The Race For 2024

[Cheerful Charlie]

I still don't understand how women can walk in their ridiculous high heel ho' shoes. DeSantis and Trump having a walk down a ramp contest. I want to see that. The question is, now that DeSantis's weird shoe issue has been made public, will the media start observing his weird walkin gait at every chance? Will his fancy boots become an issue? Will attention to his shoes take precedent over content of his speeches?

Why does it matter that he is short? or walks with a 'weird' gait?
How do they have any effect on his ability to do the job?

President? Twinkle Toes Ron can't do that job. Luckily it looks like he won't be our next president.

 

[lpetrich]

Why are they trying to block additional parties?

... Given the devotion of Mr. Trump’s most ardent supporters, Democrats fear that most of the attrition would come from Mr. Biden’s fragile coalition.

... Internal polling conducted by his group found that an independent centrist candidate could attract more than 20 percent of the vote in competitive states, helping Mr. Trump in all but one of them.

Then mentioning Cornel West and RFK Jr., before turning to the Bidenites' biggest fiear: No Labels.

The group’s chief executive, Nancy Jacobson, has told potential donors and allies that the No Labels candidate will be a moderate Republican, according to three people familiar with the conversations. That decision would rule out Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, a Democrat whose flirtation with the idea has prompted a wave of angst within his party.

RFK?

Mr. Kennedy has also been a source of concern for Democrats, who worry that his anti-corporate politics and famous last name could pull some of their voters away from Mr. Biden. But some of Mr. Biden’s top allies also believe that Mr. Kennedy, who has increasingly pushed right-wing ideas, would hurt Mr. Trump.

RFK Jr. set to speak at CPAC event | The Hill - the Conservative Political Action Conference

“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a unique voice in advocating for the defunding of the weaponized bureaucracy and ensuring the constitutional right of medical freedom,” CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp said in a statement. “Kennedy joining such an important event is a reflection of the splintering of the left-wing coalition that has gone full woke Marxist to the point that traditional liberals don’t feel welcome anymore.”

Woke? Marxist? So one should be a sleepy capitalist?

CPAC is the premier event for the conservative wing of the Republican Party, where its annual straw poll carries weight among political predictors. Former President Trump has won the straw poll every year since 2016, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won.

 

[lpetrich]

Consider Arizona.

After the group successfully qualified for the presidential ballot, the Arizona Democratic Party sued to remove it. That legal effort failed, but the attention led two people to submit candidate statements to run for down-ballot offices on the No Labels ticket — something the group had tried to block so as to avoid being categorized as a political party, which could trigger requirements to disclose No Labels donors, who have so far been kept secret.

Who are those two candidates?

One of them, Tyson Draper, a high school coach from Thatcher, Ariz., is seeking the group’s line to run for the Senate. In an interview last week, he called himself a centrist political newcomer who had never sought public office before. A day later, he filed papers to begin a movement to recall Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat.

What kind of centrist would want something like that? Some right-winger who thinks of himself as a centrist?

The other would-be No Labeler is Richard Grayson, an assistant librarian at a community college south of Phoenix.

Mr. Grayson, 72, is seeking the No Labels nomination for the state’s Corporation Commission, which regulates public utilities. He has appeared as a candidate for office dozens of times since 1982, and said he was a Biden supporter.

“I’m a perennial candidate whose goal is to torture No Labels,” he said. “I’m enjoying it immensely. I’m tormenting them.”

So he wants to be a chaos agent?

 

[lpetrich]

I like the idea of supporting "unarmed community-led forces" as an alternative form of policing

That's not an alternative form of policing. That's the original form.

That reminds me of Dorsai Irregulars - Fanlore

Dorsai Irregulars (and their "alter egos": the "Klingon Diplomatic Corps") is a group of fans who help run security for cons. Their duties include making sure fans do not crowd celebrity guests and ensuring that fans line up for autographs in a quiet and orderly manner.

How they got started:

At Torcon 2, the 31st World Science Fiction Convention (or "WorldCon"), held in 1973 in Toronto, the only security force was hired security guards. There was friction between the guards and the fans. The guards did not understand the fannish milieu. One miscreant fan stole one of noted illustrator Kelly Freas's paintings from the Art Show... The story goes that he showed the rental guard at the door a receipt for a piece of much lower value. The guard didn't know any better and let him through.
However it happened, it left a lot of people upset and worried about what was happening in the science fiction fan community.

The story goes that he showed the rental guard at the door a receipt for a piece of much lower value. The guard didn't know any better and let him through.

However it happened, it left a lot of people upset and worried about what was happening in the science fiction fan community.

Then,

The first appearance of the Crew Discon II, 1974 Bob was an admirer of the work of Gordon R. Dickson and he asked and received permission from Gordy to use the name "Dorsai Irregulars" for the organization. Next year the WorldCon was Discon II, in Washington D.C. Asprin and six other fans in green uniforms and berets appeared on the masquerade stage and made a light-hearted attempt at some close-order drill. Then Asprin took the mike and announced that the Dorsai Irregulars were available for duty. That was the start of the Dorsai Irregulars.

The Klingon Diplomatic Corps is the Star Trek version of them, and I haven't been able to find a Star Wars version of them.

 

[lpetrich]

The final planks in Cornel West's platform: (snipped for brevity)

Some of it is good, like ending the embargo on Cuba. I'd also do that on Venezuela. I like what AOC proposes: using sanctions that target leaders and their biggest supporters, like the Magnitsky Act, which targets oligarchs friendly to Vladimir Putin.

But some of it is awful, like disbanding NATO and not funding Ukraine's war against Russia. Does CW really think that VP will listen to him about the necessity of making peace in Ukraine?

Oh wow. So he's also a Putinista. Further reason to not like him.

Or else a Chomskyite.

 

[lpetrich]

If a third party wants to have its way in government they need to drop this selfish entitlement that leads them to think the presidency is the right place to start. Once progressives have fully populated town councils, school boards, county legislatures and state legislatures, they will find that they have little to fear from the most progressive of the two large parties. Or, that if they still have issues, they now have the power to resolve them without the risk of fascism.

Let's not forget about Congress.

I am sick indeed of the part of the progressive movement that doesn’t want to do the hard work and instead smashes everything petulantly if they aren’t given the top job with no groundwork.

They talk about challenging the duopoly, but focusing only on the Presidency leaves the duopoly in place in all the downballot offices: in Congress, in state governments, and in local governments. Gross fail.

The Green Party says that it has Presidential candidates out of hopes of one day getting 5% of the vote and thus of getting Federal matching funds. But it seems like they wouldn't know what to do with the money if they got it. They don't have a systematic effort to elect people to any downballot offices. Some people in local offices call themselves Greens, but that's a tiny fraction of the total. Likewise for the few Greens who have been elected to state legislatures.

The Green Party has been running Presidential candidates for over 20 years, with nothing to show for its efforts.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ralph Nader ran as a Green Party candidate with the express strategy to get the Green Party on all 50 state ballots. He hoped to get people running for state and local ofices as Green Party candidates to build a viable third party. His success was a limited success in the short term to then faded away.

 

[lpetrich]

If one of these minor-party candidates *did* get elected, then what?

How will such a candidate govern? By issuing lots of executive orders? How will such a candidate relate to Congress and the courts?

Since the duopoly will still be in place in Congress, a candidate who dismisses the duopoly will not get anywhere. But if the candidate doesn't do that, then what?

Cornel West, Marianne Williamson, or the likely Green Party candidate: the likes of Bernie Sanders and the Progressive Squad, likely some Squad-ish Democrats, less likely most other Democrats, and almost certainly not the Republicans.

The likely Libertarian Party candidate: the Congresspeople most like Kyrsten Sinema, shamelessly corporate but liberal on social issues and cosmopolitan. They'd consider many Democrats too socialist and many Republicans too socially conservative and/or ethnonationalist.

RFK Jr.: conspiracy-mongers like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but who else?

 

[lpetrich]

This reminds me of how  Brand New Congress originated, the PAC that recruited AOC. In the spring of 2016, some Bernie Sanders campaigners asked: what next? After seeing how Congress obstructed President Obama, they decided that it's necessary to elect good members of Congress. They originally had the plan of running a candidate for every open seat in Congress, all of the House seats and 1/3 of the Senate seats. Their goal, a brand new Congress, thus their PAC's name.

They planned for BNC to run like a European-style political party, with unified messaging. But they decided not to found an additional party, and to run their candidates as Democrats, Republicans, or Independents, as appropriate for their districts. Bernie Sanders Republicans?

By 2018, BNC had recruited 30 candidates, far short of their goal, 28 Democrats, 1 Independent, and 1 Republican. The Republican lost in the primaries, and the Independent in the general election. Of those Democrats, 10 advanced to the general election, and one of them won: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. By defeating long-time incumbent Joe Crowley in the primaries, she guaranteed her general-election victory. If she had run as a Green or as an Independent, JC would have crushingly defeated her in the general election. It's telling that other progressive successes were also done by running as Democrats and primarying incumbents: Ayanna Pressley vs. Michael Capuano, Marie Newman vs. Dan Lipinski, Jamaal Bowman vs. Eliot Engel, Cori Bush vs. Lacy Clay, and Jamie McLeod-Skinner vs. Kurt Schrader.

BNC is no more, sad to say, while its 2017 spinoff Justice Democrats lives on. JD's founders decided to focus on the Democratic Party, though after 2018, BNC recruited all Democrats.

In summary, BNC's approach was to game the system, to work inside the duopoly by creating a party within a party.

 

[lpetrich]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run for president as an independent and drop his Democratic primary bid | AP News

Speaking Monday from Philadelphia’s Independence Mall, where America’s founding documents were adopted, Kennedy said there is a “rising tide of discontent” in the country and said he wants to make a “new Declaration of Independence” — from corporations, the media and the two major political parties.

“I’ve come here today to declare our independence from the tyranny of corruption which robs us of affordable lives, our belief in the future, and our respect for each other,” Kennedy said. “But to do that I must first declare my own independence. Independence from the Democratic Party and from all other political parties.”

How did the two major parties react?

Allies of both Biden and Trump have at times questioned whether Kennedy would be a spoiler against their candidate.

“The truth is, they’re both right,” Kennedy said in his speech. “My intention is to spoil it for both of them.”

Biden’s allies so far have dismissed Kennedy’s primary campaign as unserious. Asked for comment ahead of the announcement, a Democratic National Committee spokesman responded with an eye roll emoji.

The Republican National Committee published a fact sheet before Kennedy’s speech titled “Radical DEMOCRAT RFK Jr.” that lists times he supported liberal politicians or ideas. The document also listed times he supported conspiracy theories about COVID-19 or “stolen-election claims” related to the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections that Democrats lost to President George W. Bush.

Some more right-wing projection, saying that he is just like Donald Trump. But he didn't follow his claims up with some 60 lawsuits or sending a mob of his supporters to attack Congress. But willingness to make such claims suggests that he was a conspiracy monger even then.

His family?

Four of Kennedy’s eight surviving siblings put out a joint statement denouncing his candidacy and saying they were saddened by his announcement.

“The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third party candidate against Joe Biden is dangerous to our country,” it read. “Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment.”

 

[blastula]

^Nate Silver on why he thinks it probably won't hurt Biden.

Nate Silver: Why RFK Jr. Probably Doesn’t Hurt Biden

Third-party runs are unpredictable. But polls show that Trump supporters think more favorably of Kennedy.

www.thefp.com

 

[lpetrich]

 2024 United States presidential election

Democrats: Marianne Williamson, March 4, 2023 -- Joe Biden, April 25, 2023
-- Withdrawn: RFK Jr. to run as an Independent

Republicans: Corey Stapleton, November 11, 2022 -- Donald Trump, November 15, 2022 -- Vivek Ramaswamy, February 21, 2023 -- Nikki Haley, February 14, 2023 -- Perry Johnson, March 2, 2023 -- Asa Hutchinson, April 6, 2023 -- Larry Elder, April 20, 2023 -- Tim Scott, May 19, 2023 -- Ron DeSantis, May 24, 2023 -- Ryan Binkley, April 23, 2023 -- Mike Pence, June 5, 2023 -- Chris Christie, June 6, 2023 -- Doug Burgum, June 7, 2023 -- Will Hurd, June 22, 2023
-- Withdrawn: Francis Suarez, June 14, 2023 - August 29, 2023

Turning to minor-party and independent candidates, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, and No Labels have not chosen candidates yet. But some have, like the Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia de la Cruz, and the American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski.

 

[lpetrich]

The American Solidarity Party?

Peter Sonski is director of the  Knights of Columbus museum. The KoC (NoC?) is a social club for Catholic men.

For Vice President: Lauren Onak — Peter Sonski 2024

Lauren was born and raised in the suburbs of Ft. Lauderdale. She studied English literature at Barnard College of Columbia University and received a Masters in Adolescent Education from Hunter College. She is a stay at home mom to three young children and resides in the Boston suburbs. She teaches natural family planning, and is active in several community organizations.

"Natural family planning" - looking for body cues for whether or not one has released an egg cell. Like the rhythm method, that's OK with traditionalist Catholics, though "artificial" birth control isn't.

Vision — Peter Sonski 2024

The American Solidarity Party is based in the tradition of Christian democracy. We acknowledge the state should be pluralistic while upholding a vision of the common good of all and of each individual informed by Christian tradition and acknowledging the primacy of religion in each person’s life.

I'll now go through the party's platform.

Sanctity of Life

Human life is sacred, from conception until natural death. We thus oppose abortion, euthanasia, and any direct and intentional attacks on innocent human life. We oppose the death penalty as an unnecessary measure to protect human life.

At least it doesn't demand the destruction of guilty human life. I think that I have more respect for it than for many right-wing opponents of abortion, opponents who often seem to think of abortion as shirking one's duty.

Social Justice

We affirm a special collective responsibility to the most vulnerable members of society and call for societal structures that uphold the equal value and dignity of each person, regardless of any personal characteristics. This requires efforts to address systemic and historic injustices, including long-standing racial injustice in a way that confronts inequalities that disparage innate human dignity.

I agree.

 

[lpetrich]

More on the American Solidarity Party.

Community-Oriented Society

Humans are created to live in communities, and the proper organization of our communities is necessary for the flourishing of our societies. Society consists of various institutions and communities, like families, governments, and religious groups, whose primary authority over their own affairs should be respected and defended. Higher levels of government should serve to empower and support lower levels of authority, rather than replace them.

We are indeed a social species, and our ancestors were indeed social, well into the Cenozoic.

But the question of how much autonomy subsidiary groups ought to have is one that I don't think that there is any simple answer to -- it's not all or nothing, and one has to work it out individually. There is no way that a central authority can succeed in micromanaging everything, and having no central authority is often not very desirable.

Centrality of the Family

Natural marriage and the family are the central institutions of society and must be supported and strengthened, not undermined. As the family provides for the nurturing of children, it is the imperative of the state to advance the wellbeing of all families, while respecting the duty of family members to fulfill their roles freely.

What's that great unified entity, "THE" family?

Also, what's "natural" marriage?

I notice a lack of mention of alternative sexualities and relationships and gender identities, so for them, same-sex marriage likely doesn't count.

 

[lpetrich]

Still more on the American Solidarity Party.

Economic Security

The state and subsidiary organizations must act to remedy economic injustice by creating conditions for widespread ownership of property and production. Personal, cooperative, and social ownership are all valid in a just society. Workers’ rights and a family wage must be ensured, and those who cannot work should receive income adequate for full participation in society.

Recognizing labor unions and worker-run cooperatives, and wanting to avoid both super capitalism and Communism.

Care for the Environment

Cultivation and good stewardship ought to characterize the relationship between humanity and creation. The earth and its fruits are universally destined for the benefit of all people. Both government and civil society have a responsibility to protect natural resources, now and for future generations.

I agree. Our planet is our only home.

 

[lpetrich]

Finally, from the American Solidarity Party:

Peace and International Solidarity

Peace is the fruit of justice and requires solidarity among peoples and nations. Aid and trade policies must advance justice, sustainability, and human flourishing. Diplomatic and nonviolent means of resolution must be exhausted before violent means can be considered. Military action must strictly adhere to just-war principles.

I agree. I am not an absolute pacifist, but I agree on avoiding military force as far as is reasonable.

All in all, I like much of the ASP's platform, though much of it would have to be worked out in detail, and I don't like what it says about gender issues.

I think that if the ASP and other such parties are to have any future in politics, they must operate as PAC's to elect candidates in the two major parties. The ASP is somewhat out of place, because while right-wingers might like it on gender issues, the rest of its platform is centrist to center-left Democrat.

 

[lpetrich]

 Duverger's law
Duverger: The Electoral System

Maurice Duverger, "Factors in a Two-Party and Multiparty System,"
in Party Politics and Pressure Groups
(New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1972), pp. 23-32.

The Technical Factor: The Electoral System

To these socio-economic and historical factors a technical factor must be added: the electoral system. I expressed its effects in 1946 in the formulation of three sociological laws: (1) a majority vote on one ballot is conducive to a two-party system; (2) proportional representation is conducive to a multiparty system; (3) a majority vote on two ballots is conducive to a multiparty system, inclined toward forming coalitions.

The brutal finality of a majority vote on a single ballot forces parties with similar tendencies to regroup their forces at the risk of being overwhelmingly defeated.

Then describing vote splitting and the spoiler effect. Also describing how all but the two largest parties tend to be shut out.

Then

In a system of proportional representation, the situation is quite different. The very principle of proportional representation explains the multiplicity of parties it produces. Since every minority, no matter how weak it may be, is assured of representation in the legislature, nothing prevents the formation of splinter parties, often separated only by mere shades of opinion

then

In a system in which elections arc decided by a majority vote on the second of two ballots, political parties are numerous because the existence of a second ballot permits each party to test its chances on the first one without risking irrevocable defeat through the splintering of parties holding similar views; the regrouping occurs on the second ballot through the game of "withdrawals."

In effect, top-two nonpartisan runoffs, like in CA and WA.

 

[lpetrich]

Cornel West "Why I LEFT The Green Party" (Interview Clip) - YouTube - interviewed by Sabby Sabs

CW talked at length about how in the Green Party he had to attend a lot of GP events and compete with other candidates for the GP nomination. What did he expect?

He wanted to focus on the outside world rather than on what's inside the GP.

He also said that the GP has a rather limited appeal, having a reputation as mainly focused on environmentalism and not racial justice or gender justice or economic justice, and he wanted a broader campaign than on environmentalism.

 

[lpetrich]

Another one bites the dust.
Will Hurd ends long-shot GOP presidential campaign, endorses Nikki Haley - The Washington Post

noting Will Hurd on X: "When I first entered the Republican presidential primary field in June, …" / X

When I first entered the Republican presidential primary field in June, I knew I was a dark horse candidate with a path to victory that would contain many obstacles. But as I traveled across the country, I met so many Americans who believed in my campaign’s message of unity and common sense.

... While I appreciate all the time and energy our supporters have given, it is important to recognize the realities of the political landscape and the need to consolidate our party around one person to defeat both Donald Trump and President Biden. I urge donors, voters, and other candidates to unite around an alternative candidate to Trump. Otherwise, we will repeat the same errors as in 2016. If the Republican party nominates Donald Trump or the various personalities jockeying to imitate his divisive, crass behavior, we will lose.

In a Wall Street Journal essay published Monday, Hurd argued the Republican Party is running out of time to defeat Trump.

“The time is now. If we wait much longer, we will anoint Mr. Trump as the leader of our party,” the former CIA officer wrote. “While I have many friends running who represent the right direction for the party and America, Ms. Haley has the clearest path to victory, the character and credentials to lead, the willingness to take on Mr. Trump, and the conservative record needed to beat Joe Biden.”

Noting
Nikki Haley Can Beat Donald Trump - WSJ - "DeSantis isn’t up to the task, and it’s too late for a new entrant."


GOP candidate drops out, echoes Mitt Romney’s call to back one Trump challenger

In the statement, Hurd endorsed former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, calling her “a leader who can unite us” and “navigate the complex challenges we face.”

“Ambassador Haley has shown a willingness to articulate a different vision for the country than Donald Trump and has an unmatched grasp on the complexities of our foreign policy,” Hurd said.

 

[lpetrich]

Republicans attack Robert Kennedy Jr. as he launches independent bid - The Washington Post - "Donald Trump’s campaign joins the Republican National Committee in attacking his nascent bid, as Democrats outside his immediate family largely stay silent"

The Republican National Committee called him “just another radical, far-left Democrat.”

“Make no mistake — a Democrat in Independent’s clothing is still a Democrat. RFK Jr. cannot hide from his record of endorsing Hillary, supporting the Green New Deal, fighting against the Keystone Pipeline, and praising AOC’s tax hikes — he is your typical elitist liberal and voters won’t be fooled,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement.

Another one said that “RFK candidacy is nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy to cash in on his family’s name.”

RFKJr himself:

Kennedy spoke Monday about American voters who had been “left behind” and “belittled by a smug elite that has rigged the game in its favor." That language echoes Trump’s appeals, though Kennedy has been a fierce critic of many aspects of Trump’s politics.

“Americans are wary and tired of the culture war, the phony slogans, the politicians who use the partisan blame game,” Kennedy said. “And people believe that the divisions are purposely orchestrated and getting us to hate each other is all part of the scam.”

It's all a big conspiracy, of course.