How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

In America, public opinion can change things. In Russia, it cannot

Maybe not directly. General discontent can be disregarded, but when economic interests are threatened by social upheaval the rich have the most to lose. Problem is, Russians have been upheavaling for centuries, and have yet to realize any capacity for self government. They always need or want or at least allow, a dictator, preferably a violent one with low regard for human lives other than their own.

I don’t get the appeal.

I think that public opinion in Russia is very important to its leaders, and that is why they go to such extreme lengths to manage it through censorship, intimidation, and propaganda. The same is true of China. As for the character of the Russian people, my impression is that they are really not all that different from Americans, and those who immigrate here seem to fit in quite well. They aren't more or less criminal. The difference, IMO, has to do with the existing social institutions and traditions that shape group behavior, not individual character. Russians are even more similar to Ukrainians than Americans in their group behavior, and I think we all have a great deal of admiration for the courage and fortitude of Ukrainians. Russians are just in a much worse place when it comes to changing the social barriers to progress. Ukraine was lucky to get a leader like Zelensky at the head of the government, and Russia very unlucky to get Putin. America was very lucky to get Obama, and very unlucky to get Trump. It happens.

 

[SLD]

Ukraine does have a bleak future indeed, but they can hold on and fight these fuckers to a standstill. According to your website, they’ve repelled four attacks today.

The key is supplies, and those may be running low. The US is supplying 40,000 artillery shells. Sheeesh! That’s enough for a few days at most! Not nearly enough. The west must ensure at least 10,000 shells a day. We also need to supply them with tanks, high altitude air defense, and even more MiGs.

The problem is that they would need training to use western equipment. And there's a limited amount of old Soviet and Russian stock available. Even the Slovakian (or some other country's) MiGs are unusable, because they've been fitted with NATO avionics.

But shells... those should be standard enough. They need a steady supply.

This is a golden opportunity to draw the Russians into a quagmire, and bleed them white. We could utterly transform the strategic environment in our favor. Putin could fall, and real democratic reforms could take place in Russia. They could then consider joining NATO instead of fighting against it. China would not like that.

Not going to happen.

Russia has full propaganda hold on its people. They think they're on a righteous quest to rescue Russians from massacres by NATO and evil westerners. No amount of sanctions or even losses will change that. If Ukraine against all odds starts to push them back, or there is a stalemate, Putin still has the option to declare martial law and mobilize reservists. I think the Russian people would go along with that just as they have with everything else.

Sorry for the late reply. But I was talking with a friend last night about this. Would the Russian people rise up? Probably not. At least not until things got really bad economically and there were military reverses. That’s what it took in 1905. But compare Putin to the Nazi leader. Hitler remained very popular up until almost the very end of the war. He retained the support of the people and even most of the military despite the setbacks on the battlefield.

But throughout his reign, we know of 42 assassination attempts. Many, many military officers were disgusted with what was happening and how the war was destroying Germany. Anyone of them could have succeeded. He was almost blown up in November 1939, right after he had achieved victory in Poland. It would have worked had Hitler not left the podium earlier than planned. Then there was the famous liquor bomb on the fuhrer’s plane that froze unfortunately. And Valkyrie almost succeeded. So close.

I just wouldn’t be surprised if many in Russia’s military feel the same way. In fact I’d be surprised if there weren’t. One Russian general born in Ukraine almost broke down in front of Americans recently. Whether they can act and whether it will be successful is another thing.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like Pootey is taking steps to cleanse the inner circle. Killing off a half dozen power brokers and a few of their families should give at least a little pause to anyone thinking of trying to remove him.

6 Russian oligarchs have died in alleged suicides since start of 2022 - National | Globalnews.ca

Many of the Russian oligarchs who have died in alleged suicides so far in 2022 were also found alongside the bodies of their family members.

globalnews.ca

Last week, within 48 hours of each other, two Russian oligarchs were found dead alongside their families in what investigators are labelling murder-suicides. Since the start of 2022, four other Russia-connected oligarchs have mysteriously died by suicide.

OTOH it’s just business as usual:

In 2017, USA Today released a report that found that 38 high-profile Russians died or went missing in a three-year time span.

 

[steve_bank]

The Stalinist model.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think that public opinion in Russia is very important to its leaders, and that is why they go to such extreme lengths to manage it through censorship, intimidation, and propaganda. The same is true of China. As for the character of the Russian people, my impression is that they are really not all that different from Americans, and those who immigrate here seem to fit in quite well. They aren't more or less criminal. The difference, IMO, has to do with the existing social institutions and traditions that shape group behavior, not individual character. Russians are even more similar to Ukrainians than Americans in their group behavior, and I think we all have a great deal of admiration for the courage and fortitude of Ukrainians. Russians are just in a much worse place when it comes to changing the social barriers to progress. Ukraine was lucky to get a leader like Zelensky at the head of the government, and Russia very unlucky to get Putin. America was very lucky to get Obama, and very unlucky to get Trump. It happens.

Public opinion is important to any national leader. The difference in the Russian police state is that this managing of public opinion includes murder, torture and terrorism. The propaganda must be working because there is an incessant stream of Putin apologists always explaining why this modern day Hitler is a legitimate national leader. He isn't. NATO isn't a threat to Russia, Putin is a threat to Russia. and NATO is a threat to Putin. That's all we ever need to say about any threats from NATO.

I wish our free democratic national leaders would start using plain language with the Russian dictator to his face. That would be leadership. Instead we lick his balls. Baffles the fuck out of me.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Everybody forgot Bucha?
Well, I have not been following that story for a while. Apparently it was proven that satellite images were fake. So no 3 weeks old bodies on the road, they are all from April 1. And you need to thank Ukrainian programmer who can determine a date of the picture by analyzing shadows. And then Turkey being a NATO member got real pictures with no bodies.

This doesn't pass the laugh test.

Turkey doesn't operate spy satellites, nor do they operate any of the commercial imaging sats. Thus they have no way to have obtained real pictures. Thus any claim based on them getting real images is obviously false.

And, yes, on a high enough resolution picture you can determine the date and time based on shadows assuming you know the location of the image. Take any tall object whose shadow is on the ground, pretend it's a sundial. The angle of the shadow gives the horizontal angle to the sun, the length of the shadow gives the vertical angle to the sun. Horizontal angle to the sun gives time, although you'll need the longitude to correct this from solar time to universal time. Latitude and vertical angle gives one possible date on the summer and winter equinox, two possible dates on any other days. The two answers will be the same number of days from the equinoxes, thus the second solution here is obviously irrelevant. You have shown the scientific knowledge to understand this before, why are you questioning it?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Buddy, I'm sorry to tell you but the Russian news is about as reliable as dog shit. No one believes it. And of course Turkey didn't buy those lies either. People in the west aren't so gullible. And deep down, you know that your media is lying to you. Putler controls the Russian media. With all the death and misery that Putler is causing, I don't know how Russians sleep at night.

To know what your government is doing to the population of its neighbor; the rape, torture, murder and starvation of innocent people? They lie to themselves. Anything less would be too psychologically traumatizing. Well, to anyone with a conscience.

I used to think barbos was a victim of a lifetime of propaganda. With all the evidence that has been made available here, I no longer believe this.

The sufficiently faithful can't comprehend blasphemous arguments against their position. I've seen it over and over with various faiths--and not just religious ones.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Looks like Pootey is taking steps to cleanse the inner circle. Killing off a half dozen power brokers and a few of their families should give at least a little pause to anyone thinking of trying to remove him.

But it also gives a lot of incentive to those who think they might be next to try to take him out before he takes them out.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Looks like Pootey is taking steps to cleanse the inner circle. Killing off a half dozen power brokers and a few of their families should give at least a little pause to anyone thinking of trying to remove him.

But it also gives a lot of incentive to those who think they might be next to try to take him out before he takes them out.

On what evidence do you base that claim? Sounds like wishful thinking.

 

[barbos]

Turkey has access to the original high resolution picture and they published it.
Satellite image Company put fake image out for public, but NATO countries, of course, have real ones.

In other news evacuated civilians say there is a general among mercenaries at AziovSteel.

 

[barbos]

Everybody forgot Bucha?
Well, I have not been following that story for a while. Apparently it was proven that satellite images were fake. So no 3 weeks old bodies on the road, they are all from April 1. And you need to thank Ukrainian programmer who can determine a date of the picture by analyzing shadows. And then Turkey being a NATO member got real pictures with no bodies.

Plus someone (ukrainians) were using WW1 ammunition (really that old) which is not really banned but frowned upon. Lots of civilians ended up with flechettes in their bodies.

Sorry guys, all these civilians died shortly after or during russian forces leaving, when your nazis shelled the town with WW2 mines.

What do you have to say for yourself?
NATO collectively flat out lied about satellite images, only Turkey said "Fuck it!, we are out!"

Buddy, I'm sorry to tell you but the Russian news is about as reliable as dog shit. No one believes it. And of course Turkey didn't buy those lies either. People in the west aren't so gullible. And deep down, you know that your media is lying to you. Putler controls the Russian media. With all the death and misery that Putler is causing, I don't know how Russians sleep at night.

That's not russian news.
That's ukrainian news, fletchettes is from ..... them. Shadow analysis is from ukrainian experts and real pictures are from NATO member Turkey. And the whole bunch of secondary evidence from ...... France Press and other western outlets. Sat images ARE fake. They can't be real, 3 weeks in +15C temperature is not consistent with the state of the bodies on April 4

Sorry dude, you are the bad guys.
And why is it even news to you? You have been flat out lying for decades.
The only thing Western news kinda did not lie was your internal affairs, because it's much harder. Foreign affairs is easy to lie for you, nobody pays attention for more than couple of weeks.
Seriusly, who remembers Kharkov City Hall bombing now? Nobody. Same is here.

 

[barbos]

NATO collectively flat out lied about satellite images,

You sole proof of this starts with the word "apparently". Your desperation is showing, you might need to take a breath.

Desperation is all yours if all you can do is to harp on my word choice.
I used the word "apparently" because I posted it minutes after reading the 2 weeks old news about this fake being busted. I knew since the beginning it was fake simply because bodies were not 3 weeks old. But I did not expect it would be so thoroughly busted.

 

[Patooka]

Desperation is all yours if all you can do is to harp on my word choice.

Maybe I was being too subtle. You haven't provided and links to media outlets. And to save you the bother, you need to understand that I dismiss unsourced 40 minute youtube clips out of hand.

 

[barbos]

In other more light news, there is this chat roulette thing where random people talk to each other. So there is a lot of russians talking to ukrainians. Even ukrainian soldiers currently fighting to random russians.

But the one type of conversation I found enlightening is between russian apparently school history teachers and ukrainian ..... school girls. That was something.
The shit ukrainian nazi regime was putting into heads of children is amazing.

Desperation is all yours if all you can do is to harp on my word choice.

Maybe I was being too subtle. You haven't provided and links to media outlets. And to save you the bother, you need to understand that I dismiss unsourced 40 minute youtube clips out of hand.

You can find them yourself. Some in turkish, some compilations are in english. Best compilation is in russian youtube so it will be useless for you since you don't trust russian or even ukrainian youtubers.

Sorry, dude, your media and (!!!) government are lying to you.

 

[Patooka]

Sad.

 

[barbos]

Sad.

Indeed.

Reminded me that story with chemical attacks in Syria. BBC (pedophile covering company) put out a video, which was clearly a fake/staged. Then RT pointed it out. Then what do you think British did?
They banned RT. And most hilarious part is, they did not even try to dispute that video was fake, they tacitly admitted it was fake/staged. And how do you ask they managed to ban RT over it? They said, RT report was misleading in the sense that they claimed BBC staged that video. So you see, they knew they were taking footage of a staged scene which has nothing to with reality but they (BBC) did not do it, they merely took a video.

And here we are, you still believe Western news is to be trusted.

 

[Patooka]

And here we are, you still believe Western news is to be trusted.

Nope. And yet you still believe "Western" (ie, non Russian) media is some sort of unified bloc.

 

[barbos]

And here we are, you still believe Western news is to be trusted.

Nope. And yet you still believe "Western" (ie, non Russian) media is some sort of unified bloc.

Well, minority is truthful and reliable but irrelevant because MSM rules and they are 100% liars.

 

[barbos]

Moreover, when Senile in Chief declared Russia responsible for Bucha, Pentagon quietly told him "Mr. President, hold you horses, we have no proof one way or another"
Did it stop garbage from MSM? of course not, why would it?
Then some journalists tried to ask Pentagon all kind of questions like "What should we do about Bucha? Is not it time to intervene?" and Pentagon kept giving "We have no data" How come they have no data? MSM has it, but Pentagon does not?

 

[barbos]

But then one ukrainian instagram cunt, took a picture of herself as if she was a victim of the war or something. Your stupid piece of shit media appreciated it and reposted it mercilessly. That until cunt appeared alive and well saying "Well, it was my artistic something" crap. MSM said nothing.