The Shale Oill Bubble?

[NobleSavage]

Interesting site: http://shalebubble.org/ and article at Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/when-can-we-call-the-u-s-shale-boom-a-bubble-.html

By my own math:

World oil consumption 94 million barrels a day.

World oil shale recoverable 345 billion barrels.

So about 11 years worth if we were consuming 100% oil shale, but there is still conventional oil. So I say, not a bubble and not a "revolution". The oil shale buys us time, but we need to seriously work on getting off fossil fuels.

I think a lot of towns will experience boom bust cycles as fracking has a very high depletion rate - About 70% to 90% depletion in the first year. Shit like this in Williston, North Dakota will not last. A lot of people will migrate to the area and then they will be left with their dick in their hand as the town turn into Flint, Michigan.



http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/06/a-report-from-the-bakken-oil-fields-where-the-jobless-rate-is-0-9-and-walmart-is-paying-2-4-times-the-minimum-wage/?utm_source=aei&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=060914

 

[dismal]

It is the nature of any oil play to peak and fade.

Also to appear as a drop in the bucket, though 345 billion barrels is more than a few drops.

Not sure how one defines "bubble", but this is probably better termed a "boom". It's real enough while it lasts.

 

[ksen]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure bubbles don't last 11 years.

 

[tupac chopra]

But remember there are very large corporate fees to be had by organising shale oil and fracking projects. So even if estimates prove to be misleading, a select few will profit handsomely.

 

[barbos]

Interesting site: http://shalebubble.org/ and article at Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/when-can-we-call-the-u-s-shale-boom-a-bubble-.html

By my own math:

World oil consumption 94 million barrels a day

Yes, that's 2.5L per person per day. That's a lot, especially considering I spread it over all 6bil people.
In US it's much higher.

 

[Derec]

Yes, that's 2.5L per person per day. That's a lot, especially considering I spread it over all 6bil people.
In US it's much higher.

Note that this includes oil used for mining, manufacturing, shipping, agriculture etc. and not only for individual transport (cars, buses, planes). Put in that context it does not seem that high.

 

[Derec]

So about 11 years worth if we were consuming 100% oil shale, but there is still conventional oil. So I say, not a bubble and not a "revolution".

As you say there is conventional oil. There is also other non-conventional oil such as Athabasca oil sands.
I also don't think you could ramp up shale production to 95 Mbbl/day even if you wanted. A more realistic production figure from shale would be around 10 Mbbl/day which would make the 345 Gbbl last about a century.

The oil shale buys us time, but we need to seriously work on getting off fossil fuels.

Well we are, for example with electric cars. But the transition will take decades.

I think a lot of towns will experience boom bust cycles as fracking has a very high depletion rate - About 70% to 90% depletion in the first year. Shit like this in Williston, North Dakota will not last. A lot of people will migrate to the area and then they will be left with their dick in their hand as the town turn into Flint, Michigan.

Well those that migrate to a boom town can also migrate away to the next one. It's not like there will be a shortage of oil projects in the coming years. Arctic drilling, expansion of Athabasca oil sands, maybe even ANWR if the politicians ever get their heads out of their asses and open it for development.

 

[barbos]

Yes, that's 2.5L per person per day. That's a lot, especially considering I spread it over all 6bil people.
In US it's much higher.

Note that this includes oil used for mining, manufacturing, shipping, agriculture etc. and not only for individual transport (cars, buses, planes). Put in that context it does not seem that high.

It is still insanely high.
By the way, it's mostly transportation of one kind or another.
And what do you mean by mining?

 

[Derec]

It is still insanely high.

Meh, I use a bit more than a gallon (US) of gasoline in my car daily. And that's only for the car and I'm on the low side around here.

By the way, it's mostly transportation of one kind or another.

But much of the transportation is indirect. The products (including groceries) must be shipped to the store. The raw materials must be shipped to factories (or farms).

And what do you mean by mining?

The large mining equipment runs mostly on oil distillates.

 

[ksen]

That bottom pic looks like it could be a boss in final fantasy.

 

[barbos]

mining is tiny part of it.
It's mostly transportation.

 

[Derec]

mining is tiny part of it.
It's mostly transportation.

It adds up. And yes, transportation is the biggest chunk, at ~70% but it includes things like moving raw materials to factories and moving finished products to consumers.
My whole point is that oil use is much more than what an individual deals with directly, i.e. gas/diesel purchases. Seen in that context, 2.5L per day and person is not that much.

 

[barbos]

mining is tiny part of it.
It's mostly transportation.

It adds up. And yes, transportation is the biggest chunk, at ~70% but it includes things like moving raw materials to factories and moving finished products to consumers.

It's mostly moving people in cars.

 

[Derec]

It's mostly moving people in cars.

According to NRDC, 40% of oil in the US is used by "passenger vehicles" which also includes buses, not only cars.
Outside the US the percentage should be even lower than that due to lesser dependency on car travel.

So while a huge chunk the rest is hardly negligible.

 

[barbos]

It's mostly moving people in cars.

According to NRDC, 40% of oil in the US is used by "passenger vehicles" which also includes buses, not only cars.
Outside the US the percentage should be even lower than that due to lesser dependency on car travel.

So while a huge chunk the rest is hardly negligible.

Incorrect.
70% of oil is used for transportation and here is distribution within transportation:

So cars and SUV/trucks consume 62% of oil based fuel. Big trucks moving stuff around is only 20%
and of 30% of oil not used for transportation most simply can not be used because it's heavy fractions left from distillation, goes to asphalt, etc.

 

[dismal]

In the US it's mostly transportation as oil has been priced out of most other uses. Though some portion of the barrel is not able to be converted to transportation fuels, refineries try to make as much gasoline/diesel/jet as possible.

In other countries oil is still used more for other things (heating, electric power, etc.)

I could dig out the data from EIA but it doesn't seem to have much relevance to the topic.

 

[Derec]

Incorrect.
70% of oil is used for transportation and here is distribution within transportation:

So cars and SUV/trucks consume 62% of oil based fuel. Big trucks moving stuff around is only 20%.

Note that your chart adds up to 100%. Cars use 34% of the 70% transportation share, or 24% of the total. Pickups and SUVs are 20% of the total. So not that different from my numbers especially since commercially used light trucks are not "passenger vehicles" anyway.

 

[barbos]

Once again, 70% goes into transportation, not 40%.
70% goes into transportation.
And the most of the rest 30% most likely would go there too if they could.