How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

Another Russian general killed amid invasion, Russian official says

The governor of St. Petersburg confirmed that another Russian general has been killed amid the invasion of Ukraine, honoring him in a ceremony on Saturday, Russian media reported. The deputy commander of the 8th Army, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Petrovich Frolov, died while fighting against Ukraine, a...

news.yahoo.com

Being a Russian general is like being a drummer for Spinal Tap.

 

[steve_bank]

We and other NATO countries have rigorous officer training and academies. NATO countries exchange officers to cross pollinate.

We are probaly ssing the overall poor quality if Russian education in general. What the mind numbing Soviet system must have been like. No diversity of thought and no creativity. A glaring example of where mono thinking and indoctrination leads to.

If they had anything like a Norman Schwarzkopf or Collin Powell Ukraine would br history by now.

 

[Jayjay]

From the Boing Boing website. Your WTF Russian post for the day.
...
Ukrainian officials said their forces hit the vessel with missiles, while Russia acknowledged a fire aboard the Moskva but no attack. U.S. and other Western officials could not confirm what caused the blaze.

Back in 2020, the Russian State-owned news agency TASS reported that this same ship had been armed with a piece of the True Cross, a Christian relic that is believed to have been part of the cross upon which Jesus Christ was crucified approximately 1,989 years ago today:...
...

Do all Russian warship have their own holy relic?

An ancient piece of dry wood on board would explain how the fire got started.

 

[steve_bank]

The fire was probably caused by a wood stove on the ship.

 

[Copernicus]

Actually, it is very hard for the Russian government to continue to spill this story. Some announcers on Russian TV seem to have leaked the news and expressed their anger at Ukraine for sinking the ship. The official government position is still clinging to the "it was just a fire" story.

 

[ZiprHead]

Actually, it is very hard for the Russian government to continue to spill this story. Some announcers on Russian TV seem to have leaked the news and expressed their anger at Ukraine for sinking the ship. The official government position is still clinging to the "it was just a fire" story.

How dare you to fight back.

 

[lpetrich]

Заявление МИД России об ответных персональных санкциях в отношении конгрессменов США - Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации - (Google Translate) Statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry on retaliatory personal sanctions against US congressmen - Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

В порядке реакции на очередную «волну» антироссийских санкций, введенных Администрацией Дж.Байдена 24 марта с.г. против 328 депутатов Государственной Думы Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации, что с учетом прежде внесенных в «черный список» российских парламентариев составляет практически весь ее состав, вводятся «зеркальные» санкционные ограничения в отношении 398 членов Палаты представителей Конгресса США.

Указанные лица, включая руководство и председателей комитетов нижней палаты американского Конгресса, вносятся в российский «стоп-лист» на постоянной основе. Вместе с другими действующими законодателями, кому, как Спикеру Н.Пелоси, въезд в Российскую Федерацию был закрыт ранее, «листированию» на основе взаимности подвергнуты все конгрессмены США.

(Google Translate)
In response to the next "wave" of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the Administration of George Biden on March 24 of this year. against 328 deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, which, taking into account the Russian parliamentarians previously included in the “black list”, constitutes almost its entire composition, “mirror” sanctions restrictions are introduced against 398 members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress.

These persons, including the leadership and chairmen of the committees of the lower house of the US Congress, are included in the Russian "stop list" on an ongoing basis. Together with other current legislators, who, like Speaker N. Pelosi, were denied entry to the Russian Federation earlier, all US congressmen were subjected to “listing” on the basis of reciprocity.

That leaves 43 unmentioned. Who might they be?

Full List of House Members Not Sanctioned by Russia

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced sanctions against 398 members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, and listed lawmakers from both parties as part of retaliatory measures after the U.S. sanctioned 328 members of Russia's State Duma.

The list:

1. Andy Barr - Kentucky (R)
2. Gus Bilirakis - Florida (R)
3. Kevin Brady - Texas (R)
4. David Cicilline - Rhode Island (D)
5. Steve Cohen - Tennessee (D)
6. Gerry Connolly - Virginia (D)
7. Warren Davidson - Ohio (R)
8. Rosa DeLauro - Connecticut (D)
9. Ted Deutch - Florida (D)
10. Anna Eshoo - California (D)
11. Brian Fitzpatrick - Pennsylvania (R)
12. Steny Hoyer - Maryland (D)
13. Richard Hudson - North Carolina (R)
14. Sheila Lee Jackson - Texas (D)
15. Marcy Kaptur - Ohio (D)
16. William Keating - Massachusetts (D)
17. Adam Kinzinger - Illinois (R)
18. Raja Krishnamoorthi - Illinois (D)
19. Ted Lieu - California (D)
20. Tom Malinowski - New Jersey (D)
21. Kevin McCarthy - California (R)
22. Michael McCaul - Texas (R)
23. James McGovern - Massachusetts (D)
24. Gregory Meeks - New York (D)
25. Gwen Moore - Wisconsin (D)
26. Jerrold Nadler - New York (D)
27. Frank Pallone - New Jersey (D)
28. Mike Rogers - Alabama (R)
29. Adam Schiff - California (D)
30. Bradley Schneider - Illinois (D)
31. Brad Sherman - California (D)
32. Albio Sires - New Jersey (D)
33. Chris Smith - New Jersey (D)
34. Jackie Speier - California (D)
35. Eric Swalwell - California (D)
36. Michael Turner - Ohio (R)
37. Maxine Waters - California (D)
38. Randy Weber - Texas (R)
39. Joe Wilson - South Carolina (R)

There is little clarity about how Russia chose which lawmakers to sanction. The sanctions list included some Republicans who have made comments that have been construed as sympathetic to Russia.

Representatives Matt Gaetz of Florida, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Thomas Massie of Kentucky were included. They were the only three members of the House to vote against banning imports of Russian oil last week.

Representatives Krishnamoorthi, Kinzinger and Swalwell have been outspoken in their criticism of the Russian invasion but were excluded from Wednesday's sanctions.

Russia also chose to sanction the six non-voting members of the House, though those members can vote in committee.

 

[Thomas II]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-cyberattacks-60-minutes-2022-04-17/

This past week, the U.S. government issued an urgent warning about dangerous new malware that could cripple industrial systems worldwide. It comes on the heels of Ukraine withstanding an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to 2 million people in that war-torn country. The Biden administration has been releasing sensitive intelligence and dire warnings that the Kremlin is preparing to launch a new generation of cyberattacks on American soil. U.S. cyber defenders tell us they are now watching Russian state actors probe some of our most critical systems, and are bracing themselves — especially at the Department of Homeland Security — with an initiative called "Shields Up

 

[TV and credit cards]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-cyberattacks-60-minutes-2022-04-17/

This past week, the U.S. government issued an urgent warning about dangerous new malware that could cripple industrial systems worldwide. It comes on the heels of Ukraine withstanding an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to 2 million people in that war-torn country. The Biden administration has been releasing sensitive intelligence and dire warnings that the Kremlin is preparing to launch a new generation of cyberattacks on American soil. U.S. cyber defenders tell us they are now watching Russian state actors probe some of our most critical systems, and are bracing themselves — especially at the Department of Homeland Security — with an initiative called "Shields Up

Dmitri Alperovitch: We have to let him know that you will not touch our critical infrastructure without a response. And the way to do that, I think, is through a cyber operation that can demonstrate our capabilities without lasting damage. One of the ways you can do that, for example, is by taking Russia off the internet for a few hours. It won't cause any lasting impact, but it will demonstrate the power of the United States Cyber Command, what we can do to his economy by disconnecting him, effectively, from the internet.

Bill Whitaker: We can do that?

Dmitri Alperovitch: We can absolutely do that. And we'll let him know that if he keeps going, if he keeps attacking us, we can make that permanent.

I did not know we could do this. I’m envisioning a SCADA system somewhere with toggle switches and the names of countries underneath them.
I’ll bet our US top nerds can do a lot of mean shit they’re just not allowed to. It must hurt to have to have that level of self control.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Actually, it is very hard for the Russian government to continue to spill this story. Some announcers on Russian TV seem to have leaked the news and expressed their anger at Ukraine for sinking the ship. The official government position is still clinging to the "it was just a fire" story.

How dare you to fight back.

The reason the Russian Nazi Pigs dare act so aggressively is because they know we're afraid of their nuclear threats. Our fear about that gives them a free hand and they're murdering thousands, displacing millions and destroying a free democratic country at will. We'll regret our behavior and act differently sooner than later, hopefully.

 

[jonatha]

I did not know we could do this.

The wires (and radio signals) carrying Russian internet traffic out of Russia have to connect to something.

As long as you control the something (or can pressure whoever does), you can simply ignore what's coming in on those wires...

(Now if Russia decides to route their traffic through China you have to be a bit more sophisticated about it...)

 

[steve_bank]

As to Mariupol I am thinking of the Battle Of The Bulge and Bastogne.

Surrounded by the Germans and badly shot up the fighting to the last the Americans are offered surrender terms by the Germans. NcAuliffe allgedly relied 'NUTS!", which in those days meant 'Fuck Off'. The German army stymied wanted to bypass but Hitler said level it. Another Putin parallel.

Unfortunately there is no Patton on the way to break the siege for the Ukrainians.
We spent lives and money in Iraq and Afghanistan where they did not really want us.

Is there a point at which NATO will engage?

The story of the NUTS! reply

This story retraces the events of December 22nd, 1944 at Bastogne, Belgium, the day we received German surrender ultimatum and issued the subsequent

www.army.mil

When Harper arrived at the Headquarters, he was asked to wait outside of the closed door to McAulliffe's quarters. Inside, in the presence of his staff, McAulliffe wondered aloud, "Well, I don't know what to tell them." At that point, Kinnard said, "What you said initially would be hard to beat." McAulliffe asked "What do you mean?" Kinnard, said, "Sir, you said nuts." All members of the staff enthusiastically agreed, so McAulliffe wrote it down on a message pad and said, "Have it typed up."


The reply was typed up, centered on a full sheet of paper. It read:


"December 22, 1944


To the German Commander,


N U T S !

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia Keeps Quiet About Fate Of Sailors.

 

[Jayjay]

According to liveuamap.com Russia seems to be trying to advance Nortwest of Severodonetsk. Ukraine says major assault in Donbas is imminent, maybe it has already started.

Looking pretty bleak for Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia Keeps Quiet About Fate Of Sailors.

View attachment 38193

Maybe they could break the news in form of a song:

 

[SLD]

Perhaps the real key to stopping Russia is quite simple: embargo their oil.

EU Split On Russian Oil Embargo | OilPrice.com

European countries have talked for weeks about a ban on Russian crude oil imports, but the bloc of nations remains divided on the topic

oilprice.com

According to this article, they would be forced to stop within a few days. Europe is basically giving little more than lip service to the Ukrainians. They’ve provided $1billion in military aid, while at the same time given $35 billion to the Russians for oil.

I get it, it would fundamentally shut down whole sectors of their economy overnight. But I think the shock would be temporary, and if it stopped the war quickly, they would recover soon. But would it really work?

 

[Jayjay]

Perhaps the real key to stopping Russia is quite simple: embargo their oil.

EU Split On Russian Oil Embargo | OilPrice.com

European countries have talked for weeks about a ban on Russian crude oil imports, but the bloc of nations remains divided on the topic

oilprice.com

According to this article, they would be forced to stop within a few days. Europe is basically giving little more than lip service to the Ukrainians. They’ve provided $1billion in military aid, while at the same time given $35 billion to the Russians for oil.

I get it, it would fundamentally shut down whole sectors of their economy overnight. But I think the shock would be temporary, and if it stopped the war quickly, they would recover soon. But would it really work?

The real hit would be to cut off gas. Or as Italy is suggesting, to offer to pay less, like 50%. If Russia refuses, they get nothing, and can't sell anywhere else. If they accept, Europe gets cheaper gas and buys some time to wean off it.

Unlike oil, Russia can't sell its natural gas anywhere else because there are no pipes going to China. Oil is different. Most of it already goes to China, who would be unlikely to join any sanctions by EU or US.

Russian gas is like a bandaid that EU (and Germany in particular) just needs to rip off. It has to be done now when it has a chance to shorten the war.

 

[bilby]

Germany's plan to stop using fossil fuels by replacing them with Russian gas is once again exposed for the total insanity that it always was.

The sad thing is that the people who voted for this mad policy still imagine that the wind turbines, that have made Russian gas so completely indispensable for Germany to keep functioning, are in some way helping.

 

[SLD]

According to liveuamap.com Russia seems to be trying to advance Nortwest of Severodonetsk. Ukraine says major assault in Donbas is imminent, maybe it has already started.

Looking pretty bleak for Ukraine.

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

But so many people are afraid of widening the war. It’s a risk, but one worth taking, and I think a small one. They wouldn’t dare attack any NATO country while they’re bogged down in Ukraine. We just must avoid attacking them. They’ll bitch and moan, but not take any real action, absent a serious threat to the integrity of Russia itself.

 

[steve_bank]

OiI or Ukraine, Ukraine or oi l.. .aint geopolitics interesting?

Post WWII Stalin acknowledged the importance of the supplies from North America, and paid it all back to avoid being obligated to the Allies. Too bad we didn't just let them fail. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Russians will become pariahs.