Will Brazil turn into the next Venezuela?

[SimpleDon]

Will Brazil turn into the next Venezuela?

... will the US?

My girlfriend from Brazil is staying with my wife and me for the weekend. Her husband is an ardent Trump supporter whose business is importing custom printed circuit broads from China and who has rather bizarrely convinced himself that the tariffs that will destroy his business in January are somehow the fault of the all-powerful Democrats in Congress.

Our Brazilian girlfriend is more rational, a moderate, and who proudly cast her very first vote as a citizen of the US for Clinton in 2016, canceling out her husband's vote. We quickly turned away from the subject of her husband and to discuss the parallels between the US with Trump and Brazil with Bolsonaro.

The Brazilian presidential election is this Sunday. The populist, far right, Jair Bolsonaro is leading in the polls and is almost certain to be elected. Like Trump, he campaigning as a pro-gun populist "verbally attacking women, gays and people of color — in a country that is mostly nonwhite", who just a year before the election was considered to be a complete pariah by the country's establishment, who just before the election turned into the champion of the oligarchy.

From the Times article,

But much like President Trump and populist leaders around the world, Mr. Bolsonaro has tapped into a deep well of resentment at the political establishment. He channeled Brazilians’ anger over staggering levels of corruption and crime, presenting himself as the only candidate tough enough to solve them.

What does this have to do with Venezuela and to us in the US?

Like Venezuela Brazil is currently governed by a far left socialist/communist party that is equal parts corrupt and incompetent.

And just as certain, if Bolsonaro does win, which it seems like is the most likely outcome, the people here who periodically post the threads bashing Venezuela will say that the election in Brazil is a triumph of capitalism over socialism, of the always correct right over the always wrong left, and after a brief cheer for themselves and Bolsonaro they will move on to defending the next indefensible Trump tweet.

But like Venezuela, Brazil is suffering in the long term not so much from the party in power as they are from extremism. They are yo-yo-ing between the extreme left and the extreme right. Between authoritarian socialism on the left and authoritarian oligarchic crony capitalism on the right. One is the natural reaction to the other, but neither is desirable. And in a democracy, voting one of the extremes in is certain to eventually make the other extreme more attractive and to be voted in at some point in the future.

The answer is moderation, of course. But it doesn't sell itself. It has to compete against the quick and dirty solutions of both the extremes with the message that the solutions are going to be hard and take a lot of time.

The US isn't there yet. The country has become more conservative in the last fifty years. As a result, both policial parties have moved to the right, both have become more conservative. This means that the Democrats have become more moderate and less extreme and the Republicans have become more extreme moving to the far right.

That leaves those of us with moderate views little choice but to enthusiastically embrace the Democratic party and to work and to donate to assure its success.

Does anyone see a problem with this logic? Am I wrong?

Neither my wife nor my girlfriend saw any problem with this, but then they can't be trusted in these matters because they are in love with me.

 

[Lion IRC]

My girlfriend from Brazil is staying with my wife and me for the weekend. Her husband is a...
Why couldn't your girlfriend"s husband's mistress come and stay as well?

 

[Jarhyn]

My girlfriend from Brazil is staying with my wife and me for the weekend. Her husband is a...
Why couldn't your girlfriend"s husband's mistress come and stay as well?

Maybe because me and my husband's boyfriend have him tied up in our basement and enjoying every minute of it as your sister's concubine plucks his pubes?... always should be someone you really love...


Edit, on a more serious note, yes, if they give into oligarchy, they will be the next Venezuela no doubt.

Also on a more serious note, just because you have a hard time understanding what healthy relationships look like in reality doesn't mean others don't have them...

 

[Axulus]

You can have authoritatianism with a good economy. Take China, for example. What matters as far as destroying an economy goes is the level of government control and how badly it screws up basics like price stability, imports, and the private sector.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The Brazilian presidential election is this Sunday. The populist, far right, Jair Bolsonaro is leading in the polls and is almost certain to be elected.

Bolsonaro and Haddad are almost certain to be 1st and 2nd, respectively. As a result, they will go up against each other in the run-off election. According to the latest polls I'm familiar with, that one is too close to call.

Like Venezuela Brazil is currently governed by a far left socialist/communist party that is equal parts corrupt and incompetent.

That is not the case. Rousseff was removed, and her vice President was from another party, which is pro-market. Dilma and Lula themselves were never nearly as leftists as Maduro or Chávez, though Lula is probably moving to the left, and while his candidate Haddad was more of a centrist, there is a good chance that if he wins, Lula will govern instead. Still, Lula is also not at all likely to go the way of Venezuela, even if he moves further left. He's had two mandates already and nothing like that happened, and he can see from a close distance the Venezuelan disaster.

Also, Bolsonaro also would not implement far left economic policies, but likely a combination of pro-market and protectionist policies. It will not be very good, but not an economic disaster, either.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The Brazilian presidential election is this Sunday. The populist, far right, Jair Bolsonaro is leading in the polls and is almost certain to be elected.

Bolsonaro and Haddad are almost certain to be 1st and 2nd, respectively. As a result, they will go up against each other in the run-off election. According to the latest polls I'm familiar with, that one is too close to call.

Like Venezuela Brazil is currently governed by a far left socialist/communist party that is equal parts corrupt and incompetent.

That is not the case. Rousseff was removed, and her vice President was from another party, which is pro-market. Dilma and Lula themselves were never nearly as leftists as Maduro or Chávez, though Lula is probably moving to the left, and while his candidate Haddad was more of a centrist, there is a good chance that if he wins, Lula will govern instead. Still, Lula is also not at all likely to go the way of Venezuela, even if he moves further left. He's had two mandates already and nothing like that happened, and he can see from a close distance the Venezuelan disaster.

Also, Bolsonaro also would not implement far left economic policies, but likely a combination of pro-market and protectionist policies. It will not be very good, but not an economic disaster, either.

Okay, now Bolsonaro appears almost certain to win the runoff (barring scandals, assassination, or things like that, but that's all very improbable).

I don't think it is going to be anything like Venezuela, though.

 

[Axulus]

Just 8 percent of Brazilians told the Pew Research Center in 2017 that representative democracy is a “very good” form of government – the lowest of all 38 countries surveyed.

Hmmm, that is shockingly low.

Good article about what Bolsonaro presidency will look like:

https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/what-expect-jair-bolsonaro

 

[Deepak]

Venezuela imploded, but a Bolsonaro led Brazil stands to be explosive beyond its borders...

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Venezuela imploded, but a Bolsonaro led Brazil stands to be explosive beyond its borders...

What do you mean?

 

[Deepak]

Venezuela imploded, but a Bolsonaro led Brazil stands to be explosive beyond its borders...

What do you mean?

I mean the guy yearns for the days of dictatorial military rule in Brazil where they were critical of non-proliferation and were vying to project force in their neighborhood. In order to implement his vision on 'law and order' I'm expecting a large push at expanding their conventional military force, with the obvious risks of tension on the border. More than that, if he does start delivering on that vision there's the potential for a humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region. The whole thing seems like a powder keg

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Venezuela imploded, but a Bolsonaro led Brazil stands to be explosive beyond its borders...

What do you mean?

I mean the guy yearns for the days of dictatorial military rule in Brazil where they were critical of non-proliferation and were vying to project force in their neighborhood. In order to implement his vision on 'law and order' I'm expecting a large push at expanding their conventional military force, with the obvious risks of tension on the border. More than that, if he does start delivering on that vision there's the potential for a humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region. The whole thing seems like a powder keg

Bolsonaro will probably further militarize the fight against crime, but he will likely try to reduce fiscal deficit, so there is not much room for a bigger military, or advanced weapons systems, etc. He might make one or two purchases and increase military salaries to keep his constituency happy, but I doubt anything beyond that. But even if he manages to boost the military, it seems also very, very improbable that they would attack any other country. Which border do you have in mind? Venezuela's?

As for the powder keg, I have to say that at least from where I am, that seems very far from a realistic possibility. This region is not fragile with regard to interstate warfare. In that regard, it is pretty peaceful.

 

[Deepak]

I mean the guy yearns for the days of dictatorial military rule in Brazil where they were critical of non-proliferation and were vying to project force in their neighborhood. In order to implement his vision on 'law and order' I'm expecting a large push at expanding their conventional military force, with the obvious risks of tension on the border. More than that, if he does start delivering on that vision there's the potential for a humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region. The whole thing seems like a powder keg

Bolsonaro will probably further militarize the fight against crime, but he will likely try to reduce fiscal deficit, so there is not much room for a bigger military, or advanced weapons systems, etc. He might make one or two purchases and increase military salaries to keep his constituency happy, but I doubt anything beyond that. But even if he manages to boost the military, it seems also very, very improbable that they would attack any other country. Which border do you have in mind? Venezuela's?

As for the powder keg, I have to say that at least from where I am, that seems very far from a realistic possibility. This region is not fragile with regard to interstate warfare. In that regard, it is pretty peaceful.

Venezuela and Colombia aren't really in a position to absorb refugees, nor would that be an easy journey. Crossing southwest would be more likely.

I suppose time will tell, and I'd love to be wrong - but he seems like the type to jettison butter for the budget and not the guns.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I mean the guy yearns for the days of dictatorial military rule in Brazil where they were critical of non-proliferation and were vying to project force in their neighborhood. In order to implement his vision on 'law and order' I'm expecting a large push at expanding their conventional military force, with the obvious risks of tension on the border. More than that, if he does start delivering on that vision there's the potential for a humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region. The whole thing seems like a powder keg

Bolsonaro will probably further militarize the fight against crime, but he will likely try to reduce fiscal deficit, so there is not much room for a bigger military, or advanced weapons systems, etc. He might make one or two purchases and increase military salaries to keep his constituency happy, but I doubt anything beyond that. But even if he manages to boost the military, it seems also very, very improbable that they would attack any other country. Which border do you have in mind? Venezuela's?

As for the powder keg, I have to say that at least from where I am, that seems very far from a realistic possibility. This region is not fragile with regard to interstate warfare. In that regard, it is pretty peaceful.

Venezuela and Colombia aren't really in a position to absorb refugees, nor would that be an easy journey. Crossing southwest would be more likely.

I suppose time will tell, and I'd love to be wrong - but he seems like the type to jettison butter for the budget and not the guns.

Refugees?

I thought you were talking about a hypothetical Brazilian military attack on a neighboring country, which will not happen.

Anyway, Brazilian refugees also seem like a rather unrealistic idea to me. Why would they become refugees?
He's not going to end the programs giving food for the poor. Doing so would not be good for his political career. But still, in any case, that would create internal strife and economic migrations at most, not refugees as far as I can tell. Or would you count them as refugees?

In any case, the border between Argentina and Brazil (and for that matter, Argentina and Paraguay or Argentina and Bolivia) is for practical purposes open, so they could just walk in if they so chose, so, yes, crossing southwest would be more likely. But I'm not sure why Brazilians would want to do that at a rate higher than today. Brazil's economy is growing while Argentina's is shrinking, and that's likely to continue at least in 2019, and maybe beyond.

 

[Jarhyn]

Venezuela and Colombia aren't really in a position to absorb refugees, nor would that be an easy journey. Crossing southwest would be more likely.

I suppose time will tell, and I'd love to be wrong - but he seems like the type to jettison butter for the budget and not the guns.

Refugees?

I thought you were talking about a hypothetical Brazilian military attack on a neighboring country, which will not happen.

Anyway, Brazilian refugees also seem like a rather unrealistic idea to me. Why would they become refugees?
He's not going to end the programs giving food for the poor. Doing so would not be good for his political career. But still, in any case, that would create internal strife and economic migrations at most, not refugees as far as I can tell. Or would you count them as refugees?

In any case, the border between Argentina and Brazil (and for that matter, Argentina and Paraguay or Argentina and Bolivia) is for practical purposes open, so they could just walk in if they so chose, so, yes, crossing southwest would be more likely. But I'm not sure why Brazilians would want to do that at a rate higher than today. Brazil's economy is growing while Argentina's is shrinking, and that's likely to continue at least in 2019, and maybe beyond.

More likely is duerte-style extrajudicial killings, likely against minorities. He has already stated that they didn't do enough torturing and killing when the military dictatorship was happening, and that he would rather his own SON die than be a homosexual. So yeah, there will be plenty of refugees, especially if he pulls a Xi

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I mean the guy yearns for the days of dictatorial military rule in Brazil where they were critical of non-proliferation and were vying to project force in their neighborhood. In order to implement his vision on 'law and order' I'm expecting a large push at expanding their conventional military force, with the obvious risks of tension on the border. More than that, if he does start delivering on that vision there's the potential for a humanitarian crisis in an already fragile region. The whole thing seems like a powder keg

Bolsonaro will probably further militarize the fight against crime, but he will likely try to reduce fiscal deficit, so there is not much room for a bigger military, or advanced weapons systems, etc. He might make one or two purchases and increase military salaries to keep his constituency happy, but I doubt anything beyond that. But even if he manages to boost the military, it seems also very, very improbable that they would attack any other country. Which border do you have in mind? Venezuela's?

As for the powder keg, I have to say that at least from where I am, that seems very far from a realistic possibility. This region is not fragile with regard to interstate warfare. In that regard, it is pretty peaceful.

Venezuela and Colombia aren't really in a position to absorb refugees, nor would that be an easy journey. Crossing southwest would be more likely.

I suppose the good news is that Argentina and Uruguay are about to get a surplus of additional football talent. And if people are real smart, Bolivia as well, because anyone can start for that nation.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Venezuela and Colombia aren't really in a position to absorb refugees, nor would that be an easy journey. Crossing southwest would be more likely.

I suppose time will tell, and I'd love to be wrong - but he seems like the type to jettison butter for the budget and not the guns.

Refugees?

I thought you were talking about a hypothetical Brazilian military attack on a neighboring country, which will not happen.

Anyway, Brazilian refugees also seem like a rather unrealistic idea to me. Why would they become refugees?
He's not going to end the programs giving food for the poor. Doing so would not be good for his political career. But still, in any case, that would create internal strife and economic migrations at most, not refugees as far as I can tell. Or would you count them as refugees?

In any case, the border between Argentina and Brazil (and for that matter, Argentina and Paraguay or Argentina and Bolivia) is for practical purposes open, so they could just walk in if they so chose, so, yes, crossing southwest would be more likely. But I'm not sure why Brazilians would want to do that at a rate higher than today. Brazil's economy is growing while Argentina's is shrinking, and that's likely to continue at least in 2019, and maybe beyond.

More likely is duerte-style extrajudicial killings, likely against minorities. He has already stated that they didn't do enough torturing and killing when the military dictatorship was happening, and that he would rather his own SON die than be a homosexual. So yeah, there will be plenty of refugees, especially if he pulls a Xi

He said their error was to torture instead of kill. But anyway, I seriously doubt there is going to be any refugees, or that he would do anything against drastic against gay people. He will likely use military force against gangs - which previous governments did to, but he's likely to increase that involvement -, and there will continue to be extrajudicial killings though he very probably will not order them.

But in any case, I don't think there will be any refugees, unless we are talking past each other and we mean very different things by "refugee".

That aside, what do you mean by "pulls a Xi"?
Brazil is a democracy, and also a federation. He will not be nearly as powerful in Brazil and Xi is in China (or even nearly as powerful as any of Xi's predecessors was in China).

 

[Jarhyn]

More likely is duerte-style extrajudicial killings, likely against minorities. He has already stated that they didn't do enough torturing and killing when the military dictatorship was happening, and that he would rather his own SON die than be a homosexual. So yeah, there will be plenty of refugees, especially if he pulls a Xi

He said their error was to torture instead of kill. But anyway, I seriously doubt there is going to be any refugees, or that he would do anything against drastic against gay people. He will likely use military force against gangs - which previous governments did to, but he's likely to increase that involvement -, and there will continue to be extrajudicial killings though he very probably will not order them.

But in any case, I don't think there will be any refugees, unless we are talking past each other and we mean very different things by "refugee".

That aside, what do you mean by "pulls a Xi"?
Brazil is a democracy, and also a federation. He will not be nearly as powerful in Brazil and Xi is in China (or even nearly as powerful as any of Xi's predecessors was in China).

You are making a lot of unfounded and bald assertions. We have an unhinged anti-democratic militant conservative who has thrown around his desire to implement a religious theocratic regime, and this is all from his own goddamn statements. So yeah, there will be refugees, both political and religious, seeking to shelter from his government.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

More likely is duerte-style extrajudicial killings, likely against minorities. He has already stated that they didn't do enough torturing and killing when the military dictatorship was happening, and that he would rather his own SON die than be a homosexual. So yeah, there will be plenty of refugees, especially if he pulls a Xi

He said their error was to torture instead of kill. But anyway, I seriously doubt there is going to be any refugees, or that he would do anything against drastic against gay people. He will likely use military force against gangs - which previous governments did to, but he's likely to increase that involvement -, and there will continue to be extrajudicial killings though he very probably will not order them.

But in any case, I don't think there will be any refugees, unless we are talking past each other and we mean very different things by "refugee".

That aside, what do you mean by "pulls a Xi"?
Brazil is a democracy, and also a federation. He will not be nearly as powerful in Brazil and Xi is in China (or even nearly as powerful as any of Xi's predecessors was in China).

You are making a lot of unfounded and bald assertions. We have an unhinged anti-democratic militant conservative who has thrown around his desire to implement a religious theocratic regime, and this is all from his own goddamn statements. So yeah, there will be refugees, both political and religious, seeking to shelter from his government.

No, you are making a lot of unfounded and bald assertions. No, he is not going to implement a religious theocratic regime. He doesn't even want to. He's a cunning politician with a lot of time in Congress, taking advantage of serious concerns like violent street crime and corruption, and non-serious ones like religious decline. He's made statements in pretty much all directions, contradicting himself at every turn. His political model seems to be Trump, and he does like the comparison. There will almost certainly not be any refugees, religious or political - unless, of course, you have a concept of "refugee" under which there already are plenty.

How about this: we come back to this thread in one year, two years, etc., to see what happened?