The effects of warming: Kilodeaths

[Loren Pechtel]

I give up. One cannot reason with a brainwashed mind until that mind is cleansed out of it's poisoned indoctrination!

Which is exactly what we have been experiencing--you're the one with the brainwashed mind.

 

[angelo]

Of course I am. How the hell could I be so blind as not to see! 100% of doomsday scenarios been caused by that naughty CO2 have all eventuated haven't they. There are millions of GW/CC/CD refugees seeking higher ground, both poles are no more, Greenland's ice sheet long ago melted, Australia's Great Barrier reef is no more, all predictions of dooms day events made in the con artist's Al Gore mockumentary An Inconvenient Truth have all long ago come to pass, there has never been a Climategate. The Earth only had a decade before catastrophic consequences
overtook us back in 2000. But here we are in 2020 and the dire consequences have been pushed back another decade in the future.

The funniest moment was when an icebreaker was dispatched to Antarctica by the climate alarmists to check just how bad the melting of the ice sheet was, and the " scientists" had to be recused, airlifted by helicopter when the icebreaker got stuck in the ice.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I give up. One cannot reason with a brainwashed mind until that mind is cleansed out of it's poisoned indoctrination!

Yes!

Of course I am. How the hell could I be so blind as not to see! 100% of doomsday scenarios been caused by that naughty CO2 have all eventuated haven't they. There are millions of GW/CC/CD refugees seeking higher ground, both poles are no more, Greenland's ice sheet long ago melted, Australia's Great Barrier reef is no more, all predictions of dooms day events made in the con artist's Al Gore mockumentary

An Inconvenient Truth have all long ago come to pass, there has never been a Climategate. The Earth only had a decade before catastrophic consequences
overtook us back in 2000. But here we are in 2020 and the dire consequences have been pushed back another decade in the future.

The funniest moment was when an icebreaker was dispatched to Antarctica by the climate alarmists to check just how bad the melting of the ice sheet was, and the " scientists" had to be recused, airlifted by helicopter when the icebreaker got stuck in the ice.

Aw fuck!

Northwest Passage

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little more to sweep under the rug.

In the 1,681 previous months, only three were more above normal. These three months -- March 2016, February 2016 and December 2015 -- occurred with an El Niño present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which acts to temporarily heat the Earth naturally.

But Alaska had a cold January, therefore, it must be a hoax.

 

[fromderinside]

Cut it out. Individual observations of second hand information, even in chorus, is not evidence.

Anyone getting off by ridiculing such needs to get back to evidence based discussion toot sweet.

Stern look.

 

[angelo]

A little more to sweep under the rug.

In the 1,681 previous months, only three were more above normal. These three months -- March 2016, February 2016 and December 2015 -- occurred with an El Niño present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which acts to temporarily heat the Earth naturally.

But Alaska had a cold January, therefore, it must be a hoax.

Oh dear, we're all doomed! Better say goodbye to grandma and grandpa and sell all your belongings and or assets and use the proceeds to travel the world, or buy that Ferrari you always wanted while there's still time to enjoy it all. For my part I'll use what little money Iv'e got on wine women and song. I want to go out with a bang!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little more to sweep under the rug.

In the 1,681 previous months, only three were more above normal. These three months -- March 2016, February 2016 and December 2015 -- occurred with an El Niño present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which acts to temporarily heat the Earth naturally.

But Alaska had a cold January, therefore, it must be a hoax.

Oh dear, we're all doomed! Better say goodbye to grandma and grandpa and sell all your belongings and or assets and use the proceeds to travel the world, or buy that Ferrari you always wanted while there's still time to enjoy it all. For my part I'll use what little money Iv'e got on wine women and song. I want to go out with a bang!

That’s all you’ve got? One would have guessed that you would have gotten good at sarcasm with all the practice. But you seem stuck at petty.

 

[angelo]

I don't want to brag or anything, but Iv'e lived through at least 10 doomsday scenarios that I can remember already. oh dear. I'm showing my age aren't I? I await the rapture with interest. What did the Swedish brat predict, a decade was is? I hope I'll live that long, and beyond it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't want to brag or anything, but Iv'e lived through at least 10 doomsday scenarios that I can remember already. oh dear. I'm showing my age aren't I? I await the rapture with interest. What did the Swedish brat predict, a decade was is? I hope I'll live that long, and beyond it.

Okay, so you are now back to the 'it's warming, but who gives a fuck' part of the argument.

 

[fromderinside]

I think angelo thinks he's reporting something he observes - indifference.

Do you disagree with my read or with angleo's reported attitude?

 

[angelo]

I think angelo thinks he's reporting something he observes - indifference.

Do you disagree with my read or with angleo's reported attitude?

Attitude? What attitude. I'm stating facts, not alarmism like most are in this new cult even more radical than Scientology, Seven Day Adventist or Mormonism.

 

[lpetrich]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Fracking is NOT a transitional fuel, and it is dangerous to say so.
Fracking emits methane, which is about **84 TIMES** more powerful than CO2 in contributing to climate change for a generation.
This is not a joke. We either commit to the science or not. https://t.co/gM7ArxDhgd" / Twitter

Natural gas is a much ‘dirtier’ energy source, carbon-wise, than we thought - "Coal, oil, and gas are responsible for much more atmospheric methane, the super-potent warming gas, than previously known."

However, the climate cost of natural gas has relied on a basic assumption: There are less total carbon emissions from natural gas than from other sources. But in recent years a flotilla of scientific studies have brought that assumption into question, primarily by looking at how much gas is lost during the production process.

If there are very few leaks or losses along the way—less than a few percent of the total amount of gas recovered—the math breaks even or comes out ahead. But if that “leakage rate” climbs over more than about 1 percent of the total gas recovered, the budget gets fuzzy, says Robert Howarth, a climate scientist at Cornell.

The problem is that leakage may be much larger. Even 2% - 3% can be bad.

It’s a Vast, Invisible Climate Menace. We Made It Visible. - The New York Times - methane leaks. Has lots of pictures of those leaks taken with infrared cameras.

To create images of methane emissions in the Permian Basin, The Times used a custom-built FLIR camera that converts infrared energy into an electronic signal to create moving pictures. The camera’s filter allows infrared wavelengths between 3.2 to 3.4 micrometers on the electromagnetic spectrum to pass through to the sensor.

To visualize gas, the camera uses helium to cool down the sensor to the temperature of liquid nitrogen, around minus 200 degrees Celsius. Unlike traditional photography lenses, which are glass, the infrared images were created using metal lenses made from germanium, which is transparent at infrared wavelengths.

 

[lpetrich]

How We Made Images of Methane, an Invisible Gas - The New York Times

Welcome to the NIST WebBook - valuable source of data

To see how good natural gas is, I collected some heat-of-formation data (negative = release)
kJ = kilojoule, mol = mole (gram-molecular-weight, not the burrowing animal)

• H2O -241.83 kJ/mol
• CO2 -393.52 kJ/mol
• CH4 -74.6 kJ/mol
• Saturated straight-chain hydrocarbon (n carbons): -(43.15 + n * 20.65) kJ/mol
• CH4 + 2O2 -> CO2 + 2H2O _ 802.58 kJ/mol
• (CH2)n-H2 + ((3/2)n+(1/2))*O2 -> n*CO2 + (n+1)*H2O _ -(198.68 + n * 614.7) kJ/mol

Moles of CO2 per megajoule released:

• C _ 2.54
• (CH2) _ 1.63
• CH4 _ 1.25

So natural gas is twice as good as coal in avoiding CO2 emission per unit energy released -- it's as good as it gets for fossil fuels.

Ammonia, a possible synfuel:

• NH3 -45.90 kJ/mol
• NH3 + (3/4)O2 -> (1/2)N2 + (3/2)H2O _ -316.843 kJ/mol

 

[lpetrich]

Thermal efficiency (usable energy / total thermal energy):
 Fossil fuel power station,  Thermal power station

• Steam turbine (coal, oil): 37%
• Combustion turbine (natgas): 35% (max)
• Combined cycle (natgas): 58% (avg)

This makes natural gas about 3 times better than coal in CO2 emissions when run in baseline mode.

But the problem with natural gas is that it is methane.

 

[lpetrich]

Ideal US Cities To Survive Climate Change | CleanTechnica
noting
Susan Cooper on Twitter: "Here's where 12 climate scientists say they'd live in the US to avoid future natural disasters. Cities like Portland, Tulsa, Minneapolis, and Charlotte rank among the preferred locations for avoiding effects of climate change. https://t.co/sCBaQmNNd7" / Twitter
noting
Where to live to avoid natural disasters, according to climatologists - Business Insider - "We asked 12 climate scientists where they'd live in the US to avoid future natural disasters. Here's what they said."

Tulsa, Oklahoma is not threatened by sea-level rise.

Hartford, Connecticut is also not vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Even if Boulder, Colorado gets hit by a major drought in the next 10 years, the city won't run out of water.

San Diego, California has the best all-around weather compared to other major cities.

Sacramento, California may be vulnerable to wildfires, but it could still be one of the safest places to avoid the cumulative effects of natural disasters.

Minnesota's twin cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul are relatively sheltered from hurricanes and floods.

The inland location of Charlotte, North Carolina makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania could experience less extreme cold in the future.

Portland, Oregon could become a refuge for climate migrants.

Unfortunately, Hawaii is expected to see more frequent and intense tropical storms, so scientists don't recommend living there.

Most of the choices are of inland cities.

About Portland OR,

A 2011 report from Portland State University echoed that— it predicted that the Willamette Valley would become a refuge for people looking to escape the harsh effects of climate change.

 

[bilby]

Ideal US Cities To Survive Climate Change | CleanTechnica
noting
Susan Cooper ?????????????????? on Twitter: "Here's where 12 climate scientists say they'd live in the US to avoid future natural disasters. Cities like Portland, Tulsa, Minneapolis, and Charlotte rank among the preferred locations for avoiding effects of climate change. https://t.co/sCBaQmNNd7" / Twitter
noting
Where to live to avoid natural disasters, according to climatologists - Business Insider - "We asked 12 climate scientists where they'd live in the US to avoid future natural disasters. Here's what they said."

Tulsa, Oklahoma is not threatened by sea-level rise.

Hartford, Connecticut is also not vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Even if Boulder, Colorado gets hit by a major drought in the next 10 years, the city won't run out of water.

San Diego, California has the best all-around weather compared to other major cities.

Sacramento, California may be vulnerable to wildfires, but it could still be one of the safest places to avoid the cumulative effects of natural disasters.

Minnesota's twin cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul are relatively sheltered from hurricanes and floods.

The inland location of Charlotte, North Carolina makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania could experience less extreme cold in the future.

Portland, Oregon could become a refuge for climate migrants.

Unfortunately, Hawaii is expected to see more frequent and intense tropical storms, so scientists don't recommend living there.

Most of the choices are of inland cities.

About Portland OR,

A 2011 report from Portland State University echoed that— it predicted that the Willamette Valley would become a refuge for people looking to escape the harsh effects of climate change.

Portland OR doesn't strike me as a great place to go to avoid natural disasters.

The Cascadia subduction zone is overdue for a very large (~ Richter 9+) earthquake, almost certainly associated with a tsunami of great size and short warning. The Portland Hills Fault is also a serious earthquake risk, as it directly underlies the built up area; Even a relatively small quake (Richter 7-, less than 1% of the anticipated subduction zone quake) on this fault would be extremely damaging.

https://www.oregongeology.org/pubs/ofr/p-O-18-02.htm

 

[lpetrich]

Climate worst-case scenarios may not go far enough, cloud data shows | Environment | The Guardian - "Modelling suggests climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than thought"

Worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised upwards in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds, scientists have said.

Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers.

Clouds are difficult to model, it must be conceded.

Previous IPCC reports tended to assume that clouds would have a neutral impact because the warming and cooling feedbacks would cancel each other out. But in the past year and a half, a body of evidence has been growing showing that the net effect will be warming. This is based on finer resolution computer models and advanced cloud microphysics.

“Clouds will determine humanity’s fate – whether climate is an existential threat or an inconvenience that we will learn to live with,” said Palmer. “Most recent models suggest clouds will make matters worse.”