What Would a Trump Presidency Really Be Like?

[SLD]

OK. Trump continues to do well in the polls, and the race is obviously close - at least for now. He may pull it off, and maybe not. Hopefully Clinton won't do too bad in the debates and she'll slowly rise back up in the polls.

But maybe not.

What would a Trump Presidency really be like?

Would it really result in a foreign war? if so, with whom? Iran? Or is the Trump-Putin bromance likely to keep things in balance there. Putin would tell Trump to lay off Iran, and he would. Trump's obviously not really going to use nuclear weapons. The military would tell him to fuck off if he tried.

Economics: How bad would any ensuing trade war be? Or would he just likely make cosmetic changes to NAFTA and other agreements and declare he's saved America?

I'm just curious what people really truly think he'll do - not whether you think he's crazy, and given the limited power that he'll actually have. What will happen? More of the same?

I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and say likely not as much will change as we feared. We will continue to get blow hard statements from the President, but little will really happen. Like with the famous wall for Mexico; he'll strengthen the existing border protections and claim that's what he meant. He won't deport anymore than Obama did, but will claim he's made huuuuge gains in it. Etc.

Thoughts?

SLD

 

[iolo]

It will be like having a Head of State who is permanently pissed out of his mind, and puking on the crowd.

 

[Keith&Co.]

On the one hand, I don't think much would change because of Trump, because he doesn't really have any plans. Just slogans and sound bites. NO idea what needs to be done to solve the problems he's identified.

What scares me, though, is that he'll delegate everything. If someone can convince him 'I have a plan,' he'll give them the authority to make changes, probably with little oversight. he's already asked someone else to tell him who to pick for SCOTUS.

So it'll be a case of which activist group is the last one to have his ear on any given topic... And if I was a lobbyist, I'd first move to control his office. If I can control who gets access to Trump, I can control who gets delegated powers...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

During the George W. Bush administration, we learned how badly an administration could react to problems. 9/11, Iraq, Katrina, etc...

This is the major job of the President, to deal with the really big shit that happens. Trump has a simple worldview, "Trump is Great!" He really has nothing else to work with. So even if he was the one in charge, he has little to fall back on to make decisions that would affect the lives of thousands to millions.

We know Trump can talk a good game, but he seems to only be able to execute well behind a wall of lawyers. That doesn't work as a President. And when the troubles were buried too high when his casinos were in grave debt, he traded off ownership of the casinos for reduced debt. That also won't work as President.

The worst part of the Trump presidency is quite simply the unknown of how he'd react to anything. If the phone rang at 3 AM, he is quite likely to pick up the phone and yell "You're fired!!!"

And as we saw with George W. Bush, with the Katrina response, bad shit can happen if when the people in charge don't know what they are doing.

 

[funinspace]

OK. Trump continues to do well in the polls, and the race is obviously close - at least for now. He may pull it off, and maybe not. Hopefully Clinton won't do too bad in the debates and she'll slowly rise back up in the polls.

But maybe not.

What would a Trump Presidency really be like?

Would it really result in a foreign war? if so, with whom? Iran? Or is the Trump-Putin bromance likely to keep things in balance there. Putin would tell Trump to lay off Iran, and he would. Trump's obviously not really going to use nuclear weapons. The military would tell him to fuck off if he tried. .

Yeah, I’m not worried about a nuclear war. I think the ‘Trump-Putin bromance’ is 99% hot air. I doubt Trump has much of clue on international relations. Putin probably would consider Trump to be a political clown. I like to use the example of Syria over the last couple years and how it played out, as projecting future flash points is next to impossible. As things heated up over the skies of Syria, it would have been very easy for an egotistical Trump to miscalculate and decide he needed to prove that his balls were bigger, and pushes his generals to push the limits with the Russian fighters/bombers. I’m not talking about starting WWIII, but it could certainly become an ugly debacle. Sure, like the Turkish shooting down of one jet, 2-3 planes shot down might not escalate out of control. But, Congress wouldn’t be able to say no fast enough to prevent such a mishap. I would trust Clinton far more to not do something totally stupid in the foreign arena. Some people were in a panic thinking that Reagan was so bellicose that he might start WWIII. Personally, I think Trump is someone to worry about being too bellicose, ill-tempered, or mismatched for the job. At the same time, odds are still probable that nothing disastrous would happen. After all, how many insanely stupid wars have ‘proper’ presidents gotten us into in the last 100 years….

Economics: How bad would any ensuing trade war be? Or would he just likely make cosmetic changes to NAFTA and other agreements and declare he's saved America?

I’d be more worried about a trade war with Asia. A trade war in today’s economic climate might drive the world economy into a recession, but it would survive it. However, what if the conditions were more like 2009? What if in the next 4 years, the Japanese economy/yen imploded on their sea of massive debt? Would Trump provide the ‘right’ leadership?

I'm just curious what people really truly think he'll do - not whether you think he's crazy, and given the limited power that he'll actually have. What will happen? More of the same?

Yeah, probably more of the same. I’d just feel a lot safer with more of the same with Clinton. It would certainly be a weirder 4 years. But I do think a Trump presidency (unless he turns shockingly normal with winning), would put a strain on the relationships the US has around the world, and increase the speed at which the world becomes more and more multi-polar. Trump is a fancy looking con man IMPOV, so predicting things like SC appointments would be dicey. If he did pull of a win, it would come with a very divided Congress, and probably not too many friends there.

 

[Elixir]

I think the ‘Trump-Putin bromance’ is 99% hot air. ... Putin probably would consider Trump to be a political clown.

I'm sure he already does consider Trump a fat orange-faced clown, and is confident that he could manipulate a President Trump in any way he desires. Probably licking his chops every time he sees that he'd need nothing more than a few Twitter accounts to get whatever reaction he wants to elicit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, I’m not worried about a nuclear war. I think the ‘Trump-Putin bromance’ is 99% hot air. I doubt Trump has much of clue on international relations. Putin probably would consider Trump to be a political clown.

Or featherweight idiot that would easily trade a hotel in Moscow for the rest of Ukraine.

I like to use the example of Syria over the last couple years and how it played out, as projecting future flash points is next to impossible. As things heated up over the skies of Syria, it would have been very easy for an egotistical Trump to miscalculate and decide he needed to prove that his balls were bigger, and pushes his generals to push the limits with the Russian fighters/bombers. I’m not talking about starting WWIII, but it could certainly become an ugly debacle. Sure, like the Turkish shooting down of one jet, 2-3 planes shot down might not escalate out of control. But, Congress wouldn’t be able to say no fast enough to prevent such a mishap. I would trust Clinton far more to not do something totally stupid in the foreign arena. Some people were in a panic thinking that Reagan was so bellicose that he might start WWIII. Personally, I think Trump is someone to worry about being too bellicose, ill-tempered, or mismatched for the job. At the same time, odds are still probable that nothing disastrous would happen.

Well, WWIII is a pretty low bar.

 

[funinspace]

I think the ‘Trump-Putin bromance’ is 99% hot air. ... Putin probably would consider Trump to be a political clown.

I'm sure he already does consider Trump a fat orange-faced clown, and is confident that he could manipulate a President Trump in any way he desires. Probably licking his chops every time he sees that he'd need nothing more than a few Twitter accounts to get whatever reaction he wants to elicit.

Except that when the whole world starts talking about how Trump is more of wimp than Jimmy Carter was, what if Trump decides he needs to prove his balls are bigger?

 

[Tristan Scott]

We will be led by someone who has no desire to take a job that has the limits the Constitution has placed on it. What we will end up with is a leader who will try to bully his way around the rules. He will be restrained from doing some of the more radical things he has proposed, however, if he wins I assume he will also get a Republican congress which means we will continue increasing our debt, and we will have a reactionary court for the next 40 years. There will be no campaign finance reform, no increase in the minimum wage, no tuition help, no medical cost relief and a deepening of the wars in the middle east. The 1% will control more and more of the wealth, which along with deepening racial tensions we will see an increase in domestic violence almost to the point of armed revolution.

 

[funinspace]

We will be led by someone who has no desire to take a job that has the limits the Constitution has placed on it. What we will end up with is a leader who will try to bully his way around the rules. He will be restrained from doing some of the more radical things he has proposed, however, if he wins I assume he will also get a Republican congress which means we will continue increasing our debt, and we will have a reactionary court for the next 40 years. There will be no campaign finance reform, no increase in the minimum wage, no tuition help, no medical cost relief and a deepening of the wars in the middle east. The 1% will control more and more of the wealth, which along with deepening racial tensions we will see an increase in domestic violence almost to the point of armed revolution.

But we will get a real reality TV show live for our entertainment as compensation...

 

[Tristan Scott]

 

[Elixir]

I'm sure he already does consider Trump a fat orange-faced clown, and is confident that he could manipulate a President Trump in any way he desires. Probably licking his chops every time he sees that he'd need nothing more than a few Twitter accounts to get whatever reaction he wants to elicit.

Except that when the whole world starts talking about how Trump is more of wimp than Jimmy Carter was, what if Trump decides he needs to prove his balls are bigger?

I think we just have to trust our pal Vladimir to talk him down. Remind him how much better Melania looks than Rosalynn, and he should calm down a little.

 

[SLD]

Yeah, I’m not worried about a nuclear war. I think the ‘Trump-Putin bromance’ is 99% hot air. I doubt Trump has much of clue on international relations. Putin probably would consider Trump to be a political clown. I like to use the example of Syria over the last couple years and how it played out, as projecting future flash points is next to impossible. As things heated up over the skies of Syria, it would have been very easy for an egotistical Trump to miscalculate and decide he needed to prove that his balls were bigger, and pushes his generals to push the limits with the Russian fighters/bombers. I’m not talking about starting WWIII, but it could certainly become an ugly debacle. Sure, like the Turkish shooting down of one jet, 2-3 planes shot down might not escalate out of control. But, Congress wouldn’t be able to say no fast enough to prevent such a mishap. I would trust Clinton far more to not do something totally stupid in the foreign arena. Some people were in a panic thinking that Reagan was so bellicose that he might start WWIII. Personally, I think Trump is someone to worry about being too bellicose, ill-tempered, or mismatched for the job. At the same time, odds are still probable that nothing disastrous would happen. After all, how many insanely stupid wars have ‘proper’ presidents gotten us into in the last 100 years….

Economics: How bad would any ensuing trade war be? Or would he just likely make cosmetic changes to NAFTA and other agreements and declare he's saved America?

I’d be more worried about a trade war with Asia. A trade war in today’s economic climate might drive the world economy into a recession, but it would survive it. However, what if the conditions were more like 2009? What if in the next 4 years, the Japanese economy/yen imploded on their sea of massive debt? Would Trump provide the ‘right’ leadership?

I'm just curious what people really truly think he'll do - not whether you think he's crazy, and given the limited power that he'll actually have. What will happen? More of the same?

Yeah, probably more of the same. I’d just feel a lot safer with more of the same with Clinton. It would certainly be a weirder 4 years. But I do think a Trump presidency (unless he turns shockingly normal with winning), would put a strain on the relationships the US has around the world, and increase the speed at which the world becomes more and more multi-polar. Trump is a fancy looking con man IMPOV, so predicting things like SC appointments would be dicey. If he did pull of a win, it would come with a very divided Congress, and probably not too many friends there.

Yes, some good points, but a trade war could indeed prove far more disastrous to the economy than a mere recession. The history of trade wars is not really very positive. Smoot-Hawley drove a recession into a severe depression (according to some). Regardless, it was a terrible economic idea that backfired on us. If that happens again, we're likely to see a severe recession if not a flat out depression, and no monetary room to maneuver. At record low interest rates for the fed, we've got no where to turn. If Trump wants to initiate massive spending cuts at the same time, and tax cuts for the rich, we could indeed see a serious depression again.

But maybe that's the price to learn, once again, that progressives are right and reactionary right wingers are full of shit. Maybe conservative will become a dirty word like liberal.

SLD