Unauthorized Immigrants Prolong the Life of Medicare's Trust Fund

[ksen]

Paper: http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/10.1007_s11606-015-3418-z.pdf

KEY RESULTS: From 2000 to 2011, unauthorized immigrants contributed $2.2 to $3.8 billion more than they withdrew annually (a total surplus of $35.1 billion). Had unauthorized immigrants neither contributed to nor withdrawn from the Trust Fund during those 11 years, it would become insolvent in 2029—1 year earlier than currently predicted. If 10 % of unauthorized immigrants became authorized annually for the subsequent 7 years, Trust Fund surpluses contributed by unauthorized immigrants would total $45.7 billion.

CONCLUSIONS: Unauthorized immigrants have prolonged the life of the Medicare Trust Fund. Policies that curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants may accelerate the Trust Fund’s depletion.

So we can look forward to conservatives not using this talking point anymore?

 

[dismal]

Policies that curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants may accelerate the Trust Fund’s depletion.

Making them authorized is a policy that curtails the influx of unauthorized immigrants.

 

[ksen]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

 

[dismal]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

 

[ksen]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

 

[dismal]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

CONCLUSIONS: Unauthorized immigrants have prolonged the life of the Medicare Trust Fund. Policies that curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants may accelerate the Trust Fund’s depletion.

Surely a policy that made some or all unauthorized immigrants authorized would be a policy that curtailed the number of unauthorized immigrants.

Why are you even arguing this?

 

[ksen]

Surely a policy that made some or all unauthorized immigrants authorized would be a policy that curtailed the number of unauthorized immigrants.

Not necessarily, why would you think so?

 

[dismal]

Surely a policy that made some or all unauthorized immigrants authorized would be a policy that curtailed the number of unauthorized immigrants.

Not necessarily, why would you think so?

Let's say Bob is an unauthorized immigrant from Saskatchewan. Bob sneaks across the border, gets a fake social security number (123-45-6798) and takes a job a lazy American won't do because he gets plenty to eat on food stamps. Bob starts paying social security and medicare taxes under an account he will never use, propping up the system.

Now, you adopt a policy making Bob into an authorized immigrant - what happens?

Bob is now paying the same amount of taxes but probably only funding 80% of the costs he himself imposes on the system like a regular American.

 

[ksen]

Now, you adopt a policy making Bob into an authorized immigrant - what happens?

Bob becomes authorized. What does that have to do with curtailing the influx of other unauthorized immigrants?

 

[dismal]

Now, you adopt a policy making Bob into an authorized immigrant - what happens?

Bob becomes authorized. What does that have to do with curtailing the influx of other unauthorized immigrants?

You do understand that it is not literally the influx of immigrants that results in surpluses? It is whether they pay in taxes or receive benefits?

 

[ksen]

Maybe you can show me where the report didn't mean literally what it said.

 

[Bronzeage]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

There's more where they came from. Of all the potential shortages, unauthorized immigrants is one thing we will always have plenty of.

 

[dismal]

Maybe you can show me where the report didn't mean literally what it said.

Did you read the report?

Its all about whether people pay in versus whether they get benefits.

If you bring in lots of people poor immigrants and tax them without giving them benefits the system is more solvent. (Huzzah! Rah, Progressivism!)

If you convert them to people who pay about the same taxes and get benefits the system is less solvent.

- - - Updated - - -

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

There's more where they came from. Of all the potential shortages, unauthorized immigrants is one thing we will always have plenty of.

If you authorize all of them you won't have any unauthorized immigrants. As this is tautological I'm surprised people would argue otherwise. Even on the internet.

 

[ksen]

If you convert them to people who pay about the same taxes and get benefits the system is less solvent.

From the report:

If 10% of unauthorized immigrants became authorized annually for the subsequent 7 years, Trust Fund surpluses contributed by unauthorized immigrants would total $45.7 billion.

Did you read the report?

Did you? Because the report said if you authorize even just 10% a year for 7 years the surplus goes up over $10 billion from the current surplus due to unauthorized immigrants.

 

[Bronzeage]

Did you read the report?

Its all about whether people pay in versus whether they get benefits.

If you bring in lots of people poor immigrants and tax them without giving them benefits the system is more solvent. (Huzzah! Rah, Progressivism!)

If you convert them to people who pay about the same taxes and get benefits the system is less solvent.

- - - Updated - - -

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

There's more where they came from. Of all the potential shortages, unauthorized immigrants is one thing we will always have plenty of.

If you authorize all of them you won't have any unauthorized immigrants. As this is tautological I'm surprised people would argue otherwise. Even on the internet.

I never said anything about authorizing them. I need someone to work when I go in social security.

 

[dismal]

From the report:

If 10% of unauthorized immigrants became authorized annually for the subsequent 7 years, Trust Fund surpluses contributed by unauthorized immigrants would total $45.7 billion.

Did you read the report?

Did you? Because the report said if you authorize even just 10% a year for 7 years the surplus goes up over $10 billion from the current surplus due to unauthorized immigrants.

Did you read the report?

They arrived at this "conclusion" by assuming 1) newly authorized immigrants would pay 10% more in taxes 2) they would consume no more benefits than they currently do as unauthorized immigrants. (Huzzah! Yay, progressivism. More taxes and less benefits for the poor people we're helping!)

They also note somewhere in there that unauthorized immigrants consume far less (about 1/10th - 0.1 for you metric fans) in benefits currently than reglar mericans. Seems odd, this second assumption, given that.

 

[jonatha]

The paper didn't say "make them authorized." It said "curtail the influx of unauthorized immigrants" which is not the same thing as authorizing them.

Authorizing lots of unauthorized immigrants would result in a decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants.

Justice Scalia, is that you?