How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

Not going to happen.

Russia has full propaganda hold on its people. They think they're on a righteous quest to rescue Russians from massacres by NATO and evil westerners. No amount of sanctions or even losses will change that. If Ukraine against all odds starts to push them back, or there is a stalemate, Putin still has the option to declare martial law and mobilize reservists. I think the Russian people would go along with that just as they have with everything else.

 

[Copernicus]

OiI or Ukraine, Ukraine or oi l.. .aint geopolitics interesting?

Post WWII Stalin acknowledged the importance of the supplies from North America, and paid it all back to avoid being obligated to the Allies. Too bad we didn't just let them fail. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Russians will become pariahs.

I hope not. The feeling that Russians are all pariahs is a major factor in rallying support for Putin. It isn't just that Russians are suckers for this technique. Extremists use it everywhere to drive wedges between people. Look how skillfully Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" remark worked to unite Republicans across the political spectrum around Donald Trump. She made the remark to try to split off more moderate Republicans from the crazies, but she achieved the exact opposite effect. Moderate Republicans began calling themselves "deplorables" as if she had meant the remark to apply to all Republicans. It became a major theme in Republican messaging to their own base of support.

Putin's "Z" campaign floats on top of a sea of paranoia--that Russia is unfairly attacked by other nations because Russians are pariahs, even though they are individually no different from anyone else. I contrast that with Arnold Schwarzenegger's message to Russians, which spent a great deal of time explaining his love of Russia and the Russian character, not to mention the evil effect that his own father's participation in the German WWII siege of Leningrad had on him. Schwarzenegger made Putin and the oligarchs out to be the villains, not ordinary Russians.

 

[steve_bank]

It appears a large part of the Russian people do believe the USA and the west is their enemiy.

They were invaded by Germany and that is burned into the cultural memory. There is memorial at I think Stalingrad of a big hand comming out of the ground. Much like the our Pearl Harbor WWII memorial.

The soviet causalities estimates I read run from 20-30 million. They were fighting the Germans much as the Ukrainians are fighting the Russians.

Back in the 80s I read a translation of a Russian militarily per that seemed to infer they were far more afraaid of us invading them then we were afraid of them attacking western Europe.

The Soviet collapse probably fed the paranoia. It certainly did for Putin.

If Putin fails in Ukraine it is once again 'the fault of the west'.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

This. Basic weapons are fine, but advanced weapons are only useful when they're basically self-contained like the Javelin and Stinger. Anything else requires too much training to be of any real effectiveness if just tossed into battle.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It appears a large part of the Russian people do believe the USA and the west is their enemiy.

They were invaded by Germany and that is burned into the cultural memory. There is memorial at I think Stalingrad of a big hand comming out of the ground. Much like the our Pearl Harbor WWII memorial.

The soviet causalities estimates I read run from 20-30 million. They were fighting the Germans much as the Ukrainians are fighting the Russians.

Back in the 80s I read a translation of a Russian militarily per that seemed to infer they were far more afraaid of us invading them then we were afraid of them attacking western Europe.

The Soviet collapse probably fed the paranoia. It certainly did for Putin.

If Putin fails in Ukraine it is once again 'the fault of the west'.

This will all eventually change. Perhaps not in our lifetimes but that Russia will one day mature into a functioning democracy free of state mandated paranoia is an inevitability. I do have this much faith in the human condition. The genie is already out of the bottle in Russia and taking its toll. Putin and his fellow Nazis are a legacy of Russia past. Look at how European countries bludgeoned and made conquest on each other for centuries before eventually growing up. Even the U.S. has seen its share of civil strife over its history.

Putin and his nazi pigs fear this, they know the tide is against them and that eventually they will be swept aside. They're simply doing all they can to forestall the inevitable.

 

[ZiprHead]

I heard Russian seperatists are fighting Russians, no confirmation yet. If true, apparently Russians don't like other Russians bombing their homes and killing their families.

 

[steve_bank]

I heard Russian seperatists are fighting Russians, no confirmation yet. If true, apparently Russians don't like other Russians bombing their homes and killing their families.

That is certainly a question, do the Russian separatists really want to be under the thumb of Putin? I don't remember, way back were they asking for autonomy within Ukraine with Russian language?

 

[Copernicus]

I heard Russian seperatists are fighting Russians, no confirmation yet. If true, apparently Russians don't like other Russians bombing their homes and killing their families.

That is certainly a question, do the Russian separatists really want to be under the thumb of Putin? I don't remember, way back were they asking for autonomy within Ukraine with Russian language?

I haven't heard anything about separatists turning on Russian troops. Rather, they are fighting alongside them and attacking other Ukrainian troops for the most part. I think that there is at least one former separatist leader who is now saying that the Russian invasion was a mistake. I suspect that most of these Russian-backed separatists are considered unreliable and useful mainly as cannon fodder. Send them in ahead of Russian troops to catch any pockets of resistance ahead of the advance.

 

[SLD]

Police are not bound by the Geneva Conventions, nor the CWC. These bind military forces, such as those deployed by Russia in Ukraine.

Well, technically it's a police operation, not a war.

What do you suggest? and no, "Leaving Ukraine" is not an option

You know, Barbos, I don’t expect you to suddenly admit that you’re full of shit, and I doubt anyone else will change their mind either. So who gives a damn? But here’s some things you cannot deny:

1. You’re getting your butts kicked by Ukraine. You’ve lost upwards of 450 tanks and 2,000 other armored vehicles. It will take years to replace those.
2. You’ve lost approximately 30,000 to 40,000 personnel, either killed, wounded or missing. You will never replace those.
3. You got your asses handed you around Kiev, and we’re forced into a humiliating retreat.
4. You’ve yet to take a single major city, even Mariupol has continued to hold out despite being surrounded for over a month.
5. You have failed to achieve air superiority, and have lost around 80 aircraft, along with numerous well trained crewmen.
6. You just lost the flag ship of your Black Sea fleet, including its commanding officer.
7. Your military failures have made your nation appear to be nothing but a paper bear. The incompetence displayed, including tanks being towed away by tractors, open communication on cell phones, instances of fragging senior officers, and even leaving troops without food or supplies has all exposed your nation as utterly weak.
8. Your forces are simply bogged down everywhere they go. This war is now a quagmire from which it’s unlikely to end until you’re forces are bled dry. It’s ten times worse than your invasion of Afghanistan. You cannot conquer Ukraine. They will not be surrendering. There will be no peace talks.
9. Your economy is in the toilet. Inflation is close to 20%, and you can trade little more than oil on international markets. Your stock market is about half of what it was in November. You’ve defaulted on your debt for the first time since 1918. You might continue to make some money on oil and gas, but even a lot of those shipments are now in jeopardy, as Germany says it will wean itself from Russian oil by the end of the year. It’s quite possible that in a few months time you will not be selling oil at all. That may never recover as they will no longer trust you.
10. Finland will likely join NATO, soon too. Sweden might also. This will deliver a serious blow to your overall security situation.
11. You’ve united NATO as never before, and even Germany is seriously increasing its military budget.
12. The rest of the world is utterly shocked and outraged over your actions. Your military’s actions against innocent civilians has brought shame on your nation as Germany’s did 80 years ago. You will not be repairing your reputation abroad anytime soon.
13. You’re two supposed allies are abandoning you too. Lukashenko no longer supports this war, and you can’t rely on Belorussians who are as likely to revolt against your incursion, and the Chinese aren’t stupid enough to go against the sanctions and hurt their own economy.

So tell me what the fuck good this war has done for Russia? How is Russia’s security situation improved by this stupid war? How has it benefited the ordinary Russian?

 

[SLD]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

This. Basic weapons are fine, but advanced weapons are only useful when they're basically self-contained like the Javelin and Stinger. Anything else requires too much training to be of any real effectiveness if just tossed into battle.

Why can’t we provide the trading quickly inside NATO countries? It’s not like we’re training them from scratch. They already have familiarity with similar weapons systems. One month? Two months?

And while they can’t use NATO avionics, how hard would it be to modify the MiGs?

 

[SLD]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

Not going to happen.

Russia has full propaganda hold on its people. They think they're on a righteous quest to rescue Russians from massacres by NATO and evil westerners. No amount of sanctions or even losses will change that. If Ukraine against all odds starts to push them back, or there is a stalemate, Putin still has the option to declare martial law and mobilize reservists. I think the Russian people would go along with that just as they have with everything else.

Maybe. But how long can that propaganda work? When they find themselves in a quagmire that not even the most optimistic reports can’t deny, when more and more military aged men have to go off and many don’t come back, when those who do come back tell what is happening, when their economy sinks further and further into a toilet and even oil shipments are lost? What will they do then?

I just don’t see Putin as powerful as Stalin, or even a Czar. Dictatorships can look awfully stable until suddenly they don’t. Few predicted that a simple act of suicide by a street vendor would result in the toppling of Tunisia’s President, followed quickly by Egypt and Libya. All of those leaders looked very secure until they didn’t.

 

[lpetrich]

Ex-US Navy Guys Speculate How The Russian Cruiser "Moskva" Sunk So Easily - YouTube

They came up with these possibilities.

Differences in crew responsibilities and command hierarchy. In the US and UK navies, every crewmember is expected to know how to do damage control, like fighting fires, and not have to wait for authorization from someone higher up in the command hierarchy. However, Russian military is very hierarchical, with lower-level people not having much initiative. I recall from somewhere that Ukraine's military started off like that, but that after defeats in Donbas in 2014, it became more Western-like and less hierarchical.

Information overload from watching some nearby Ukrainian drones. These may have been enough of a distraction to let the Ukrainian anti-ship missiles come through.

Building lots of ships without much regard for quality.

Lack of watertight bulkheads. These are good for keeping not only water from spreading through a ship, but also leaked fuel and fire.

 

[Trausti]

War is so stupid. "He was identified by DNA." Ghastly.

 

[repoman]

Where in the world is Gonzalo Lira?

 

[Jayjay]

Russia alleges that Ukraine has shelled Golovicho village in Belgorod region on Russian side of the border.

3 wounded as result of shelling in Golovchino village of Belgorod region - governor Belgorod, Belgorodskaya oblast' - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

3 wounded as result of shelling in Golovchino village of Belgorod region - governor . Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues...

liveuamap.com

There are also pictures of destroyed civilian houses. To me it seems there's nothing there worthy to destroy though. The main supply lines are elsewhere. Could this be a false flag to justify martial law and mobilization in Russia?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Perhaps the real key to stopping Russia is quite simple: embargo their oil.

EU Split On Russian Oil Embargo | OilPrice.com

European countries have talked for weeks about a ban on Russian crude oil imports, but the bloc of nations remains divided on the topic

oilprice.com

According to this article, they would be forced to stop within a few days. Europe is basically giving little more than lip service to the Ukrainians. They’ve provided $1billion in military aid, while at the same time given $35 billion to the Russians for oil.

I get it, it would fundamentally shut down whole sectors of their economy overnight. But I think the shock would be temporary, and if it stopped the war quickly, they would recover soon. But would it really work?

It would need to be short lived with all the other economic woes around the world: supply chain issues, chip issues, China's covid shutdown. The average person cares more about their pocketbook than the plight of Ukraine. So I can see why governments are a bit apprehensive about how hard of a hit their willing to subject their economies too, lest the political nutters are elected to office.

 

[TV and credit cards]

According to liveuamap.com Russia seems to be trying to advance Nortwest of Severodonetsk. Ukraine says major assault in Donbas is imminent, maybe it has already started.

Looking pretty bleak for Ukraine.

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

But so many people are afraid of widening the war. It’s a risk, but one worth taking, and I think a small one. They wouldn’t dare attack any NATO country while they’re bogged down in Ukraine. We just must avoid attacking them. They’ll bitch and moan, but not take any real action, absent a serious threat to the integrity of Russia itself.

And I told Sherrod Brown as much. Really, we just might get rid of the evil empire and possibly their nukes on the cheap. It's well worth the investment. Surely the US defense industry is pushing for this too.

Perhaps some of the thinking is to show China we are not taking our eye off them for an instant or depleting stocks by any appreciable amount and we're going to take care of Russia at the same time.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

I don't think there is a steep learning curve on many of these systems. Especially if they are designed for US Army enlisted personnel to operate. This is a trend I watched over my 23 years in the navy; shorter training time, robust systems, minimal maintenance, ease of operation.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

Not going to happen.

Russia has full propaganda hold on its people. They think they're on a righteous quest to rescue Russians from massacres by NATO and evil westerners. No amount of sanctions or even losses will change that. If Ukraine against all odds starts to push them back, or there is a stalemate, Putin still has the option to declare martial law and mobilize reservists. I think the Russian people would go along with that just as they have with everything else.

In between the warmongers and peaceniks, there are many (a majority perhaps) who live their lives in their authoritarian society with their eyes cast down. They know they are kept in the dark and fed shit information. They do and say what they need to get along in their communities. But they are ready.

 

[ZiprHead]

Twitter video

The defense continues. Soldiers of Azov Regiment ambushed a Russian convoy in #Mariupol. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWarmari

 

[ZiprHead]