Will China invade Taiwan?

[rousseau]

I'm surprised I haven't seen a thread about this as I keep seeing news ramp up about it.

I'm no expert on the topic myself but am interested in hearing about it as it sounds like we could be headed toward WWIII.

Taiwan is home to the majority of the world's microchip manufacturing. Is that all it's about?

 

[jonatha]

Taiwan is home to the majority of the world's microchip manufacturing. Is that all it's about?

I don't think so. It's more to do with China's inferiority complex due to its domination by various foreign powers prior to 1945.

The fabs are what's keeping the West interested in Taiwan's de facto independence...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Taiwan is home to the majority of the world's microchip manufacturing. Is that all it's about?

I don't think so. It's more to do with China's inferiority complex due to its domination by various foreign powers prior to 1945.

The fabs are what's keeping the West interested in Taiwan's de facto independence...

What are the "fabs"? I think that it's a very very big issue. I think that if China attacked Taiwan (and they threaten to almost every day); the world would immediately go into deep recession. Most of the world's chips are manufactured there. Biden is trying to create more chip making in the US (most of the IP and design is in the US).

 

[jonatha]

"Fab" is short for "fabrication" and refers to the manufacturing plants in which microchips are produced.

TSMC has agreed to build one (or maybe two now) in Arizona but AFAIK they will not include the most technologically sophisticated processes. Intel is building in Ohio but Intel's tech lags TSMC's.

You'll know the US is really worried when we start offering lots of visas and green cards to Taiwanese chip geeks...

 

[Harry Bosch]

"Fab" is short for "fabrication" and refers to the manufacturing plants in which microchips are produced.

TSMC has agreed to build one (or maybe two now) in Arizona but AFAIK they will not include the most technologically sophisticated processes. Intel is building in Ohio but Intel's tech lags TSMC's.

You'll know the US is really worried when we start offering lots of visas and green cards to Taiwanese chip geeks...

Gotcha. It's been a very hot area for a long time. There are actually many threads regarding Taiwan on this forum, they just don't last as long. But it's not just about the chips. China really does want to conquer Taiwan. Many believe that it belongs to China. Taiwan really wants to be sovereign (anyone blame them?). I'm hopeful that the future economic devastation that awaits Russia as a result of their invasion of Ukraine will steer China in a different direction.

 

[Swammerdami]

Do Chinese cruise missiles have the ability to take out a well-defended American aircraft carrier? Vice versa?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Do Chinese cruise missiles have the ability to take out a well-defended American aircraft carrier? Vice versa?

Absolutely they do. All the war game analysis show that it will be a very bloody battle and devastating on both sides. Both sides will lose many thousands of troops. There's no doubt that that the US will lose many ships and a carrier or two. Hundreds of jets. Thousands of Taiwanese will die. It will be brutal. Having said that, amphibious attacks are very difficult. Taiwan will have the advantage there. But they need to arm themselves far more.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It's about territory for China. According to China, Taiwan is part of China. This is about nationalist pride first and foremost.

-Taiwan only recently extended their obligated military service from four months to one year. Do they have the appetite Ukrainians have to maintain their sovereignty? If not, why bother. Would Taiwanese rather die than live under China's authority?
-Australia and Japan are only now ramping up their military expenditures. Any conventional conflict between the US and China would have them on the sidelines concerned with their own national defense.
-In a conventional war the US would have to attack bases in China which would require a like response from China. Unlike Ukraine, I do not think this is a war that could be contained to just Taiwan.
-Win, lose, or draw, the US military would be devastated and need to be rebuilt.

I think the big question is, would the US be ready to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Taiwan? Would the American people or Congress? I think the answer is no. I think the US would put severe economic sanctions upon China and fight like hell with the EU to go along. The official US policy toward Taiwan is strategic ambiguity. We would use that as an escape from any military conflict. We would build our forces in the Pacific. We are entering into new agreements with the Marshall Islands and Palau and working on Micronesia. I wouldn't be surprised if we reestablished bases in the Philippines.
I think the best course of action for the US would be best to conserve it's military forces and work on breaking China economically. When nations have to decide whether they would want to see economic dominance slant toward China or remain with the US, I think that is the war the US wins every time.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's about territory for China. According to China, Taiwan is part of China. This is about nationalist pride first and foremost.

-Taiwan only recently extended their obligated military service from four months to one year. Do they have the appetite Ukrainians have to maintain their sovereignty? If not, why bother. Would Taiwanese rather die than live under China's authority?
-Australia and Japan are only now ramping up their military expenditures. Any conventional conflict between the US and China would have them on the sidelines concerned with their own national defense.
-In a conventional war the US would have to attack bases in China which would require a like response from China. Unlike Ukraine, I do not think this is a war that could be contained to just Taiwan.
-Win, lose, or draw, the US military would be devastated and need to be rebuilt.

I think the big question is, would the US be ready to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Taiwan? Would the American people or Congress? I think the answer is no. I think the US would put severe economic sanctions upon China and fight like hell with the EU to go along. The official US policy toward Taiwan is strategic ambiguity. We would use that as an escape from any military conflict. We would build our forces in the Pacific. We are entering into new agreements with the Marshall Islands and Palau and working on Micronesia. I wouldn't be surprised if we reestablished bases in the Philippines.
I think the best course of action for the US would be best to conserve it's military forces and work on breaking China economically. When nations have to decide whether they would want to see economic dominance slant toward China or remain with the US, I think that is the war the US wins every time.

Agree with you. Taiwan needs to become like a porcupine to incent China to not invade. The one thing that gives me hope is that unlike Russians, the Chinese are long term planners. And they pay attention to economics. Russia has squandered trillions of income from severing their connections to the west. Does China want the same?

 

[TV and credit cards]

It's about territory for China. According to China, Taiwan is part of China. This is about nationalist pride first and foremost.

-Taiwan only recently extended their obligated military service from four months to one year. Do they have the appetite Ukrainians have to maintain their sovereignty? If not, why bother. Would Taiwanese rather die than live under China's authority?
-Australia and Japan are only now ramping up their military expenditures. Any conventional conflict between the US and China would have them on the sidelines concerned with their own national defense.
-In a conventional war the US would have to attack bases in China which would require a like response from China. Unlike Ukraine, I do not think this is a war that could be contained to just Taiwan.
-Win, lose, or draw, the US military would be devastated and need to be rebuilt.

I think the big question is, would the US be ready to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Taiwan? Would the American people or Congress? I think the answer is no. I think the US would put severe economic sanctions upon China and fight like hell with the EU to go along. The official US policy toward Taiwan is strategic ambiguity. We would use that as an escape from any military conflict. We would build our forces in the Pacific. We are entering into new agreements with the Marshall Islands and Palau and working on Micronesia. I wouldn't be surprised if we reestablished bases in the Philippines.
I think the best course of action for the US would be best to conserve it's military forces and work on breaking China economically. When nations have to decide whether they would want to see economic dominance slant toward China or remain with the US, I think that is the war the US wins every time.

Agree with you. Taiwan needs to become like a porcupine to incent China to not invade. The one thing that gives me hope is that unlike Russians, the Chinese are long term planners. And they pay attention to economics. Russia has squandered trillions of income from severing their connections to the west. Does China want the same?

The question I try to keep forefront is does Xi Jinping think with this same economic (capitalist) mindset we Americans do or is a robust Chinese economy a means to what he considers a larger end? In the US a robust economy and the pursuit of the good life is the ends. I don't think this is the case with Xi Jinping. The good life for Chinese citizens is not the ends. Xi Jinping and the mobster known as Putin are two different animals. To the best of my knowledge, Xi Jinping is not interested in the accumulation of personal wealth. I think it really is about nationhood.

 

[Jayjay]

The question I try to keep forefront is does Xi Jinping think with this same economic (capitalist) mindset we Americans do or is a robust Chinese economy a means to what he considers a larger end? In the US a robust economy and the pursuit of the good life is the ends. I don't think this is the case with Xi Jinping. The good life for Chinese citizens is not the ends. Xi Jinping and the mobster known as Putin are two different animals. To the best of my knowledge, Xi Jinping is not interested in the accumulation of personal wealth. I think it really is about nationhood.

I agree. To guys like Xi and Putin, the economy is a means to an end. Xi considers himself the next Mao, and he absolutely will do anything in his power to capture Taiwan.

Right now, China is busy with covid. Their attempt to suppress it failed, and the Chinese vaccines aren't that effective against the newer strains. Lots of people will die, but this is really just what other countries in the world already have dealth with earlier. I give it six or so months before China's back on its feet covid-wise and its economy is starting to boom again (well, "boom" might not be the word when there is a global recession, but it'll do better relatively speaking). So I don't think that Xi will do anything at least until then.

My biggest fear is that Xi might consider the war in Ukraine to be his only chance of attacking Taiwan, and might throw caution in the wind.

 

[SLD]

Do Chinese cruise missiles have the ability to take out a well-defended American aircraft carrier? Vice versa?

Absolutely they do. All the war game analysis show that it will be a very bloody battle and devastating on both sides. Both sides will lose many thousands of troops. There's no doubt that that the US will lose many ships and a carrier or two. Hundreds of jets. Thousands of Taiwanese will die. It will be brutal. Having said that, amphibious attacks are very difficult. Taiwan will have the advantage there. But they need to arm themselves far more.

Yes, but what the Chinese don’t have is any serious ASW capacity. Ten US nuke subs prowling the Chinese straits would wreak havoc on any invasion fleet. We could put twenty there. Aircraft carriers would stay far away.

And we have lots of cruise missile defenses. Cruise missiles aren’t the problem. Hypersonic missiles are.

An invasion of Taiwan would be extraordinarily difficult. China has no Amphibious warfare experience. They’re building three amphibious by 2025, each carrying 900 troops. Whoop defucking doo! Even if they prevailed they’d win only a hulk of an island. The chip manufacturing plant would be destroyed. China would also become a pariah nation and lose its export markets to much of the world. Japan would counter by building up their military fleet - possibly going nuclear. Even India would not support their invasion. It would be a disaster regardless of the outcome, and we should make that clear to them.

But they may try. Xi is nuts about it. And even if they didn’t win, they could effectively destroy it as an economic entity to punish it for its independent spirit. They could just bomb the crap out of it. Maybe hope they agree to surrender. Usually that’s not a good tactic.

 

[TomC]

My biggest fear is that Xi might consider the war in Ukraine to be his only chance of attacking Taiwan, and might throw caution in the wind.

The Chinese government in general, and Xi in particular, aren't known for throwing caution to the wind.

I could better imagine him using the Taiwan issue now for current purposes. Waiting for a successor to finish the job, decades or generations in the future.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

But they may try. Xi is nuts about it.

Chinese aren't stupid, nor are they susceptible to the kind of insanity that has overtaken Mr. Putin.
For the very reasons you iterate, the course for China in the foreseeable future will be lots of posturing, and making sure nobody forgets that they think "all your Taiwan are belong to us!".
If things change significantly, such that the US becomes the major source for chips and the Taiwanese economy slips into irrelevance ... they will probably try to take it over just as a point of national territorial pride.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Do Chinese cruise missiles have the ability to take out a well-defended American aircraft carrier? Vice versa?

The hard part is getting a good fix on the target and getting your launchers into range of that target. If you can get enough birds in the air you can get through. In a full-up conflict there would be a major exclusion zone around the carrier and it would be very hard to get and keep the fix. In a surprise attack some fishing trawler would provide the fix and the risk would be high.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A bit about the Philippines.

So this is a check on China in the South China Sea to the extent the Philippines can be relied upon. We'll see how long Marcos Jr. can remain in power and what in time we can actually have stationed there.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Ukraine/Taiwan Crossover
Lesson learned by China.
Reuters review of almost 100 articles in more than 20 defence journals. Unlike Putin, Xi seems to want accurate assessments of capabilities and likely outcomes.

In this episode:
-Starlink
-Javelins and Stingers
-International response
-Drones
-Information war

The US seems to be going hard on the information front against China now, rallying allies, drawing attention to any aggression by China, drawing parallels between it and Russian aggression against Ukraine. I expect we'll see more of this.

Xi Jinping has consolidated power in China. The US has seen pro-western leaders come into power where that is not always a given.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has said that Xi has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while noting that the Chinese leader was probably unsettled by Russia's experience in Ukraine.

Let's all stay calm.


In other news, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is due to meet with McCarthy (yes, that McCarthy) in the US. From Hannity to Tsai Ing-wen, I guess this is McCarthy playing both sides of the Republican party.