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Trump campaign pulling TV ads?

lpetrich

lpetrich

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The Trump campaign is pulling ads in some of the swing states that Trump needs to win - a rather odd move.


Trump Campaign Ads Pulled Back In Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin - October 7, 2020, at 4:11 p.m. ET
Donald Trump Is Canceling TV Ads In Midwest States That Made Him President

“I don’t think the spin is in any way congruent with the reality,” one Republican strategist said of the Trump campaign's messaging.

...
He’s been off the local airwaves completely in Iowa and Ohio. The campaign also has given up at least $2 million worth of reservations in both Michigan and Wisconsin since early September. And in Minnesota, a state Trump almost won four years ago and has expressed confidence in flipping, his team already has chopped about $5 million from its projected fall TV budget.

... The Trump campaign, meanwhile, according to data shared by Democratic ad trackers, has in recent weeks boosted its TV presence in the Sun Belt battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, and Georgia — and Nevada, a state Trump lost in 2016.

As Trump’s retreat in Iowa and Ohio became more pronounced this week, his advisers dismissed it as a sign of strength, despite polls that show him essentially tied with Biden in both states. And Biden’s campaign has accelerated its advertising in Ohio, which at the beginning of the 2020 cycle many Democrats did not believe would be a top-tier swing state.
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‘Extremely Confident’ Trump Campaign Pulls Midwest Ad Buys, Moves Focus To Sun Belt - Oct 7, 2020,06:22pm EDT
President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has pulled millions of dollars in TV from Midwestern states that voted red in 2016 — but where recent polls put him behind Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden — to focus on Sun Belt swing states where Trump has even more ground to make up.

Trump’s campaign pulled $2.5 million in ads from Ohio and $820,000 from ads in Iowa, CNN reported Monday, states where recent polls show Trump was behind by 5 points and 1 point, respectively.

His campaign has also cancelled at least $2 million in ad buys in both Michigan and Wisconsin, and shaved $5 million from its projected fall TV budget in Minnesota.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign has pumped up its TV presence across Sun Belt states like Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona where Biden has a much greater lead in the polls against Trump – in Florida, which Trump won in 2016, he’s trailing Biden by 11 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
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Strapped for cash, Trump pulls ad spending in N.H., other states - 10/12/2020 8:24:33 AM
Ohio, Iowa

Trump campaign pulls ads in key states as poll numbers slump | The Independent - 13 October 2020 13:44
According to Newsweek and Advertising Analytics, the president has pulled ad-time totalling $17 million across Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire, where polls show him behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

In Ohio and Iowa in particular, recent polls have shown Mr Trump behind or almost tied with Mr Biden, despite having won those states in 2016.

The Democrat has, in turn, pushed into Midwestern states that were once considered safe for Mr Trump, with increased ad spending and in-person campaign visits.
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Wisconsin's place in the battleground states as Trump campaign pulls ad dollars away towards Pennsylvania, Florida
Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign over the airwaves in Wisconsin has taken on an outsized proportion of political ads as President Donald Trump’s campaign pulls their political ad dollars away. As polls from state and national sources continue to point to a steady Biden lead throughout the year, a report from the Wesleyan Media Project found spending from both Biden and pro-Biden groups heavily outnumbered Trump ads throughout the state in the past few weeks.
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Are they trying to stop spending so they can keep the money, knowing they will lose? If they pull the money and instead spend it at Trump properties for election night "galas" and "watching parties" then trump gets to keep whatever is currently remaining....
 
Rhea said:
Are they trying to stop spending so they can keep the money, knowing they will lose? If they pull the money and instead spend it at Trump properties for election night "galas" and "watching parties" then trump gets to keep whatever is currently remaining....
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I think they've given up on winning it fairly.
 
Rhea said:
Are they trying to stop spending so they can keep the money, knowing they will lose? If they pull the money and instead spend it at Trump properties for election night "galas" and "watching parties" then trump gets to keep whatever is currently remaining....
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Probably saving money for all the lawsuits they gotta pay for. I guess some are going to be dismissed if thry don't come across with fees.
 
Trump Team Unveils $55 Million Ad Blitz on a Day of Scattershot Attacks - The New York Times
While Mr. Trump is trying to recreate certain conditions of the 2016 campaign, he has not achieved his own level of relative discipline in the final two weeks that year. Back then, he tempered some of his incendiary comments and tweets.

His performance so far this week does not suggest that is in the offing.

In Arizona, he bounced from joking about the perils for a president of engaging with corporate officials while seeking donations to airing a litany of grievances against people including former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, the Bidens, Dr. Fauci again, and two female NBC News hosts, one of whom recently interviewed him and the other of whom is set to moderate the final debate.

He also praised himself for straying from the prepared speech on his teleprompter.

...
The ads will be funded by the campaign and the Republican National Committee, and will focus mostly on the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt, including Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin.
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So the Trump campaign is planning a comeback in some of these states. Let's see how that goes.
 
 
This is how horrible it is.
Grace Panetta on Twitter: "The Trump campaign’s total cash on hand is only $6 million more than the $57 million that @harrisonjaime, a US Senate candidate, raised in Q3 alone" / Twitter

Trump projects an image of being some genius business leader, but the only thing he seems good at is bullshitting. His underlings don't seem to be much better.

Saagar Enjeti notes that Trump's campaign burned through some $1 billion since 2017 and Krystal Ball noted ads in places like DC and the Super Bowl. The Trump campaign did a lot of grassroots fundraising, but spent some 77 cents for every dollar raised. So it wasn't a very good return on investment.

Democratic super PAC Future Forward and Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz are spending $100 million against Trump - Vox
Silicon Valley megadonors unleash a last-minute, $100 million barrage of ads against Trump

Facebook billionaire co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has put more than $20 million into a little-known Democratic super PAC that is spending big.

...
The super PAC, called Future Forward, has remained under the radar but is spending more than $100 million on television and digital in the final month of the campaign — more than any other group — on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outside of the Biden campaign itself. And it has been leading a separate, previously unreported $28 million proposed campaign to elect a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas, Recode has learned

...
Like other Silicon Valley donors new to politics in the Trump era, Moskovitz has sought to bring the brainy, data-driven approach that he has pioneered in his philanthropy to his political program in 2020. He has tried to calculate the “cost-per-net-Democratic-vote,” combing through academic literature to mathematically determine where each marginal dollar from him can make the biggest difference. Other significant Moskovitz bets this cycle have included millions to the Voter Participation Center, a voter-turnout organization that has been supercharged by tech money over the last two years, and Vote Tripling, a “relational organizing” approach to encourage friends to vote.

But the lead conclusion from Moskovitz’s research has been to invest in late TV ads that come just before Election Day, when the ads are still fresh on the minds of voters.
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Okay, I see it, but how can Republicans be short of campaign $$$? I thought the year started with all kinds of news stories about Trump's war chest. Was that the fake news? Anyone have a link to a source that can explain the shortfall?
 
At his rally in Macon, GA on Friday Trump suggested he might have to leave the country if he loses. Sounds like Plan B is already underway.

On FoxNews Sunday with Chris Wallace Carl Rove brought in his handy white board to show how Biden is spending money in 7 states that Trump won in 2016 vs Trump spending in only 2 states that went to Clinton, saying "it puts Trump in a bad place in having to defend".
 
Trump is running scared. All of the polls show him at least 8 points behind Biden. He lost support after the first debate. His town hall did not appear to help his support.

Now, Trump is running out of money. Apparently this billionaire is unwilling or unable to spend a significant amount of his own funds to help him get re-elected.
 
ideologyhunter said:
Okay, I see it, but how can Republicans be short of campaign $$$? I thought the year started with all kinds of news stories about Trump's war chest. Was that the fake news? Anyone have a link to a source that can explain the shortfall?
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Trump bought a $10 million Super Bowl ad when he didn’t yet have a challenger. He tapped his political organization to cover exorbitant legal fees related to his impeachment. Aides made flashy displays of their newfound wealth — including a fleet of luxury vehicles purchased by Brad Parscale, his former campaign manager.

Meanwhile, a web of limited liability companies hid more than $356 million in spending from disclosure, records show.
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A group of grifters grifting and grifting...
 
Bloomberg knocks Trump back on his heels in Florida - POLITICO - "The former New York City mayor’s spending is forcing the president to dig deep in the key swing state and enabling the Biden campaign to spend ad dollars elsewhere."

Bloomberg's campaigners are spending some $100 million on Florida.
Bloomberg’s massive advertising and ground-game spending, which began roughly a month ago, has thrown Trump into a defensive crouch across the arc of Sunbelt states. As a result, the president‘s campaign has scaled back its TV ad buys in crucial Northern swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — a vacuum being filled by a constellation of outside political groups backing Joe Biden.

...
Since the beginning of September, Trump has added more than $6 million to his total in ad spending in Florida, according to Advertising Analytics. During that same period of time, with Democrats freed up to attack elsewhere, the Trump campaign has also been forced to plow more than $7 million in ad spending into Georgia — a state he was once expected to win easily — and nearly $6 million in Arizona, another state he won in 2016.

Trump also decreased planned spending by nearly $13 million in Ohio, more than $6 million in Minnesota and nearly $3 million in Wisconsin, reducing his advertising footprint in the region.
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KB & SE mentioned that Florida is a state with a lot of electoral votes that will count its votes quickly, so it will soon be evident whether or not Trump has a chance to win. So if Biden wins Florida, it will be game over for Trump unless he wins big in a lot of other swing states.
 
The thought is, Trump can't lose Florida, but he needs PA, MI, and WI too! Florida is unethically expensive to advertise in. Resources wasted there should hurt WI, PA, MI, and NV. Should. In the real world, actions have consequences. Trump seems to be that entangled particle though that has the opposite reaction as the main consequence reaction.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
The thought is, Trump can't lose Florida, but he needs PA, MI, and WI too! Florida is unethically expensive to advertise in. Resources wasted there should hurt WI, PA, MI, and NV. Should. In the real world, actions have consequences. Trump seems to be that entangled particle though that has the opposite reaction as the main consequence reaction.
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538
Michigan - Biden is up +8.1%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.2%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +6.3%
National - Biden is up +9.9%
Nevada - Biden is up +6.5%
North Carolina - Biden is up +3.1%
Florida - Biden is up +3.6%

Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Ohio are essentially tied. Here is where Trump should be spending his money.


I don't think money is going to save Der Trumpster. His running around at Super Spreader Events saying stupid things are not going to get Democrats to switch and the independents have abandoned him.
 
Hope so. I'd love to see the political ads end. November 3rd cannot come fast enough.
 
The question for me is, with his numbers down and staying down, and not looking like he can do anything to save them - do his sycophants realize it? Or are they absolutely convinced that he’s ahead?

And to Terrell’s point - anyone sick of ads should lobby hard for an end to the electoral college. That is the only reason you see all those ads. It’s the only reason that concentrating adds in one area has any meaning.
 
Rhea said:
do his sycophants realize it? Or are they absolutely convinced that he’s ahead?
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It's their job to convince him he's ahead. Probanly have to convince themselves so they don't roll their eyes or spend time saying, "Oh, shit, you were serious."
And to Terrell’s point - anyone sick of ads should lobby hard for an end to the electoral college. That is the only reason you see all those ads. It’s the only reason that concentrating adds in one area has any meaning.
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Or, just ban political ads for 11 months of the year. Introduce the legislation November 4th, no advertising more than thirty days before an election.
 
From Yahoo news

In one of his most bizarre and incoherent performances to date, president Donald Trump on Tuesday night told a Pennsylvania rally "nobody wants me" before cutting the event short and dancing off the stage to YMCA.Outmuscled financially and trailing Joe Biden in most national and battleground polls, Mr Trump did not appear to be his usual energetic self, as he addressed thousands of Make America Great Again supporters crammed into a chilly and dark Erie International Airport.
Two weeks out from election day the president, 74, complained about the temperature, which had been hovering around 10C (50F) telling the crowd he was only there because he was losing, a highly unusual move – even for a president as unpredictable as Mr Trump.

...

All together now, Ohhhhhh, isn't that just too bad!


As has been the case at recent rallies, the president then trailed off the stage dancing to YMCA, the 1970s hit by Village People. Footage from the rally shows the president with his feet planted firmly to the ground while bending alternate knees and punching the air.


It's fun to stay at Club Fed
It's fun to stay at Club Fed
 
Rhea said:
The question for me is, with his numbers down and staying down, and not looking like he can do anything to save them - do his sycophants realize it? Or are they absolutely convinced that he’s ahead?
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They're sad that so many people are in the grip of the corrupt Bidens' communist threat. But still optimistic that God will provide another election day miracle. That IME of course...

And to Terrell’s point - anyone sick of ads should lobby hard for an end to the electoral college. That is the only reason you see all those ads. It’s the only reason that concentrating adds in one area has any meaning.
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Popular vote would be nice, but in the meanwhile - Can't we just go to publicly financed elections, PLEASE?
 
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