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Will 2015 be the last Canadian federal election under First-past-the-post?

Blahface

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So, both the Liberal Party and the NDP favor getting rid of FPTP. Do the Canadians here believe that they will be able to form a coalition government or will the Conservatives still be able to maintain a hold on power? If they are able to form a coalition, is Trudeau likely to renege on his promise?
 
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So, both the Liberal Party and the NDP favor getting rid of FPTP. Do the Canadians here believe that they will be able to form a coalition government or will the Conservatives still be able to maintain a hold on power? If they are able to form a coalition, is Trudeau likely to reengage on his promise?

If I recall correctly, we had it as an issue item 3 or 4 years ago on a previous ballot, but that may have been the provincial election? It didn't get enough support then. I don't think it will now. People don't know enough about the more viable options.
 
Finally saw the debate. Mulclair I really didn't know before but he impressed me more than anybody else on that stage. I may actually vote NDP this year, for the first time.
 
Finally saw the debate. Mulclair I really didn't know before but he impressed me more than anybody else on that stage. I may actually vote NDP this year, for the first time.

If I were you, I'd vote for whoever is more likely to win between the Liberal and the NDP candidate.
 
Finally saw the debate. Mulclair I really didn't know before but he impressed me more than anybody else on that stage. I may actually vote NDP this year, for the first time.

If I were you, I'd vote for whoever is more likely to win between the Liberal and the NDP candidate.

If there's anyone on the left who doesn't do that, they're idiots. There are a number of ridings which the Conservatives won last time where they squeaked past the second place candidate and there were a large number of votes for the third place guy. The fact that a support level in the mid-30s can get you a majority government is moronic and needs to be changed. Even people who hate the idea of strategic voting need to vote strategically this time around in order to eliminate the need for strategic voting.
 
If there's anyone on the left who doesn't do that, they're idiots. There are a number of ridings which the Conservatives won last time where they squeaked past the second place candidate and there were a large number of votes for the third place guy. The fact that a support level in the mid-30s can get you a majority government is moronic and needs to be changed. Even people who hate the idea of strategic voting need to vote strategically this time around in order to eliminate the need for strategic voting.

Strategic voting is a further degradation of an already dysfunctional system. It panders to the idea of voting in fear of the Conservatives rather than voting in favour of the right representation. It relies heavily on the very same sort of irrationality which cripples the effectiveness of strategic voting in the first place
 
As long as the Liberals and the NDP see themselves as poised to form government without a coalition, I think they'll remain wary for quite some time of joining forces, even if the Conservatives win again, unless it's by a decisive majority (which doesn't seem too likely at the moment), I would not be surprised if the two parties wanted to spend the next four years trying to assert their independence from one another to build up steam for the next election cycle. I think a coalition is even less likely now than it was in 2008, but of course I could be wrong.

I don't know how likely electoral reform will be. It would likely come to a referendum, and I don't know where public opinion sits on the issue.
 
If there's anyone on the left who doesn't do that, they're idiots. There are a number of ridings which the Conservatives won last time where they squeaked past the second place candidate and there were a large number of votes for the third place guy. The fact that a support level in the mid-30s can get you a majority government is moronic and needs to be changed. Even people who hate the idea of strategic voting need to vote strategically this time around in order to eliminate the need for strategic voting.

Strategic voting is a further degradation of an already dysfunctional system. It panders to the idea of voting in fear of the Conservatives rather than voting in favour of the right representation. It relies heavily on the very same sort of irrationality which cripples the effectiveness of strategic voting in the first place

Exactly the point I was making. If you hate the idea of strategic voting, you need to vote strategically in this election. The Conservatives aren't going to agree to anything which changes the status quo since any way that it is done would only hurt them. The Liberals and NDP are talking about changing to a system where it would no longer be necessary.

If you think that the system is dysfunctional, a vote to continue maintaining the same dysfunctional system is a nonsensical one.
 
Exactly the point I was making.

It really isn't. I'm saying strategic voting exacerbates the problem promoting the very same irrational behaviour which has kept us in this same messy state of affairs for decades, and that's even if someone can manage to make it work. I've voted in five federal elections, all of which gave rallying cries for strategic voting, yet the end results have been decreasingly satisfactory. Obviously it could work mathematically if people were all on board, but they won't be.
 
Exactly the point I was making.

It really isn't. I'm saying strategic voting exacerbates the problem promoting the very same irrational behaviour which has kept us in this same messy state of affairs for decades, and that's even if someone can manage to make it work. I've voted in five federal elections, all of which gave rallying cries for strategic voting, yet the end results have been decreasingly satisfactory. Obviously it could work mathematically if people were all on board, but they won't be.

How is what you're saying anything other than the exact point that I'm making? Trudeau and Mulcair both want to get rid of the current first-past-the-post system which produces the argument for strategic voting. If one employes a strategic vote in this one single instance to help ensure that one of them is Prime Minister instead of Harper, the rationale for strategic voting in Canadian elections vanishes entirely forever.

You think that the current messy state of affairs is a problem and yet you're against doing the one thing which has a potential to help ameliorate it.
 
This isn't the one thing to fix it. Strategic voting under the current approach doesn't work; it only promotes irrational voting habits. Voting only to remove the Conservatives is no more rational than voting only out of party loyalty. You will not easily covert a person from one form of irrational party fixated vote to another form of irrational party fixated vote. So you're largely left having to sway the undecideds, the policy voters, and those who don't affiliate strongly with a specific party. Some of them may be willing to cast their vote against the Conservatives with few other concerns, but not all can or will. Instead of asking them to vote strategically against the Conservatives, why not give them reasons to vote for the party favoured to best compete with the Conservatives?

But it's not like problems begin and end there. The closest contested riding in 2011 was Nipissing—Timiskaming. It's easy to say "if just a handful of people would have voted Liberal instead of NDP the Conservatives would have lost the seat", but the reality is the Liberals previously held that seat and their popularity declined. You cannot simply look at the numbers after the polls and ignore the reasons the Liberals saw a decline in support from the previous election. You cannot simply go to that riding and expect the trend to reverse because the Liberals were oh-so-close last election, but neither can you assume the NDP continued their upward momentum. You'd need accurate polling data, and you'd need a clear line of communication to voters from a unified strategic voting organization to pull it off, and neither of those things actually exist in reality.

This riding is even trickier because -- despite the common conception that the Liberals and NDP split the left -- the Liberals are centrist and at times gain and lose votes on the left and right, which was likely the case in 2011. So part of why the Liberals lost the seat in the first place is quite likely because Liberals lost votes to the Conservatives, in which case making an argument if favour of the Liberals based on taking down the Conservatives really doesn't seem as compelling.

Strategic voting initiatives will shift the votes of some targeted voters, but it won't shit them all. Truthfully, in a close riding which has seen some substantial changes over the last eight years, would favouring the Liberals secure a Liberal victory, or would it merely seal an NDP defeat (swap the parties if you like)? I personally do not believe those pushing strategic voting have strong enough resources and answers to give assurances. I think they merely undermine the voting process and stir the pot a little, but for better or worse, it's not clear. The track record on federal elections does not hint it's been for the better, which is not to suggest strategic voting is inherently impractical, but that the approaches seen to date have been at best ineffectual. Even if I could support it ideologically, I don't see much pragmatism in it. I think it is more likely to add confusion to voting than clarity and direction, and the more elections we keep trying for it the longer we're promoting voting based on party-fixations above policy or issues.
 
You don't seem to be aware of what thread you're in. Do you know that we are talking about fixing the problems you're complaining about?
 
You don't seem to be aware of what thread you're in. Do you know that we are talking about fixing the problems you're complaining about?

Please stop repeating that. You very much are not talking about that. You are talking about strategic voting which is not shown to work, is difficult to successfully manage, and arguably undermines the democratic process. Your justification is that the means justifies the ends if it achieves electoral reform, but you are counting your chickens before they are hatched.
 
You don't seem to be aware of what thread you're in. Do you know that we are talking about fixing the problems you're complaining about?

Please stop repeating that. You very much are not talking about that. You are talking about strategic voting which is not shown to work, is difficult to successfully manage, and arguably undermines the democratic process. Your justification is that the means justifies the ends if it achieves electoral reform, but you are counting your chickens before they are hatched.

So, you feel that the curent electoral process is a problem and your options are:

1) Do absolutely nothing about it
2) Help those who want to fix it

And you feel that #1 is the preferable option?
 
1) Do absolutely nothing about it
2) Help those who want to fix it

False dichotomy. Actually, it's total and unmitigated bullshit. I am saying that strategic voting is NOT HELPING. Get that through your skull.

Right, I understand exactly what you're arguing. I'm just saying that you're completely wrong due to the unique circumstances of this election.
 
False dichotomy. Actually, it's total and unmitigated bullshit. I am saying that strategic voting is NOT HELPING. Get that through your skull.

Right, I understand exactly what you're arguing. I'm just saying that you're completely wrong due to the unique circumstances of this election.

You may be thinking that, but you are not saying it. Stop bullshitting me Tom. Make an argument in earnest.

edit: scratch that. Considering you have yet to address anything I've said, this is a waste of time.
 
Right, I understand exactly what you're arguing. I'm just saying that you're completely wrong due to the unique circumstances of this election.

You may be thinking that, but you are not saying it. Stop bullshitting me Tom. Make an argument in earnest.

edit: scratch that. Considering you have yet to address anything I've said, this is a waste of time.

Because you haven't made any relevant points. There's nothing to argue.

We can just agree to disagree about how completely out in left field you are and discuss things with others.
 
Because you haven't made any relevant points. There's nothing to argue.

We can just agree to disagree about how completely out in left field you are and discuss things with others.

It's not relevant that strategic voting has been attempted and failed to achieve the desired outcome in every major election in the last decade? Despite strategic voting efforts against the Conservatives in all of those elections, the Conservatives have increased their number of seats in EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE ELECTIONS. So the onus is on you to present a coherent argument on why what has been ineffectual at best to date will suddenly prove effective this election. Being passive aggressive does not absolve you of that responsibility especially when you enter the thread calling others morons.

It may seem emotionally gratifying to call people morons or conveniently describe them as 'out in left field', but the fact of the matter is, your position runs contrary to historic record, and that's without addressing the philosophical ethical issues at hand. There are real practical complications with achieving effective strategic voting, and operating on a hope and prayer it will all magically come together despite successive failures, especially in the 2011 election which saw one of the more focused strategic voting efforts yet still failed to stem a Conservative majority. Saying 'unique circumstances' is not an argument. In all likelihood it is the decline in popularity of the Conservative party which will undo it this election, not another ineffectual strategic voting push.
 
It's not relevant that strategic voting has been attempted and failed to achieve the desired outcome in every major election in the last decade? Despite strategic voting efforts against the Conservatives in all of those elections, the Conservatives have increased their number of seats in EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE ELECTIONS. So the onus is on you to present a coherent argument on why what has been ineffectual at best to date will suddenly prove effective this election. Being passive aggressive does not absolve you of that responsibility especially when you enter the thread calling others morons.

Wait, are you saying the conservatives won last time because voters were voting strategically? I'd think that it would be because the opposite was true and the Liberal and NDP parties split the vote.
 
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