What’s the Matter With Polling?

[NobleSavage]

Election polling is in near crisis, and we pollsters know. Two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques. To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify “likely voters,” has become even thornier.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=0


I don't know about you guys, but I'm not paying attention to any of these early presidential polls.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not paying attention to any of these early presidential polls.

You're in good company. Early polling results indicate that that only 25.4% of likely voters are paying attention to polling results at this stage of the campaign.

 

[Keith&Co.]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not paying attention to any of these early presidential polls.

Well, what was the first year that candidates told their followers to claim they were undecided for all polls so that they'd look even stronger in the actual voting with the upsurge in supporters?
That's when I started to seriously ignore efforts to manipulate the media...