since Mr Trump’s inauguration as president. There were 4,912 mentions of “climate change” on the websites analysed in 2018, compared to 6,552 in 2016.

Over the same period, researchers said, the frequency of “catch-all terms that are employed to undermine clear analysis” increased by 26 per cent. Such terms cited by the report included “energy independence,” “resilience,” and “sustainability”.
Seems like what Stephen Harper did in Canada - and like Lysenkoism.
 
I don’t think you guys are getting it. It’s not about anyone being in denial. This is what is wanted. This is what is being chosen. If we aren’t going to have any more “world wars”—and releasing a viral epidemic would be too unpredictable—then billions of deaths as a result of (either directly or, first and foremost, indirectly) climate change is the next best thing.

The thought that first goes through pretty much any rich person’s head when they read the news or watch TV or just go out and about in the world and have to deal with any other people that aren’t as rich as they are is, “When are all of these other assholes going to die already?”

I mean, let’s be honest; it’s what goes through most of our own heads too and few if any of us here are rich.

Whether it’s an accurate assessment of reality or not, rich people not only do not believe climate change will effect them in any way, shape or form, they are literally banking on the fact that it will kill billions of people so that they can have all of that room/resources to themselves.

THAT and that alone is the reason why no one in the upper echelons is doing anything to stop—or, at this point, abate, since it’s long past the stopping point—anything at all to do with climate change. We’ve known about his for well over fifty years, after all.

It’s not a death wish; it’s a narcissistic inability to believe that they will ever be in any way harmed and that billions dying will be what this globe (and they) need.

In short, surprise surprise, they can’t wait for sea levels to rise and billions to die. Can’t wait! Far from planning against it, they are actively planning for it. Why do you think our military budget is so astronomically high? We fight no one. We have no enemies. We have not had an actual enemy since WWII and even then it took us several years to even really give a fuck.

“Terrorists” have never amounted to anything more than mosquitoes ffs. Yes, that includes 9/11. In the big historical scheme of things, that was a fucking smack on the wrist with a tiny, little ruler.

We have carpet bombed entire cities, murdering hundreds of thousands of completely innocent men, women and children. We are still the only nation to have ever used nukes—TWICE— when neither was militarily necessary.

So, again, sorry incredulous ones, but if you haven’t figured out by now what the agenda is, then you’re simply going to be fodder. Well, even if you have, you’re simply fodder, but that should be a given.

As far as changing anything, it’s way too fucking late for that. We have already been poisoned. We are already dead. It’s just going to take a little time for the poison to travel through the bloodstream is all.

And the ones that poisoned us are all—very quietly—selling their beach front property to idiots who don’t know any better.

No matter where you live the rich will always survive longer than any other fringe elements, so it really does not matter to them if all of us die or kill each other in desperation.

Short of something immediately cataclysmic (like a planet killer meteorite), decades long encroachment and all of the changes in environment that will result won’t ever effect any rich person. And by the time billions have either died or been killed in any “wars” the problem with be solved.

I can guarantee you that someone like Bill Gates—through no malicious intent on his own, of course—has already planned for the next one hundred years for his family and fortified all of his homes/properties to the point where nothing will ever impact them beyond too much daily trouble.

I don’t mean he’s built fall out shelters, but I do mean his properties are likely already so intelligently designed and outfitted so as to keep generations of his family perfectly safe in a multitude of different forward thinking, energy efficient ways that none of us have probably ever heard of. Way beyond solar, iow.

And with each passing year, he is no doubt updating and ensuring—in his will, if by no other means—that such updating and considerations are constantly being tended to.

Again, not in any malicious sense, just in a “I’ve got billions of dollars and can’t even give it all away fast enough, so I’ll just keep spending a shit load on making my homes and family safe for generations.”

So while others eventually—those that survive—fight over moldy bread in the water soaked canals of New York, the rich will have moved into their mountain retreats long before.

And don’t think I’m picking on cities just for the fun of it; the rural plains are already the first to die through excessive floods and droughts and hurricanes and other forms of increasingly overwhelming weather forces that will simply destroy everything in the middle of America first and foremost, LONG before all of the coastal cities are gradually turned into Venice.

Everyone that voted for Trump will be dead within the next forty years and not just from old age, of course. You all (and the Dems that refused to move) will be repeatedly and constantly devastated by natural disasters that simply won’t stop. We’re already seeing that happening, in fact, and it will just keep increasing in both severity and unpredictability.

Ask any farmer you know, there is no way that a farm can sustain any meaningful crops when the weather changes twenty to forty degrees from morning to night.

And a shitload of you idiots will insist it’s “wrath of god” shit and your cult leaders—who will all be joining those rich assholes that knew it was happening and deliberately didn’t do shit to stop it—will be blaming you for it all as they high tail it up into the safer areas.

This is why all the “malitias” have been driven down out of the mountains to vote . So all those assholes will be killed too in the mounting “civil wars” that Trump is already trying to foment. All the conspiracy theory inculcation; all of the Breitbart bullshit; it’s all designed to basically gather you all up in a neat little circle so that after you’re all dead, you’ll be easier to bulldoze into mass graves.

Exactly the same plan, btw, that was behind the supposed nuclear bomb “survival” cartoons every kid in America was forced to watch in the fifties and sixties. “Duck and cover” and “fallout shelters” were all actually designed to make it easier for the grave diggers. True. Absolutely true.

So that’s all fun.
 
This guy seems to know more about climate than the average bear! A leading author to the IPCC.

Professor Andy Pitman who says GW/CC/CD has nothing to do with droughts or a y weather events!
 
Exactly the same plan, btw, that was behind the supposed nuclear bomb “survival” cartoons every kid in America was forced to watch in the fifties and sixties. “Duck and cover” and “fallout shelters” were all actually designed to make it easier for the grave diggers. True. Absolutely true.

So that’s all fun.

This makes no sense. After a nuclear war there aren't going to be grave diggers.
 
Sweltering heat to grip parts of 13 states in South, Midwest [Video] - the ones mentioned: TX, LA, FL, MO, IL, AR, MI, OK

National Weather Service - as I write this (Aug 13), there is an "Excessive Heat Warning" for MS and parts of nearby states, and a "Heat Advisory" out to a little bit further - TX, GA, S end of IL. Also an EHW for parts of S AZ, CA.

Killer Heat in the United States: Climate Choices and the Future of Dangerously Hot Days (2019) | Union of Concerned Scientists
The United States is facing a potentially staggering expansion of dangerous heat over the coming decades.

This analysis shows the rapid, widespread increases in extreme heat that are projected to occur across the country due to climate change, including conditions so extreme that a heat index cannot be measured. The analysis also finds that the intensity of the coming heat depends heavily on how quickly we act now to reduce heat-trapping emissions.

The results highlight a stark choice: We can continue on our current path, where we fail to reduce emissions and extreme heat soars. Or we can take bold action now to dramatically reduce emissions and prevent the worst from becoming reality.
The same is true of much of the rest of the world, I'm sure.

That page links to some interactive pages that show how many days above various heat thresholds. Killer Heat in the United States: The Future of Dangerously Hot Days the US by county. One can download fact sheets for each Congressional district in Killer Heat in the United States, by Congressional District: The Future of Dangerously Hot Days
 
The 10 Hottest Global Years on Record | Climate Central - 2016, 2017, 2015, 2018, 2014, 2010, 2005, 2013, 2009, 1998

All the global temperature records set so far in 2019 - Axios
The world's top 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014 — and it's almost certain that 2019 will be added to this list as well.

Why it matters from Axios' Andrew Freedman: Such trends are indicative of long-term global warming due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy and transportation, cutting down forests for agriculture and other purposes. Only 1 of the top 20 warmest years on record since instrument data began in 1880 took place before the year 2000. With greenhouse gas concentrations in the air at their highest level in 3 million years, the odds favor more record-shattering years in the future.
Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal | Science Advances
Our results suggest that the current CO2 concentration is unprecedented over the past 3 million years and that global temperature never exceeded the preindustrial value by more than 2°C during the Quaternary.
Quaternary = Pleistocene + Holocene
 
Earth's 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014 - Axios
The ratio of warm and cold temperature records is increasingly skewed - Axios
This is how much the world has warmed since 1880 - Axios

Berkeley Earth - 2018 Temperatures - 1850 to 2018
Temperature rise since 1850: 1.2 C

Global-averaged temperature roughly constant until it started rising ~ 1910.
Why the Little Ice Age Doesn't Matter - The Atlantic
No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era | Nature
The variation is mostly regional.

Report: Global temps are the highest they've been in 4,000 years - the first half of the Holocene was relatively warm, though likely not as warm as today.
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years | Science
The pattern of temperatures shows a rise as the world emerged from the last deglaciation, warm conditions until the middle of the Holocene, and a cooling trend over the next 5000 years that culminated around 200 years ago in the Little Ice Age. Temperatures have risen steadily since then, leaving us now with a global temperature higher than those during 90% of the entire Holocene.

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow - the Holocene has been about as warm as it ever has been over the last 3 million years -- that includes the entire Pleistocene (2.5 m.y.), and it is a little bit into the Pliocene.

Also shows graphs of the steady loss of Greenland and Antarctic ice, as measured by the GRACE pair of gravity satellites. They transmit signals to each other, and the back-and-forth time for them gives their separation.

Ice Sheets | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet - Greenland and Antarctica for 2002 - 2017 - from their gravity, they are losing ice. They gain some in local winter, but they lose more in local summer.
 
 Dansgaard–Oeschger event
In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common.

Heinrich events only occur in the cold spells immediately preceding D-O warmings, leading some to suggest that D-O cycles may cause the events, or at least constrain their timing.[4]

The course of a D-O event sees a rapid warming of temperature, followed by a cool period lasting a few hundred years.[5] This cold period sees an expansion of the polar front, with ice floating further south across the North Atlantic Ocean.[5]
 Geologic temperature record - a lot warmer than the present over much of the Phanerozoic. Likely from reduced or absent ice sheets: no very cold spots.
 
It sure looks like we are heading to a bible scale apocalyptic correction by nature.

Someone born today in North America or Europe may face food and water shortages in their lifetime.

A UW study predicts the Columbia River will draw down due to reduced snowpack and spring melts. Eastern Washington and Oregon agriculture are mostly dry land agriculture supported by the Columbia.

The warming of Lake Washington is interfering with salmon runs. There is an algae bloom based on temperature. Small fish eat the algae and salmon eat the small fish. Salmon are arriving off the peak bloom.

A recent repot said a salmon run has been devastated in a river by high temperature. The higher temp means less dissolved oxygen. They suffocated.

Back in the 60s 70s what were then called survivalists were considered fringe eluents. Live off the grid and grow your own food. Looks like they may have been on to something even back then.
 
Back in the 60s 70s what were then called survivalists were considered fringe eluents. Live off the grid and grow your own food. Looks like they may have been on to something even back then.

While you can live off the grid you can't live apart from it--you need the inputs from modern technology to do that, if society collapses you aren't going to be able to get spare parts etc, you won't be growing your own food for long. Not to mention being able to defend it from the hungry hordes that will show up. The only scenario in which the survivalist approach makes any sense at all is some sort of biological catastrophe.
 
Stock a lot of spare parts? Of course the survivalist position is flawed.

However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology. In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.

It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.
 
Stock a lot of spare parts? Of course the survivalist position is flawed.

However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology. In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.

It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.

I think you may be understating a bit what is needed for technology. Sure a wind mill is fairly easy if you want mechanical power to pump water or to run a grist mill. An electrical generator is a bit more difficult unless you have some simple technique for making insulated wire from raw copper ore and tree sap. Making solar panels would require a bit more than the average survivalist has available. But then I haven't ever heard anyone call Shokley's lab at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey a barn on a farm.
 
... snip ...

While you can live off the grid you can't live apart from it--you need the inputs from modern technology to do that,

... snip ...

It depends on how you want to live. I think the Amish would be able to do quite well in northern Idaho... and then the tribes in the Amazon rain forest are doing the survivalist thingy pretty well too.
 
However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology.
Did quite well IN WHAT WAY???
In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.
Horseshit.
It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.
Have you ever played any Civilization sort of game? Those games have technology trees that one must navigate as one plays. These are inspired by real-life technologies, and most of them have depended on previous ones. steve_bank, the technological regression that you describe is one that goes several steps backward. So going forward again will be difficult - one has to master several steps. Knowing what to do will help, but one will have to have plenty of paper books.

Why not look at the manufacturing processes necessary for solar panels or integrated circuits? Lots of precision high-tech equipment. Integrated circuits? Absolutely necessary for making computers widely usable. There's a reason that we don't use discrete transistors in our computers anymore.

So it will be important to keep a high level of technology so we don't have to rebuild it.
 
Successful in the sense steam powered trains delivered live beef and fresh produce around the country. Nutrition took a quantum leap. It manifested in the growth in height of doors. The opposite of NK where growth is stunted from malnutrition of young. Mass production of essential items like tools and nails, plows.

Solar electricity can power a wide range of machine tools. What survivalists would lack is raw materials like iron and aluminum and copper. With a reduced population that supplies needs plus some general amenities instead of gargantuan production of things we do not need humans could live like kings, if they get their collective shit together.

I have not played video games since PONG and Asteroids. I base my thinking on history, current events, and knowledge of technology.

One man's horseshit is another man's perfume.

Using video games to predict the future, I suppose it is a sign of the times. No one can say for sure, but the general scenarios are predictable. As food, water, and minerals become scarce war. Compounded by nuclear weapons. With the reduction in crop yields from warming the situation at the border only gets worse.

The govt has already predicted we will cease to be a net food exporter. The Midwest aquifer is drawing down. Ca wells are becoming contaminated with salt water. The Colorado River is nearly entirely consumed. It is predicted the LA area will be unable to supply drinking water in coming decades. A long list of indicators. Lower snowpacks means less water in summer.

Humans are tribal. China for decades has try to control international waters in the South China Sea for minerals, oil, and fish. Skirmishes with the Philippines. Chinese fishing fleets over time fished out territorial waters and expnded globaly.

Tribalism is alreasy happening. Trump along with Putin.

It does mot take a video game to see the possible futures.

For Germany and Japan WWII was about oil and food.

Civilization breaks down quickly. Looting during blackouts. ANTIFA vs Neo Nazis.

We have become an affluent, corrupt, decadent society and do not have the wisdom to preserves what we have. Congress is paralyzed. Global warming is the tipping point.

I am just hoping things hold up as long as my heart does,.

Back in the 70s I had a philosophy prof who attended a govt seminar. The gist of it was at some point in future the have nots will try to overwhelm the haves. That is our southern border. And that was the recent wave of people that swept across Europe.

The historical signs are all there. It does not take an academic to see it.

Knowledge and technology will likely survive. Collapse followed by authorial systems will need to preserve technology. Like China today. They will meet food riots with guns to maintain order and continuity. Life will go on without the stability of the postwar alliances.

So the lesson is put on your headphones, take your drug of choice, and watch your video games...there is nothing you can do. Historical forces are in motion.
 
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