How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

 

[Harry Bosch]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

Well, I think (and hope) that his eventual downfall will be that he thinks that he doesn't answer to anyone. If any western politician started a war of choice; then had their asses handed to them by a smaller force; and was facing financial ruin - they'd be thrown out of office!

 

[Copernicus]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

I don't think that FOP is what constrains efforts. It is FONW (fear of Nuclear War). And that is a very legitimate fear to have. Putin is a thug, and thugs can be dangerous when cornered.

 

[crazyfingers]

It's a lopsided situation.

Putin knows, or should know, that Biden isn't crazy and wouldn't try shooting off some Nukes.

We don't know that Putin isn't crazy enough to do it.

 

[steve_bank]

I watched an interview with a Soviet era KGB agent living in the USA. He describes Putin s a traditional Russian mystcal leader who sees himself in the line of Russian conquerors.

A video clip was shown of a head of a Russian security service speaking before Putin. Analogous to say the head of the FBI or CIA.

Putin was sitting on an elevated platform looking down. As the man spoke Putin got ang and yelled at him. The man trembled and cowered. According to the Russian in the interview the man began stting information conartry to Putin's view, cowered, the said exactly what Puti wanted to her.

It is all about how history will view Putin, at least in Putin's head.

Look at a map of Russia and border states. Russia is huge. The idea of going to war to anex such a reltively small Ukraine makes snes only if yiu look at Putin as a self imagined conqueror of the past. The glory and excitement of power and conquest.

 

[Harry Bosch]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

I don't think that FOP is what constrains efforts. It is FONW (fear of Nuclear War). And that is a very legitimate fear to have. Putin is a thug, and thugs can be dangerous when cornered.

The sad part here is that there's no reason for Putin to feel cornered. He started the war. If he withdrew his troops, to their country of origin, fighting over. Tout suite. Only a sick deprived person could consider himself cornered just because his imperialistic nature is being challenged.

 

[Elixir]

The sad part here is that there's no reason for Putin to feel cornered. He started the war. If he withdrew his troops, to their country of origin, fighting over. Tout suite. Only a sick deprived person could consider himself cornered just because his imperialistic nature is being challenged.

I think you meant depraved... right. Pootey acts crazy. On purpose IMHO.

Putin knows, or should know, that Biden isn't crazy

Maybe Biden should be acting a little crazier, just to put some doubt in Pootey's corrupt mind.

I don't think that FOP is what constrains efforts. It is FONW

True.... but that is a distinction without a real difference. I doubt that any potential successor to Pootey would generate that same fear.

 

[Copernicus]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

I don't think that FOP is what constrains efforts. It is FONW (fear of Nuclear War). And that is a very legitimate fear to have. Putin is a thug, and thugs can be dangerous when cornered.

The sad part here is that there's no reason for Putin to feel cornered. He started the war. If he withdrew his troops, to their country of origin, fighting over. Tout suite. Only a sick deprived person could consider himself cornered just because his imperialistic nature is being challenged.

The problem now though is that it's too late for him to simply withdraw, because he has already pushed his country into committing horrible atrocities and suffering massive losses in soldiers and equipment. He could withdraw and end the war, but he would likely lose power and possibly be killed for what he did. It would not just shame him publicly, but all of those people who believed his lies or strongly supported his war. The military would still feel a need to cover up the incompetence and the atrocities. Maybe barbos, who has been largely silent during this mess (except for a brief interlude to continue selling the war), would come back to take back all of the things he said, but I doubt it. So Putin continues to escalate, hoping desperately that he can get something to save face that would allow him to finally end one of the worst, most shameful blunders in Russian history.

 

[steve_bank]

Our politics are crippled by the republican fear of Trump.

I expect Putin is mostly risk-reward. His only concern with Biden and NATO is what the threshold is for a direct response.

 

[TV and credit cards]

When you are powerless and have few prospects, comfort, security, and stability become most important. This is your compensation for the loss of your rights and freedoms. Law, morality, and logic are not part of your world. You may well know your government is doing wrong but is it worth the price you'll pay for speaking out? Go along and get along. But even this has its limits. When the mood of the people is such that they no longer walk with their eyes cast down but the police do, it will be time.

Conformity of the Russian people.

Are the thousands of mothers grieving for their sons enough to remove the mask of conformity? An entire nation feeling the effects of sanctions? If this were happening slowly, perhaps the Russian people would adjust and accept. But it's not. This is hitting hard and fast. Unemployment, missing sons, no more western niceties.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Having gotten used to the fact that in Russia anything can happen to anyone at any moment, people have learned to rejoice at the very fact that today it did not happen to them.

From the above link I think this is the main dynamic operating in Russia. There isn't any courage left in the population. Courage has been replaced by fear.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

to be frank, we aren't doing enough

It is distressing that FOP (fear of Putin) constrains our efforts to constrain Pootey.
Why is he not constrained by fear of American/European retaliation?
Something is wrong there …

Because he knows we aren't going to go beyond the proxy war level.

Both sides have been very careful to avoid any direct exchange of fire. Direct fire has only happened when someone was caught poking around in the other's territory and it has never been returned. All combat has involved a proxy on at least one side. We aren't going to change that--we'll arm Ukraine but we won't send in US troops, nor will US units fire on Russian units. Likewise, Russian units won't fire on US units--they no doubt hate our planes over Poland but they're not going to do anything about them, either, other than jammers.

 

[Jayjay]

Russian General Lets Slip Secret Plan to Invade New Country

The Russian military now says the official plan is to create a land corridor all the way along Ukraine’s coast to Moldova, where another border is under threat.

www.thedailybeast.com

Told you so. It was never just about Donbas, but annexing the entire Black Sea coastline.

And who thinks that if Russia gets a supply line to Transnistria, it would be satisfied with that tiny sliver and not try to get more land from Moldova next?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Russian General Lets Slip Secret Plan to Invade New Country

The Russian military now says the official plan is to create a land corridor all the way along Ukraine’s coast to Moldova, where another border is under threat.

www.thedailybeast.com

Told you so. It was never just about Donbas, but annexing the entire Black Sea coastline.

They wanted all of Ukraine. Coastline appears to be Plan B-2.

And who thinks that if Russia gets a supply line to Transnistria, it would be satisfied with that tiny sliver and not try to get more land from Moldova next?

The trouble becomes Russia is right next Ukraine. And they are barely managing supply lines with the best possible logistics. Running stuff down to enforce occupation of Moldova would be very hard. But Russia is gonna Russia it seems.

 

[Elixir]

This might bear on our response to Pootey’s invasion.
Apparently this is not the best year to be an oligarch. Did these guys look at Pootey the wrong way, or what?

“Two Russian oligarchs were found dead this week alongside their family in luxurious homes in Russia and Spain, with the two cases discovered within 24 hours of each other.
Both deaths are believed by police to be cases of murder-suicide, but the evidence supporting these theories is muddled by the fact that the events happened so close together, with the two oligarchs the last of four who have been found to have committed suicide since the beginning of the year.”

“Found to have”… hmmm.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russian General Lets Slip Secret Plan to Invade New Country

The Russian military now says the official plan is to create a land corridor all the way along Ukraine’s coast to Moldova, where another border is under threat.

www.thedailybeast.com

Told you so. It was never just about Donbas, but annexing the entire Black Sea coastline.

And who thinks that if Russia gets a supply line to Transnistria, it would be satisfied with that tiny sliver and not try to get more land from Moldova next?

Yep. Russia is going to keep going. They get billions of dollars each day from their oil/gas sales that they use to hire merks and continue their war effort. Putler doesn't care about throwing his unmotivated/poorly trained army into war. Secondly, Putler has had a big head start. He's been planning this invasion for several years. He's built up his military supplies. Yes, Nato has awakened and is united. However, the supply chain is hampering development of more weapons. I'm hearing that we're almost out of Javelins and stingers. It could take another 3 years to get it ramped up again due to supply chain. We have to keep the arms flowing to Eastern Europe. Future peace depends on Ukrainians destroying as many Russian means of war as possible.

 

[steve_bank]

That Russia wanted a military land route to Crimea was known a ways back. Russia had a lease on the base which coud have been revoked or not renewed.

Crimea - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

After the Revolution of Dignity and the flight of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from Kyiv on 21 February 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated to colleagues that "we must start working on returning Crimea to Russia."[58] Within days, unmarked forces with local militias took over the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as occupying several localities in Kherson Oblast on the Arabat Spit, which is geographically a part of Crimea. A 2014 referendum on merging Crimea with Russia was supported by 96.7% of voters with a 83.1% turnout according to official counts, although it was boycotted by many loyal to Ukraine and denounced as illegitimate by Western governments.[12][13][59] The United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution declaring the vote illegal and invalid.[60][61][62] Putin signed a treaty of accession with the self-declared Republic of Crimea, annexing it into the Russian Federation as two federal subjects: the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol. Though Russia had control over the peninsula, sovereignty was disputed as Ukraine and the majority of the international community consider the annexation illegal,[63] as was shown by the United Nations General Assembly adopting a non-binding resolution calling upon states not to recognise changes to the integrity of Ukraine.[64][60] A range of international sanctions were imposed against Russia and a number of named individuals as a result of the events of 2014.[citation needed]

Sevastopol Naval Base - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Sevastopol Naval Base (Russian: Севастопольская военно-морская база; Ukrainian: Севастопольська військово-морська база) is a naval base located in Sevastopol, in the disputed Crimean peninsula. The base is used by the Russian Navy, and it is the main base of the Black Sea Fleet.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, the claim of the now Russian Navy for use of the naval base was initially lost (since Crimea was

transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954, the base was on the soil of the new post-Soviet state Ukraine). From then on, Russia paid an annual lease to Ukraine for the use of the base until 2014, as regulated by the Partition Treaty on the Black Sea Fleet and the Kharkiv Pact.[3][4] Since the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, the naval base is again under Russian control.[5]

Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Black Sea Fleet (Russian: Черноморский флот, Chernomorsky flot) is the fleet of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean Sea.

The fleet traces its history to its founding by Prince Potemkin on May 13, 1783. The Russian SFSR inherited the fleet in 1918; with the founding of the Soviet Union in 1922, it became part of the Soviet Navy. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Black Sea Fleet was partitioned with Ukraine and the Russian Federation receiving title to most of the fleet and its vessels in 1997.

The Black Sea Fleet has its official primary headquarters and facilities in the Russian-occupied city of Sevastopol in Crimea, a de jure territory of Ukraine. The remainder of the fleet's facilities are based in various locations on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, including Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast and Crimea. The current commander, Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Osipov, has held his position since May 2019.

 

[Jayjay]

This crap is going to last for years. Scholz and his ilk in EU are more concerned about price of gas than shortening the war.

 

[Harry Bosch]

This crap is going to last for years. Scholz and his ilk in EU are more concerned about price of gas than shortening the war.

Agreed. It's not going to stop until we stop buying Russian oil.

Separate issue: Jay what is your opinion regarding Finland joining Nato? Finland and Sweden possibly joining NATO probably deserves its own thread.

 

[ZiprHead]

Putin Accompanied by Doctors, Thyroid Cancer Surgeon on Sochi Trips – Report - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin dismissed Proekt's investigation as “fiction and untruth.”

www.themoscowtimes.com

The Kremlin denied Friday that President Vladimir Putin had undergone surgery for thyroid cancer after an investigative report raised suspicion over a presidential hospital surgeon’s frequent visits to his Black Sea residence.

The report said a large group of doctors including a thyroid cancer surgeon had accompanied Putin on his trips to his residence in the resort city of Sochi from 2016-2019.

The Russian investigative outlet Proekt matched the dates of Putin’s official visits to Sochi or unexplained disappearances from public view with local hotel accommodation contracts published on the government procurement website to make the connection. An average of five doctors had accompanied Putin in 2016-17 and nine doctors in 2019, it said.