Will the 21st Century Belong to China?

[NobleSavage]

My half-ass understanding of world history:

16th Century = Spain
17th Century = Holland
18th Century = France
19th Century = Great Britain
20th Century = America
21st Century = ?????

If China does win the title for 21st Century how do you feel about an authoritarian government calling the shots?

 

[dystopian]

No. China will probably not become the dominant power of the 21st century. People focus on the impressive growth of Chinese GDP (which is unsustainable), but forget that that growth will slow to western levels before long and they tend to overlook the many structural problems with the Chinese economy. Even assuming that everything continues apace, it will take quite a few years for the Chinese economy to overtake either the US or the Eurozone; and even longer for gdp-per-capita to approach western levels. It would also take them a substantial amount of time to catchup to the west in military terms. There are many other things (massive debt, an aging population, to name a few) that are likely to prevent China from becoming the primary superpower in the 21st century. Assuming China does keep catching up though (a very big if), it would be well placed for the 22nd century.

There's an interesting talk by Moravcsik on this where he argues that it is the European Union and not China or India that will become the next superpower, he makes some good arguments against China dominating the 21st century: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dezv7X1VLOA

That said, one can't really predict the future. What if China goes through a massive democratic liberalism upswing? What if the United States tears itself apart? What if the EU disintegrates? What if Russia goes to war with the west? Etc etc. China COULD be the next superpower if things go a certain way, but probably not.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Uruguay will dominate the 21st century.

 

[Jayjay]

It's already 15 years into 21st century, and EU is struggling. It might get its act together by end of the century, but I doubt it'll happen fast enough that EU could become the superpower. China seems like a much more likely candidate.

 

[dystopian]

It's already 15 years into 21st century, and EU is struggling. It might get its act together by end of the century, but I doubt it'll happen fast enough that EU could become the superpower. China seems like a much more likely candidate.

The EU is going through birthing issues; but those appear relatively inconsequential to the bigger picture at this point to be honest. And it's starting to get its act together *now*, not at the end of the century. Economically, the EU already *is* *the* superpower and even with other regions experiencing relatively more growth, nobody else will overtake Europe any time soon. And even if *all* of Asia (including China) were to continue spending what they do right now on the military and increase that relative to future growth forecasts, it would only surpass US spending in the year *2070*. That really doesn't bode well for the idea that the 21st century would be dominated by China. There's also the very real possibility (indeed, it is almost inevitable) that as Chinese GDP per capita increases, its citizen's demands will break down authoritarian state power and cause serious fractures to emerge in the Chinese system of government.

When it comes to economic, political, and military might, there's currently no other power (ignoring the US) that comes close to the EU; a situation that will remain in effect for the foreseeable future even if the UK were to leave (and it won't). If the US were to suddenly drop off the face of the planet tomorrow, the EU would be by far the most powerful entity on the planet, even fractured (and therefore less efficient) as it is. No, China isn't a much more likely candidate at all. It will be a great power for sure... possibly even a superpower, but not the dominant one. Not until the 22nd century at least.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Once we unleash the giant robot army we've been constructing, the 21st century and all following centuries will belong to Canada.

 

[Bomb#20]

Once we unleash the giant robot army we've been constructing, the 21st century and all following centuries will belong to Canada.

Since when do you need a giant robot army? According to Wilfrid Laurier the last century belonged to Canada!

 

[arkirk]

The biggest winner in the 21st century will be the volumetric dominance of the oceans of the surface of the world. Human meddling with the insect pollinators of the world could easily result in hunger making huge advances. Humility will be the dominant human condition...not the voluntary humility of the intelligent, but the humiliation of those who believed so fervently in the dominance of THEIR OWN CULTURE. The human race is given to building unsustainable structure and taking immense pride in them, then succumbing to the consequences of its actions.

 

[Jayjay]

Once we unleash the giant robot army we've been constructing, the 21st century and all following centuries will belong to Canada.

Didn't you try that in 2010 already?

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Once we unleash the giant robot army we've been constructing, the 21st century and all following centuries will belong to Canada.

Since when do you need a giant robot army? According to Wilfrid Laurier the last century belonged to Canada!

He was just psyching everyone out. Now you're unprepared.

 

[arkirk]

Since when do you need a giant robot army? According to Wilfrid Laurier the last century belonged to Canada!

He was just psyching everyone out. Now you're unprepared.

The people with the robots are the Japanese. Maybe Canada could work out some kind of trade deal with them and they could have a kind of duopoly in world hegemony.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Much of China's "growth" is phony, propped up by the state. Eventually they will be unable to keep juggling all the balls and they're going to be in for a major crash.

Look at China's ghost cities for an example of what's going on.

 

[Canard DuJour]

My half-ass understanding of world history:

16th Century = Spain
17th Century = Holland
18th Century = France
19th Century = Great Britain
20th Century = America
21st Century = ?????

Transnational corporations.