Who will win the Democratic nomination for president?

[Derec]

So the last primary debate of the year is in the rear-view mirror, and Iowa is voting in 6 short weeks. The primary field has winnowed some, but not so much that it is obvious who is most likely to win nomination. So, perfect time to speculate and put down your prediction.

The major candidates are, with age at inauguration date 2021:

VP Joe Biden (DE) - 78
View attachment 25351
Forget Donny Two Scoops, I get two whole cones!

Pros: has experience, is well liked (mostly due to association with Obama), would likely be strong in Midwestern states Hillary lost, held his own against Corn Pop
Cons: older than dirt, gaffe prone, his two previous presidential runs went nowhere

Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - 79
View attachment 25356
I got a lot of problems with you people and now you're gonna hear about it!

Pros: has a very dedicated following, Democratic Party has moved left in the recent years
Cons: oldest person running, has suffered a recent heart attack, self-described socialist

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) - 71
View attachment 25358
I thought there'd be wine. And a cave.

Pros: she has a plan for that, like Bernie rides the leftward drift of the Democratic Party, is female, younger than most other frontrunners
Cons: mangled her M4A plan, still very old, claimed to be Indian, probably too left (not just on economics but especially on identity politics) for the general election

Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) - 39
View attachment 25360
I could murder a pork chop just about now. And by the way Liz, that cave wine was delicious!

Pros: young, smart, military experience, unlike all the legislators dominating the field he actually has executive office experience
Cons: possibly too young, only a mayor of a medium sized city, being gay could hurt him with blacks in the primaries and evangelicals in the general

Andrew Yang (NY) - 46
View attachment 25361
Getting fed whipped cream straight from can by a presidential candidate is not normal. But on MATH it is.

Pros: outsider, has an unique issue (automation/AI fundamentally changing the economy necessitating something like UBI), sweet-spot age-wise
Cons: no elected office, no obvious path to nomination, could miss next debate

Mayor Michael Bloomberg (NY) - 78
View attachment 25362
Must protect people from the big gulp!

Pros: EE degree, a refreshing change from JD most others have, can self-fund campaign, ran city that is bigger than all but 11 states
Cons: nanny stater (banned large servings of sugary drinks, wants to keep weed illegal), between Biden and Bernie on age, refusal to seek donation keeps him from the debate stage, path to nomination involves hope of Biden collapse

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) - 60

This campaign is giving me a headache.

Pros: woman, not too old, Mid-western, moderate
Cons: failed to catch fire so far, has reputation of mistreating staffers, wanted Obama to go after adult porn, salad-gate

 

[Derec]

The primaries are still very open. How early states go could make a huge difference. Especially Iowa. If it goes for Sanders, New Hampshire will probably too and we may have a repeat of 2016 - a two-way fight between Sanders and the establishment candidate, probably Biden.

On the other hand, if Buttigieg wins Iowa, Sanders New Hampshire, and Biden South Carolina the nomination would be wide open going into Super Tuesday (3/3) and depending on how those states vote, as wide open afterwards. That would vindicate Bloomberg's strategy and he could pick up state wins and certainly would pick up delegates.

Should be an interesting Spring.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

 

[Patooka]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

 

[barbos]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

If Biden has 30% chance to win but the rest of people are less than 30% individually. The rest combined is 70% hence Biden is less likely to win than somebody else.

 

[Patooka]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

If Biden has 30% chance to win but the rest of people are less than 30% individually. The rest combined is 70% hence Biden is less likely to win than somebody else.

I get the math, but it's "first one past the post" politics. It can also be flipped around; all candidates are likely to lose, but Biden has the least chance to lose. Therefore, the most likely to win. Essentially if someone asked, "Who is most likely to win", an answer like, "Biden, but he's not likely to win" is pretty confusing without qualification.

Personally, I think it is wayyyy too early to predict. One could easily have a preference, but there is six months left before the convention. That's eighteen to nineteen Scaramuccis in Trump time, a lot can happen is such a period.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

I reckon for any given candidate, it is probable that that candidate will lose. But for Biden, probability of a win is higher than it is for Warren, or for Buttigieg, or for Sanders, etc., or for any other given candidate (barbos already explained the idea).

 

[Patooka]

I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

I reckon for any given candidate, it is probable that that candidate will lose. But for Biden, probability of a win is higher than it is for Warren, or for Buttigieg, or for Sanders, etc., or for any other given candidate (barbos already explained the idea).

That's a pretty convoluted way of saying "I'm not sure".

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.

 

[abaddon]

Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.

Click the "View Poll Results", it's not anonymous.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.

Click the "View Poll Results", it's not anonymous.

Oh. I didn't know that was a thing. Thanks.


Hmm does t seem to work with my phone. Must be why I missed that.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I reckon for any given candidate, it is probable that that candidate will lose. But for Biden, probability of a win is higher than it is for Warren, or for Buttigieg, or for Sanders, etc., or for any other given candidate (barbos already explained the idea).

That's a pretty convoluted way of saying "I'm not sure".

No, it is not. If I say "I'm not sure", I'm providing much less information about my assessment than if I answer as I did.

 

[Derec]

Hmm does t seem to work with my phone. Must be why I missed that.

If you click on one of the number of votes it will take you to a view that tells you who voted for what. It should work on phones too.

 

[Derec]

I get the math, but it's "first one past the post" politics.

It's about probabilities of winning, not vote percentages.
In any case, democratic primaries are allocating delegates proportionally but with a 15% cutoff.

Personally, I think it is wayyyy too early to predict. One could easily have a preference, but there is six months left before the convention. That's eighteen to nineteen Scaramuccis in Trump time, a lot can happen is such a period.

It would not be fun to speculate if Biden (or somebody else) was already racing toward the convention with a big lead.

 

[barbos]

Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.

Click the "View Poll Results", it's not anonymous.

Oh. I didn't know that was a thing. Thanks.


Hmm does t seem to work with my phone. Must be why I missed that.

https://talkfreethought.org/poll.php?pollid=209&do=showresults

 

[Harry Bosch]

My gut tells me that Biden is the safest choice to beat Trump. But my heart is more with Amy and/or Buttigieg.

 

[TV and credit cards]

My gut tells me that Biden is the safest choice to beat Trump. But my heart is more with Amy and/or Buttigieg.

I initially favored Klobuchar. The comments about how hard she can be on staff concerned me. Perhaps I missed it, but I never heard her address this. I suppose most people would blow this off as a minor issue but I see it as a failure of leadership. You're never going to get the best work out of your people by berating them. If someone is not living up to your expectations, it's fine to fire them but you should never create an atmosphere where people dread coming to work.

I hope Buttigieg can overcome the attacks from the left. It will prepare him for the attacks from the right if he makes it that far. Good training.

I don't know who will be in the Oval Office come 2021 but I bet it will still smell of old people.

 

[Harry Bosch]

My gut tells me that Biden is the safest choice to beat Trump. But my heart is more with Amy and/or Buttigieg.

I initially favored Klobuchar. The comments about how hard she can be on staff concerned me. Perhaps I missed it, but I never heard her address this. I suppose most people would blow this off as a minor issue but I see it as a failure of leadership. You're never going to get the best work out of your people by berating them. If someone is not living up to your expectations, it's fine to fire them but you should never create an atmosphere where people dread coming to work.

I hope Buttigieg can overcome the attacks from the left. It will prepare him for the attacks from the right if he makes it that far. Good training.

I don't know who will be in the Oval Office come 2021 but I bet it will still smell of old people.

Yes, I was bothered by this also. I'll do some research on this and get back to you. However, I will say that there is a double standard on women. I've found that guys in leadership positions who are stern and demand excellence are favored. When women do and act the same, they are called cold blooded and heartless. I'll bet that some of the charges against her were greatly exaggerated. But I'll check...

Secondly, I'm also disturbed that there aren't more bright younger people interested in politics on the left. I think that we are in trouble there.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

My gut tells me that Biden is the safest choice to beat Trump. But my heart is more with Amy and/or Buttigieg.

Why? Of the remaining candidates for the primary, I think Biden is one of the most likely to lose to Trump. He's a gaffe machine.Trump would run him over.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

My gut tells me that Biden is the safest choice to beat Trump. But my heart is more with Amy and/or Buttigieg.

I initially favored Klobuchar. The comments about how hard she can be on staff concerned me. Perhaps I missed it, but I never heard her address this. I suppose most people would blow this off as a minor issue but I see it as a failure of leadership. You're never going to get the best work out of your people by berating them. If someone is not living up to your expectations, it's fine to fire them but you should never create an atmosphere where people dread coming to work.

I hope Buttigieg can overcome the attacks from the left. It will prepare him for the attacks from the right if he makes it that far. Good training.

I don't know who will be in the Oval Office come 2021 but I bet it will still smell of old people.

What initially attracted you to Klobuchar? I've yet to hear her say anything unique. She strikes me as the stand in for if Biden and Buttigieg drop out.