The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?

[rousseau]

Unfortunately I don't have the time to put together a robust original post, but with it looking like we're in the final stages of the pandemic I thought a new thread on specifically that topic might be worthwhile to make.

Share what you've found, share what you know, claim that the pandemic isn't even happening, whatever suits your needs.

 

[Rhea]

I keep hearing “this is the turn in the curve”, often from my husband, but I can’t help wonder if a turn of a few days can be considered real yet.

I continue to wonder about how long an infection-triggered immunity will last, and whether a new variant will emerge.

So my current frame of mind is that “final stages of pandemic” doesn’t feel like something I can know yet.

 

[rousseau]

I keep hearing “this is the turn in the curve”, often from my husband, but I can’t help wonder if a turn of a few days can be considered real yet.

I continue to wonder about how long an infection-triggered immunity will last, and whether a new variant will emerge.

So my current frame of mind is that “final stages of pandemic” doesn’t feel like something I can know yet.

It's certain that new variants will emerge, and likely indefinitely. The end game likely happens with the virus becoming endemic like the flu. I don't think we're quite there yet, but maybe close enough to start thinking about it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I keep hearing “this is the turn in the curve”, often from my husband, but I can’t help wonder if a turn of a few days can be considered real yet.

I continue to wonder about how long an infection-triggered immunity will last, and whether a new variant will emerge.

So my current frame of mind is that “final stages of pandemic” doesn’t feel like something I can know yet.

It's certain that new variants will emerge, and likely indefinitely. The end game likely happens with the virus becoming endemic like the flu. I don't think we're quite there yet, but maybe close enough to start thinking about it.

Generally, variants will trade pain and suffering for contagiousness. So, it usually goes downhill from here, but it doesn't have to do that. It could have both worsening issues and transmission benefits with a few mutations.

Omicron appeared in South Africa late November and torched nations in North America and Europe in less than two months. Kind of makes one ask, well, how much more contagious can it get? Of course, Omicron will also burn out of people. Which might allow a newer variant to take place. And we are dealing with cousins at this point. Many branches of the virus. The biggest issue down the road is how lethal the Variant du Jour is to the elderly (and how many people are being sent to the hospital).

Hopefully this one takes the Bell Curve. But ultimately, it is "wait and see".

 

[southernhybrid]

I keep hearing “this is the turn in the curve”, often from my husband, but I can’t help wonder if a turn of a few days can be considered real yet.

I continue to wonder about how long an infection-triggered immunity will last, and whether a new variant will emerge.

So my current frame of mind is that “final stages of pandemic” doesn’t feel like something I can know yet.

It's certain that new variants will emerge, and likely indefinitely. The end game likely happens with the virus becoming endemic like the flu. I don't think we're quite there yet, but maybe close enough to start thinking about it.

I have no idea what will come next and I don't think anyone does, but I hope you're right that we are nearing the end and the virus will soon be endemic. I've just read so many articles recently by scientists who are still skeptical that we are near then end. There's a chance that a new variant will be as contagious as omicron but as deadly as delta. Hopefully that isn't the case, but collectively, the world has been so wrong about this virus so many times, that I'm not sure how long it will take to become more benign.

Now, maybe if the vaccine was available world wide and maybe if everyone eligible was willing to be vaccinated, we'd be over the worst of it. But, since that's not the case, and since the damn thing mutates like crazy......who knows what will happen next?

 

[steve_bank]

One of the drug companies announced a combo flu-covid shot availble in about 2 teras.

The science consensus says it will remain and persist as the flu does.

 

[rousseau]

This paper from last year is pretty good:

Here

Herd immunity to a pathogen is achieved when a sufficient portion of a population is simultaneously immune to prevent sustained transmission. The threshold to achieve it is governed by a number of factors, including the transmissibility of the disease. More-infectious strains of SARS-CoV-2 therefore raise the bar on herd immunity. The virus has been mutating since it was identified a year ago. The concerning development in recent weeks has been the confirmation of new strains in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere that combine multiple mutations and have different profiles.

It looks like there were predictions of potential herd immunity late last year, but the potential for variants was an issue. Omicron seemed to be exactly that.

A transition toward normalcy will occur when COVID-19 mortality falls and the disease is de-exceptionalized in society. COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition, but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response. During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use in many settings), but mortality will fall significantly, allowing greater normalization of business and social activities. This will be driven by a combination of early vaccine rollout (which, being directed first at those at greatest risk, should reduce deaths faster than cases), seasonality, increasing natural immunity, and stronger public-health response.

So more or less what we've said above: we need to wait for the virus to become less deadly, the end is just a matter of when that happens. In Canada there seems to be a bit of this transition now, I've been surprised that there hasn't been stricter lockdowns. But I wonder if this might spring more from the fact that they don't want the economy to crumble, rather than the virus being less deadly.

 

[Thomas II]

 

[skepticalbip]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

This would be a lot easier if everyone was vaccinated and hospitalization totals were less than a tenth of what they are (were).

Of course, if everyone got vaccinated and there were 1500 people hospitalized, the anti-vaxxers would whine about that, "Why bother to get vaccinated when thousands are in the hospital?!"

 

[skepticalbip]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

This would be a lot easier if everyone was vaccinated and hospitalization totals were less than a tenth of what they are (were).

Of course, if everyone got vaccinated and there were 1500 people hospitalized, the anti-vaxxers would whine about that, "Why bother to get vaccinated when thousands are in the hospital?!"

We spend too much time fretting about the unvaccinated. We need to get back to our lives. They will either develop natural immunity or Darwin will take care of them.

 

[steve_bank]

Here in Seattle I see less people wearing masks out on the streets.

Sarah Palin was in a restaurant without a mask knowing she tested positive for COVID. When public people with influence are doing that then it is hopeless. She has a degree from U Of Idaho, I checked.

In the news a woman was on camera saying her kid would never wear a mask in school, and if he was forced she'd bring her guns.Parents who refuse to vaccinate their kids.

A Washington doctor was busted for rubber stamping medical exemptions for vaccinations.

It is not just those who we may think are just scientifically ignorant, it is college educated people. Like some congressional republicans.

Aron Rodgers in the NFL lied about his vaccination status, the tennis payer kicked out of Australia. The actions of these kinds of peole impact fans.

 

[rousseau]

There does seem to be a bit of that feel lately. The virus is definitely not done, but most people don't care anymore and have run out of patience for lockdowns.

My wife and I are still hiding out given a twenty month old and pregnancy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

This would be a lot easier if everyone was vaccinated and hospitalization totals were less than a tenth of what they are (were).

Of course, if everyone got vaccinated and there were 1500 people hospitalized, the anti-vaxxers would whine about that, "Why bother to get vaccinated when thousands are in the hospital?!"

We spend too much time fretting about the unvaccinated. We need to get back to our lives. They will either develop natural immunity or Darwin will take care of them.

Yeah, as long as you aren't a doctor or work in a hospital...

 

[skepticalbip]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

This would be a lot easier if everyone was vaccinated and hospitalization totals were less than a tenth of what they are (were).

Of course, if everyone got vaccinated and there were 1500 people hospitalized, the anti-vaxxers would whine about that, "Why bother to get vaccinated when thousands are in the hospital?!"

We spend too much time fretting about the unvaccinated. We need to get back to our lives. They will either develop natural immunity or Darwin will take care of them.

Yeah, as long as you aren't a doctor or work in a hospital...

You seem to be conflating "unvaccinated" and "infected". The vaccinated can, and do, also get infected. A big difference being that the unvaccinated that is infected is much more obvious because they are more likely to be home in bed.

When Coved is finally recognized as another of many endemic diseases that we live with then we can react to it like we do the seasonal flu. It will be a concern (like the flu) but not something that makes us avoid the normal enjoyments of life and cower in our homes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The End of the Pandemic: When will it happen?​

If you are leaving the decision to me then I declare that the pandemic will end on 1 Feb. 2022. At that time it will become an endemic disease like the seasonal flu or common cold that we will just have to live with.

This would be a lot easier if everyone was vaccinated and hospitalization totals were less than a tenth of what they are (were).

Of course, if everyone got vaccinated and there were 1500 people hospitalized, the anti-vaxxers would whine about that, "Why bother to get vaccinated when thousands are in the hospital?!"

We spend too much time fretting about the unvaccinated. We need to get back to our lives. They will either develop natural immunity or Darwin will take care of them.

Yeah, as long as you aren't a doctor or work in a hospital...

You seem to be conflating "unvaccinated" and "infected".

Greater than a magnitude difference in hospitalization of vax and unvax'd, so there is no conflation on who was cramming ERs in NE Ohio in December and January making access to health care difficult. This is indeed the major issue left. I mean, yes, we have pretty much given up on caring about counting the dead, which thankfully hasn't peaked the peak, but did rise to the second highest peak during the pandemic, which is pretty bad seeing we have a vaccine available.

The vaccinated can, and do, also get infected. A big difference being that the unvaccinated that is infected is much more obvious because they are more likely to be home in bed.

When Coved is finally recognized as another of many endemic diseases that we live with then we can react to it like we do the seasonal flu. It will be a concern (like the flu) but not something that makes us avoid the normal enjoyments of life and cower in our homes.

Once it's impact on the hospital system is similar to that of the flu, it can be considered a flu. I'm just wanting it to get to super Flu status, where people get knocked down, but don't need hospitalization.

 

[prideandfall]

Unfortunately I don't have the time to put together a robust original post, but with it looking like we're in the final stages of the pandemic I thought a new thread on specifically that topic might be worthwhile to make.

Share what you've found, share what you know, claim that the pandemic isn't even happening, whatever suits your needs.

well first of all there's a big difference between "the pandemic" and the "the state of the virus within the human population worldwide."

i'd say that "the pandemic" will be over when one of two things has happened:
1. the public get tired/bored of reading death statistics and so stop worrying it, and the country collectively shoves the idea of COVID under the rug the same way they did the war of afghanistan for 20 years.
2. some royal has a baby, or a bombing happens, or something big enough distracts people enough that the perpetual state of fear that has gripped the zeitgeist over COVID loses its grip and the virus goes into the same category as the homeless: a problem that exists but not one that is ever relevant to me so it doesn't matter.

now, probably the infection rates and the death rates will continue on even after "the pandemic" is over, though there's a good question to be asked about whether that will be spread evenly throughout a country's population, or isolated to certain areas based on their behaviors.

one can hope that for example in the US it rages on in the south and kills enough people that voting demographics shift enough that *maybe* the US can start acting like a first world country in the year 2022 and make some fucking social progress, but i'm sure that's just me being wistfully hopeful.

 

[TSwizzle]

one can hope that for example in the US it rages on in the south and kills enough people that voting demographics shift enough that *maybe* the US can start acting like a first world country in the year 2022 and make some fucking social progress, but i'm sure that's just me being wistfully hopeful.

That's the ticket.

 

[prideandfall]

one can hope that for example in the US it rages on in the south and kills enough people that voting demographics shift enough that *maybe* the US can start acting like a first world country in the year 2022 and make some fucking social progress, but i'm sure that's just me being wistfully hopeful.

That's the ticket.

yes, it is.
in a country where any sort of social, technological, philosophical, or cultural progress is being prevented solely by one subset of the population, and a culling of that subset of the population or a negation of their access to participate isn't an option, mass death by natural causes is the optimal remaining outcome.

the best thing that could happen for the future of humanity is that enough conservatives die of COVID in the next few years that republicans functionally lose political power - preferably forever, but maybe even just 40 or 50 years would be enough to make some kind of progress in possibly saving civilization as we know it.

 

[TSwizzle]

We spend too much time fretting about the unvaccinated. We need to get back to our lives. They will either develop natural immunity or Darwin will take care of them.

I'm not convinced people are fretting about virus. SoFi stadium packed with people, nary a mask in sight.