Will Russia Invade Belarus?

[Copernicus]

The news coming out of Belarus these days is grim and scary for the world's autocrats, dictators, and Putin lovers everywhere. What is happening there looks like a replay of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, which led Putin to invade Ukraine, annex Crimea, and occupy the Donbass region, where he is still actively at war with Ukraine. After an obviously rigged election, people there have had enough. Unfortunately for Putin, Russian oil pipelines run through that country, just as they do in Ukraine. And it represented a buffer between Russia and NATO countries. Putin is not as unpopular in Belarus as in Ukraine, but he has to be very worried at the prospect of mass protests that could spread to Russia.

If he invades, then he faces more opposition both domestically and internationally. There might even be significant local resistance. It would be impossible for his lackey in the White House not to denounce him, and Congress would likely pass tougher economic sanctions. Europeans would likely do the same. If he doesn't invade, he needs to find a way to install a leader that is subordinate to Moscow. This is a huge security risk from his perspective.

No Longer Cowed, Belarus Has Message for Once-Mighty Dictator: ‘Go Away!’

 

[Patooka]

Not invade. "Restoring traditional borders".

 

[ZiprHead]

Not invade. "Restoring traditional borders".

All those Belarusians are really Russians, dontcha know/

 

[barbos]

Свежий белорусский анекдот:
Идет мужик по улице – с работы, трезвый, никого не трогает. Рядом тормозит автозак, вылетают омоновцы и начинают паковать его в машину, лупят дубинками и ногами.
– Отпустите, я за Лукашенко голосовал!
– Не п#$ди, за Лукашенко никто не голосовал!

 

[aupmanyav]

The dictator, Lukashenko, is still there.

 

[DrZoidberg]

We can look back at what has happened historically. Lukashenko is a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. Yanukovych in the Ukraine was a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. When the Ukrainians decided to kick him out Yanukovych "invited" Russia to get involved and help out. Most Hollywood movies are less predictable than this storyline.

 

[barbos]

We can look back at what has happened historically. Lukashenko is a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. Yanukovych in the Ukraine was a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. When the Ukrainians decided to kick him out Yanukovych "invited" Russia to get involved and help out. Most Hollywood movies are less predictable than this storyline.

Lukashenko is a "puppet" which
1. Refused to accept "annexation" of Crimea
2. Was (re)selling fuel to Ukrainian Army while it was fighting East Ukraine "separatists"
3. Was sabotaging russian efforts against EU sanctions (with great profit for himself)
4. Accused Russian mercenaries in attempts to overthrow him (in reality it was ukrainian SBU setup)

He has shown again and again that he is simply not trustworthy.
Early on when Putin was pretty green on his job, Lukashenko tried to create Russia-Belarus Union and became a president of it. When it became clear that he won't be a president he lost interest and was dragging that idea only as a tool to sap resources from Russia (Gas, oil)

Same story with Ukraine, they were only interested in russian money, regardless of who was nominally in power.

 

[marc]

Not invade. "Restoring traditional borders".

Yes... the borders of Pangea

 

[DrZoidberg]

We can look back at what has happened historically. Lukashenko is a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. Yanukovych in the Ukraine was a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. When the Ukrainians decided to kick him out Yanukovych "invited" Russia to get involved and help out. Most Hollywood movies are less predictable than this storyline.

Lukashenko is a "puppet" which
1. Refused to accept "annexation" of Crimea
2. Was (re)selling fuel to Ukrainian Army while it was fighting East Ukraine "separatists"
3. Was sabotaging russian efforts against EU sanctions (with great profit for himself)
4. Accused Russian mercenaries in attempts to overthrow him (in reality it was ukrainian SBU setup)

He has shown again and again that he is simply not trustworthy.
Early on when Putin was pretty green on his job, Lukashenko tried to create Russia-Belarus Union and became a president of it. When it became clear that he won't be a president he lost interest and was dragging that idea only as a tool to sap resources from Russia (Gas, oil)

Same story with Ukraine, they were only interested in russian money, regardless of who was nominally in power.

Hmm... "they". A dictator is only one person. It benifits him. Not they.

 

[barbos]

We can look back at what has happened historically. Lukashenko is a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. Yanukovych in the Ukraine was a Russian puppet propped up by Putin. When the Ukrainians decided to kick him out Yanukovych "invited" Russia to get involved and help out. Most Hollywood movies are less predictable than this storyline.

Lukashenko is a "puppet" which
1. Refused to accept "annexation" of Crimea
2. Was (re)selling fuel to Ukrainian Army while it was fighting East Ukraine "separatists"
3. Was sabotaging russian efforts against EU sanctions (with great profit for himself)
4. Accused Russian mercenaries in attempts to overthrow him (in reality it was ukrainian SBU setup)

He has shown again and again that he is simply not trustworthy.
Early on when Putin was pretty green on his job, Lukashenko tried to create Russia-Belarus Union and became a president of it. When it became clear that he won't be a president he lost interest and was dragging that idea only as a tool to sap resources from Russia (Gas, oil)

Same story with Ukraine, they were only interested in russian money, regardless of who was nominally in power.

Hmm... "they". A dictator is only one person. It benifits him. Not they.

Ukraine had a few presidents, all were interested in getting money from Russia.

 

[SLD]

Trump said it was a terrible situation. I guess He feels sorry for Lukashenko. I mean, how dare people take to the streets to protest their leader? It won’t happen here after he steals the election. He’s got the border police already to go.

 

[lpetrich]

Свежий белорусский анекдот:
Идет мужик по улице – с работы, трезвый, никого не трогает. Рядом тормозит автозак, вылетают омоновцы и начинают паковать его в машину, лупят дубинками и ногами.
– Отпустите, я за Лукашенко голосовал!
– Не п#$ди, за Лукашенко никто не голосовал!

From Google Translate, recognized as Russian:

Svezhiy belorusskiy anekdot:
Idet muzhik po ulitse – s raboty, trezvyy, nikogo ne trogayet. Ryadom tormozit avtozak, vyletayut omonovtsy i nachinayut pakovat' yego v mashinu, lupyat dubinkami i nogami.
– Otpustite, ya za Lukashenko golosoval!
– Ne p#$di, za Lukashenko nikto ne golosoval!

Fresh Belarusian anecdote:
A man walks down the street - from work, sober, does not bother anyone. Nearby, a paddy wagon slows down, riot policemen take off and begin to pack him into the car, beat him with truncheons and kicks.
- Let go, I voted for Lukashenka!
- No p#$di, no one voted for Lukashenka!