The health of the economy vs booting out republicians

[Axulus]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

 

[Patooka]

Correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise the solution to global warming is simply more pirates.

So where is the evidence that the right are more economically responsible than the left?

 

[Valjean]

The GDP doesn't reflect the welfare, prosperity or happiness of the people.
The American South had a thriving economy in the early 1800s, but the benefit redounded to a vary small sliver of the population.
"Economy" isn't a good measure of general prosperity.

 

[Axulus]

Correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise the solution to global warming is simply more pirates.

So where is the evidence that the right are more economically responsible than the left?

Are you disputing the pretty well documented observation that a strong economy helps the incumbent party get reelected?

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The GDP doesn't reflect the welfare, prosperity or happiness of the people.
The American South had a thriving economy in the early 1800s, but the benefit redounded to a vary small sliver of the population.
"Economy" isn't a good measure of general prosperity.

It's a pretty good measure of the chances of the incumbent party getting reelected, however, which was my only point.

 

[Patooka]

Are you disputing the pretty well documented observation that a strong economy helps the incumbent party get reelected?

No, you're right. That is generally the case. It probably shouldn't be, but I admit that argument doesn't really help. I would say that "America's economy is pretty strong at the moment" is a very subjective statement, and more so right now than usual. The Dow Jones suffered the biggest drop in history this year, suggesting an unprecedented amount of volatility in the market. The unintended consequences of Trumps' personal tariff war has yet to be quantified. I don't think there has ever been an honest effort to measure how much of US domestic industries are dependent on illegal workers, but I suspect that albatross isn't going to go away. Add minor little gems like the gun industry in America suffering because of a "Trump slump", and saying the economy is strong would be comparable to saying your house is fine coated in napalm because no one has lit a match yet.

 

[James Brown]

The stock market has been flat since the Republican tax plan was enacted at the end of December.

 

[laughing dog]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

It is not worrying to me. A stronger economy is usually helpful to the party in Control and the midterms is usually helpful to the opposition. I am not sanguine that the economy will show such strength in November with a significant trade war likely. Factor in Trump's unpopularity and it will be interesting to see which effects on the electorate dominate. Either the Democrats have a strong showing or they don't. If they win, then there is some hope for the future of this country. If they don't, then they will have more evidence that their current appeal is not working and, hopefully, get off their asses and change course a bit.

 

[Harry Bosch]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

I would agree that the continued strong health of the economy, coupled with the traditional weak democratic turnout - will probably give Trump 4 more years.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

Yeah, Obama was President for most of this growth, unemployment has dropped just 1 percent point under Trump. Trump is taking credit for an economy he has had not enough time to impact.

Also, there is no way that the economy can hold down inflation and grow at 4.0+%. Interest rates will increase and that will slow down the economy to avoid bad inflation. A slow down isn't going to be good because the Trump Admin is running $1 trillion annual deficits, when employment is under 4%.

 

[untermensche]

An economy allegedly improves and the lives of millions get worse.

Yes the lives of some get better. A small few.

But most either stagnate or decline.

And somehow somewhere somebody has the nerve to say it is a good economy.

The collective wealth of the US has risen steadily. It has grown greatly.

But almost all growth is taken by a tiny majority of incredibly wealthy people.

The vast majority stagnate. The price of college is skyrocketing everywhere as the federal government shifts money from education to war.

The drug war and the for-profit prison system.

And the work of the police to unite one with the other.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

We had a pretty robust economy in the Bush II era--but then it turned out to be a sham, real growth was very low, what we were seeing is the housing mess.

Are we looking at more of the same?

 

[RVonse]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

We had a pretty robust economy in the Bush II era--but then it turned out to be a sham, real growth was very low, what we were seeing is the housing mess.

Are we looking at more of the same?

Probably not. Unlike Bush, Trump is not afraid of doing the right thing at the expense of economic growth. A perfect example is trade tariffs, which he knows and has even said will cause the stock market to fall. Trump is going to do the tariffs anyway because he is after long term prosperity to make America great again.

Trump is not a short term pump the economy guy like Bush was. He is looking long term.

 

[RVonse]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

Im not your typical liberal poster here but if the economy continues on track like it is, I hope the republicans keep winning. I hate the fact that republicans like wealth disparity which I think is and will do horrible things for the country. But if everyone has a job, especially a job in the rust belt, at least that will be something.

As an aside, I think you have started an excellent thread Axulus and also look forward to hearing what others have to say about this.

 

[SimpleDon]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is, of course, supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of Congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

I don't know. I can't predict what motivates an electorate that votes for Donald Trump and conservatives in general. It should be obvious to one and all that conservatives are pretty much incapable of running something as complex as a government. There has to be a limit to their ability to redefine reality so that they define government as unnecessary and impossible to run as an excuse for their congenital incompetence trying to run it.

What was obvious in the early days of the Trump administration is that even Trump supporters would rally in support of ObamaCare. Presumably, they didn't realize that when the Republicans said that they would repeal and replace ObamaCare, they didn't realize that the Republicans meant their health care insurance.

The Trump Administration has just argued in a court filing that since Congress repealed the individual mandate and that is the fig leaf that the Supreme Court and Chief Justice Roberts used to find that the ACA is constitutional, that the entire law is now unconstitutional and should be declared null. Or is a court filing too obscure compared to a proposed bill in Congress for the typical conservative to understand?

 

[funinspace]

So the economy appears to be entering its strongest phase since the late 90s. Unemployment is very low. Also, recent data supports the possibility that GDP will grow 4.5% this quarter, with possible upside surprise of 5% growth. All of this is of course supportive of better Republican support in the mid-terms.

My question to everyone here is whether this is worrying? What is more important, a strong economy and Republicans maintaining control of congress, or a downside surprise to the economy but helping Democrats to win? Which would you prefer?

Yeah, Obama was President for most of this growth, unemployment has dropped just 1 percent point under Trump. Trump is taking credit for an economy he has had not enough time to impact.

Though true, far too many voters can only see about 6 inches forward of their nose. Whatever the election result, of course low unemployment numbers will help the incumbents (You probably weren't arguing otherwise...).

Also, there is no way that the economy can hold down inflation and grow at 4.0+%. Interest rates will increase and that will slow down the economy to avoid bad inflation. A slow down isn't going to be good because the Trump Admin is running $1 trillion annual deficits, when employment is under 4%.

I can guaranty that there will be another recession. However, when is the hard part. I can't imagine the personally felt evidence of a recession hitting people prior to the November elections. I can imagine that people we be starting to see just how the Repugs have further fucked up health care, by election time, as they see even fewer choices and even higher prices.

The 1994 election might be a good example of what can happen. Unemployment numbers were going down for the previous 2 years and the stock markets were generally happy. And Newt and the Contract with America happened. Polling data, and the special elections across the country, certainly suggests that the Dums have a decent chance of at least taking the House. The Dum's may not have a Newt, but they do have a toxic SCROTUS setting records of being disliked, in their favor.

Ironically, not having a recession now may help the Repugs trim their losses, but it sets them up for a much more likely recession as we head into the 2020 campaigns which very well might royally fuck them and FFvC over. The Con will be well worn by then and tossing in a recession would likely cement the damage this clown has done to their party. Never mind heading into a recession when deficits are already at a trillion a year, talk about fiscal irresponsibility. Personally, I think the Repugs are going to have a very hard time recovering from FFvC's toxic culmination of Repug tactics over the last decade or so.

 

[SimpleDon]

The GDP doesn't reflect the welfare, prosperity or happiness of the people.
The American South had a thriving economy in the early 1800s, but the benefit redounded to a very small sliver of the population.
"Economy" isn't a good measure of general prosperity.

I don't believe that this is true. The economy is taken as a whole is actually the collective belief in how well things are. The better the collective belief is of how good the economy is at a point in time, the actual economy is that much better at that time. If everyone thinks that the economy is good, the economy is good. If everyone thinks that the economy is bad, then the economy is bad.

The basis for this is what Keynes called the liquidity preference. When times are good, people spend, when times are bad, people save. (Or in the current atmosphere of high-income inequality and its resultant high private debt, when times are good people borrow money to spend, when times are bad, people paydown debt.)

When people spend, businesses invest, when people don't spend businesses don't invest. It is really that simple.

 

[scombrid]

I think the huge government deficit funded stimulus dumped onto an already growing economy was a bad idea.

We will see in a couple of years.

 

[SimpleDon]

The stock market has been flat since the Republican tax plan was enacted at the end of December.

The stock market is not a good measure of how well the economy is. It is a good measure of how much income inequality there is and how much of the national income is being redistributed to the already wealthy and away from wages. The more money that is paid in profits instead of wages the more money the already wealthy have and the more money that flows into the stock market. With the election of a Republican government the stock market surged in anticipation of the increase in profits at the cost of wages. In part this was realized with the tax cut bill that lowered corporate income taxes, but the realization has sunk in that lowering the corporate income tax won't have that large of an impact because large corporations had become so effective at avoiding the corporate income tax, by lobbying for tax breaks, offshoring profits, etc.

Since the tax bill made it easier for high income individuals to become corporations and thereby to lower their income taxes there might be more money going to the stock market next year. However, this might also be subject to the same dynamic as the corporate income tax is, that high income individuals already had been so successful at lowering their income taxes that it might not make much of a difference.

Neoliberalism has been so successful that it has limited its own ability to redistribute much more money to the already wealthy. And it does limit the growth of the economy, because the economy is demand led and reducing the growth of wages reduces demand.

 

[SimpleDon]

An economy allegedly improves and the lives of millions get worse.

Yes the lives of some get better. A small few.

But most either stagnate or decline.

And somehow somewhere somebody has the nerve to say it is a good economy.

The collective wealth of the US has risen steadily. It has grown greatly.

But almost all growth is taken by a tiny majority of incredibly wealthy people.

The vast majority stagnate. The price of college is skyrocketing everywhere as the federal government shifts money from education to war.

The drug war and the for-profit prison system.

And the work of the police to unite one with the other.

I disagree.

The genius of neoliberalism is that it has redistributed all of the gains in the economy due to increases in productivity and innovation to the wealthy, leaving the wage earners with the same relative income that they always had. But people are promoted into higher positions and their incomes increase and they are happy. What they don't realize is that the wages for that position was most likely lowered from what it was before.

Also corporations have largely stopped across the board wage increases, because as the income inequality has grown, the inflation has dropped to nearly zero. This is because increasing the incomes of the wealthy takes money out of the economy and into savings were it doesn't have any impact on the economy.

 

[James Brown]

The stock market has been flat since the Republican tax plan was enacted at the end of December.

The stock market is not a good measure of how well the economy is.

Oh, I know. I only mentioned it because:

A) Donald Trump liked to brag during all of 2017 how well the stock market was doing, even a few weeks after he was elected.

B) Republicans fell over themselves to explain why a growing stock market during the Obama Administration is not because of Obama, but a growing stock market during the Trump Administration is because of Trump.

C) A flat stock market hurts the donor class most of all, and they'll have smaller coffers to re-elect their bought-and-paid-for reps.