US Nonvoters: half the adult population

[lpetrich]

Half of Americans Don’t Vote. What Are They Thinking? - POLITICO

In the broadest terms, the study found the average chronic nonvoter is a married, nonreligious white woman between 56 and 73 who works full time but makes less than $50,000 a year. She is most likely to identify as a moderate, lean toward the Democratic Party, get her news from television and to have a very unfavorable impression of both political parties and President Donald Trump. She has a 77 percent chance of being registered to vote and says she doesn’t because she doesn’t like the candidates but claims to be certain she will vote in November. But the study’s real lesson is that averages are deceiving, concealing more than they reveal.

Nonvoters are an eclectic faction with distinctive blocs that support Democrats and Republicans—but don’t show up to cast their ballots—and an even larger group that is alienated from a political system it finds bewildering, corrupt, irrelevant or some combination thereof. These blocs are so large that when a campaign is able to motivate even a portion of one, it can swing an election, which may have been what allowed Trump to bust through the “blue wall” in the Great Lakes region in 2016 and Barack Obama to flip North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Indiana in 2008. What these blocs do in November could well decide the 2020 presidential election.

The study confirms that nonvoters as a whole are fairly reflective of the broader electorate in terms of political preferences. If they were to all vote in November, 33 percent say they would support Democrats, 30 percent Republicans and 18 percent a third-party candidate. More surprisingly perhaps, and potentially more consequential for November, these numbers gently tilt in the opposite direction in many battleground states, with nonvoters choosing Trump over the as-yet-undetermined Democratic nominee 36%-28% in Pennsylvania, 34%-25% in Arizona and 30%-29% in New Hampshire. Wisconsin and Michigan mirror the national average, favoring the Democrat 33%-31% and 32%-31%, respectively, while in Georgia the margin is 34%-29%. This data challenges many long-standing assumptions of political experts.

There is a sizable number of nonvoting "passive liberals" and a somewhat smaller number of nonvoting "passive conservatives" - and some people who are totally disengaged from politics entirely.

“These are people who are generally below the poverty line, with a lot of job turnover and family disruption, whose lives are busy living paycheck to paycheck. You don’t really have a lot of time to watch the news or to vote, and the paperwork necessary to vote is annoying.”

For much of the 20th century, political scientists imagined citizens decided to vote as a private, individual calculus of self-interest. Each person supposedly considered the candidates and his or her positions and weighed the potential costs and benefits that might accrue if one or the other won and placed it against the time and energy of voting.

...
Turns out voting is a social phenomenon, according to Meredith Rolfe of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. “Some people vote no matter what, but other people vote because the people around them are voting,” she says. “If you see somebody contributing money to a musician on a sidewalk, you are something like 80 percent more likely to contribute too.”

Which may be a key to getting more people to vote.

 

[lpetrich]

The 100 Million Project - on US nonvoters

During the 2016 presidential election nearly 100 million people, almost half of the eligible voting population in America, did not cast a vote.

... Non-voters do not necessarily fall into a certain gender, race, class, education level, or even political affiliation, and there are many reasons why they don’t vote.

• They don't like the candidates - 17%
• Vote doesn't matter - 12%
• The system is corrupt - 8%
• Not interested - 8%
• No time for voting - 8%
• They don't know the candidates - 8%

... Compared to active voters, non-voters are more likely to be less educated, lower income, non-white and unmarried.

The six types of nonvoters in that study:

Established Progressives
21% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they are well established both in life and in their left-leaning political beliefs.

Traditional Conservatives
17% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they hold the most conservative political beliefs and are more likely to be enjoying a comfortable retirement.

Modern Moderates
20% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they are left-leaning moderates working hard as they approach middle age.

Indifferent Average
17% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they appear very middle-of-the-road in their politics, engagement and situation in life.

Unattached Apoliticals
17% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they are young and staunchly independent, both politically and in life.

Underemployed Unsures
8.4% of non-voters
Compared to other non-voters, they are the least resourced and engaged across the board, and unsure of where they stand on politics.

 

[lpetrich]

In addition to consuming less news and information on political issues, non-voters are also less certain that decisions made in Washington personally impact them.

One of the clearest findings of the study is that non-voters feel (and are) under-informed on political issues.

Compared with active voters, non-voter media diets involve less traditional news and more entertainment, and these individuals were less likely to grow up in a family that discussed current events together.

However, there’s one group even less interested and informed than habitual non-voters — the emerging electorate.

Eligible voters between
18-24
This group's behavior and trends will shape how the overall electorate moves in the coming years.

However, they may get more politically involved as they age. What party was perceived as dominant and how popular it was will determine what party they like in later years.

The emerging electorate are more dissatisfied with President Trump than current voters and non-voters. A significant portion would rather vote for the Democratic Party’s nominee (38%) than re-elect President Trump (22%)

Are we losing a generation of voters?

 

[lpetrich]

We are More in Common

Our organization’s name reflects our vision: to build more united, inclusive and resilient societies in which people believe that what they have in common is stronger than what divides them.

More in Common’s mission is to understand the forces driving us apart, to find common ground and help to bring people together to tackle our shared challenges.

The US version:
The Hidden Tribes of America - Hidden Tribes

Our research concludes that we have become a set of tribes, with different codes, values, and even facts. In our public debates, it seems that we no longer just disagree. We reject each other’s premises and doubt each other’s motives. We question each other’s character. We block our ears to diverse perspectives. At home, polarization is souring personal relationships, ruining Thanksgiving dinners, and driving families apart.

In their research, they identify seven:

Progressive Activists (8 percent of the population) are deeply concerned with issues concerning equity, fairness, and America's direction today. They tend to be more secular, cosmopolitan, and highly engaged with social media.

Traditional Liberals (11 percent of the population) tend to be cautious, rational, and idealistic. They value tolerance and compromise. They place great faith in institutions.

Passive Liberals (15 percent of the population) tend to feel isolated from their communities. They are insecure in their beliefs and try to avoid political conversations. They have a fatalistic view of politics and feel that the circumstances of their lives are beyond their control.

The Politically Disengaged (26 percent of the population) are untrusting, suspicious about external threats, conspiratorially minded, and pessimistic about progress. They tend to be patriotic yet detached from politics.

Moderates (15 percent of the population) are engaged in their communities, well informed, and civic-minded. Their faith is often an important part of their lives. They shy away from extremism of any sort.

Traditional Conservatives (19 percent of the population) tend to be religious, patriotic, and highly moralistic. They believe deeply in personal responsibility and self-reliance.

Devoted Conservatives (6 percent of the population) are deeply engaged with politics and hold strident, uncompromising views. They feel that America is embattled, and they perceive themselves as the last defenders of traditional values that are under threat.

Profiles of the Hidden Tribes - Hidden Tribes describes them in more detail.

The farthest apart are the Progressive Activists and the Devoted Conservatives.

(Progressive Activists) and (Traditional Conservatives + Devoted Conservatives) form the Wings. Each one is relatively united internally, and politics often seems like a shouting match between the two.

The other four form the Exhausted Majority. They have a wide range of views, so they are not as unified as the Wings. But they are turned off from politics because of what a shouting match it can be. Traditional Liberals are often on the side of Progressive Activists, but they are more willing to compromise.

 

[lpetrich]

Through our questions, we measured several aspects of tribalism, including individuals’ pride in their group and the degree to which they believed their group members had a lot in common. Overall, we found the Wings showed far more tribalism than the middle groups.

People vary in how much threat that they perceive from their surroundings.

Some people see the world as a largely safe place with isolated pockets of violence. Others see the world as threatening, with isolated pockets of tranquility

This is correlated with positions on immigrants and terrorism.

Progressive Activists also stand out from other groups as the most secure of any tribe by far. They view threats to their safety as fearmongering by their opponents, not a clear and present danger to their wellbeing. Simultaneously, Progressive Activists hold the most pessimistic views about the country's future.

Parenting style correlates with authoritarianism.

For example, people who endorsed a strict parenting style are more likely to oppose gay marriage, believe that America needs more faith and religion than reason and science, and worry about a decline in family values. These connections with parenting style are shown in the figure below.

Jonathan Haidt's Moral Foundations: Fairness/Cheating, Care/Harm, Authority/Subversion, Purity/Disgust, Loyalty/Betrayal

Progressive Activists and Traditional and Passive Liberals tended to care more about Harm and Fairness than the other foundations, while right-leaning groups such as Traditional and Devoted Conservatives cared about all five foundations.

Subjects' concern about each of the foundations closely tracks their views on other issues. For example, the degree to which people prioritize Loyalty strongly predicts the view that the Confederate flag symbolizes Southern pride, and people who prioritize Authority are most likely to support the Trump administration’s decision to ban travel from several Muslim-majority countries.

Personal agency and responsibility:

Conservatives tend to emphasize independence, responsibility and self-reliance, while liberals focus more on systemic injustices and collective responsibilities.

For example, the more people believe that luck played a role in life, the more likely they are to support Black Lives Matter activists. By contrast, people who believe that personal responsibility plays a bigger role are more than four times more likely to strongly approve of Donald Trump’s performance than those who believe that luck and circumstance did.

But there are a few issues that got broad agreement.

For example, a full 81 percent of the population―including Devoted Conservatives, who tend to be the most skeptical when it comes to questions of race―agrees that racism continues to be an at least somewhat serious problem in the United States.

(Dreamers - people brought in as children by illegal immigrants) Three-quarters of all Americans believe there should be a pathway for these individuals to obtain citizenship through serving in the military or attending college.

One issue that Americans from most tribes regularly discuss is how they feel that people have become too quick to take offense and criticize others’ use of language.

 

[southernhybrid]

I have personally known numerous women, mostly young and white, some middle aged and white, and some young or older and black, who never vote. When I've asked them why, the most common response is "My vote doesn't count", or Elections are rigged". I helped register two black women when Obama ran for president. One was very young and the other was her mother. MY closest black friend's daughter and son have never voted and they are in their 50s. Her granddaughter does vote. My neighbor and I recently convinced a very poor white middle aged woman to register to vote. Every older black female who I know personally votes. I think they appreciate the vote more than a lot of other groups do. Those are all anecdotal examples, but of course if we look at the statistics, we know that Americans have a very poor record when it comes to voting.

Another huge problem are people who only vote in presidential elections. I've tried to talk at least one into voting in the midterms, to no avail. But then, if you all recall, George Carlin always claimed that he never voted, so apparently all kinds of people feel as if voting doesn't matter.

I've also heard, but never spoken to anyone who thinks that voting means you will probably be called for jury duty. Most states use all kinds of records to call people for jury. And, I think it's awful that a person would give up their right to vote out of fear of being called for jury duty.

I don't know how we change this. Bernie has been claiming he is going to bring out a huge number of new voters, but so far, there is no evidence that he's done that. Maybe voting should be mandatory. Vote or pay a fine. Make it easy to vote. I just don't see that happening here.

 

[bigfield]

This article lists some suggestions to improve voter turnout:
https://www.americanprogress.org/is...53319/increasing-voter-participation-america/

Automatic voter registration
Same-day voter registration
Preregistration
Online registration
Early voting
No-excuse absentee voting
Vote-at-home with vote centers
Restore rights for formerly incarcerated people
Strengthen civics education in schools
Invest in integrated voter engagement and outreach

But I think they missed an obvious one: stop holding elections on a fucking Tuesday.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

 

[Jarhyn]

I have personally known numerous women, mostly young and white, some middle aged and white, and some young or older and black, who never vote. When I've asked them why, the most common response is "My vote doesn't count", or Elections are rigged". I helped register two black women when Obama ran for president. One was very young and the other was her mother. MY closest black friend's daughter and son have never voted and they are in their 50s. Her granddaughter does vote. My neighbor and I recently convinced a very poor white middle aged woman to register to vote. Every older black female who I know personally votes. I think they appreciate the vote more than a lot of other groups do. Those are all anecdotal examples, but of course if we look at the statistics, we know that Americans have a very poor record when it comes to voting.

Another huge problem are people who only vote in presidential elections. I've tried to talk at least one into voting in the midterms, to no avail. But then, if you all recall, George Carlin always claimed that he never voted, so apparently all kinds of people feel as if voting doesn't matter.

I've also heard, but never spoken to anyone who thinks that voting means you will probably be called for jury duty. Most states use all kinds of records to call people for jury. And, I think it's awful that a person would give up their right to vote out of fear of being called for jury duty.

I don't know how we change this. Bernie has been claiming he is going to bring out a huge number of new voters, but so far, there is no evidence that he's done that. Maybe voting should be mandatory. Vote or pay a fine. Make it easy to vote. I just don't see that happening here.

I personally look forward to jury duty. It's a chance to apply my philosophy on behalf of an issue set before me.

 

[Xoxarle1]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

Or because the polling station is a fair distance away, or because there are long lines to vote and they don't have the time to stand around for 3-4 hours or more, or because they work 2 or 3 jobs and don't have the time, or because they are poor and rural and lack the documentation required to meet newer standards to get a voter card and/or don't have the time to drive to a govt office only open 1 day a week a fair drive away, or because they don't trust the electronic voting machines, or because they don't see either candidate addressing their priorities, or because they think their vote is wasted because they are in a heavily blue or red state and a gerrymandered district, or because they were purged accidently or deliberately from voter rolls by partisan state oversight, or they are ex-felons and don't have the right to vote or the state just granted them the right but only if they pay off debts they can't afford to pay off, or .....

 

[lpetrich]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

Panglossian nonsense.

 

[Trausti]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

In Washington State, we receive ballots in the mail and have two weeks to mail back (postage pre-paid) or put in a dropbox. Voter turnout remans low.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

In Washington State, we receive ballots in the mail and have two weeks to mail back (postage pre-paid) or put in a dropbox. Voter turnout remans low.

It remains low because they don't have to vote. How many people would stop at red lights if they didn't have to?

 

[PyramidHead]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

In Washington State, we receive ballots in the mail and have two weeks to mail back (postage pre-paid) or put in a dropbox. Voter turnout remans low.

It remains low because they don't have to vote. How many people would stop at red lights if they didn't have to?

Most people who don't want to die, what kind of inanity are you spouting

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It remains low because they don't have to vote. How many people would stop at red lights if they didn't have to?

Most people who don't want to die, what kind of inanity are you spouting

Last I heard, nobody gets out alive. Has there been a change since I last checked?

 

[Jarhyn]

It remains low because they don't have to vote. How many people would stop at red lights if they didn't have to?

Most people who don't want to die, what kind of inanity are you spouting

Last I heard, nobody gets out alive. Has there been a change since I last checked?

Yeah. Over the last 200 years or so, dying in your first 69 years went from quite likely to fairly optional. That's a pretty big change. It's not a question of if. That was and always has been definite. It's always been a question of "when".

You shouldn't play dumb; people will be inclined to believe you.

 

[lpetrich]

Another reason: the candidates are uninspiring. If you have an inspiring-enough candidate, then you can get more turnout.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Another reason: the candidates are uninspiring. If you have an inspiring-enough candidate, then you can get more turnout.

How inspiring are traffic signals?

If we want people to vote it should be required, not voluntary. I'm not really too crazy about jury duty but I don't have a choice.

 

[southernhybrid]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

Or because the polling station is a fair distance away, or because there are long lines to vote and they don't have the time to stand around for 3-4 hours or more, or because they work 2 or 3 jobs and don't have the time, or because they are poor and rural and lack the documentation required to meet newer standards to get a voter card and/or don't have the time to drive to a govt office only open 1 day a week a fair drive away, or because they don't trust the electronic voting machines, or because they don't see either candidate addressing their priorities, or because they think their vote is wasted because they are in a heavily blue or red state and a gerrymandered district, or because they were purged accidently or deliberately from voter rolls by partisan state oversight, or they are ex-felons and don't have the right to vote or the state just granted them the right but only if they pay off debts they can't afford to pay off, or .....

Those things are also true, but I've known way too many people who choose not to vote. Voter suppression is a different issue, from voter apathy. There are a lot of people who simply don't want to vote. I think that's what some of us find interesting or strange. Unless, you've personally spoken to many of these people, you may not be aware of how common it is for people to choose not to participate in voting. Like I mentioned, even the late George Carlin, an exceptionally smart man, often said that he did't vote.

Voter apathy, for whatever reason, is a serious problem in the US, especially in the south. I've known people who moved but were never motivated to change their voter registration to the new address. I always encourage people to vote. One of the women who I helped register missed the next election. When I asked her why, she said she had to work on Election Day. I told her she had three full weeks to vote in Georgia, including one Saturday and one Sunday. She didn't even know that. She promised me she would never skip voting again, but somehow I doubt she will be true to her word.

 

[ZiprHead]

People don't vote because they don't have to, and can only mean they're satisfied with how things are, despite what they might be saying. All those other reasons are invented for cover.

In Washington State, we receive ballots in the mail and have two weeks to mail back (postage pre-paid) or put in a dropbox. Voter turnout remans low.

Washington state had an election participation rate of almost 78% in the 2016 election.