Turkey shoots down Russian Jet

[tupac chopra]

Would Turkey do something so dangerous unless ity had been okayed by Washington?
George Abert, Formerly Of Air Force Intelligence think that they were put up to it. Who knows. It was certainly rash, and unlikely to pay off.

Turkey is going Islamist. They aren't going to care much about what we want.

They probably don't even care that we want them in NATO if that is the case, which will no doubt begin to cause problems on the present trajectory

 

[barbos]

Turkey is important but pretty secondary part of NATO. NATO discipline interfere with Erdogan's vision of Turkey as the main player in islamic world and Middle East

 

[Jayjay]

Turkey is going Islamist. They aren't going to care much about what we want.

More like Erdogan is going islamist. Turkish Army is strictly secular and they already tried to intervene but failed. But if Erdogan will keep going in that direction they will really intervene.

Ten years ago, that worry may have been valid. Turkey's political system used to be based on regular military coups that kept the islamists in check. But since Erdogan came to power, the old army establishment has been effectively neutered via constitutional amendments and strategic appointments of Erdogan loyalists.

 

[J842P]

More like Erdogan is going islamist. Turkish Army is strictly secular and they already tried to intervene but failed. But if Erdogan will keep going in that direction they will really intervene.

Ten years ago, that worry may have been valid. Turkey's political system used to be based on regular military coups that kept the islamists in check. But since Erdogan came to power, the old army establishment has been effectively neutered via constitutional amendments and strategic appointments of Erdogan loyalists.

Can you elaborate for the benefit of my understanding? A coup is by definition illegal, so it isn't obvious to me how changing the constitution, i.e. the law, limits the army's ability to overthrow the government by force.

 

[barbos]

Ten years ago, that worry may have been valid. Turkey's political system used to be based on regular military coups that kept the islamists in check. But since Erdogan came to power, the old army establishment has been effectively neutered via constitutional amendments and strategic appointments of Erdogan loyalists.

Can you elaborate for the benefit of my understanding? A coup is by definition illegal, so it isn't obvious to me how changing the constitution, i.e. the law, limits the army's ability to overthrow the government by force.

Military coups are legal in Turkey. But yes, Erdogan is trying to make them illegal.

 

[Jayjay]

Ten years ago, that worry may have been valid. Turkey's political system used to be based on regular military coups that kept the islamists in check. But since Erdogan came to power, the old army establishment has been effectively neutered via constitutional amendments and strategic appointments of Erdogan loyalists.

Can you elaborate for the benefit of my understanding? A coup is by definition illegal, so it isn't obvious to me how changing the constitution, i.e. the law, limits the army's ability to overthrow the government by force.

Coups are made much easier if military already has institutionalized political power, and if the constitution makes the military "guardians" of certain values like kemalism or secularism in broad terms, that gives it a legal cover to carry it out.

 

[Will Wiley]

Strangely this incident appears to have been predicted back in October. Though I'd be grateful if Barbos could check the google translation.

Turkish President Erdogan is about to bring down Russian planes to Syria to put relations between Russia and Turkey to the brink of war. This should help him in his campaign and saved from possible destruction and the end of his political career. With such a disturbing message came Turkish blogger, known as fuat avni. He works for several years, and his exposure of the government's plans are often true.
Our sources in Turkey believe that Erdogan founded fear of defeat, ready to plunge his country into war hysteria, beating Russian planes in the sky of Syria under the pretext that they had violated Turkish airspace.

http://www.msk.kp.ru/daily/26447.5/3317924/

 

[barbos]

Strangely this incident appears to have been predicted back in October. Though I'd be grateful if Barbos could check the google translation.

Turkish President Erdogan is about to bring down Russian planes to Syria to put relations between Russia and Turkey to the brink of war. This should help him in his campaign and saved from possible destruction and the end of his political career. With such a disturbing message came Turkish blogger, known as fuat avni. He works for several years, and his exposure of the government's plans are often true.
Our sources in Turkey believe that Erdogan founded fear of defeat, ready to plunge his country into war hysteria, beating Russian planes in the sky of Syria under the pretext that they had violated Turkish airspace.

http://www.msk.kp.ru/daily/26447.5/3317924/

Meaning was translated more less correctly.
This apparently some turkish blogger who has sources in the government. And this particular source is opposed to Erdogan.
Anyway, elections were over by the time he shot the plane, Maybe turkish AirForce failed to ambush russians in time and Erdogan forgot to cancel his order after he won the elections.
Anyway, Kurds are the biggest winners in all of this, because Erdogan has to stop bombing them now. I mean Syrian air space is closed for Turkey now.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Turkey is going Islamist. They aren't going to care much about what we want.

More like Erdogan is going islamist. Turkish Army is strictly secular and they already tried to intervene but failed. But if Erdogan will keep going in that direction they will really intervene.

Yeah, it's more Erdogan than the whole country but he's certainly leading the country that way.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

According to this analysis, neither side is telling the truth.

 

[Jayjay]

Erdogan should pull a page from Putin's playbook and justify its support for Turkmen rebels the same way Russia justified its intervention in Georgia and Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

Erdogan should pull a page from Putin's playbook and justify its support for Turkmen rebels the same way Russia justified its "intervention" in Georgia and Ukraine.

Fixed for you. He should have waited when Russia actually attacked Turkish forces and had a referendum.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

According to this analysis, neither side is telling the truth.

Big problem: The analysis of how far the plane flew assumes a constant velocity of the plane--something that most certainly isn't true. The engines failed, the plane would slow down. Looking at the video you can see this--it was flying along, it was going down at a steep angle by the time it went in.

 

[barbos]

It does look like russian planes have in fact violated turkish space, Russian military are dumb lying about that.

But I went to google maps and checked, that pimple is in fact 2 km wide, even less than I thought. It is indeed 7 seconds of flight, therefore turks are definetely lying about 10 warnings in 5 minutes. 5 minutes before the incident these planes were probably on the ground.
It is clear that turks were pretty much ambushing russian planes there. Their own data proves that.
There were no warnings or turks are broadcasting these stupid warnings all day long regardless of of the situation, so russians simply started ignoring them.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

According to this analysis, neither side is telling the truth.

Big problem: The analysis of how far the plane flew assumes a constant velocity of the plane--something that most certainly isn't true. The engines failed, the plane would slow down. Looking at the video you can see this--it was flying along, it was going down at a steep angle by the time it went in.

Fair enough, that may be a problem for the times they estimate.

However, that's not a problem for the conclusions that neither side is telling the truth. If you are correct, then the Turkish position look even worse than the analysis says, for the following reason:

They assumed a constant speed since the plane was hit until it crashed, and concluded the speed was 960 kph. From that, they concluded that the plane was not in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, but for no more than 7 seconds. If the plane was slowing down and the initial speed was actually higher than that, then the plane would have been in Turkish airspace for even less than 7 seconds. Moreover, with an initial speed far exceeding 980 kph, the point the analysis made about the warnings being speculative (which is a weak point) is only strengthened.

Or do you think the 17 seconds count also the time after the plane was hit?
Even then, the numbers don't add up. The plane would have to have been hit in less than 7 seconds after entering Turkeys airspace, then remain in Turkish airspace for over 10 seconds after getting hit, and then crash after 20 more seconds in Syria. So, the plane would have to cover 8 km in those 30 seconds, but in the first 10+seconds (the fastest after getting hit), it was all the time in Turkish airspace, so it covered no more than 2 km, and then covered 6km in only 20 seconds, while traveling more slowly. But that's inconsistent.

 

[barbos]

Big problem: The analysis of how far the plane flew assumes a constant velocity of the plane--something that most certainly isn't true. The engines failed, the plane would slow down. Looking at the video you can see this--it was flying along, it was going down at a steep angle by the time it went in.

Fair enough, that may be a problem for the times they estimate.

However, that's not a problem for the conclusions that neither side is telling the truth. If you are correct, then the Turkish position look even worse than the analysis says, for the following reason:

They assumed a constant speed since the plane was hit until it crashed, and concluded the speed was 960 kph. From that, they concluded that the plane was not in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, but for no more than 7 seconds. If the plane was slowing down and the initial speed was actually higher than that, then the plane would have been in Turkish airspace for even less than 7 seconds. Moreover, with an initial speed far exceeding 980 kph, the point the analysis made about the warnings being speculative (which is a weak point) is only strengthened.

Or do you think the 17 seconds count also the time after the plane was hit?
Even then, the numbers don't add up. The plane would have to have been hit in less than 7 seconds after entering Turkeys airspace, then remain in Turkish airspace for over 10 seconds after getting hit, and then crash after 20 more seconds in Syria. So, the plane would have to cover 8 km in those 30 seconds, but in the first 10+seconds (the fastest after getting hit), it was all the time in Turkish airspace, so it covered no more than 2 km, and then covered 6km in only 20 seconds, while traveling more slowly. But that's inconsistent.

I would go other way around. Knowing the crash position and normal speed and altitude I would calculate position during hit. if we do all that we will most likely find out that plane was hit over Syria.

Actually I looked closely at these two pictures and I am not so sure Russians are lying anymore. I can't read turkish but I think both pictures agree on crash and hit position, they are both in Syria.

Russian path does look like plane changed its direction after the hit and these Belgian Newtonian physicists claim that's unlikely. First of all, it's possible that pilots turned the plane after the hit themselves, or even before the hit trying to avoid the missile. Second of all, the path is pretty crude representation, it may have been more smooth than the picture. Either way, plane crashed 8-10 km from alleged border crossing.
Turks were planning to shoot that plane from the get-go, otherwise they would not have enough time.
And I just googled turn radius of the jet fighters and it's all in the range of 4 km at these speeds. There is simply not enough space for F-16 to do what turks claim. That pimple is too small.
Yep, F16 can't turn that fast.
at 300 m/s to have 1000m turn radius, they would have to have 300*300./1000 = 90m^2/s= 9g acceleration. F-16 can probably do that but that's highly unrecommended and not every pilot can keep his shit together. So chances are, turks violated Syrian space to do this and did it long before russians were even close to violating theirs. This was all premeditated shoot down.

 

[Jayjay]

Erdogan should pull a page from Putin's playbook and justify its support for Turkmen rebels the same way Russia justified its "intervention" in Georgia and Ukraine.

Fixed for you. He should have waited when Russia actually attacked Turkish forces and had a referendum.

Well, Russia did attack Turkmen rebels in Syria which is equivalent to Ukraine attacking the separatists in Donbass or Georgia attacking South Ossetians. Or at least it could be framed as such for propaganda purposes.

 

[Jayjay]

Fair enough, that may be a problem for the times they estimate.

However, that's not a problem for the conclusions that neither side is telling the truth. If you are correct, then the Turkish position look even worse than the analysis says, for the following reason:

They assumed a constant speed since the plane was hit until it crashed, and concluded the speed was 960 kph. From that, they concluded that the plane was not in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, but for no more than 7 seconds. If the plane was slowing down and the initial speed was actually higher than that, then the plane would have been in Turkish airspace for even less than 7 seconds. Moreover, with an initial speed far exceeding 980 kph, the point the analysis made about the warnings being speculative (which is a weak point) is only strengthened.

Or do you think the 17 seconds count also the time after the plane was hit?
Even then, the numbers don't add up. The plane would have to have been hit in less than 7 seconds after entering Turkeys airspace, then remain in Turkish airspace for over 10 seconds after getting hit, and then crash after 20 more seconds in Syria. So, the plane would have to cover 8 km in those 30 seconds, but in the first 10+seconds (the fastest after getting hit), it was all the time in Turkish airspace, so it covered no more than 2 km, and then covered 6km in only 20 seconds, while traveling more slowly. But that's inconsistent.

I would go other way around. Knowing the crash position and normal speed and altitude I would calculate position during hit. if we do all that we will most likely find out that plane was hit over Syria.

Actually I looked closely at these two pictures and I am not so sure Russians are lying anymore. I can't read turkish but I think both pictures agree on crash and hit position, they are both in Syria.

Russian path does look like plane changed its direction after the hit and these Belgian Newtonian physicists claim that's unlikely. First of all, it's possible that pilots turned the plane after the hit themselves, or even before the hit trying to avoid the missile. Second of all, the path is pretty crude representation, it may have been more smooth than the picture. Either way, plane crashed 8-10 km from alleged border crossing.
Turks were planning to shoot that plane from the get-go, otherwise they would not have enough time.
And I just googled turn radius of the jet fighters and it's all in the range of 4 km at these speeds. There is simply not enough space for F-16 to do what turks claim. That pimple is too small.
Yep, F16 can't turn that fast.
at 300 m/s to have 1000m turn radius, they would have to have 300*300./1000 = 90m^2/s= 9g acceleration. F-16 can probably do that but that's highly unrecommended and not every pilot can keep his shit together. So chances are, turks violated Syrian space to do this and did it long before russians were even close to violating theirs. This was all premeditated shoot down.

Wouldn't it make more sense that the Turks shot the plane from their side, but had to have crossed to Syria afterwards to turn back?

Regarding turn radius, the nearly 90-degree turn that Russian map has looks rather suspicious. Even if they were trying to dodge the missile, is the plane physically capable of that. But apparently Russia now has a new map, but still, it seems rather unlikely why they would go around the Turkish airspace, then turn straight up north towards Turkish space again, as they would then have to turn sharply to west anyway after a few miles. That kind of zigzag doesn't look like any kind of sensible flight path.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I would go other way around. Knowing the crash position and normal speed and altitude I would calculate position during hit. if we do all that we will most likely find out that plane was hit over Syria.

It doesn't matter where the plane was hit. It matters where the plane was when the missile was fired.

 

[barbos]

I would go other way around. Knowing the crash position and normal speed and altitude I would calculate position during hit. if we do all that we will most likely find out that plane was hit over Syria.

Actually I looked closely at these two pictures and I am not so sure Russians are lying anymore. I can't read turkish but I think both pictures agree on crash and hit position, they are both in Syria.

Russian path does look like plane changed its direction after the hit and these Belgian Newtonian physicists claim that's unlikely. First of all, it's possible that pilots turned the plane after the hit themselves, or even before the hit trying to avoid the missile. Second of all, the path is pretty crude representation, it may have been more smooth than the picture. Either way, plane crashed 8-10 km from alleged border crossing.
Turks were planning to shoot that plane from the get-go, otherwise they would not have enough time.
And I just googled turn radius of the jet fighters and it's all in the range of 4 km at these speeds. There is simply not enough space for F-16 to do what turks claim. That pimple is too small.
Yep, F16 can't turn that fast.
at 300 m/s to have 1000m turn radius, they would have to have 300*300./1000 = 90m^2/s= 9g acceleration. F-16 can probably do that but that's highly unrecommended and not every pilot can keep his shit together. So chances are, turks violated Syrian space to do this and did it long before russians were even close to violating theirs. This was all premeditated shoot down.

Wouldn't it make more sense that the Turks shot the plane from their side, but had to have crossed to Syria afterwards to turn back?

Yes, but why bother? Turks were flying in Syria anyway. Either way, they had to violate Syrian space to do that and are lying now.

Regarding turn radius, the nearly 90-degree turn that Russian map has looks rather suspicious.

The path is a very crude representation from few control points. Of course it's not possible to turn instantly. Turkish picture also have sharp "turns"

Even if they were trying to dodge the missile, is the plane physically capable of that. But apparently Russia now has a new map, but still, it seems rather unlikely why they would go around the Turkish airspace, then turn straight up north towards Turkish space again, as they would then have to turn sharply to west anyway after a few miles. That kind of zigzag doesn't look like any kind of sensible flight path.

Weird but not impossible. Belgian physicists are paying too much attention to that. They should be paying attention to impossible path F16 took