The predominant factor in black deaths by police is more crimes commited - not racism

[Axulus]

Blacks commit far more violent crimes. They make up 13% of the population, but committed 52% of the homicides from 1980-2008. 38.5% of arrests for violent crime in general (rape, murder, robbery, manslaughter) were black, about 3 times their population proportion. Remember this proportion, it will be important for later.

Are the greater numbers of arrests due to racism? Generally no, as concluded by academic studies. The reason? Arrest rates match pretty closely to victimization surveys, suggesting that racism is only a tiny factor, if a factor at all. There is no good evidence here that racism is anything close to significant.

See the full analysis of the data here:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-black-americans-commit-crime/19439

Now, how many more blacks die at the hands of police? About 3 per million individuals per year for blacks and 1 per million per year for whites, a 3 to 1 rate compared to whites. Now remember that violence crime arrest ratio? Matches almost exactly.

Data for deaths at hands of police by race here:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-black-americans-killed-police/19423

 

[Davka]

Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

 

[Axulus]

Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

Yes Davka, acknowledging the facts and not engaging in antiintellectual politically correct data denial is racist. And yes, the people who dismiss such antintellectualism and data denial are just all part of the racism, not because you are wrong about the facts.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

He presented his argument, with data that can be examined and challenged, and instead of making some sort of counter argument (which I presume wouldn't be hard to do), you just call him a racist. I'm afraid he is the one who looks more reasonable here.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Axulus, other data has shown that crime increases with poverty, and that poor white neighbourhoods are as crime ridden as balck ones. Have you come across any data that controls for wealth, and compares whites and blacks? Perhaps, even if your argument above is true, racism still plays a role, in keeping black people poor, and thereby keeping crime stats higher for black people. Just a thought.

 

[Axulus]

Axulus, other data has shown that crime increases with poverty, and that poor white neighbourhoods are as crime ridden as balck ones. Have you come across any data that controls for wealth, and compares whites and blacks?

Yep, take a look at my first link. It discusses that and provides links to studies. The data is inconclusive on whether SES fully explains the difference in crime rates. It is certainly a significant factor. Another hypothesis is that black communities have a more violent subculture compared to whites, and that this is also a contributing factor, but it is a difficult hypothesis to test. A final, very controversial, hypothesis is that blacks have a greater genetic predisposition to commit violent crimes, but this hypothesis isn't very well supported by the data, and even entertaining the idea intellectually will immediately get one branded a racist, although max on this board does subscribe to this theory. I don't completely dismiss this idea (I'm driven by data and logic, regardless of the political correctness of it), as there are some possible mechanisms (black men have higher testosterone levels, for example, but such is a weak causal factor in violent crimes).

You are correct that racism is almost certainly a factor in contributing to the poverty rate of that group. However, it still doesn't support the idea of prevalent or significant racism in the police force, the political topic of late in the US, driven almost exclusively by anecdotes and misleading statistics that don't properly control for other variables.

 

[Davka]

Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

He presented his argument, with data that can be examined and challenged, and instead of making some sort of counter argument (which I presume wouldn't be hard to do), you just call him a racist. I'm afraid he is the one who looks more reasonable here.

Pigs look reasonable too, but if you wrestle them you both get muddy - and the pig likes it.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Axulus,

In all this data that you are driven by, are there any surveys of black citizens who have had encounters with the police and what those citizens think about those encounters.

 

[barbos]

Axulus, other data has shown that crime increases with poverty

Crime increases with wealth too

 

[Axulus]

Axulus,

In all this data that you are driven by, are there any surveys of black citizens who have had encounters with the police and what those citizens think about those encounters.

This data and analysis looked specifically at racism being a contributing factor to black deaths at the hands of police, the political topic of late which is claimed or assumed by the protesters. The data does not support that claim. I don't deny that racism plays a part in influencing police interactions with blacks, but the higher crime rates is the far more significant/predominant factor in all of this. Furthermore, surveys can't tell you objective apples to apples comparisons of the magnitude of the discrepancy of police interactions with blacks vs. whites. You yourself have said the black community is very mistrusting of the police, so mightn't that influence perceptions of encounters and therefore bias survey results, as psychological science suggests? This is _not_ to say there is room for significant improvement in the way that the police interacts with all citizens, and that there is some additional concern with the way it interacts with the black community. Just that the claims of racism seem to be over-exaggerated or, in some cases (deaths by police), most likely wrong. The magnitude of the racism that the protesters and the black community are claiming do not seem to be supported by the best objective data we have available (which isn't to say that this means or that I believe there is zero racism. There definitely is some).

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He presented his argument, with data that can be examined and challenged, and instead of making some sort of counter argument (which I presume wouldn't be hard to do), you just call him a racist. I'm afraid he is the one who looks more reasonable here.

Pigs look reasonable too, but if you wrestle them you both get muddy - and the pig likes it.

Yes, we all know those journalists over at the public channel 4 are all a bunch of racist pigs. You couldn't tell a racist apart from your left foot.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

There's nothing racist about his post, just some inconvenient reality. Pointing out inconvenient reality is not racism.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Axulus, other data has shown that crime increases with poverty, and that poor white neighbourhoods are as crime ridden as balck ones. Have you come across any data that controls for wealth, and compares whites and blacks?

Yep, take a look at my first link. It discusses that and provides links to studies. The data is inconclusive on whether SES fully explains the difference in crime rates. It is certainly a significant factor. Another hypothesis is that black communities have a more violent subculture compared to whites, and that this is also a contributing factor, but it is a difficult hypothesis to test. A final, very controversial, hypothesis is that blacks have a greater genetic predisposition to commit violent crimes, but this hypothesis isn't very well supported by the data, and even entertaining the idea intellectually will immediately get one branded a racist, although max on this board does subscribe to this theory. I don't completely dismiss this idea (I'm driven by data and logic, regardless of the political correctness of it), as there are some possible mechanisms (black men have higher testosterone levels, for example, but such is a weak causal factor in violent crimes).

I don't think it's a matter of a more violent sub-group, but rather a greater percentage that are in that violent sub-group.

You are correct that racism is almost certainly a factor in contributing to the poverty rate of that group. However, it still doesn't support the idea of prevalent or significant racism in the police force, the political topic of late in the US, driven almost exclusively by anecdotes and misleading statistics that don't properly control for other variables.

I don't see the evidence that racism is causing it. Once you look carefully at SES (more than just $, look at lifestyle--things like the age at which their mother had her *first* child) race basically drops out of the picture. Racism no doubt caused the initial situation with more poor blacks, I see no evidence that it perpetuates it.

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Axulus,

In all this data that you are driven by, are there any surveys of black citizens who have had encounters with the police and what those citizens think about those encounters.

Such a study would not produce good data. How an encounter with the police turns out is greatly colored by how you expect it to go.

 

[Axulus]

I don't see the evidence that racism is causing it. Once you look carefully at SES (more than just $, look at lifestyle--things like the age at which their mother had her *first* child) race basically drops out of the picture. Racism no doubt caused the initial situation with more poor blacks, I see no evidence that it perpetuates it.

There's good evidence that there is still a bit of unconscious racism involved with employment and promotion decisions by managers, thus contributing to their poverty. It could also be said that past racism caused less wealth/assets to be accumulated by black families (lowering inheritances and the like) - which would be a contributing factor in some cases of lower SES.

 

[laughing dog]

Now, how many more blacks die at the hands of police? About 3 per million individuals per year for blacks and 1 per million per year for whites, a 3 to 1 rate compared to whites. Now remember that violence crime arrest ratio? Matches almost exactly.

Is the some sort of logical connection here that is unexplained? What does this latter ratio have to do with former ratio?

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Yep, take a look at my first link. It discusses that and provides links to studies. The data is inconclusive on whether SES fully explains the difference in crime rates. It is certainly a significant factor. Another hypothesis is that black communities have a more violent subculture compared to whites, and that this is also a contributing factor, but it is a difficult hypothesis to test. A final, very controversial, hypothesis is that blacks have a greater genetic predisposition to commit violent crimes, but this hypothesis isn't very well supported by the data, and even entertaining the idea intellectually will immediately get one branded a racist, although max on this board does subscribe to this theory. I don't completely dismiss this idea (I'm driven by data and logic, regardless of the political correctness of it), as there are some possible mechanisms (black men have higher testosterone levels, for example, but such is a weak causal factor in violent crimes).

I don't think it's a matter of a more violent sub-group, but rather a greater percentage that are in that violent sub-group.

You are correct that racism is almost certainly a factor in contributing to the poverty rate of that group. However, it still doesn't support the idea of prevalent or significant racism in the police force, the political topic of late in the US, driven almost exclusively by anecdotes and misleading statistics that don't properly control for other variables.

I don't see the evidence that racism is causing it. Once you look carefully at SES (more than just $, look at lifestyle--things like the age at which their mother had her *first* child) race basically drops out of the picture. Racism no doubt caused the initial situation with more poor blacks, I see no evidence that it perpetuates it.

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Axulus,

In all this data that you are driven by, are there any surveys of black citizens who have had encounters with the police and what those citizens think about those encounters.

Such a study would not produce good data. How an encounter with the police turns out is greatly colored by how you expect it to go.

Loren, you really don't read what you type do you?

 

[Axulus]

Now, how many more blacks die at the hands of police? About 3 per million individuals per year for blacks and 1 per million per year for whites, a 3 to 1 rate compared to whites. Now remember that violence crime arrest ratio? Matches almost exactly.

Is the some sort of logical connection here that is unexplained? What does this latter ratio have to do with former ratio?

If a group is involved in ~39% of the violent crime arrests in the country, is it any surprise that this group suffers ~32% of the deaths at the hands of police (link and link)? Is it really that difficult to understand? The ratio I put forth was just another way to present that same data. Not only that, but, according to Athena, the black community mistrusts the police. Mightn't that increase the odds of hostility and resistance with encounters with police for any given encounter (a significant factor in whether or not force is used by the police), further undermining the claims of racism?

 

[Axulus]

Something else to consider: about 3 per million blacks are killed at the hands of the police each year. In 2013, 83 per million law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty. Being a law enforcement officer is far bigger danger to ones life than the police are to blacks. Not really relevant to the discussion of racism in the police force, but just thought it was worth putting in perspective. If blacks are afraid of getting killed by the police (especially if they aren't involved in violent criminal activity), then the fear does not appear to be very rational compared to many other risks in life. Furthermore, if it is valid for blacks to fear for their lives from police, wouldn't it be far more valid for police officers to fear for their lives in the line of duty, on the order of 28x?

This is not to say that there isn't improvement to be had in the way police handle encounters with all citizens.

 

[barbos]

Something else to consider: about 3 per million blacks are killed at the hands of the police each year. In 2013, 83 per million law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty. Being a law enforcement officer is far bigger danger to ones life than the police are to blacks. Not really relevant to the discussion of racism in the police force, but just thought it was worth putting in perspective. If blacks are afraid of getting killed by the police (especially if they aren't involved in violent criminal activity), then the fear does not appear to be very rational compared to many other risks in life. Furthermore, if it is valid for blacks to fear for their lives from police, wouldn't it be far more valid for police officers to fear for their lives in the line of duty, on the order of 28x?

This is not to say that there isn't improvement to be had in the way police handle encounters with all citizens.

Interesting, but fair comparison should be overall death while black rate, not just from the police.
What is more dangerous being a policeman or black?
Anyway, I agree, statistically speaking police killing is overblown. But I still think situation can be improved in terms of unnecessary deaths.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

What does any of this have to do with a twelve year old being shot after a 2 second encounter with police still in their cruiser?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't see the evidence that racism is causing it. Once you look carefully at SES (more than just $, look at lifestyle--things like the age at which their mother had her *first* child) race basically drops out of the picture. Racism no doubt caused the initial situation with more poor blacks, I see no evidence that it perpetuates it.

There's good evidence that there is still a bit of unconscious racism involved with employment and promotion decisions by managers, thus contributing to their poverty. It could also be said that past racism caused less wealth/assets to be accumulated by black families (lowering inheritances and the like) - which would be a contributing factor in some cases of lower SES.

This is the first time I've heard the first claim.


I agree with the second but this is the effects of past racism, not current racism. Anti-discrimination measures will do nothing about it. Since I'm much more interested in how to fix it than in placing blame the current cause is what I care about.

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Now, how many more blacks die at the hands of police? About 3 per million individuals per year for blacks and 1 per million per year for whites, a 3 to 1 rate compared to whites. Now remember that violence crime arrest ratio? Matches almost exactly.

Is the some sort of logical connection here that is unexplained? What does this latter ratio have to do with former ratio?

What he's showing is that black or white, your odds of being shot by the police if you are a violent criminal are about equal.

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Loren, you really don't read what you type do you?

So you have no idea of how to rebut what I said?